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Dr Bob

By Dr Bob
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Dr Bob Veteran II

Dr Bob

Posted
Posted

Nice weather for late December again this year but will it last?

I frequent one of the weather forums

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91032-hunt-for-cold-model-discussion-heading-into-christmas/?page=86

to look at what the experts are saying about the worldwide surface and atmospheric models that sometimes can predict our weather (maybe, sometimes........piss up in a brewery). This site was quite accurate about our 'beast from the east' a while back so is always entertaining reading.

My eye was drawn to a post today from one of the more listened to experts in the model discussion thread. Here is his last paragraph

 

Once again, I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas.  I'll try and produce several updates later this week after Christmas as what's on the cards as we move into January looks incredibly exciting for cold hunters in the eastern CONUS, eastern Canada, Europe and the UK.  This is dramatic stuff and absolutely fascinating for all those studying the background signals.  David.

 

The text in the post seems to be pushing the view that a cold spell worse than that in Feb/March is about to hit in January. One word of warning, this site is full of peeps looking for cold, ice and snow so is very biased to supporting any 'cold' sounding predictions, unlike us on here who dont really want to rely on our ecofans to keep us warm.

(Interesting to see all the rules on this site. Look at the page header on page 1 of the thread. The mods enforce the rules to the letter!).

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mrsmelly Veteran II

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Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

Nice weather for late December again this year but will it last?

I frequent one of the weather forums

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91032-hunt-for-cold-model-discussion-heading-into-christmas/?page=86

to look at what the experts are saying about the worldwide surface and atmospheric models that sometimes can predict our weather (maybe, sometimes........piss up in a brewery). This site was quite accurate about our 'beast from the east' a while back so is always entertaining reading.

My eye was drawn to a post today from one of the more listened to experts in the model discussion thread. Here is his last paragraph

 

Once again, I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas.  I'll try and produce several updates later this week after Christmas as what's on the cards as we move into January looks incredibly exciting for cold hunters in the eastern CONUS, eastern Canada, Europe and the UK.  This is dramatic stuff and absolutely fascinating for all those studying the background signals.  David.

 

The text in the post seems to be pushing the view that a cold spell worse than that in Feb/March is about to hit in January. One word of warning, this site is full of peeps looking for cold, ice and snow so is very biased to supporting any 'cold' sounding predictions, unlike us on here who dont really want to rely on our ecofans to keep us warm.

(Interesting to see all the rules on this site. Look at the page header on page 1 of the thread. The mods enforce the rules to the letter!).

Lets hope the cold spell is over by the 29th of march as after that time there will be no fuel left in the UK for our stoves and no money to buy any from China and Russia ?

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pete.i Rising Star

pete.i

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I don't listen to weather forcasts as such. Like global warming and ice ages they have happened before and will keep happening no matter what we do. But it was forcast sometime last year, I think, that this coming winter would be the hardest and coldest for 100 years.

 

 

 

 

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Athy Veteran II

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Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, pete.i said:

I don't listen to weather forcasts as such. Like global warming and ice ages they have happened before and will keep happening no matter what we do. But it was forcast sometime last year, I think, that this coming winter would be the hardest and coldest for 100 years.

 

 

 

 

Not any time soon. The BBC forecast shows that maximum temperatures will be 45 degrees or higher every day from now until the 6th of January.

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Dr Bob Veteran II

Dr Bob

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1 hour ago, Athy said:

Not any time soon. The BBC forecast shows that maximum temperatures will be 45 degrees or higher every day from now until the 6th of January.

No, that's right. It looks like it is soon after that that we will see some significant blocking patterns over Europe and some SSW events. The 14 day models wont be picking any of it up yet. Probably they will have a bit more of a handle on it in a week or so.

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dor Veteran II

dor

Posted
Posted (edited)

I look at the paper headlines on the BBC site.  It seems that the Daily Express warns of a massive bout of 'bad' weather every other day.  

Unless some snivelling little Grauniad reader is criticising Buggerit again.  Or princess Di is alive and living in a nunnery...

 

ETA:. Been the recipient of some excellent malts tonight; Happy Christmas everybody!

Edited by dor
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DandV Rising Star

DandV

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Posted
2 hours ago, Athy said:

Not any time soon. The BBC forecast shows that maximum temperatures will be 45 degrees or higher every day from now until the 6th of January.

Geez 45 degrees! that's really really warm, the same as the Australian ABC shows as being forecast for parts of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.

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Iain_S Influencer

Iain_S

Posted
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4 hours ago, pete.i said:

I don't listen to weather forcasts as such. Like global warming and ice ages they have happened before and will keep happening no matter what we do. But it was forcast sometime last year, I think, that this coming winter would be the hardest and coldest for 100 years.

Was that in the Express?  (One of these years, they'll be right ?)

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roland elsdon Influencer

roland elsdon

Posted
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50 minutes ago, DandV said:

Geez 45 degrees! that's really really warm, the same as the Australian ABC shows as being forecast for parts of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.

Yes at 0830 this morning the temperature on my bike computer was 37 degrees.( after my ride!!!)  It was in the sun though. We are in that heat area and its going to be 40 plus in the area where we are . Believe me when it gets there its scary.

Out here the climate change denialists are dominant. The flat earthers are also quite common. 

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roland elsdon Influencer

roland elsdon

Posted
Posted

Rural victoria is similar to rural america.

they shoot things for fun, they drive utes, they think australia is the best country on the earth, whilst not owning a passport,  they wear hats, and they are intollerant to migrants not seeing the irony. A v8 car is a sign of success, and he who dies with the most toys wins.

However parts of it are quiet and truly gods own country, with lovely generous people.

cant get over the flat earth bit though.

 

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DandV Rising Star

DandV

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, roland elsdon said:

Rural victoria is similar to rural america.

they shoot things for fun, they drive utes, they think australia is the best country on the earth, whilst not owning a passport,  they wear hats, and they are intollerant to migrants not seeing the irony. A v8 car is a sign of success, and he who dies with the most toys wins.

However parts of it are quiet and truly gods own country, with lovely generous people.

cant get over the flat earth bit though.

 

Fortunately on our sojourn through there earlier this month, Melbourne to Adelaide via Ballarat, Swan Hill and Midura the temperatures were a much more pleasant early twenties. Unfortunately here, rural Australia, like the US and the UK Rupert Murdoch, is highly influential in peddling narrow mindedness. He after all  came from these parts. South Australia.

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Dr Bob Veteran II

Dr Bob

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Well all that doomsaying by the experts in my first post seems now to have evaporated with just a few clinging on to the notion that the cold will be here later in January. Looks like the Atlantic weather will dominate for quite a while to come. Maybe winter is delayed to February?

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matty40s Veteran II

matty40s

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2 hours ago, Dr Bob said:

Well all that doomsaying by the experts in my first post seems now to have evaporated with just a few clinging on to the notion that the cold will be here later in January. Looks like the Atlantic weather will dominate for quite a while to come. Maybe winter is delayed to February?

2 things to bear in mind - not all the models have a full output at this time of year as not all data is available - until the SSW actually happens, the models do not have a handle on the tropospheric conditions affected by the downwelling.

Hope this helps.:lol:

2nd week of Jan is my reckoning.....

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