WHEN'S IT ALL GONNA OPEN??

[Sir Nibble]

1 minute ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Who knows when it will end ?

 

Maybe you can tell us when the Earth is going to implode so we can prepare !

The lockdown will end when it is prudent to end it. That will be when the R number goes to a level where it looks safe and unlikely to spark a second wave. No one knows yet. This is a bit like people complaining about the "Unacceptable" level of deaths. Might as well try and sue a thunderstorm for ruining your picnic.

[Ianws]

4 hours ago, cuthound said:

 

You almost got it right.

 

S = Specific

M = Measurable

A = Agreed (so your boss can't  just impose one on you)

R = Realistic (and therefore achievable)

T = Timebound

 

Unfortunately when I was working I either had to agree these with my boss or with my direct reports.

 

 

I’ve used both versions but prefer yours. 

[Wanderer Vagabond]

1 hour ago, dogsarelandseals said:

It’s very frustrating seeing people wishing for the lockdown to continue while completely ignoring those who are in dire straits already. Those who are unable to claim furlough payments are living on exceptionally small handouts, rents have not been suspended, and the jobs they had (bars, restaurants etc) no longer exist, and are unlikely to be replaced in the near future. As a student I am extremely lucky that I am able to continue to be self employed, as I receive no loans and am not eligible for universal credit. There is going to be mass homelessness when the restriction on evictions expires, as people have been unable to work, and will not be able to live on what the government provide. So just think about the people who are getting next to nothing and are struggling to keep their head above water, coupled with the maddening lack of information about when this will end. This government treats its citizens like children. It’s frightening. 

In fairness I don't think that there is anyone who wants the lockdown to continue, it is just a case of necessity. If we were talking about going out into the community with the risk of catching a cold, pretty much everyone would be out there (I certainly would), but when the illness has a serious 'side-effect', like occasionally death, it concentrates the mind a bit more on just how essential what you may want to do actually is. Is a pint or a coffee worth the risk?

[dogsarelandseals]

12 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

In fairness I don't think that there is anyone who wants the lockdown to continue, it is just a case of necessity. If we were talking about going out into the community with the risk of catching a cold, pretty much everyone would be out there (I certainly would), but when the illness has a serious 'side-effect', like occasionally death, it concentrates the mind a bit more on just how essential what you may want to do actually is. Is a pint or a coffee worth the risk?

It’s not about a pint or a coffee for millions of people though. It’s about being able to afford their rent and to eat. 2/3 of the surveyed uk public want the lockdown to continue apparently. I imagine those 2/3s are still able to feed themselves and pay bills. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by dogsarelandseals

[Momac]

18 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

It’s not about a pint or a coffee for millions of people though. It’s about being able to afford their rent and to eat. 2/3 of the surveyed uk public want the lockdown to continue apparently. I imagine those 2/3s are still able to feed themselves and pay bills. 

What is  your preferred  solution ?

[peterboat]

21 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

It’s not about a pint or a coffee for millions of people though. It’s about being able to afford their rent and to eat. 2/3 of the surveyed uk public want the lockdown to continue apparently. I imagine those 2/3s are still able to feed themselves and pay bills. 

I understand where you are coming from but better in debt than dead and that is the real alternative 

[dogsarelandseals]

17 minutes ago, MartynG said:

What is  your preferred  solution ?

Masks, mass testing and tracing, and ppe for care workers as well as an effective decontamination procedure. 

13 minutes ago, peterboat said:

I understand where you are coming from but better in debt than dead and that is the real alternative 

It isn’t though. For a lot of people, their finances won’t recover for years. And this is a lot of young people, who likely wouldn’t be killed by the virus. We’re not talking about the difference between being able to shop at Waitrose or Tesco. We’re talking bankruptcies. Crippling debt.
 

The young and poor have been sacrificed to save the old and the vulnerable. How much better to follow the countries who advocated for mass testing and tracing, enabling the vulnerable to stay safe, and those who are on the breadline not to fall below it.

Edited April 30, 2020 by dogsarelandseals

[peterboat]

6 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

Masks, mass testing, and ppe for care workers as well as an effective decontamination procedure. 

It isn’t though. For a lot of people, their finances won’t recover for years. And this is a lot of young people, who likely wouldn’t be killed by the virus. We’re not talking about the difference between being able to shop at Waitrose or Tesco. We’re talking bankruptcies. Crippling debt.
 

The young and poor have been sacrificed to save the old and the vulnerable. How much better to follow the countries who advocated for mass testing and tracing, enabling the vulnerable to stay safe, and those who are on the breadline not to fall below it.

And when the lockdown is relaxed the virus will just come back! vaccine or controlled herd immunity is your choices. Fortunately the young don't run the country otherwise millions of older peeps would be dead ?

[dogsarelandseals]

9 minutes ago, peterboat said:

And when the lockdown is relaxed the virus will just come back! vaccine or controlled herd immunity is your choices. Fortunately the young don't run the country otherwise millions of older peeps would be dead ?

Not if testing, and contact tracing is followed... Would you have the country locked down until a vaccine is discovered?

Edited April 30, 2020 by dogsarelandseals

[peterboat]

2 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

Not if testing, and contact tracing is followed... Would you have the country locked down until a vaccine is discovered?

First visiter with the virus starts it all again as Germany is finding out

[dogsarelandseals]

2 minutes ago, peterboat said:

First visiter with the virus starts it all again as Germany is finding out

So lockdown is pointless then. As I’m sure you’re aware, we haven’t banned incoming flights.

Edited April 30, 2020 by dogsarelandseals

[peterboat]

3 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

So lockdown is pointless then. As I’m sure you’re aware, we haven’t banned incoming flights.

Nope, controlled infections with the elderly and unwell protected,seems to be working and that involves lockdown to keep the control 

Edited April 30, 2020 by peterboat

[Wanderer Vagabond]

20 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

Masks, mass testing and tracing, and ppe for care workers as well as an effective decontamination procedure. 

It isn’t though. For a lot of people, their finances won’t recover for years. And this is a lot of young people, who likely wouldn’t be killed by the virus. We’re not talking about the difference between being able to shop at Waitrose or Tesco. We’re talking bankruptcies. Crippling debt.
 

The young and poor have been sacrificed to save the old and the vulnerable. How much better to follow the countries who advocated for mass testing and tracing, enabling the vulnerable to stay safe, and those who are on the breadline not to fall below it.

I do agree that we need mass regular testing to try to keep control of the virus, but as another poster has indicated, it is a stop gap measure until either a vaccine is created, or enough people have contracted the illness to reduce the prospect of infections running out of control again. Whilst we have a population of which a large percentage have no immunity the virus can erupt again.

 

It isn't just the young that are going to suffer from debt and bankruptcies, our High Streets weren't in a strong position before this event and there are going to be a lot of jobs disappearing on that front. Annoyingly it is going to be the likes of Amazon who are going to benefit massively from this; before a vaccine is found, online is the way to get stuff and once a vaccine has been found a lot of the High Street will have gone reducing any competition they may have had.

 

I do sympathise with the debt problem you are highlighting, you say that for a lot of people their finances wont recover for years, for some people their finances may never recover from this shock. We were already in the position of the younger generations of today being the first, almost since the industrial revolution, who were going to be poorer than their parents, and this will not improve it in any way.  

[peterboat]

5 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

I do agree that we need mass regular testing to try to keep control of the virus, but as another poster has indicated, it is a stop gap measure until either a vaccine is created, or enough people have contracted the illness to reduce the prospect of infections running out of control again. Whilst we have a population of which a large percentage have no immunity the virus can erupt again.

 

It isn't just the young that are going to suffer from debt and bankruptcies, our High Streets weren't in a strong position before this event and there are going to be a lot of jobs disappearing on that front. Annoyingly it is going to be the likes of Amazon who are going to benefit massively from this; before a vaccine is found, online is the way to get stuff and once a vaccine has been found a lot of the High Street will have gone reducing any competition they may have had.

 

I do sympathise with the debt problem you are highlighting, you say that for a lot of people their finances wont recover for years, for some people their finances may never recover from this shock. We were already in the position of the younger generations of today being the first, almost since the industrial revolution, who were going to be poorer than their parents, and this will not improve it in any way.  

I agree most of the world's countries will be in the same boat

[dogsarelandseals]

18 minutes ago, peterboat said:

Nope, controlled infections with the elderly and unwell protected,seems to be working and that involves lockdown to keep the control 

Have you seen the care home death stats?

[peterboat]

Just now, dogsarelandseals said:

Have you seen the care home death stats?

I have but just think what they would be like if their was no lockdown? Millions more than likely and the NHS would not exist 

[dogsarelandseals]

9 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

I do agree that we need mass regular testing to try to keep control of the virus, but as another poster has indicated, it is a stop gap measure until either a vaccine is created, or enough people have contracted the illness to reduce the prospect of infections running out of control again. Whilst we have a population of which a large percentage have no immunity the virus can erupt again.

 

It isn't just the young that are going to suffer from debt and bankruptcies, our High Streets weren't in a strong position before this event and there are going to be a lot of jobs disappearing on that front. Annoyingly it is going to be the likes of Amazon who are going to benefit massively from this; before a vaccine is found, online is the way to get stuff and once a vaccine has been found a lot of the High Street will have gone reducing any competition they may have had.

 

I do sympathise with the debt problem you are highlighting, you say that for a lot of people their finances wont recover for years, for some people their finances may never recover from this shock. We were already in the position of the younger generations of today being the first, almost since the industrial revolution, who were going to be poorer than their parents, and this will not improve it in any way.  

Mass testing and contact tracing can be used instead of locking down. See South Korea. It is generally young people that work in retail. They will be overwhelmingly hit with high street closures. 

 

I didn't want to catastrophise, but I agree. Some will never recover. Which is why the way this has been managed is unforgivable. 

1 minute ago, peterboat said:

I have but just think what they would be like if their was no lockdown? Millions more than likely and the NHS would not exist 

Please see South Korea for how it could be with no lockdown. No lockdown does not mean no measures. It means alternative measures that actually allow visualisation of where the virus is and contain it. Rather than blindly shutting everything down to protect the medically vulnerable at the cost of the financially vulnerable.

[Alan de Enfield]

1 hour ago, dogsarelandseals said:

It’s not about a pint or a coffee for millions of people though. It’s about being able to afford their rent and to eat. 2/3 of the surveyed uk public want the lockdown to continue apparently. I imagine those 2/3s are still able to feed themselves and pay bills. 

Compared to 52% / 48% then 67% / 33% is almost unanimous.

[dogsarelandseals]

1 minute ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Compared to 52% / 48% then 67% / 33% is almost unanimous.

It's a third of people that may not be able to afford a roof over their head or food for their kids... 

[Wanderer Vagabond]

36 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

Mass testing and contact tracing can be used instead of locking down. See South Korea. It is generally young people that work in retail. They will be overwhelmingly hit with high street closures. 

 

I didn't want to catastrophise, but I agree. Some will never recover. Which is why the way this has been managed is unforgivable. 

Please see South Korea for how it could be with no lockdown. No lockdown does not mean no measures. It means alternative measures that actually allow visualisation of where the virus is and contain it. Rather than blindly shutting everything down to protect the medically vulnerable at the cost of the financially vulnerable.

The difference between the UK and South Korea is that they already had  experience from the 2015 MERS outbreak and had the infrastructure to be able to set up teams for contact tracing (the main point of testing). Our ability to do so has been damaged over the years by cutbacks in various departments which is why the policy was abandoned early on. The lockdown has hopefully enabled us to get the infrastructure in place although I still don't know how many contact tracing teams that they have put together yet, or are they putting all their eggs into the phone app basket?

 

Given where we started from, I don't think that there has been a realistic alternative to lockdown unless you count Cummings idea of allowing infection to create the 'herd immunity'. Originally people were saying that he wasn't the one making policy, but now we find he was in on the scientists SAGE meetings giving his input, as though he knows anything of the science of pandemics. Having a man such as him in the meetings as a contributor rather than a mere observer significantly undermines the advice coming out of them.

[peterboat]

30 minutes ago, dogsarelandseals said:

It's a third of people that may not be able to afford a roof over their head or food for their kids... 

Against more than likely 1-2 million dead NHS wiped out businesses still gone as the owners are dead. If you hadn't guessed I am one of the 2/3rds that agree with the lockdown.  If we are lucky a vaccine will be sorted and normality can resume

[Momac]

Looking at the results in Italy it has taken almost three weeks to get from 4000 to 2000 new cases per day. The fall in numbers of new cases was reasonably steady.

 

In the UK, unless there is a dramatic decline in new cases in the next week,  I would say at next Thursdays government review the lockdown will  be set to continue. A further review two weeks after that would seem a sensible outcome.

 

 

 

[Ianws]

There’s no one size fits all solution to this right now. I’ve got a son leaving uni this year, going to be hard finding a job. I’ve got an aunt in her mid 80s with health conditions that would probably be fatal if she was infected. I work with a charity that normally provides free community meal bu for now we are delivering food parcels for people who need them, which is growing and includes people who were recently comfortable. People of all ages are struggling with lots of different issues, both immediate and affecting their futures. The current plan is causing pain to some people but is in place to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. I’m sure there’s a need to relax things, as much as possible and as soon as possible, but not if that’s going to lead to a further spike that puts he NHS at risk again. Not an easy job assessing the different actions and options and how effective they will be. 

[churchward]

1 minute ago, MartynG said:

Looking at the results in Italy it has taken almost three weeks to get from 4000 to 2000 new cases per day. The fall in numbers of new cases was reasonably steady.

 

In the UK, unless there is a dramatic decline in new cases in the next week,  I would say at next Thursdays government review the lockdown will  be set to continue. A further review two weeks after that would seem a sensible outcome.

 

 

 

I think that will be the case.  It has been said several times that the UK is behind Italy by 2-3 weeks and both Spain and Italy have shown a slow decline from their peak. However,  one advantage of being behind them is that it is possible to see how their relaxing of restrictions is working along with Germany and that may offer some hope of an earlier relaxation of the rules here in a shorter time but I do doubt it.

[Phil.]

36 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

The difference between the UK and South Korea is that they already had  experience from the 2015 MERS outbreak and had the infrastructure to be able to set up teams for contact tracing (the main point of testing). Our ability to do so has been damaged over the years by cutbacks in various departments which is why the policy was abandoned early on. The lockdown has hopefully enabled us to get the infrastructure in place although I still don't know how many contact tracing teams that they have put together yet, or are they putting all their eggs into the phone app basket?

 

Given where we started from, I don't think that there has been a realistic alternative to lockdown unless you count Cummings idea of allowing infection to create the 'herd immunity'. Originally people were saying that he wasn't the one making policy, but now we find he was in on the scientists SAGE meetings giving his input, as though he knows anything of the science of pandemics. Having a man such as him in the meetings as a contributor rather than a mere observer significantly undermines the advice coming out of them.

Did Cummings actually say what he has been reported to about the herd immunity and letting old people die. It seems during his attendance at SAGE meetings he is reported to have pressured towards the lockdown, the complete opposite of what he was earlier allegedly seeking. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/29/dominic-cummings-tried-influence-lockdown-advice-sage-members/

Given what we have just gone through over the past six weeks, are you saying going into the lockdown was wrong, and that it was not required. If not, it would appear Cummings was calling it about right, as that is what has been required to reduce the peak.
 

Re the contact tracing, this seems to work, and the app which is being developed, will be run in conjunction with the tracing teams who it was reported will be ready in the next couple of weeks. However comparing us to S Korea would be a mistake. Our population is not as compliant with authority, and their systems are far more invasive than ours will be. In addition to their authorities having control over their phones, they also use banking systems to track and trace their population. They also have virtually 100 percent participation. Now for the duration of the emergency, and strictly for use only in respect of virus tracing, I personally would not resist this amount of intrusion, but many would, and unless the uptake is high, the system will not be as effective.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Phil.