phasing out of fossil fuels - programme

[magnetman]

1 minute ago, TheBiscuits said:

 

They were celebrating their 500,000th battery swap earlier this year.  Most of which are automated swaps in a special unit.  Drive in, robot arm removes battery, arm inserts new one, drive out.

An obvious advantage of this arrangement is that when someone comes up with a new chemistry which makes NMC look like a steam engine compared to a diesel engine this can be packaged into the same form factor as the existing unit. A car built around a battery module is relying on that particular battery being the best thing. Of course if you are selling cars then ideally you want someone to buy another one rather than just upgrade the battery. 

[IanD]

1 minute ago, magpie patrick said:

It isn't just the choice of battery, indeed it isn't even the choice of battery that they would rebel against, it's the impact on their freedom to design the rest of the car

Exactly what I said. Battery swapping might work for the likes of Nio in a command economy like China, but not in the West with lots of governments who can't agree and companies who compete with each other and want to do their own thing.

[TheBiscuits]

3 minutes ago, IanD said:

Battery swapping/BAAS has been proposed loads of times by lots of people; the problems are that all cars need to use the same size batteries (or a very small number of sizes), the logistics of who owns the batteries and how you know you're not getting a "bad" one, physical access into the cars to replace them -- it all sounds like a good idea until you look at the realities of making it work in practice, which nobody has done.

 

Range extender battery trailers for hire ...  The battery belongs to the hire firm, so as long as it's good for your one journey you don't care about the state of the battery long term.  Only needed for journeys longer than your car's normal range. 

[IanD]

2 minutes ago, magnetman said:

An obvious advantage of this arrangement is that when someone comes up with a new chemistry which makes NMC look like a steam engine compared to a diesel engine this can be packaged into the same form factor as the existing unit. A car built around a battery module is relying on that particular battery being the best thing. Of course if you are selling cars then ideally you want someone to buy another one rather than just upgrade the battery. 

Which is why the car companies won't do it -- the consumers might gain but they will lose out.

[magpie patrick]

10 minutes ago, IanD said:

Upstream on rivers with fast-flowing currents (like the Ribble Link) is still the Achilles heel of battery electric boats. OTOH I suspect only a tiny fraction of boats ever have this problem, batteries and charging stations would meet the needs of 99% of boaters. What the 1% do is an interesting question -- bring back river tugs which charge for a tow?

Recognising this  ^^^^ is half the battle - and if the Ribble Link is beyond reach for now (I've specified that because of all the boating I've done on the connected network it was the most demanding on the engine - you have to fight the tide for the entire trip) then working out what the next ceiling is, or what ceiling the technology is capable of? If it's the umph that is the problem will it be possible to turn into West Stockwith Lock for example? If the endurance is a problem then most river routes, even tidal ones, can be overcome with enough charging points.

[IanD]

13 minutes ago, TheBiscuits said:

 

Range extender battery trailers for hire ...  The battery belongs to the hire firm, so as long as it's good for your one journey you don't care about the state of the battery long term.  Only needed for journeys longer than your car's normal range. 

That's a possibility, but how often do people actually make journeys longer than 300 miles or so? And would they want to tow a (heavy, speed-restricted) trailer behind them in this case?

 

What they'll do is what they do now; find a "supercharger", plug in, go and get a coffee, come back to a charged car.

 

The worldwide BEV industry is going this way for very good reasons -- it works technically, commercially and financially, and the alternatives (they've looked at all of them) don't.

Edited November 15, 2020 by IanD

[magnetman]

6 minutes ago, IanD said:

Battery swapping/BAAS has been proposed loads of times by lots of people; the problems are that all cars need to use the same size batteries (or a very small number of sizes), the logistics of who owns the batteries and how you know you're not getting a "bad" one, physical access into the cars to replace them -- it all sounds like a good idea until you look at the realities of making it work in practice in the capitalist world, which nobody has done.

 

At least in the West -- maybe it could work for Nio in China if the government there mandates "thou shalt all use this size of battery whether you like it or not", but there's no way this will work in the West with competing car manufacturers who are free to choose what they do (and resist being told by governments -- who can't agree with each other anyway), there's zero incentive for them to do it -- actually, the incentive is negative.

I was commenting on "what will actually happen" rather than political things and competition. 

 

Once the electric car thing gets going properly the system will revolve around removeable batteries. That will happen. It will take time but it will be the way it is done. If humans survive long enough! 

 

You could just as easily say the quality thing and dodgy dealers about oil based fuels but these are fairly well regulated by governments. We currently have an oil based transport economy. 

 

If that does change to becoming an electric based transport economy, which seems rather improbable but not impossible, it is quite likely that governments would take an interest in the energy store like they do with oil. 

 

It's a lot easier to regulate an energy supply which is separated from the vehicle...

 

 

[peterboat]

15 minutes ago, magnetman said:

Nio which is a Chinese ev maker has made quite a lot of progress. I don't think they are a flash in the pan myself. 

 

It's not that long ago that Tesla were seen as a toy car company never going anywhere and now look at them. I see a Tesla on virtually every journey I make in my car. 

 

Two different ways of doing electric cars. Musk is a salesman at the end of the day. He would rather sell people batteries than rent them. He has chosen his path and is selling a lot of cars. 

 

It doesn't necessarily mean that is the right way to do it. 

 

Battery As A Service is interesting given the rapid advances in battery technology taking place. 

 

Energy is a consumable product. Batteries don't last forever. 

 

If you could get a closed loop recycling arrangement and rent batteries to consumers it could work quite nicely I feel. 

 

 

ETA obviously on a boat you would have the main battery bank which you would own and would be rechargeable at a charging station. 

 

The swappable batteries would be smaller, let's say 20kg modules for ease of handling and if available in the same way as a bottle of gas you could swap the removeable battery/s regularly as required while still retaining your own "full tank" for boating when out of range of battery swap stations. 

 

It would be a range extender type of arrangement not the only energy store on the boat. 

Not going to happen for cars  it's not just electric cables its cooling and heating in the battery packs to much to go wrong as Renault found out cost them dearly 

[IanD]

10 minutes ago, magpie patrick said:

Recognising this  ^^^^ is half the battle - and if the Ribble Link is beyond reach for now (I've specified that because of all the boating I've done on the connected network it was the most demanding on the engine - you have to fight the tide for the entire trip) then working out what the next ceiling is, or what ceiling the technology is capable of? If it's the umph that is the problem will it be possible to turn into West Stockwith Lock for example? If the endurance is a problem then most river routes, even tidal ones, can be overcome with enough charging points.

Endurance is the problem, not power -- even a small BEV car has far more power than the biggest narrowboat needs in the strongest current. Or boaters who want to do this regularly will install bigger (100kWh?) battery packs, just like cars do. Or charging stations will have to be only a few miles (1-2 hours travel?) apart. Or tugs will make a comeback.

Edited November 15, 2020 by IanD

[peterboat]

1 minute ago, magnetman said:

I was commenting on "what will actually happen" rather than political things and competition. 

 

Once the electric car thing gets going properly the system will revolve around removeable batteries. That will happen. It will take time but it will be the way it is done. If humans survive long enough! 

 

You could just as easily say the quality thing and dodgy dealers about oil based fuels but these are fairly well regulated by governments. We currently have an oil based transport economy. 

 

If that does change to becoming an electric based transport economy, which seems rather improbable but not impossible, it is quite likely that governments would take an interest in the energy store like they do with oil. 

 

It's a lot easier to regulate an energy supply which is separated from the vehicle...

 

 

Andrew it wont happen the batteries are part of the car structure now in the future it's expected to become the structure and removable batteries are a dead end wish 

[IanD]

5 minutes ago, magnetman said:

I was commenting on "what will actually happen" rather than political things and competition. 

 

Once the electric car thing gets going properly the system will revolve around removeable batteries. That will happen. It will take time but it will be the way it is done. If humans survive long enough! 

 

You could just as easily say the quality thing and dodgy dealers about oil based fuels but these are fairly well regulated by governments. We currently have an oil based transport economy. 

 

If that does change to becoming an electric based transport economy, which seems rather improbable but not impossible, it is quite likely that governments would take an interest in the energy store like they do with oil. 

 

It's a lot easier to regulate an energy supply which is separated from the vehicle...

 

 

You're right, removable batteries for cars will definitely happen -- when all the Western governments and car companies get together and agree a common interoperable standard, which is to the advantage of consumers but to the disadvantage of both car companies and governments.

 

When do you think this will happen and why?

 

Political things and competition is what makes the world go round...

Edited November 15, 2020 by IanD

[magnetman]

1 minute ago, IanD said:

You're right, removable batteries for cars will definitely happen -- when all the Western governments and car companies get together and agree a common interoperable standard, which is to the advantage of consumers but to the disadvantage of both car companies and governments.

 

When do you think this will happen and why?

What will happen after a while is that the vast majority of car companies will end up using their manufacturing facilities to produce electric cars under license for the original electric car companies. 

 

Think VW manufactured Tesla vehicles and Ford manufactured Nio vehicles, as examples, in theory. 

 

Consolidation basically. Nothing new. 

 

Then you get competition between vehicles with onboard batteries and those with swappable batteries. Technical advances in batteries will mean the vehicles with batteries already built in will be at a disadvantage due to the highly taxed electric supply. 

 

So gradually you end up with just a single producer of hot-swappable battery cars. 

 

That's what will actually happen. 

 

And they will be available to buy on Amazon.  

 

 

[IanD]

2 minutes ago, magnetman said:

What will happen after a while is that the vast majority of car companies will end up using their manufacturing facilities to produce electric cars under license for the original electric car companies. 

 

Think VW manufactured Tesla vehicles and Ford manufactured Nio vehicles, as examples, in theory. 

 

Consolidation basically. Nothing new. 

 

Then you get competition between vehicles with onboard batteries and those with swappable batteries. Technical advances in batteries will mean the vehicles with batteries already built in will be at a disadvantage due to the highly taxed electric supply. 

 

So gradually you end up with just a single producer of hot-swappable battery cars. 

 

That's what will actually happen. 

 

And they will be available to buy on Amazon.  

 

 

Do you want to buy a bridge?

[magnetman]

1 minute ago, IanD said:

Do you want to buy a bridge?

Not particularly no.

[IanD]

Just now, magnetman said:

Not particularly no.

That's a pity, it has replaceable batteries ?

[peterboat]

13 minutes ago, magnetman said:

What will happen after a while is that the vast majority of car companies will end up using their manufacturing facilities to produce electric cars under license for the original electric car companies. 

 

Think VW manufactured Tesla vehicles and Ford manufactured Nio vehicles, as examples, in theory. 

 

Consolidation basically. Nothing new. 

 

Then you get competition between vehicles with onboard batteries and those with swappable batteries. Technical advances in batteries will mean the vehicles with batteries already built in will be at a disadvantage due to the highly taxed electric supply. 

 

So gradually you end up with just a single producer of hot-swappable battery cars. 

 

That's what will actually happen. 

 

And they will be available to buy on Amazon.  

 

 

At the moment I suspect in a new Tesla the batteries and drive train will fail some point beyond 300k miles in a couple of years time the number will be nearer 500k miles with most charging being done in the drive or from an on street power point battery changing is a pointless waste of time and worse destroys the integrity of the car

[magnetman]

@IanD

 

 

I just make my posts up on the spot. It's all my own views I don't consume opinion on the topic just technical details. 

 

 

Regarding the bridge. I presume this  is a moveable type. Would you care to expand on the details? 

 

Swing or lift? Or maybe it's one of those new fangled ones which drops down under the boat as you pass. 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by magnetman

[Sea Dog]

18 minutes ago, magnetman said:

So gradually you end up with just a single producer of hot-swappable battery cars. 

 

That's what will actually happen. 

 

And they will be available to buy on Amazon.  

But will they be Betamax or VHS?

[magnetman]

2 minutes ago, Sea Dog said:

But will they be Betamax or VHS?

No they will probably be Netflix

[Sea Dog]

2 minutes ago, magnetman said:

No they will probably be Netflix

Well, whoever wins this race will have a real Blockbuster on their hands... 

 

[magnetman]

5 minutes ago, peterboat said:

At the moment I suspect in a new Tesla the batteries and drive train will fail some point beyond 300k miles in a couple of years time the number will be nearer 500k miles with most charging being done in the drive or from an on street power point battery changing is a pointless waste of time and worse destroys the integrity of the car

It's more about regulation and control though isn't it. 

 

There is no way a government wants people to have cars they can freely charge up in their back yard using all sorts of things like diesel generators and solar panels. 

 

Strict control of the availability of energy will be the key. The only way to do that is to have authorised battery swap stations. 

 

Think RDCO. 

 

 

[Alan de Enfield]

1 minute ago, magnetman said:

It's more about regulation and control though isn't it. 

 

There is no way a government wants people to have cars they can freely charge up in their back yard using all sorts of things like diesel generators and solar panels. 

 

Strict control of the availability of energy will be the key. The only way to do that is to have authorised battery swap stations. 

 

Think RDCO. 

 

 

 

Does anyone not expect that very soon there will be 'duty' added to the electricity used to charge vehicles - "they" will somehow have to make up for the lost duty from petroleum fuels.

[Alan de Enfield]

4 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

I'd suggest that it is not a case of being permitted, more a case of being unaffordable / being priced out, and/or society not being prepared to subsidise a minority activity.

 

Boating will be permitted but the legislation affecting the propulsion methods will fall under the same rules as for motor vehicles - Sales of both new boats and new cars will be banned from 2035 and there are discussions about bringing the 'passenger vehicles' forward to 2030.

 

The British government has announced plans to bring forward an outright ban on the sale of all gasoline- and diesel-powered passenger cars—even hybrids—just 15 years from now.

 

Only Zero emission boats will be allowed in UK waters (Inland and coastal) after 2050.

 

Some smaller European countries have already set even more aggressive targets, with Norway banning conventional cars in 2025 and Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Iceland and the Netherlands aiming for 2030. Oh, and Scotland—determined as ever to be slightly ahead of the rest of the U.K.—wants to ban conventional car sales in 2032.

 

 

 

Its wrong on my Mercedes !!!!

 

 

Leaks today suggest the Government is about to announce the bringing forward of the ban on sales of new petrol & diesel cars to 2030

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/14/uk-expected-to-ban-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2030

 

Boris Johnson is understood to be planning to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars within a decade, with reports that the ban will be brought forward by five years.

It follows the prime minister moving the cut-off date from 2040 to 2035 in February.

 

Johnson is expected to announce the measure amid a raft of new environmental policies next week, according to a report in the Financial Times, which attributes the news to industry and Whitehall sources.

The government hopes the policy will energise the market for electric cars in the UK and help the country achieve its climate targets, including reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero by 2050.

[TheBiscuits]

1 hour ago, magnetman said:

It's more about regulation and control though isn't it. 

 

There is no way a government wants people to have cars they can freely charge up in their back yard using all sorts of things like diesel generators and solar panels.

 

I'm like "Stick it to the man with free electric, isn't it."

 

[peterboat]

1 hour ago, magnetman said:

It's more about regulation and control though isn't it. 

 

There is no way a government wants people to have cars they can freely charge up in their back yard using all sorts of things like diesel generators and solar panels. 

 

Strict control of the availability of energy will be the key. The only way to do that is to have authorised battery swap stations. 

 

Think RDCO. 

 

 

I actually think that they couldn't care less diesel will be to expensive and if you have solar why not use it yourself? Saves government getting bothered about it