WHEN'S IT ALL GONNA OPEN??

[mayalld]

2 minutes ago, peterboat said:

Dave they have just added the last 14 days deaths in nursing homes to the total its over 4300 and in the last 5 days the figures are rising the most I think this might apply the brakes to end of lockdown for a while

Will it?

 

Care homes are a discrete area, and the death figures are likely to mean more stringent steps there, but not in the wider community.

I would note that the static or slightly declining infection rate is despite an increase in testing, so in truth speaks to a fair downturn in infections.

[mrsmelly]

1 minute ago, mayalld said:

The trouble is that there is a plan.

 

That plan is not being shared for a number of reasons;

1. If they share the plan people will change behaviours ahead of the scheduled dates.
2. The timing of each step of the plan isn't fixed in stone, only what the steps are.
3. If they publish anything, then make a change the media will scream blue murder.

 

Yes agreed. The powers that be will do it one step at a time whilst the numpties in the media keep waffling along.

[Dr Bob]

1 minute ago, mayalld said:

Will it?

 

Care homes are a discrete area, and the death figures are likely to mean more stringent steps there, but not in the wider community.

I would note that the static or slightly declining infection rate is despite an increase in testing, so in truth speaks to a fair downturn in infections.

I agree. The government do not seem to be doing much for care homes (hospitalisation, testing, reporting etc). We are well passed the peak on the 10th April and things are going down in the general public. Care homes do seem to be discrete area that the gov are not interested in.

[Mike Todd]

20 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

One of the regular unanswered questions is regarding "once the 5 criteria have been met what is the process and timing for lifting the restrictions?"

 

I'd suggest it's a fair question or are 'they going to wait until the criteria and then think what do we do now ?'

 

Surely any business from the one-man band to the business of running a country undertakes planning and having 'things' in place to respond to business problems.

 

They could look at various options and file them away, just bringing out the scenario closest to the situation and introduced almost immediately.

 

Lets say (just as an example) that there have been no infections, no hospitalisations no deaths of anyone under 40 for 4 weeks.

1) All under 40'4 can go back to work

2) All kids can go back to school / college (taught by only under 40's)

3) All shops, recreational facilities etc can open (to under 40's)

 

I have no idea how it could be implemented, monitored or enforced (its above my paygrade), but surely some skilled business men, scientists and politicians could brain-storm potential scenarios and methods of implementation.

 

It is the sort of thing, that as a business we did every year, from disaster planning, to falling sales, to petrol shortages to raw material shortages, every possible scenario was looked at (with nothing off limits) and discussed with the most likely being written up in depth and the remainder kept in the 'appendix'.

I liked the letter in the Guardian today:

 

 As a 17-year-old I had to fib about my age to gain access to pubs. Now, if the lockdown for the over-70s is extended (Report, 23 April), I may have to do the same again.
Colin Burke
Cartmel, Cumbria

[Richard10002]

3 hours ago, mayalld said:

The trouble with this is that this is a very simplistic view of the situation.

 

"If we all stay in lockdown for longer, less people will die". I can see the appeal of that being true, because it makes the decisions so much easier.

 

The trouble is that it isn't true. Lockdown reduces deaths largely because it reduces the number who have the virus at one time, such that everybody can receive treatment. Consequently nobody dies for want of treatment. Unless you can maintain lockdown until there is a vaccine or effective medication (which doesn't seem likely) a lockdown of excessive severity doesn't help at all.

 

So, at all times, they need to maintain things so that the NHS can cope. No more, no less.

 

The reason for that is that maintaining a lockdown CAUSES other deaths;

 

• Suicides
• People not diagnosed with cancer in time
• People whose life prolonging cancer treatment is postponed.
• People whose economic circumstances are badly affected and become poorer, and whose lifespan is reduced.
• Children whose education is affected, and who will be at a disadvantage through life and become poorer.

Lockdown will need to be eased soon, otherwise the cure may kill more people than it saves.

Presumably, Johnsons take on this is that the NHS is just coping, and reducing the severity of the lockdown now could tip it to the point where it is not coping - He says he is not willing to risk this, until the numbers are not just flat, but are reducing.

 

Makes sense to me - if you allow new hospital cases to exceed the ability of the NHS to cope, you allow people to die, who shouldn't/needn't have died.

[Richard10002]

2 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

It is the sort of thing, that as a business we did every year, from disaster planning, to falling sales, to petrol shortages to raw material shortages, every possible scenario was looked at (with nothing off limits) and discussed with the most likely being written up in depth and the remainder kept in the 'appendix'.

Bit like the kind of thing government does on a regular basis, then ignores completely and keeps it a secret......

 

The Pandemic Response Plan, along with other related documents, are in the public domain. Exercise Cygnus showed how unprepared we were/are, was ignored, and kept secret.

2 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

Yes agreed. The powers that be will do it one step at a time whilst the numpties in the media keep waffling along.

and a few "numpties" in parliament. I think there a few in the Tory Party encouraging their bosses to get on with it.

 

(Yes!! I know the Labour Party is asking how, if not exactly when.)

[Alan de Enfield]

3 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

Bit like the kind of thing government does on a regular basis, then ignores completely and keeps it a secret......

Are you suggesting that the Government already has a detailed 'exit-plan' ?

[blackrose]

I posted this on the other Covid-19 thread. I realise he's promoting his organisation's agenda, but it does make sense to me. 

 

It's ostensibly about overseas holidays but restrictions will potentially extend domestically too.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by blackrose

[Richard10002]

12 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Are you suggesting that the Government already has a detailed 'exit-plan' ?

No, what gave you that idea?

 

I was stating that the government has a Pandemic Response Plan, that it didn't seem to know existed, (or has behaved in such a way), and that it carried out an exercise in 2016, the outcome of which it ignored completely.

 

Having said that, as has been said before, the Response Plan states that the Recovery Phase involves reducing lockdown restrictions, watch numbers, and increasing restrictions, as appropriate - this suggests a kind of zig zag in and out of lockdown. At present, there is no suggestion that this is the plan. Boris has intimated that once we come out of lockdown, he does not want to be going back into it again... He could, of course, be being economical with the truth?

[Alan de Enfield]

19 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

Having said that, as has been said before, the Response Plan states that the Recovery Phase involves reducing lockdown restrictions, watch numbers, and increasing restrictions, as appropriate - this suggests a kind of zig zag in and out of lockdown. At present, there is no suggestion that this is the plan. Boris has intimated that once we come out of lockdown, he does not want to be going back into it again... He could, of course, be being economical with the truth?

 

I seem to remember that that was the initial plan (back at the start of Feb) when it was suggested that 'let a few die and the rest develop immunity'.

Clamp down, cut the cases, lift the restrictions' let a few more die, clamp down, repeat, repeat, repeat.

 

This was back in the early days when Cummings was PM

[churchward]

48 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

Bit like the kind of thing government does on a regular basis, then ignores completely and keeps it a secret......

 

The Pandemic Response Plan, along with other related documents, are in the public domain. Exercise Cygnus showed how unprepared we were/are, was ignored, and kept secret.

and a few "numpties" in parliament. I think there a few in the Tory Party encouraging their bosses to get on with it.

 

(Yes!! I know the Labour Party is asking how, if not exactly when.)

Erm,  that sentence does not make sense was it kept secret or was it in the public domain?

[matty40s]

46 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Are you suggesting that the Government already has a detailed 'exit-plan' ?

Yes, its making Michael Gove PM....

[churchward]

6 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

I seem to remember that that was the initial plan (back at the start of Feb) when it was suggested that 'let a few die and the rest develop immunity'.

Clamp down, cut the cases, lift the restrictions' let a few more die, clamp down, repeat, repeat, repeat.

 

This was back in the early days when Cummings was PM

It was never part of the published plan.  It was mentioned/discussed by the head of PHE that we would have to develop herd immunity eventually but it has never formed part of policy to help that process.

[matty40s]

1 minute ago, churchward said:

Erm,  that sentence does not make sense was it kept secret or was it in the public domain?

The Pandemic Response Plan is a public document - the report into the shambles that was 2016 Operation Cygnus was kept from public view so nobody knew how unprepared we were......and anyhow, Brexit was more important.

[GUMPY]

1 hour ago, Richard10002 said:

Presumably, Johnsons take on this is that the NHS is just coping, and reducing the severity of the lockdown now could tip it to the point where it is not coping - He says he is not willing to risk this, until the numbers are not just flat, but are reducing.

 

Is the NHS coping?

They have stopped all other work than covid 19

Coping would be carrying on as normal and dealing with covid 19.

There will be people dieing from lack of treatment of things other than c19

 

[peterboat]

2 minutes ago, Loddon said:

Is the NHS coping?

They have stopped all other work than covid 19

Coping would be carrying on as normal and dealing with covid 19.

There will be people dieing from lack of treatment of things other than c19

 

True I was in A and E twice the other week very quiet and treated quickly.  I have to say that patients were still being seen in the eye dept

[mayalld]

1 hour ago, Richard10002 said:

Presumably, Johnsons take on this is that the NHS is just coping, and reducing the severity of the lockdown now could tip it to the point where it is not coping - He says he is not willing to risk this, until the numbers are not just flat, but are reducing.

 

Makes sense to me - if you allow new hospital cases to exceed the ability of the NHS to cope, you allow people to die, who shouldn't/needn't have died.

 

Looking at the 5 tests;

 

1) NHS able to cope [MET] - The NHS has sufficient capacity to handle even a reasonably significant upswing.

2) Consistent and sustained fall in death rates [MET] - The death rate has been falling for 3 weeks (exactly as predicted by the modelling when we went into lockdown)

3) Rates of infection falling to manageable levels [MET] - despite an increase in testing, the number of new infections is consistently falling.

4) Sufficient Supplies [NOT MET] - sufficient testing capacity should be sorted very soon, and then it really rests on getting an adequate supply of gowns.

5) Confident that adjustments won't cause a second peak [NOT MET] - the tracing app will be the key here.

 

So, on that basis, I would suspect that as soon as they get the PPE sorted, and a percentage uptake of the app, we can see movement. Beyond that, I expect the carrot that if more people use the app, lockdown can be eased further, and that certain businesses will be allowed to open if the restrict access based on showing clear on the app.

 

[churchward]

9 minutes ago, Loddon said:

Is the NHS coping?

They have stopped all other work than covid 19

Coping would be carrying on as normal and dealing with covid 19.

There will be people dieing from lack of treatment of things other than c19

 

This week in Wales at least the daily reports have been reinforcing that the NHS is open for business not only for emergencies but other things too including regular cancer treatments etc.  It is not normal for sure but they are moving that way.  The NHS is coping in the sense that all people who need ICU care is getting it Covid related or not.  This is taking the toll on the availability of staff though and this is the limiting factor not machinery.  It (the NHS) is not and never can be an unlimited resource in any meaningful, practical way.

 

There will be and have been extra casualties from the virus for sure that are not directly connected to Covid-19 for all sorts of reasons.

[peterboat]

5 minutes ago, mayalld said:

 

Looking at the 5 tests;

 

1) NHS able to cope [MET] - The NHS has sufficient capacity to handle even a reasonably significant upswing.

2) Consistent and sustained fall in death rates [MET] - The death rate has been falling for 3 weeks (exactly as predicted by the modelling when we went into lockdown)

3) Rates of infection falling to manageable levels [MET] - despite an increase in testing, the number of new infections is consistently falling.

4) Sufficient Supplies [NOT MET] - sufficient testing capacity should be sorted very soon, and then it really rests on getting an adequate supply of gowns.

5) Confident that adjustments won't cause a second peak [NOT MET] - the tracing app will be the key here.

 

So, on that basis, I would suspect that as soon as they get the PPE sorted, and a percentage uptake of the app, we can see movement. Beyond that, I expect the carrot that if more people use the app, lockdown can be eased further, and that certain businesses will be allowed to open if the restrict access based on showing clear on the app.

 

Has the death rate been falling? Those nursing home figures put that in doubt 

[Dr Bob]

10 minutes ago, peterboat said:

Has the death rate been falling? Those nursing home figures put that in doubt 

Keep up Peter! I thought we had convinced you in post 51/53.

[mayalld]

14 minutes ago, peterboat said:

Has the death rate been falling? Those nursing home figures put that in doubt 

Yes, even with the nursing home figures, it has been falling

[peterboat]

2 minutes ago, mayalld said:

Yes, even with the nursing home figures, it has been falling

They are rising that's the issue, which puts the falling figures in doubt. The ONS figures say over the last 5 days they have been rising rapidly which for me and maybe the government might be a problem 

[matty40s]

24 minutes ago, mayalld said:

 

Looking at the 5 tests;

 

 

5) Confident that adjustments won't cause a second peak [NOT MET] - the tracing app will be the key here.

 

 

 

You are out of date Dave, the Gov has moved the goalposts again on this one.(Actually to a more sensible one - there will always be a 2nd peak)

 

5. Confident that adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections that will overwhelm the NHS.

 

 

 

[GUMPY]

46 minutes ago, peterboat said:

They are rising that's the issue, which puts the falling figures in doubt. The ONS figures say over the last 5 days they have been rising rapidly which for me and maybe the government might be a problem 

Not a hope of deaths decreasing yet. Sure the governments figures might appear to be going down but they are very selectively generated. As I said a month ago peak will be begining of May. Rubbish what do you know I hear you cry, well we shall see when the next couple of ONS figures come out.

 

ETA it was actually April 7th so only 3 weeks ago

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Loddon

[Richard10002]

1 hour ago, churchward said:

Erm,  that sentence does not make sense was it kept secret or was it in the public domain?

It's two sentences!!!