WHEN'S IT ALL GONNA OPEN??

[Richard10002]

45 minutes ago, mayalld said:

2) Consistent and sustained fall in death rates [MET] - The death rate has been falling for 3 weeks (exactly as predicted by the modelling when we went into lockdown)

3) Rates of infection falling to manageable levels [MET] - despite an increase in testing, the number of new infections is consistently falling.

 

Where are you getting your numbers from? My perception is that both have levelled to a degree but cannot yet be said to be falling, (with any confidence).

[peterboat]

5 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

Where are you getting your numbers from? My perception is that both have levelled to a degree but cannot yet be said to be falling, (with any confidence).

Same thoughts as me Richard 

[Philip]

12 hours ago, peterboat said:

Same thoughts as me Richard 

Hospital wise, two weeks or so ago they were around the 650-700 a day mark, a week ago that had dropped to around the 500 per day mark; 21st and 22nd April were around 450 per day. So it's logical to think by now we're somewhere around the 400 per day mark and of course this will be reducing as the lockdown/social distancing continues. New positive infections too; the last week has averaged around 4500 per day, about a thousand less on average than 3 weeks ago.

 

The situation in the care homes is horrific, but as said before this is a confined area and these too will be reducing as a result of lockdown and no visitors.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Philip

[Alan de Enfield]

20 minutes ago, Philip said:

Hospital wise, two weeks or so ago they were around the 650-700 a day mark, a week ago that had dropped to around the 500 per day mark; 21st and 22nd April were around 450 per day. So it's logical to think by now we're somewhere around the 400 per day mark and of course this will be reducing as the lockdown/social distancing continues. New positive infections too; the last week has averaged around 4500 per day, about a thousand less on average than 3 weeks ago.

 

The situation in the care homes is horrific, but as said before this is a confined area and these too will be reducing as a result of lockdown and no visitors.

 

There are numbers, and there are numbers !

 

The UK’s five-day average for coronavirus deaths is now the highest of any major European economy at this point in the pandemic’s curve, new analysis has revealed.

At this point in the pandemic, some 42 days since the tenth death, the five-day average for deaths in the UK stands at 598, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. This is far higher than Italy (559), France (509) and Spain (423).

UK coronavirus deaths have been the highest among all major European countries for  four days in a row, overtaking France at this stage of the pandemic. 

This is despite the international data for the UK only recording deaths in hospitals, in contrast to countries like France which records all community deaths.

ONS figures released today reveal that a further 4,319 coronavirus deaths have now been recorded outside of hospitals in England and Wales. This means that, up to Friday 17 April, the UK death toll was 39 per cent higher than the totals published by NHS England.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/29/uk-death-toll-coronavirus-worst-europe-charts/?

[sniffy]

I've not seen anything but has there been any updates regarding visiting boats on moorings or cruising other than for essential services yet

[Alan de Enfield]

 

Warning not to lift lockdown too early :

 

Germany considering re-imposing 'lockdown' after 2 weeks of relaxation.

 

 

Germany is considering reimposing lockdown measures amid warnings the number of coronavirus cases could be about to rise again. Epidemiologists have said the virus’s basic reproduction number – it’s R value – has crept back up to 1.0, the threshold between growth and decline. Angela Merkel has warned that hospitals will be overwhelmed by the end of June should the number rise even a little higher, making a second lockdown inevitable. Shops, schools and other public buildings have slowly begun reopening over the past week or so, but retailers and senior government figures have been pushing for an even faster lifting of restrictions.

 

When Germany’s 16 states agreed to move towards partially lifting restrictions, the R value had fallen from a peak of 1.3 to 0.7. However, Lothar Wieler, the head of the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases, says it has risen back up to 1. He added that the increase alone was no cause for alarm, but stressed that ‘we don’t want the number of cases to rise again’. Mr Wieler said Germany has, compared to other countries, been successful so far in restricting the spread of the virus.

 

According to Ms Merkel, a value of 1.2 would ‘hit the full capacity’ as early as July, while a resurgence to 1.3 would take the health system to breaking point by the end of June. ‘So you can see how little room for manoeuvre we have,’ she added

 

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/28/germany-considering-tightening-lockdown-just-two-weeks-12624696/?ito=cbshare

 

 

 

[junior]

23 hours ago, nbfiresprite said:

A new Cambridge University study has suggested 275 measures society could take to tackle the spread of coronavirus after the lockdown is lifted.

As mass vaccination is not likely before the second half of 2021, the lifting of existing lockdown measures should be combined with other measures to ensure there isn't a rise in coronavirus infections, the study suggests.

 

Here are just some of the measures that have been proposed:

Physical isolation

• Physical contact with people outside of the household or listed 'bubble' of friends - including handshaking, kissing or hugging - could be banned or prohibited.
• Where possible, working from home could continue.
• Companies could be fined for encouraging or forcing non-essential workers to go into work.
• 'Virtual schools' could be created to enable continued education.
• The government could limit the distance people can move from the house (e.g. within 100–200 m when walking dogs adopted in Italy and France).
• A curfew could be imposed in order to prevent people from leaving their homes outside of certain hours.
• Transport services could be removed or reduced so essential journeys are reduced.
• Workers could be banned from going out to buy lunch.
• People’s ability to buy non-essential or luxury items could be restricted, including removing them from stock, limiting their availability or preventing people from only buying them, while noting that what is ‘non-essential’ will vary from group to group.
• A booking system to allow people to book time slots in shared spaces such as shops and canteens could be introduced.
• The open access right to private land could be expanded to reduce crowding in parks.
• Walking clockwise around shared spaces could be normalised

Reducing transmission through contaminated items

• Objects touched by multiple individuals (water dispensers, public seating, magazines in aircraft) could be reviewed or removed if they are considered inessential.

• Fees for minimum payment for contactless could be removed to encourage use.

• The use of drones and driverless vehicles for delivery purposes could be increased.

• At petrol stations, a member of staff could be recruited to refuel cars to prevent multiple handling ofl pumps. With payment through a phone app, all could be achieved without leaving the car.

Enhancing cleaning and hygiene

• Automatic hand sanitiser dispensers could be introduced on entry and exit of supermarkets, public transport and other areas of potential contamination
• Outdoor spaces and vehicles could be sprayed with disinfectant from drones or aircraft.

You can read the full list of suggestions here.

That seems stricter than what everybody is doing at the moment!

[peterboat]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Hospital wise, two weeks or so ago they were around the 650-700 a day mark, a week ago that had dropped to around the 500 per day mark; 21st and 22nd April were around 450 per day. So it's logical to think by now we're somewhere around the 400 per day mark and of course this will be reducing as the lockdown/social distancing continues. New positive infections too; the last week has averaged around 4500 per day, about a thousand less on average than 3 weeks ago.

 

The situation in the care homes is horrific, but as said before this is a confined area and these too will be reducing as a result of lockdown and no visitors.

The numbers aren't going down when you add the rapidly rising deaths in nursing homes! It doesn't matter where someone dies if they have the virus they count

[Athy]

"At petrol stations a member of staff could be recruited to refuel the car"..I remember that when I was a boy and when Dad took his car to the filling station, this is what always happened.....Plus ca change....

[Mike Todd]

14 hours ago, mayalld said:

 

Looking at the 5 tests;

 

1) NHS able to cope [MET] - The NHS has sufficient capacity to handle even a reasonably significant upswing.

2) Consistent and sustained fall in death rates [MET] - The death rate has been falling for 3 weeks (exactly as predicted by the modelling when we went into lockdown)

3) Rates of infection falling to manageable levels [MET] - despite an increase in testing, the number of new infections is consistently falling.

4) Sufficient Supplies [NOT MET] - sufficient testing capacity should be sorted very soon, and then it really rests on getting an adequate supply of gowns.

5) Confident that adjustments won't cause a second peak [NOT MET] - the tracing app will be the key here.

 

So, on that basis, I would suspect that as soon as they get the PPE sorted, and a percentage uptake of the app, we can see movement. Beyond that, I expect the carrot that if more people use the app, lockdown can be eased further, and that certain businesses will be allowed to open if the restrict access based on showing clear on the app.

 

I did not think that the app showed that you were 'clear'. I any case, you could have picked up an infection from a hard surface and brought it with you.

 

The Chief Scientist has been very clear to point out that testing is useful  in population level studies but is not valid at the individual. yes, that is a hard concept for non-scientists to get their head around (and some who have been trained thus as well, alas) but it is fundamental to all statistical tests, such as correlation, multi variate etc etc

[Alan de Enfield]

19 minutes ago, Athy said:

"At petrol stations a member of staff could be recruited to refuel the car"..I remember that when I was a boy and when Dad took his car to the filling station, this is what always happened.....Plus ca change....

Our local garage did that until last year when they closed down and it became a Vauxhall dealership.

 

They don't tend to keep up with technology around here, but if you were a regular, you could fill up yourself and he'd look out of the window to see what was on the pump gauge,

[Alway Swilby]

1 hour ago, sniffy said:

I've not seen anything but has there been any updates regarding visiting boats on moorings or cruising other than for essential services yet

No.

[Philip]

46 minutes ago, peterboat said:

The numbers aren't going down when you add the rapidly rising deaths in nursing homes! It doesn't matter where someone dies if they have the virus they count

You're twisting what I've posted to continue to paint a negative picture. I acknowledged care homes but it is relevant that these are confined from the situation for the general public, namely hospital figures and as of last week, positive tests for essential workers. And these figures are clearly reducing, as would be expected as a result of social distancing. Right now isn't the time to lift anything, still too early, so caution and patience needed. But the improving situation needs to be recognised too.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Philip

[Alan de Enfield]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

You're twisting what I've posted to continue to paint a negative picture. I acknowledged care homes but it is relevant that these are confined from the situation for the general public,

Could you please expand on what you mean by this ?

 

 

[Philip]

21 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Could you please expand on what you mean by this ?

 

 

That care home figures should be differentiated between hospital figures, because infection within care homes is unlikely to spread into the community, more so now with the restrictions in place.

 

Basically, the situation in the care homes shouldn't mean not acknowledging the progress made in the community, as peterboat seems to be doing.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Philip

[Alan de Enfield]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

That care home figures should be differentiated between hospital figures, because infection within care homes is unlikely to spread into the community.

Unless the care home staff are locked-up within the care home it could just as easily be transmitted in to the community as from any other source.

 

No problem in keeping the Care Home figures separate from the NHS figures, but where do 'others' (Hospice, Home, etc etc) fit in ?

The big issue for many people is the way the Government appeared to ignore any deaths outside of the NHS and in effect reducing the figures by 35%-40% to show how well we were doing.

When it was picked up and they were questioned, their answer was 'its too difficult to get the figures', but it seems that fairly quickly the figures have now become available on a daily basis.

[mrsmelly]

44 minutes ago, Philip said:

That care home figures should be differentiated between hospital figures, because infection within care homes is unlikely to spread into the community, more so now with the restrictions in place.

 

Basically, the situation in the care homes shouldn't mean not acknowledging the progress made in the community, as peterboat seems to be doing.

The virus may well be taken from the care homes into the community. Care workers go to work in the home and then go home and shopping etc, they are not sealed up like a tomb. If only it was that easy ?

[Machpoint005]

2 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

According to Ms Merkel, a value of 1.2 would ‘hit the full capacity’ as early as July, while a resurgence to 1.3 would take the health system to breaking point by the end of June. ‘So you can see how little room for manoeuvre we have,’ she added

 

At least some world leaders are being open and honest, and treating their citizens like grown-ups.

16 hours ago, mayalld said:

>>as soon as they get the PPE sorted,<<

[ironic laugh]

 

So we're going to be in lockdown for several weeks or months yet, then.

[WotEver]

On 28/04/2020 at 08:38, nbfiresprite said:

Come home to a warm fire, buy a cottage in Wales

Rowan Atkinson, Not the Nine O'Clock News, 1980

 

 

[Momac]

I have been trying to keep up hopes of relaxation in the rules .

But that is becoming harder to maintain optimism  with time. The rate of new infections isn't dropping (possibly due to more tests being conducted)  and the death rate is only just starting to show a possible slow decline.  

 

I don't see pubs and restaurants opening in 2020 and even if they did I would not be using them.  Social distancing cannot possibly  be adequately managed  in a pub or restaurant and many local cafes  and smaller restaurants are simply too small to keep people 2metres apart.

Social distancing will remain the new normal and I would not be surprised if that lasts for at least a year from now.

 

I do hope it is nearing time to allow travel for visiting property such as holiday homes, caravans and boats and just maybe for day trips to visit  close relatives , although not everyone will want to take up those options for fear of transmitting the virus between family members . 

 

 The next government review is 7th May .

 

In the meantime I am pleased the weather has turned a bit wet and cold  as it will keep people at home.

 

 

 

 

 

[Athy]

13 minutes ago, MartynG said:

The rate of new infections isn't dropping

According to Worldometer, which I think is a reliable source, yes it is - though of course the figures are still appallingly high.

[Machpoint005]

1 hour ago, MartynG said:

>>day trips to visit close relatives<<

 

My bet would be that's one of the first "relaxations" of the lockdown, but it will have to be very carefuly managed. No visits to care homes, for a start.  

[Athy]

47 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

My bet would be that's one of the first "relaxations" of the lockdown, but it will have to be very carefuly managed. No visits to care homes, for a start.  

That's fine in theory, but how might it be enforced. A care assistant at the front door toting a .303 Lee Enfield?

[peterboat]

5 hours ago, Philip said:

You're twisting what I've posted to continue to paint a negative picture. I acknowledged care homes but it is relevant that these are confined from the situation for the general public, namely hospital figures and as of last week, positive tests for essential workers. And these figures are clearly reducing, as would be expected as a result of social distancing. Right now isn't the time to lift anything, still too early, so caution and patience needed. But the improving situation needs to be recognised too.

I am not twisting anything, as others have said people go in and out of these homes so the spread is not contained in any way. Anne the wife of my business partner works in care homes so does Rachael who lives just down the moorings they are both reporting illness bothe among the residents and the staff at these homes. Now you might want things to go back to normal quickly, but I want things to back to normal safely so all virus related deaths are reported and in reality ours are not going down so now is not the time for lockdown to be relaxed

[Philip]

27 minutes ago, peterboat said:

I am not twisting anything, as others have said people go in and out of these homes so the spread is not contained in any way. Anne the wife of my business partner works in care homes so does Rachael who lives just down the moorings they are both reporting illness bothe among the residents and the staff at these homes. Now you might want things to go back to normal quickly, but I want things to back to normal safely so all virus related deaths are reported and in reality ours are not going down so now is not the time for lockdown to be relaxed

This cannot carry on for much longer, for the sake of the long term impact; particularly on the economy and people's mental and physical health for reasons other than coronavirus. I am not calling for easement just yet, but if we haven't seen significant lifting of certain restrictions by the end of June then we're in trouble.

 

Ok so care homes aren't quarantined, but they're not a big source of infection in the community. Visitors aren't allowed in unless a family member is dying - and chances are the vast majority of the staff will be being very careful with their hygiene outside of the homes.