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WHEN'S IT ALL GONNA OPEN??


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31 minutes ago, Jonkx said:

So, when do people think we might be able to get back out boating on the canals then?

August/September if all goes well ;)

 

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20 hours ago, MartynG said:

How do we know that ?

Do we now what percentage of the UK population will become a case ?

 

 

 

 

Up to now about 25% of those tested showed up as positive. If you use that as a basis then over 16 million of us may have already had C19 (some estimates have suggest 50% of the population have had it by now). Even if the final number of deaths recorded with C19 on the death certificate was 40000 (hopefully less)  then that would mean only around 0.25% of the population who get C19 will die with it mentioned on their death certificate,

 

As we don’t know how much C19 had an effect on each death (pre-existing conditions etc) it’s likely that C19 has had an even lesser effect on the population. Also the testing won’t show up those who have already had C19 and built up immunity.

 

At least our government have finally stepped up the testing.

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Probably not until the pandemic ravaging the earth has been bought under control. Not sure when humans, who are the pandemic ravaging the earth, will be under control though !!!

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2 hours ago, Rambling Boater said:

Up to now about 25% of those tested showed up as positive. If you use that as a basis then over 16 million of us may have already had C19 (some estimates have suggest 50% of the population have had it by now). Even if the final number of deaths recorded with C19 on the death certificate was 40000 (hopefully less)  then that would mean only around 0.25% of the population who get C19 will die with it mentioned on their death certificate,

 

As we don’t know how much C19 had an effect on each death (pre-existing conditions etc) it’s likely that C19 has had an even lesser effect on the population. Also the testing won’t show up those who have already had C19 and built up immunity.

 

At least our government have finally stepped up the testing.

 Now they are testing 100000 a day only 5% are positive and most tests are for those with symptoms so your % is flawed. Some studies are saying only 2-3% Inthe total population have had it. 

There is no joined up thinking yet on the extent of the virus.

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1 hour ago, Dr Bob said:

 Now they are testing 100000 a day

 

No, they are not. They counted 100,000 tests on 30 April (one day) and it appears that they included the testing kits they posted that day, having held onto a whole lot of them to get the headline numbes up.

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Dr Bob said:

There is no joined up thinking yet on the extent of the virus.

 

The last six words are superfluous. methinks.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dr Bob said:

 Now they are testing 100000 a day only 5% are positive and most tests are for those with symptoms so your % is flawed. Some studies are saying only 2-3% Inthe total population have had it. 

There is no joined up thinking yet on the extent of the virus.

Wrong! Latest gov data.

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

No, they are not. They counted 100,000 tests on 30 April (one day) and it appears that they included the testing kits they posted that day, having held onto a whole lot of them to get the headline numbes up.

 

 

 

 

 

The last six words are superfluous. methinks.

 

 

Is there a little dark cloud that follows you around?

 

The announced count on 30/04 was 126K (about 40K being home test kits sent out) and the following day about 106K total.  If you count the same way day to day from there on it does not matter the means of counting.  In any case it is just one more thing to get obsessed about now that PPE seems to have been forgotten.  Dr Bob is correct of course, now that the testing is increasing and more of the general public rather than who is sick in hospital etc. the infection rate found is much lower.

 

The fact that there are home test kits at all is a good thing no matter how they are counted in the testing total.  This kind of kit will be a very important element in further/increasing testing and in the context of track & trace. 

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9 minutes ago, Rambling Boater said:

No it is not wrong.  What you are seeing there is the total infections and total tested so far making 22% but the latest testing that is going beyond people with symptoms and people in hospital etc.  the infection rate is much lower in recent days. So, the expectation will be that the is percentage of the totals will start to drop as more testing is done across a better cross-section of the population.

 

Due to who was being tested the infection rate (22%) is not a valid indication of how many people in the general population of the UK has had the virus. It is no where near a safe assumption to use this percentage in the way you have.

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A lower infection figure (tested negative) might also indicate that a large percentage of those randomly tested have already had the virus and built up immunity.

 

A reliable antibody test would reveal the real percentage who have had it and it sounds like a reliable test is on it's way.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rambling Boater said:

A lower infection figure (tested negative) might also indicate that a large percentage of those randomly tested have already had the virus and built up immunity.

 

A reliable antibody test would reveal the real percentage who have had it and it sounds like a reliable test is on it's way.

 

It certainly would.  As it stands we do not know the infection rate in the general population but an anti-body test would help zero in on that.

 

It would be good news when they can get an anti-body test out to survey the population and in a way it will also be good news if there are a high proportion that do have anti-bodies.  If that was the case it may mean lockdown could be eased faster or at least such an urgent dependency on a widely available vaccine.

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15 minutes ago, Rambling Boater said:

A lower infection figure (tested negative) might also indicate that a large percentage of those randomly tested have already had the virus and built up immunity.

 

A reliable antibody test would reveal the real percentage who have had it and it sounds like a reliable test is on it's way.

 

If/when they start letting people outside for picnics on the basis that fresh air is good for them and there is less risk of virus spread than in DIY stores (June) then IMHO that's when we go boating as where will a lot of them go - to their local canal

Edited by Halsey
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3 minutes ago, Halsey said:

If/when they start letting people outside for picnics (June) then IMHO that's when we go boating as where will a lot of them go - to their local canal

I truly hope you are correct.  It is possible but things have got to get a lot better yet for that to happen.  We do look to be turning the corner and with the new levels of testing and increasing lab capacity  for more coming on stream we have some reason to hope.

 

I am missing seeing the boat for sure and missing going sailing in my Drascombe too.  

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14 minutes ago, churchward said:

I truly hope you are correct.  It is possible but things have got to get a lot better yet for that to happen.  We do look to be turning the corner and with the new levels of testing and increasing lab capacity  for more coming on stream we have some reason to hope.

 

I am missing seeing the boat for sure and missing going sailing in my Drascombe too.  

I know what a Drascombe (lugger) is and love them - can't see any Welsh seaside locations/harbours letting anyone in for some time ...............

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57 minutes ago, churchward said:

Is there a little dark cloud that follows you around?

 

The announced count on 30/04 was 126K (about 40K being home test kits sent out) and the following day about 106K total.  If you count the same way day to day from there on it does not matter the means of counting.  In any case it is just one more thing to get obsessed about now that PPE seems to have been forgotten.  Dr Bob is correct of course, now that the testing is increasing.....

The latest figures show testing has fallen to 76,496 tests in the 24 hours up to 09:00 BST on Sunday.

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10 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The latest figures show testing has fallen to 76,496 tests in the 24 hours up to 09:00 BST on Sunday.

It is the weekend, give them a break ;)

 

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43 minutes ago, Halsey said:

I know what a Drascombe (lugger) is and love them - can't see any Welsh seaside locations/harbours letting anyone in for some time ...............

Possibly,  but I only live a couple of miles away from Llyn Tegid (Bala Lake) so that will do when regulations allow. Frustrating though as Y Bala is our local high street and the lake only a short distance away from there.

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42 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The latest figures show testing has fallen to 76,496 tests in the 24 hours up to 09:00 BST on Sunday.

I suppose the problem is people might not need to test! so those 76K today might all be ill that their is at the moment

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2 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

Does the NHS shut over weekends?

No but that is entirely irrelevant given the NHS itself is not doing all the testing or all the admin to track the testing.  It has been a pattern over the last few weeks  that statistics lag a bit over a weekend including testing numbers and catch up during Monday and Tuesday the following week.

 

But still, never leave a possible opportunity for a snide remark to pass us by huh?

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7 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

Does the NHS shut over weekends?

Admin people may well work weekdays .

Some of the data is obviously influenced by weekends.

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5 minutes ago, peterboat said:

I suppose the problem is people might not need to test! so those 76K today might all be ill that their is at the moment

I think you will find that those who need to be tested are way above 76K, we need mass testing to find a way out of lockdown.

51 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The latest figures show testing has fallen to 76,496 tests in the 24 hours up to 09:00 BST on Sunday.

As was pretty much expected.

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There is a problem with self testing in that it is intrusive, and there are lots of wimps out there, so lots of false negatives.

I'm not sure what we are going to do with these test results, is it to  satisfy a testing target, or to allow folks back to work if they are self isolating? There has to be a very slow return to normality, this may be one route, to be honest.

Personally I think my contribution to not spreading the disease is as restrictive as I can make it, and it is those who insist on refusing to stay at home, but go out shopping, in pairs, who are doing the most harm, not necessarily by one shopping trip, but by numerous shopping trips, ie essentially they think the rules don't apply to them, they have not got the message. Probably they are living in a bubble, it won't hit home 'till people they know get knocked out.

I am cc-ing very soon, I think that means  moving 50 metres from my current home mooring!

Edited by LadyG
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