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JJPHG

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    133
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Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Elanora, Queensland, Australia
  • Interests
    Weather, Travel, learning new stuff

Previous Fields

  • Occupation
    None, Ex Meteorologist, Ex Project Manager
  • Boat Name
    Pipe Dream?
  • Boat Location
    Elanora, Queensland, Australia

Recent Profile Visitors

758 profile views
  1. I only got as far as Kilby Bridge (from Foxton direction) on my short trip back home in January. Moored up a few hundred metres short of the bridge and there was no trouble - very quiet.
  2. I had a similar miss fortune trying to sell a particular meteorological information system to Germany. The system was called MIST, harmless enough until we discovered in german it means crap, rubbish, shit etc
  3. I was in Hong Kong at the time so it was the other way round. Didn't see the actual landing but remember watching Neil Armstrong's bit whilst eating rich tea biscuits with butter on hmmmmm.
  4. Alas, as I am also an examiner for GP's progressing to their fellowship I can only say that in my own personal view (which of course does not reflect that of my employer/college etc etc etc), the standard of education has dropped markedly over recent years. Partly because of the push to increase doctor numbers (which can only really be achieved in the short term by lowering the acceptance standard) and partly because those, like myself, have had enough and abandoned GP land (ok - only partly in my case). What I was trying to allude to is that the education for GP's on Coeliac is pretty good, comparatively. But of course education and understanding do not mean the same thing and if you lower the standard of education you are also, probably, going to lower the standard of understanding. So sorry to hear this. You touch on what I personally feel is one of the major issues facing GP's these days and that is the ability to communicate. GP's are increasingly being taught to diagnose based almost exclusively on clinical symptoms and probabilities rather than the less 'algorithmic' skills of interpretation and the ability to engage with the patient to draw out the salient aspects of their condition. Maybe I'm just becoming one of those grumps bemoaning the abilities of the younger generation.
  5. As a doctor I can confirm that Coeliac is under-diagnosed BUT the reason for this is not simply lack of GP education. Yes there is an element of this but part of the problem is also that media 'awareness' has made this quite a popular condition to claim to have. Anecdotally I would say about 10% of the patients I see with GI conditions will claim to be Coeliac even though as mentioned by the OP the true rate in the population is around 1% (so it is uncommon - I wouldn't use the word rare.) The other problem is that the only truly reliable way to diagnose is via invasive biopsy and with the serology tests there is always (currently) going to be 100,000 or so going un or miss-diagnosed. GP education on Coeliac is pretty good but pressures on the NHS system mean that they have to play the probability game and the bottom line is the vast majority of patients will not have Coeliac and have to be managed accordingly. That said and by all means (and especially if you have a family history of diagnosed Coeliac) if you feel you have severe symptoms 'push' the GP to have a test. They should not refuse your request and if they do request to change your GP.
  6. Look - at the end of the day ALL these services use the same models and ALL the forecasts on these apps are automatically generated. The differences come in the algorithms used to interpret the point values (usually derived from an ensemble of runs). Most tend to focus on precipitation (or lack of) and wind as that is primarily what their target customer is interested in. Variations in accuracy will happen all time between these providers especially those who use the GFS type model with 25km resolution. To go back to the OP's question there probably isn't one single 'best' app. Find 2 or 3 that you find you like and when you want to plan something look at the forecasts from all of them. If they all agree then pretty good chance that will happen. If they wildly disagree that's as sign that you need to take any of the forecasts with a good pinch of salt.
  7. Yep - when I try to explain the difficulty with forecasting (showers) I say its a bit like chickenpox (in the days we were allowed, or encouraged to get it - anybody else get sent to play with infected friends or was that just my sadistic parents?), you know the spots are going to start on the truck but exactly where is impossible to say. Its the same with showers, you know which area they will be in but knowing exactly where is impossible
  8. Depends on your level of knowledge and what you want from a site. If you are just interested in rain then the UKMO is the only site in the UK who use 1km model resolution (i.e. forecast points every 1km). The other sites use far coarser resolutions - some even up to 25km (GFS). The best freely available site I have found (as an ex-meteorologist) is without a doubt windy.com who have access to ECMWF - probably the best medium range forecast model out there. If you want just a radar type view of current conditions/rain then there are quite a few good apps out there to look at and they are all pretty much the same (as they are based on the radar data the UKMO releases). My favorite though has been 'tarnished' by google now slapping 'for development purposes' all over the background map as the site obviously doesn't want to or can't afford the fees google now charge to use their maps on public sites.
  9. JJPHG

    Brexit 2019

    Been out of the country too long now to have my say (either way) on this debate but watching from afar I would say that the media coverage from outside the UK is very very different from that within the UK (from my observations on my 6 week trip back over Xmas). Both sides of the ‘debate’ seem very entrenched and unlike GE’s where there is a sizable proportion of floating voters, the number of ‘persuadable’ voters seems comparatively small. Out of interest anybody on here willing to own up to having a change of view/heart since the original referendum?
  10. Whenever I am mobile, boat, bike, walking, whatever (but not car) I use my phone and a pair of Jabra ear buds. Only I can then hear it (usually spoken, podcasts or similar) and nobody else is bothered. Easy to make playlists on the phone and can fast forward from the earbud. Portable, easy to charge and earbuds usually last me 4 to 5 hours bike rides - haven't gone far enough yet for them to run out anyway.
  11. Just goes to show - very few things in life are certain..... and when it comes to weather/nature..... well
  12. Big summer (thunderstorm) event yes that can happen. But for 'normal' intensities of rain it wouldn't. Other factors to bear in mind are water table levels, vegetative evapotranspiration rates, ambient humidity, wind speed and amount of non-porous material (concrete - yes I know it's porous but not in the scheme of things) are what I can remember from my flood warning days. Thankfully computers took over and were on the whole, a lot better at forecasting.
  13. No - probably is the correct term as it depends on a myriad of factors but primarily the rainfall/run-off relationship. Granted at this time of year with the ground at or close to field capacity rainfall will equate to some corresponding rise in river level.
  14. Haven't been on the water enough recently to be able to contribute but be ready for the 'sharing that will means it will no longer stays pretty' brigade!
  15. Exactly right. There is very little conclusive evidence that EMF has the purported carcinogenic effects or much effect at all. That said it might be we just haven't uncovered the correlations yet. The other risks already mentioned I think are far far greater than the EMF potential risk.
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