RCD and RCA

[BoatinglifeupNorth]

36 minutes ago, Tony Brooks said:

30ah - what is that all about? Seems someone who likes to have ago at me for being a know all has just shown how little he knows. I suspect it was meant (by the OP) to be 30mA, which is the tripping current difference. If so, the talk about 16A (not 16ah) shore bollards shows a misunderstanding. The other possibility is that the OP was referring to a 30 amp RCBO which would be the tripping current, but always rated in amps, never Amp hours.

 

30ah - what is that all about? Seems someone who likes to have ago at me for being a know all has just shown how little he knows. I suspect it was meant (by the OP) to be 30mA, which is the tripping current difference. If so, the talk about 16A (not 16ah) shore bollards shows a misunderstanding. The other possibility is that the OP was referring to a 30 amp RCBO which would be the tripping current, but always rated in amps, never Amp hours.

So I may of got the Ah, Ma, Am. Amp’s wrong you didn’t have to tell me twice😂 just stop being a jobsworth for once, you know what I mean the OP says “Fit adouble pole 30Am RCD or RCBO between the incoming shoreline supply and the isolating transformer”

so is it a 30 amp breaker or 30mA? 

 I bet your creaming your ‘Y’ fronts about what the OP has written, you and the other scaremongers will now be telling everyone “I told you so” “Brokers will not sell your boat without an RCD/RCR”

 Most people with a common sense approach will read the OP’s post and think “what a load of malarkey” and as people with common sense have said 99% of canal boats will not comply or pass a RCD/RCR with these inspection requirements.

 I’m moving a boat that should have a current RCD according to you as built in 2005. It’s going to a national boat broker. I mentioned the RCD requirement as there’s not any paperwork on the boat regarding it. I won’t put on here what he said regarding it, but funny thing he couldn’t wait to accept the boat for brokerage even without a RCD, maybe that shows the real world.

Edited July 14 by BoatinglifeupNorth

[Tonka]

38 minutes ago, BoatinglifeupNorth said:

You can read the OP’s opening post and take it a couple of ways, either worry that your boat will never comply with the RCD or have a chuckle and think “are they having a laugh?”
 Things like raise the weed hatch 30mm? Empty your fuel tank/fill your water tank will solve this one. Decrease the size of well deck scuppers? obviously loads of waves on the canals that could flood the boat through these, most narrowboats would be better off having larger ones to drain water away when too close to leaky top gates and filling the well deck. Fit a 30ah RCD between shore power inlet and ISTransformer, wouldn’t 30ah be too big? As the majority of shore bollards are 16ah, most inverters/electrical have 16ah trip, so what use would a 30ah RCD be? As shore bollard and equipment should trip before it, it seems too high for a canal boat? Fitting shore power connect/disconnect instructions?

As the OP hints at they're quite laughable really or amusing as he says, not to mention the anchor points for boarding ladders and the already being discussed dedicated bow anchor point😂

 As @IanD says 99% of boats on the canals would not pass these requirements not even new builds. Surely the RYA and whoever advises them on RCD/RCA should realise offshore requirements are completely different to Canal Narrowboats, so they would be better off looking into different RCD/RCA’s appertaining to different craft and their purpose/use not just one rule/compliance for all.

 

But if the OP's boat was a sailaway and if he has put too much weight into the fit out. This would result in the weed hatch and the skin fittings being too low. All of which the boat was picked up for.

 

On our old Freeman 22 built in the 1960's there was a separate independent anchor point in the anchor locker which you accessed through a hatch inside the front of the boat.

When I was a boatman for Thames Conservancy we had quite a few occasions where the T stud got ripped off of hire boats. This was in locks and mostly when they were trying to stop with the ropes.

 

I have also seen a Pat Buckle narrowboat have a rear dolly ripped off.

So it could happen

[Tacet]

22 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

 

 

That is of course your perogative. A surveyor may take a different view.

 

I do not intend to dig deep into the RCD/RCR requirements, but, if this is like most of the RCD/RCR 'essential requirements' there will be reams of specifications and detailed requirements behind the 'headline'

 

Think about all of the detailed requirements behind the elctrical 'essential requirements'

 

5.3 Electrical system
Electrical systems shall be designed and installed so as to ensure proper operation of the watercraft under normal conditions of use and shall be such as to minimise risk of fire and electric shock.
All electrical circuits, except engine starting circuits supplied from batteries, shall remain safe when exposed to overload.

 

Cable ends to be terminated.

Minimum pull out forces for the terminals

Minimum number of stands in a wire

Maximun number of cables on a battery terminal

Temperature ratings

& 'a thousand' more little details.

 

 

 

No. The Essential Requirements are just that.   There are not reams of further specific requirements behind them.

 

Whether some or all cable ends need to be terminated or minimum number of strands in a wire etc is only a matter of satisfying the Essential Requirements.  If the electrics allow proper operation under normal conditions and minimise the risks of shocks and fire, it's good enough.

 

Same with anchor points.  They need only to be strong enough; there is no categoric requirement that they are bolted and not welded.

 

And there's no Essential Requirement for fuel tank inspection hatches.

[BoatinglifeupNorth]

4 minutes ago, Tonka said:

But if the OP's boat was a sailaway and if he has put too much weight into the fit out. This would result in the weed hatch and the skin fittings being too low. All of which the boat was picked up for.

 

On our old Freeman 22 built in the 1960's there was a separate independent anchor point in the anchor locker which you accessed through a hatch inside the front of the boat.

When I was a boatman for Thames Conservancy we had quite a few occasions where the T stud got ripped off of hire boats. This was in locks and mostly when they were trying to stop with the ropes.

 

I have also seen a Pat Buckle narrowboat have a rear dolly ripped off.

So it could happen

That’s it, maybe he could of wrote “I was advised to remove ballast & re trim the boat as it was a bit low in the water, for the weed hatch”

[Tacet]

16 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Well as daft as it may be it is an essential requirement  even on a cat D boat so the surveyor knew his job and the techincal requirements.

 

But it is 'just' a space - no provison of mountings or even a liferaft - just say that the 1mt x 1mt space infront of the slide is for lifeboat stowage.

 

3.7 Life raft stowage
All recreational craft of design categories A and B, and recreational craft of design categories C and D longer than 6 metres shall be provided with one or more stowage points for a life raft (life rafts) large enough to hold the number of persons the recreational craft was designed to carry as recom-mended by the manufacturer. Life raft stowage point(s) shall be readily accessible at all times.

Your quote is from the Recreational Craft Regulations 2004 which were largely revoked by Regulation 90 of the Recreational Craft Regulations 2017 - see

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2017/737/regulation/90.

 

 

You need to understand the difference between the Essential Requirements and other standards, best practice and opinions.

[Tony Brooks]

21 minutes ago, BoatinglifeupNorth said:

So I may of got the Ah, Ma, Am. Amp’s wrong you didn’t have to tell me twice😂 just stop being a jobsworth for once, you know what I mean the OP says “Fit adouble pole 30Am RCD or RCBO between the incoming shoreline supply and the isolating transformer”

so is it a 30 amp breaker or 30mA? 

 I bet your creaming your ‘Y’ fronts about what the OP has written, you and the other scaremongers will now be telling everyone “I told you so” “Brokers will not sell your boat without an RCD/RCR”

 Most people with a common sense approach will read the OP’s post and think “what a load of malarkey” and as people with common sense have said 99% of canal boats will not comply or pass a RCD/RCR with these inspection requirements.

 I’m moving a boat that should have a current RCD according to you as built in 2005. It’s going to a national boat broker. I mentioned the RCD requirement as there’s not any paperwork on the boat regarding it. I won’t put on here what he said regarding it, but funny thing he couldn’t wait to accept the boat for brokerage even without a RCD, maybe that shows the real world.

 

Just because you seem happy to use incorrect units, making your comments nonsense and therefore confuse others who know as little as you appear to, does not mean that I am happy to allow you to continue in that vein. In fact, in an ideal world the mods would have picked you up, but I recognise they neither have the time nor expertise.

 

If you are able to read and comprehend my posts re the RCD/RCR you will see I always just warn about potential problems, I do not say there will be problems. I also try to warn about the type of problem the poster MIGHT face. Nothing more, and the OP's post seem to confirm the fact there are potential problems, despite your assertions. The fact that you seem happy to promote the idea that the RCD/RCR has little relevance for canal boats says an awful lot about you and your attitudes rather than absolute fact.

[Tacet]

15 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Have you got a designated storage area for your liferaft ? - NOW THAT IS a defined, qualified, essential requirement and a lack of which would be a non-compliance.

It's not a current Essential Requirement 

[BoatinglifeupNorth]

1 hour ago, Tony Brooks said:

 

Just because you seem happy to use incorrect units, making your comments nonsense and therefore confuse others who know as little as you appear to, does not mean that I am happy to allow you to continue in that vein. In fact, in an ideal world the mods would have picked you up, but I recognise they neither have the time nor expertise.

 

If you are able to read and comprehend my posts re the RCD/RCR you will see I always just warn about potential problems, I do not say there will be problems. I also try to warn about the type of problem the poster MIGHT face. Nothing more, and the OP's post seem to confirm the fact there are potential problems, despite your assertions. The fact that you seem happy to promote the idea that the RCD/RCR has little relevance for canal boats says an awful lot about you and your attitudes rather than absolute fact.

 Maybe you should become a moderator and you can alter everyone’s posts that get their Ah, mA, amps mixed up or anything else you think should be righted?

 I agree with you that it is relevant with new builds and  boats less then 5 years, but near impossible to in-force on boats 20 years old and nobody is going to get a £4500 RCD/RCR on a 20 year old boat and no broker is going to force a seller to get one.

 As said 99% of boats would fail if the OP’s opening post is a anything to go by, just look at the connect/disconnect instructions😂

 Just look at the comment at the end on fitting solar panels and if done a new survey would need to be done.

 How many people have fitted solar and lithium over the last few years? 1000’s of people and how many have had it inspected and a new RCR survey carried out(if that was what the RCR surveyor stated)? Very few, just shows that more people have my attitude towards the RCD/RCR than yours. 

Edited July 14 by BoatinglifeupNorth

[Peugeot 106]

3 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

It was the Trent where we were based and did just that - yes there is a gradual tensioning/stretch of the anchor rope but there is a definite 'twang' (shock load) when there is no stretch left.

 

 

 

As usual - you do me a diservice, you could at least mention that I'd have 15 or 20 mts of chain between the 'hook' and the anchorplait. But that wouldn't suit your version of facts would it.

 

We can all cherry pick details !

Well there you go somebody who has tried it in a river in a Narrowboat. I’ve anchored plenty of boats but never a Narrowboat in a river

 

 

[bizzard]

I remember that Elvis Presley used to be on the RCA record label.

[IanD]

3 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

It was the Trent where we were based and did just that - yes there is a gradual tensioning/stretch of the anchor rope but there is a definite 'twang' (shock load) when there is no stretch left.

 

 

 

As usual - you do me a diservice, you could at least mention that I'd have 15 or 20 mts of chain between the 'hook' and the anchorplait. But that wouldn't suit your version of facts would it.

 

We can all cherry pick details !

Not cherry-picking -- the long chain you recommend would give an even more gradual increase in tension as the catenary straightens than the 5m I've got (which is what the anchor manufacturer recommends).

 

A nice long nylon anchorplait will also slow down the rate of tension increase and reduce the peak load -- and come to that even if it does pull taut with the boat still moving the anchor is likely to drag at not much over a ton load according to the tests you have posted, well below the rope breaking strain.

 

A robust and properly welded T-stud will easily withstand this stress level, and is therefore "suitable" as an anchor point according to the very rules you posted.

 

A rusty or badly welded one might not, and would fail to meet the rules.

 

All this applies to narrowboats, not ferries or Thames clippers or supertankers... 😉

[Gybe Ho]

15 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

There  is a huge difference in loads when carefully anchoring a boat 'under power' and motoring / drifting back and ensuing the hook sets, than when you have an engine failure & dropping an anchor overboard in a 3 knot current and expecting the anchoring 'system' to take the shock load of stopping a 20 ton boat in 10 feet of water - we are not talking about anchoring in the conventional sense.

 

Yes a big difference in the regular and urgent anchoring situations you cite, however I still think loads will be lower compared to a rescue drag off a sandbank or the rafted river mooring example described earlier. Do the Regs mandate proper anchor warp? It is lovely stuff to handle, bundles well into a confined locker space and is stretchy.

 

https://jimmygreen.com/1016-liros-octoplait-polyester-anchor-warps

 

When two craft are moored alongside each other attached with short ( <1m) mooring lines and they roll out of sync to a wave pattern, the snatch loads can be horrible. Do narrowboaters use mooring line shock absorbers like these? https://jimmygreen.com/mooring-compensators/1133-9929-forsheda-mooring-compensators#/4466-size-size_1_10mm

 

None of what I posted is meant to be a defense of weak anchor/tow hull attachments. I thought it would help folks comprehended the relative forces involved in situations unfamiliar to inland narrowboats. A walk around an exposed marina like the Mayflower Marina in Plymouth soon highlights the extraordinary measures taken to reduce snatch loads on mooring lines. Marina operators don't like snatch loads on mooring lines breaking their pontoon cleats or their customer's boats.

 

 

[BoatinglifeupNorth]

5 hours ago, Tony Brooks said:

30ah - what is that all about? Seems someone who likes to have ago at me for being a know all has just shown how little he knows. I suspect it was meant (by the OP) to be 30mA, which is the tripping current difference. If so, the talk about 16A (not 16ah) shore bollards shows a misunderstanding. The other possibility is that the OP was referring to a 30 amp RCBO which would be the tripping current, but always rated in amps, never Amp hours.

 

30ah - what is that all about? Seems someone who likes to have ago at me for being a know all has just shown how little he knows. I suspect it was meant (by the OP) to be 30mA, which is the tripping current difference. If so, the talk about 16A (not 16ah) shore bollards shows a misunderstanding. The other possibility is that the OP was referring to a 30 amp RCBO which would be the tripping current, but always rated in amps, never Amp hours.

There changed my amp’s to a from ah. You could of done it if you wanted and just added the proverbial FTFY I wouldn’t of minded👍

and please I don’t have a go at you for being a “know it all” I have a go at you for being a “scaremonger” you’ve just got to look at the OP’s post to know the majority of boats don’t comply with the RCD and that includes new builds(shore power connect instructions) but you say they all should and Brokers won’t sell boats without one, which is just untrue. Brokers sell boats without RCD’s and that includes BMF member brokers.

Edited July 14 by BoatinglifeupNorth

[Paul C]

Woah hang on..........for Cat D RCD/RCR requirements, the boat builder themselves can self-certify. So you can't say "the boat doesn't comply" if its been certified as complying!! Only a suitably qualified surveyor can negate the original compliance, or at least fail it on a PCA.

 

If the issue is, you BELIEVE the boat doesn't meet the underlying standards, but it has RCD/RCR, then that's a different matter.

 

An internet forum expert, no matter how experienced, isn't the builder and isn't a qualified surveyor.

[BoatinglifeupNorth]

I’m not arguing, I’m saying looking at what the RCD surveyor picked up on the OP’s boat the majority of boats would fail, shore power connection instructions for one, then saying his well deck drains are too big?  Are they following the RCD inspection procedure to the letter cat C/D surely not? As the OP says “can of worms”

 

[Iain_S]

4 hours ago, Tacet said:

It's not a current Essential Requirement 

Quote

3.7.Life raft stowage

All recreational craft of design categories A and B, and recreational craft of design categories C and D longer than 6 metres shall be provided with one or more stowage points for a life raft (life rafts) large enough to hold the number of persons the recreational craft was designed to carry as recommended by the manufacturer. Life raft stowage point(s) shall be readily accessible at all times.

From the Recreational Craft Regulations 2017, Schedule 1

[Alan de Enfield]

6 hours ago, Tony Brooks said:

30ah - what is that all about? Seems someone who likes to have ago at me for being a know all has just shown how little he knows. I suspect it was meant (by the OP) to be 30mA, which is the tripping current difference. If so, the talk about 16A (not 16ah) shore bollards shows a misunderstanding. The other possibility is that the OP was referring to a 30 amp RCBO which would be the tripping current, but always rated in amps, never Amp hours.

 

And to add to that you would expect any experienced boater would know that whilst the RYA was the EU authorised administrator for the RCD scheme, they resigned about 10 years ago as neither the industry, nor any 'non-exporting boat builders' actually worked fully to the RCD.

 

The BMF has taken on the mantle as the UK RCR administrator and are ensuring that companies are now complying, with builders being taken to court and Brokers told they can only sell boats with the correct documentation.

 

6 hours ago, BoatinglifeupNorth said:

..........they would be better off looking into different RCD/RCA’s appertaining to different craft and their purpose/use not just one rule/compliance for all.

 

Again you show your ignorance of the subject - there are very different sections and requirements (Rules) that need to be met for each category of boat (Cat A, B, C, D) 

 

Lets take a very simple example of the downflooding heights for each category of boat

 

 

Edited July 14 by Alan de Enfield

[David Mack]

55 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Lets take a very simple example of the downflooding heights for each category of boat

 

If I understand that right hand graph correctly, any narrow boat (Cat D) over about 7m length has a required downflooding height of 0.4m. That is significantly more than the BSS requirement for any hull openings to be watertight to 250mm above the water line. And I suspect many narrow boats with 'self draining' front well decks don't even meet the 250mm height requirement at the cabin front door threshold.

[BoatinglifeupNorth]

I not really interested, as what you say with regards to the BMF/RYA has very little impact on the majority of peoples everyday boating on the system. Most  people haven’t even heard of them, never mind knowing what they do or as you think govern the rules.

 Just been on the BMF site to search for all these Broker members that are turning away boats because they don’t have a RCD/RCR here’s the list I found through their Broker search, if this is all there broker members it’s quite irrelevant to most.

https://www.britishmarine.co.uk/membership/find-member?keyword=&regassoc=0&groupassoc=53ba8de9-4085-ea11-a812-000d3a86acda

I’ve helped move two used boats from and to two different well known brokers this month, boats built 2007 & 2005, the one bought no current RCR/RCD no new PCA despite having work done, new solid fuel fire, full solar set up. The other taken to a broker to sell with no RCD, I won’t mention what the broker said. Just shows boats are being sold and bought without RCR/RCD/PCA paperwork despite your obsessive view to the contrary? All your cutting and pasting of RCD regs prove nothing, only that no one seems to be taking any notice of it and boats are still selling and being bought, so looks like it’s not a factor that people are loosing sleep over.

20 minutes ago, David Mack said:

If I understand that right hand graph correctly, any narrow boat (Cat D) over about 7m length has a required downflooding height of 0.4m. That is significantly more than the BSS requirement for any hull openings to be watertight to 250mm above the water line. And I suspect many narrow boats with 'self draining' front well decks don't even meet the 250mm height requirement at the cabin front door threshold.

So does it highlight even more Narrowboats that don’t comply with the RCD?😱😱

Edited July 14 by BoatinglifeupNorth

[Alan de Enfield]

28 minutes ago, David Mack said:

If I understand that right hand graph correctly, any narrow boat (Cat D) over about 7m length has a required downflooding height of 0.4m. That is significantly more than the BSS requirement for any hull openings to be watertight to 250mm above the water line. And I suspect many narrow boats with 'self draining' front well decks don't even meet the 250mm height requirement at the cabin front door threshold.

 

You read it correctly and is another example of NBs builders (possibly) not building compliant boats - UNLESS - the hose is swan necked up to the sink, basin etc, and a height of 0.4m (400mm) can be achieved from the water line to the basin/sink plug holes.

 

From a distant memory, the suggestion for when scuppers cannot meet the height requirement  for a 'higher step' into the boat, and / or self sealing scuppers (scupper valves) that only allow water to drain out.

 

I know, in the past when it has been discussed, I have posted illustrations of such scupper valves.

 

 

2 hours ago, Iain_S said:

From the Recreational Craft Regulations 2017, Schedule 1

 

Thank you, that is where I got the original quote - some folks will just not accept that the RCR DOES apply to their boats - however much they wish it didn't.

 

 

18 minutes ago, BoatinglifeupNorth said:

I’ve helped move two used boats from and to two different well known brokers this month, boats built 2007 & 2005, the one bought no current RCR/RCD no new PCA despite having work done, new solid fuel fire, full solar set up.

 

The BMF as the administrators of the RCR system can inform ALL brokers (not just BMF members) that the law reqires them to only sell boats with the correct paperwork.

Examples of two brokerage groups active on the inland waterways.

 

ABYA code of practice :

 

The Member should ascertain and, if possible, obtain at an early stage from the vendor the documentation he has available to prove title, compliance with the RCD (if necessary), evidence of VAT payment (or similar payment within the EU), or VAT exemption,

 

BMF code of practice:

 

All craft offered for sale to conform with relevant legislation (RCD etc)

 

 

20 minutes ago, BoatinglifeupNorth said:

no one seems to be taking any notice of it and boats are still selling and being bought

 

 

Maybe you should refer to the original post starting this thread.

Edited July 14 by Alan de Enfield

[David Mack]

31 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

You read it correctly and is another example of NBs builders (possibly) not building compliant boats - UNLESS - the hose is swan necked up to the sink, basin etc, and a height of 0.4m (400mm) can be achieved from the water line to the basin/sink plug holes.

I think that you can measure the 250mm/400mm to the lowest point on the rim of a sink or wash basin (not just the plug hole), since downflooding won't occur until water reaches that height.

 

The BSS requirement is pretty straightforward to meet for sinks and basins on most narrow boats, it is the front door threshold height that I suspect is less often compliant. I accept that scuppers with one way valves would be one way of meeting the requirement, but I don't think I've ever seen that on a nb.

[Alan de Enfield]

7 hours ago, Tacet said:

Your quote is from the Recreational Craft Regulations 2004 which were largely revoked by Regulation 90 of the Recreational Craft Regulations 2017 - see

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2017/737/regulation/90.

 

 

You need to understand the difference between the Essential Requirements and other standards, best practice and opinions.

 

Bad link - page cannot be found.

 

In the 2017 RCR regulations, 'schedule 1' there are 9 pages of essential requirments (including the requirement for a nominated space for a life raft)

Not 'best practice' not an 'opinion', not a standard  it is listed under the section title "Essential requirements".

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, David Mack said:

I think that you can measure the 250mm/400mm to the lowest point on the rim of a sink or wash basin (not just the plug hole), since downflooding won't occur until water reaches that height.

 

I think you will be correct on that.

Edited July 14 by Alan de Enfield

[BoatinglifeupNorth]

1 hour ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Maybe you should refer to the original post starting this thread.

Yes one person that decided to have his boat done, a self fit out. Not really a big impact on the boating world. The points that he’s been picked up on are quite humorous as he said, well deck scupper size, hook up labelling, overboard ladder fixings, permanent anchor point. Not really anything that would make me loose sleep over if on a Narrowboat on the L&L canal. You make this out to be a major thing that will impact everyone on the canal system, it won’t.

 If anything it highlights the minefield that the RCD/RCR has created and what is really applicable to narrowboats. I see expensive narrowboats being built every day, I’m yet to see one with a dedicated anchor point on the bow or a label telling people how to remove a shoreline cable and has anyone ever had their well deck drains measured to see if they’re too big or too small, please be realistic.

Edited July 14 by BoatinglifeupNorth

[Alan de Enfield]

15 minutes ago, BoatinglifeupNorth said:

Yes one person that decided to have his boat done, a self fit out.

 

There are at leat half a dozen threads in a similar vein - do a search.

[IanD]

8 hours ago, Tonka said:

But if the OP's boat was a sailaway and if he has put too much weight into the fit out. This would result in the weed hatch and the skin fittings being too low. All of which the boat was picked up for.

 

On our old Freeman 22 built in the 1960's there was a separate independent anchor point in the anchor locker which you accessed through a hatch inside the front of the boat.

When I was a boatman for Thames Conservancy we had quite a few occasions where the T stud got ripped off of hire boats. This was in locks and mostly when they were trying to stop with the ropes.

 

I have also seen a Pat Buckle narrowboat have a rear dolly ripped off.

So it could happen

Yes, it can happen when you try and bring a heavy boat to a stop with a short rope to an immovable object like a bollard, because the stress is huge -- or snatching a boat to get it off being aground, for the same reason.

 

I very much doubt that it will ever happen when using an anchor in a river in an emergency for the reasons stated earlier, and AFAIK there's no record of this ever happening -- at least, not with a T-stud made of anything much stronger than mouldy cheese... 😉

 

Come on you guys who keep doom-mongering about this, why not come up with some actual evidence instead of theoretical speculation?