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churchward last won the day on June 28

churchward had the most liked content!

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About churchward

  • Birthday 11/04/1958

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  1. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    It is not great to have a third of your MPs (all backbenchers so not on the ministerial payroll) vote against you but as you say it does mean that 2 thirds did vote for her and it could have been much worse. It is also worth noting in terms of the scale of the vote is that she won the leadership vote with a smaller margin before Andrea leadsom pulled out. I am no supporter of the Conservative Party but one has to admire her fortitude and ability to just keep buggering on in the light of enemies from all sides and what must be a huge amount of political and emotional pressure. She appeared to get through the day yesterday very well and did not look like a crushed and weak PM even holding up well in the House for PMQT. I did think she looked rather tired at her speech outside No.10 after the vote but given the length of day and what she had to get through that was entirely understandable and to be expected. She seems very sincere in her wish to see Brexit through to a conclusion. What happens after that is open to debate but even though she has 12 months protection from another vote I do not think she will last that long. If I was her knowing that my time was limited in the job I would want to choose my own moment to go rather than be brought to the brink by others. It has all been a silly distraction from what really matters.
  2. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    Ok I see. I doubt she would have plotted to bring the vote about herself. There is so little to gain against what could have been lost and in any case stopped her in her tracks in terms of EU meetings and with the Irish PM. Personally I still think the vote on the deal in the house being pulled is not the reason the vote was brought at this time anyway although it may have encouraged a final few to send in the letters it is more the plotting of the ERG which has had a strategy since the summer to get to this point.
  3. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    It looks like there is quite a chunk of the MPs opposed to the proposed deal would accept a modified version that either removes or modifies the "back stop" NI Border process (actually the process applies to the whole of the UK) to have a limit or specific triggers to remove it rather than the EU "veto" it presently has. So this one element could be much of what is needed to get enough MPs to vote for the deal. Even Rees-Mogg has made some comments to that effect. Somewhat academic as it looks unlikely that an amendment would be agreed with the EU just now. What reaction and comment comes out of the EU summit today is going to give some indication.
  4. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    To be clear (if it was what you were referring to) my comments about machiavellian was not about May or FOR her it was the plotting of the ERG and the people writing the letters to the 1922 committee. The people being machiavellian are Rees-Mogg and the ERG. I agree it hopefully takes the sting out of the ERG for a a bit and up to a point gives her some kind of mandate to proceed. But we are still where we were before the vote which is a proposed deal the House does not like and would not vote for. The 12 month no re-visit to the conservative no-confidence process does give the PM some standing and it reduces the chances of a referendum and an early election before March. It also reduces the chances of a No deal Brexit which for me is important. We do seem to be at the point of two options accept the deal as it stands (or clarified deal) or Remain.
  5. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    And......... We are no further forward or the status any different to yesterday. Nothing has been achieved or changed. Before the vote the proposed deal was unlikely to get through on a a vote, May was PM but under sufferance and soon as Brexit is over she is shark bate. After the vote?, Do I need to explain?
  6. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    It was a bigger vote for her than some were predicting so in the circumstances it was about as good as she could have hoped for. On the other hand there are 117 MPs (about a 3rd) who voted against her and that is damaging but she has been a busted flush for sometime now so not much has changed and it is more to do with people not being brave enough to do the job prior to Brexit being over. She cannot now be challenged in the same way for 12 months minimum but I think post Brexit she will face a lot of pressure and for her part she will possibly feel like it is job done and choose to get out at that time. The vote is something that could have been done without the timing of which I think is sinister as I say being targeted at disrupting discussion with the EU. The upside is that it is likely that the option of a no deal Brexit has receded and the Conservative ERG led by Rees-Mogg also pegged back. But they may have known they would not win and the motives for doing it even more machiavellian than I suspected.
  7. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    I can't agree. this is no consicidental timing. They have had weeks to do this. The ERG are making their move and trying to take a step towards what they want to happen. Right now probably not but next year sometime more likely, perhaps in the summer.
  8. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    I can see the first happening but not so sure on the Remain side. The timing of this is not coincidence in my view that it disrupts the PMs plans to talk to the EU and the summit tomorrow. She was due to speak to people in from the EU today but that was cancelled to get her chain mail on and watch her back and try and drum up support. I think the Conservative hard line Brexiteers may well have been nervous of what the PM could bring back from Brussels/Strasburg or wherever they are this week. If she could get something that makes the deal more palatable it could be rescued. No certainty at all in that but it is a possibility and I am sure this is happening now to disrupt those conversations. I do not think it is about the postponed vote since the people behind the 48 letters were never going to accept the deal and so could have triggered it at any time after the proposed deal was known. As for the Corbyn argument it might give the Torys the frights but I am not so sure the voter is, as people could well be thinking that they could not do a worse job right now and given the opportunity vote to take a risk for change just as many did in the referendum.
  9. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    I am hoping May wins and they do not get the required 158 votes or more. I think there is a reasonable chance that is how it will go but it is a secret ballot and anything could happen. We are all in for a rough ride if it goes badly I think.
  10. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    Oh for sure. Each time they look in disarray the Labour leadership must think it is coming to them and why they are often talking about a GE to sort things out. They could be right too. I certainly would prefer a GE if we need some kind of national vote to another referendum and the parties can debate and convince us how they are going to resolve things and the winners are then responsible for delivering it.
  11. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    If think that you are mistaken. They may be quite just now but it has not gone away. They currently will have an eye on constituency selection and a possible GE in the summer or sooner. If there was one and Corbyn loses again then we will see a reemergence of opposition.
  12. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    None of them are ignoramuses but I know what you mean. There is a distinct possibility we could get a hard line "No deal " favouring PM and it will hurt big time in my view. But I am crossing my fingers and hoping they cannot find the 158 MPs to vote against May tonight. As a sailor we usually carry a ditch bag on board for emergencies and we find ourselves in the drink. I may need to pack one at home too the way things are going and call my cousins in Ireland!😄
  13. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    Not at all it was being discussed on the BBC news at lunch time. if the vote of no-confidence fails tonight May gets to continue and under the party rules she then cannot be challenged for 12 months minimum. The rifts and difference of opinion in the Conservative party has been there for a long time between hard line Brexiteers (those that wrote the 48 letters pretty much) and more moderate leavers and of course those that want to remain. It is not so large a difference as we have seen in the Labour party over Brexit or indeed the Corbynistas and the more moderate centre left labourites. No particular need for sympathy they are playing their political games and are bringing it on themselves. Sadly though if they get May out it is quite possible we will all suffer quite badly along with them if a prospect of a No deal Brexit becomes more likely.
  14. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    We shall see. It is a bit of a mess for sure brought on by a few hard line Conservative MPs but all may not be lost as they will be voting tonight and will have to get 158 votes or more to get rid of the PM and start a new leader (and PM) vote which is quite a different prospect to getting 48 letters to trigger the no confidence vote. If they do vote her out then the hole they are digging just gets deeper.
  15. churchward

    Brexit 2019

    It is nonsense to call the Government Pension a Ponzi scheme. It would need to have fraudulent intent which the Pension clearly has not. What a terrible thing to have done in creating a Pension for all. When it was created they did not start with a pot of money so Pensions had to come out of taxation after all that is all pretty much the government has other than borrowing. Therefore it is no surprise that ongoing the Pension has carried on coming from current taxation.

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