Beast from the East?

[tree monkey]

4 hours ago, matty40s said:

He he, that's what you get for looking at a single days run....

It's getting very grumpy over there at the moment I must say

[matty40s]

11 minutes ago, tree monkey said:

It's getting very grumpy over there at the moment I must say

Lockdown, beer o clock, might have to go and wind someone up....❄️

[JJPHG]

I did say in my OP NEXT WEEK not now, and yes Matty you are quite right, making judgements on a single run is, well silly.  That's why I didn't post anything until the UKMO mesoscale model (which a old colleague at the MO has kindly given me access too) and the ECMWF ensemble (which uses different dynamic) both pointed in favour of its development.  Sorry for any geekistic language I will endeavour to colloquialise my posts in future. 

 

[Dr Bob]

13 hours ago, JJPHG said:

I did say in my OP NEXT WEEK not now, and yes Matty you are quite right, making judgements on a single run is, well silly.  That's why I didn't post anything until the UKMO mesoscale model (which a old colleague at the MO has kindly given me access too) and the ECMWF ensemble (which uses different dynamic) both pointed in favour of its development.  Sorry for any geekistic language I will endeavour to colloquialise my posts in future. 

 

The weather forum has been pushing cold weather for weeks now and every single model run that shows cold has been received with an 'its nailed on we will have snow' and we havent had it.

In the last few days however, all of the major models do seem to be suggesting the wind going to the east from Sunday and a plunge in temperatures (barely reaching zero in the day for the south of England). I would say it is nailed on that we will get a number of very cold days from Sunday but the models do not agree how long this could last (2-3 days or 2-3 weeks) and it is certainly too early to link this to snow. The models are disagreeing on how many low pressures will come over the uk so precipitation is just a guess at the moment. My guess is that we are in for a very cold week next week with the canals freezing over but not a clue how much snow we could get. South of the M4 should be not as bad.

The thing that worries me is that the cold weather pattern being forecasted looks for the first time in 40 years to be similar to what we had in Feb 1978 when the easterlies kept it cold for 2 weeks and then a weather front came in from the south west and stalled over south wales dumping 3 foot of snow on us in Cardiff which was a right pain the butt.

I really hope this isnt going to be the same as we need to get these vacinations done and snow and ice is the last thing we need.

My advice is stock up on some food this week.

 

[roland elsdon]

We havent been shopping since 6 jan, so a trip to plague central ( daventry) will have to be done at 9pm , before the roads out of the village become impossible.

This house was not bought to live in.

[tree monkey]

14 hours ago, JJPHG said:

I did say in my OP NEXT WEEK not now, and yes Matty you are quite right, making judgements on a single run is, well silly.  That's why I didn't post anything until the UKMO mesoscale model (which a old colleague at the MO has kindly given me access too) and the ECMWF ensemble (which uses different dynamic) both pointed in favour of its development.  Sorry for any geekistic language I will endeavour to colloquialise my posts in future. 

 

I for one appreciate the heads up, I have no idea what you are talking about but I do appreciate it

 

Matty gave a similar warning a few years ago for a fairly major storm and he was spot on, work thought I was mad when I started to give dire warnings, 3 or so weeks later when we had finally finished the tidy up I wasn't smug at all

[Dr Bob]

3 hours ago, roland elsdon said:

We havent been shopping since 6 jan, so a trip to plague central ( daventry) will have to be done at 9pm , before the roads out of the village become impossible.

This house was not bought to live in.

When you live in a house you have loads of space to store food and frozen stuff.

When you live on a boat......................

 

Just been into daventry this affy, deserted. I think the plague levels are relatively low there now.......lower than Rugby.

[ditchcrawler]

The weather forecast on Anglia described it as maybe a mini beast

[matty40s]

Well its here, and if you havnt done anything you probably have 24 hours before it freezes good and proper, long term outlook is a low battering in from the West Thursday which will stall and drop copious amounts of white stuff to the areas in the West that havnt got it from the East....long term models are saying this MAY last for a while now.

[blackrose]

The bbc weather app says it will go sub-zero for about a week, then not quite as cold.

 

Blast from the east init.

[Idle Days]

Should I put the heating on? 

[Athy]

In West Anglia the forecast is for cold weather all week, becoming milder (in relative terms: maximum temperature exceeding 40 degrees) from next Sunday. No snow on most days, though. B.B.C. says we're supposed to have light snow now, but there isn't any.

[robtheplod]

A bit disappointing so far here in Wymondham (not far from Norwich) - must be the lightest snow fall I've ever seen - have to look hard for it.....    did it leap-frog over us?

[roland elsdon]

Projected rain followed by snow, blocked roads, power cuts and carnage, markedly absent this morning.  Roads  dry clean. Shorts or track bottoms on bike?

[Alan de Enfield]

35 minutes ago, Athy said:

In West Anglia the forecast is for cold weather all week, becoming milder (in relative terms: maximum temperature exceeding 40 degrees) from next Sunday. No snow on most days, though. B.B.C. says we're supposed to have light snow now, but there isn't any.

 

Presumably a typo, or,  you are not using celsius ?

[Athy]

4 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Presumably a typo.

Certainly not.

4 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

  you are not using celsius ?

I certainly am not.

(I never call it celsius anyway: centigrade is a much more appropriate term).

 

Having being brought up using fahrenheit, I think in it. I can work out how cold, say 5 degrees centigrade will feel , but I know instinctively what 40 degrees fahrenheit feels like.

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Athy

[bizzard]

Light snow here in Stortfod. Its curling in around from the east, we're just on the fringe at the mo. The website ''Realtime rainradar UK and Ireland'' shows how it moving realtime. It updates every 10 mins but not automatically, you have to click out of the site it then go back in. Metcheck have similar.

Edited February 7, 2021 by bizzard

[ditchcrawler]

31 minutes ago, Athy said:

Certainly not.

I certainly am not.

(I never call it celsius anyway: centigrade is a much more appropriate term).

 

Having being brought up using fahrenheit, I think in it. I can work out how cold, say 5 degrees centigrade will feel , but I know instinctively what 40 degrees fahrenheit feels like.

 

 

 

Is that measured on your 3/-  thermometer 

[Up-Side-Down]

1 minute ago, ditchcrawler said:

Is that measured on your 3/-  thermometer 

Two & six (it was Littlewoods)

[Alan de Enfield]

 

6d, (it was Woolworths)

[Up-Side-Down]

Just now, Alan de Enfield said:

 

6d, (it was Woolworths)

That's (one of) the Wonders of Woollies!

[Dr Bob]

We are looking forward to going curling on the canal later in the week. We have brushes but not sure what to use as curling stones. Any good ideas? Best I have got at the moment is a milk jug filled up with water and left out overnight.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Dr Bob

[Jon57]

3 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

We are looking forward to going curling on the canal later in the week. We have brushes but not sure what to use as curling stones. Any good ideas? Best I have got at the moment is a milk jug filled up with water and left out overnight.

Portapotty. Empty of course. ?

[Alan de Enfield]

4 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

We are looking forward to going curling on the canal later in the week. We have brushes but not sure what to use as curling stones. Any good ideas? Best I have got at the moment is a milk jug filled up with water and left out overnight.

 

Surely you have a few of theses scattered around the boat ?

 

Sand down and radius the edges, then, a smear of 'best budder' and away you go.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Alan de Enfield

[MoominPapa]

47 minutes ago, Athy said:

(I never call it celsius anyway: centigrade is a much more appropriate term).

 

Kelvin in the only true temperature unit.

 

I used to mix and match units as convenient. Since the Vera Lynn Fetishists co-opted units for political purposes (Metric Martyrs, etc) , I try and stick to Systeme Internationale units exclusively.

 

MP.