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forestforestforest1

WHEN'S IT ALL GONNA OPEN??

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3 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

I'm staying in but I'm not cowering. The lockdown came just as I was learning how to be retired!

Pehaps you don't feel threatened by being hemmed in by people out and about taking no precautions then. Lucky you.

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5 hours ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

On previous weekend the figures dropped by a small percentage, this particular weekend it has dropped by 45,000,(122,000 to 76,0000) call me suspicious if you like but these figures are supposed to the the daily testing figure, not some one off 'achievement. I have to say I have been caught up in scams such as this in both public and private sector jobs. A PI (performance indicator) is set, everything else is dropped to achieve it and once that has been done, everything returns to normality and the PI is then forgotten about. 

The answer's simple : no post on Sundays.

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3 minutes ago, Iain_S said:

The answer's simple : no post on Sundays.

Or Saturdays now.

 

RM have suspended Saturday letter delivery

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6 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

Pehaps you don't feel threatened by being hemmed in by people out and about taking no precautions then. Lucky you.

 

I don't feel very threatened but I recognise my social responsibility not to spread the virus unknowingly. 

 

My general observation is that around here people are sticking to the rules - but then I live in a pleasant suburban area where folk look out for each other, and I haven't been anywhere else. 

4 hours ago, Tonka said:

Will those 40,000 get counted again when they do the test.

 

 

3 hours ago, Phil. said:

If it helps, of course.

 

How will they know? Will they bother to check the dates to avoid double counting?

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21 hours ago, LadyG said:

There is a problem with self testing in that it is intrusive, and there are lots of wimps out there, so lots of false negatives.

I'm not sure what we are going to do with these test results, is it to  satisfy a testing target, or to allow folks back to work if they are self isolating? There has to be a very slow return to normality, this may be one route, to be honest.

Personally I think my contribution to not spreading the disease is as restrictive as I can make it, and it is those who insist on refusing to stay at home, but go out shopping, in pairs, who are doing the most harm, not necessarily by one shopping trip, but by numerous shopping trips, ie essentially they think the rules don't apply to them, they have not got the message. Probably they are living in a bubble, it won't hit home 'till people they know get knocked out.

I am cc-ing very soon, I think that means  moving 50 metres from my current home mooring!

A friend of mine went to an official testing centre. She was asked to open her back window a couple of inches and a test kit was passed in for her to use and then pass out again. i.e. a self test.

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14 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

I don't feel very threatened but I recognise my social responsibility not to spread the virus unknowingly. 

 

My general observation is that around here people are sticking to the rules - but then I live in a pleasant suburban area where folk look out for each other, and I haven't been anywhere else. 

 

 

How will they know? Will they bother to check the dates to avoid double counting?

I strongly suspect that each test sent out or done at a test centre is numbered and listed on a database somewhere, I truly doubt the are just flinging random tests out with no control.

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13 minutes ago, Peter Thornton said:

A friend of mine went to an official testing centre. She was asked to open her back window a couple of inches and a test kit was passed in for her to use and then pass out again. i.e. a self test.

 

That was what happened with my test,

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27 minutes ago, tree monkey said:

I strongly suspect that each test sent out or done at a test centre is numbered and listed on a database somewhere, I truly doubt the are just flinging random tests out with no control.

 

On the other hand, do we honestly believe that there is joined-up government, given the fiasco over PPE procurement? 

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1 minute ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

On the other hand, do we honestly believe that there is joined-up government, given the fiasco over PPE procurement? 

 

The thing is that, in the normal run of things, government doesn't procure PPE. The users of PPE procure it.

 

Now, to take stuff like gowns;

 

Gowns have (believe it or not), a very short shelf life. I believe it is 6 months, That makes keeping a stockpile somewhat tricky,

 

Let's say that you keep a stock of gowns that is enough for 4 months normal use, and that you employ stock rotation. That means that you are continually trying to sell gowns that are short shelf-life, and nobody wants to pay full price, so you continually lose money on the stockpile.

 

Worse than that, the 4 month stockpile, which is about as much as you can keep without just throwing stuff away is for normal use. If you suddenly need 4 times as many gowns, your stockpile exhausts in a month.

 

When something bad happens there is never a shortage of people who have 20/20 hindsight on what should have been bought,

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4 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

On the other hand, do we honestly believe that there is joined-up government, given the fiasco over PPE procurement? 

Tbh and I am no fan of this government I do think the tests will be monitored very closely, it's fairly obvious the even to me as a none medical type the tests need to be logged, numbered, traced to a specific person.

If it turns out the idiots have actually been in charge and fecked up they should be held to account 

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9 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

On the other hand, do we honestly believe that there is joined-up government, given the fiasco over PPE procurement? 

Perhaps we could hi jack Diane Abbott to assist with the numbers? 

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4 hours ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

No, I'm fundamentally an optimist, but I also know the difference between good evidence and bad (ie non-) evidence. Wishing things were better does not make them so.

 

 

 

 

Glad to hear of your optimistic outlook. I would try and show it more often.  

 

It is not a matter of just wishing things to be better but looking for the positive in the evidence provided rather than trying to see the negative angle.  There is a great deal of difference.  It is nearly always possible to find what one is looking for either way.

 

The proof of that is in the subject at hand.  One can say "they have sent out 40K of home test kits. Yay that's great as that has not happened before" or one can say "The B'stards have included 40K of home tests sent out in the daily figures"  The former is rather more optimistic than the later.

Edited by churchward

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5 hours ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

The test method is only about 65% - 70% reliable. That's a huge margin of error, and the fact remains that not nearly enough tests have been done for any meaningful conclusions to be drawn. Yet.

 

 

Which test method are you talking about?

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2 hours ago, tree monkey said:

I strongly suspect that each test sent out or done at a test centre is numbered and listed on a database somewhere, I truly doubt the are just flinging random tests out with no control.

Apparently a percentage of the tests sent out for home testing went without a return label (https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/04/brits-told-bin-home-testing-kits-delivered-no-return-labels-12651669/  ), those who contacted the testing centres asking for either the address to send the test to or a return envelope were told to dump the kit and another kit would be sent to them. That would suggest that any numbering system doesn't come into play until the kit is returned.

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1 hour ago, mrsmelly said:

Perhaps we could hi jack Diane Abbott to assist with the numbers? 

 

You're a bit out of date, Tim - she is no longer in the shadow cabinet.

26 minutes ago, Rambling Boater said:

Which test method are you talking about?

 

The one Matt Hancock has been bragging about, of course. 

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Just now, Machpoint005 said:

 

You're a bit out of date, Tim - she is no longer in the shadow cabinet.

Exellent, if she is on the dole she may want a job?

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5 hours ago, peter n said:

I think that the deluge of advertising in general hasn't helped "public service messages" by inadvertantly training people to be good at ignoring what doesn't interest them.  For example I sometimes get irritated by excessive repetition of particular TV adverts, but when asked couldn't tell what it was they were trying to sell me.

Yes, you are right there. I immediately switch off mentally whenever any online gambling advert comes on since I have zero interest in them, I know that there are a lot of such adverts but I'd struggle to give the the name of one of the companies. The adverts are obviously placed to attract those who may interested but the rest of us completely zone out of them.

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30 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

Yes, you are right there. I immediately switch off mentally whenever any online gambling advert comes on since I have zero interest in them, I know that there are a lot of such adverts but I'd struggle to give the the name of one of the companies. The adverts are obviously placed to attract those who may interested but the rest of us completely zone out of them.

I didnt work for 46 years plus to give any away to any gambling companies. You only have to have a day at the races where most of us drive in and watch the dozens and dozens of flights of helicopters taking off and landing. Some of which are chartered by the likes of Ladbrokes to know there is only ever one winner.

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43 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

You're a bit out of date, Tim - she is no longer in the shadow cabinet.

 

The one Matt Hancock has been bragging about, of course. 

Can you give me a reference to that?

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1 hour ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

Apparently a percentage of the tests sent out for home testing went without a return label (https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/04/brits-told-bin-home-testing-kits-delivered-no-return-labels-12651669/  ), those who contacted the testing centres asking for either the address to send the test to or a return envelope were told to dump the kit and another kit would be sent to them. That would suggest that any numbering system doesn't come into play until the kit is returned.

You were clearly never involved, in the widespread practice of fiddling the detected crime numbers in your former profession, otherwise you would have recognised, that by sending out the tests without return labels, they can be sent out again thereby doubling your figures. A tried and tested method of creative massaging.

1 hour ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

You're a bit out of date, Tim - she is no longer in the shadow cabinet.

 

See, there is a silver cloud

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2 hours ago, Phil. said:

You were clearly never involved, in the widespread practice of fiddling the detected crime numbers in your former profession, otherwise you would have recognised, that by sending out the tests without return labels, they can be sent out again thereby doubling your figures. A tried and tested method of creative massaging.

 

Curious that it should be you that points out that they are fiddling the figures, but there you go;), all I was pointing out was that the numbering system the other poster referred to probably wasn't activated until the kit was returned.

 

The fiddling of crime figures was more in the realm of the undetected crime where, for instance, if we had too many burglaries a broken door lock would be recorded as 'Criminal Damage' rather than 'Attempted Burglary' or vice versa if there had been too much Criminal Damage and not many burglaries. I disapproved of it when called on to do it and still do, but the decisions were made by the crime screeners.

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18 hours ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

On the other hand, do we honestly believe that there is joined-up government, given the fiasco over PPE procurement? 

I am not sure there is evidence of much incompetence around the PPE procurement, which is largely down to civil service/military as well as numerous commercial private sector companies all of whom have a vested interest in doing as much as possible. The problem lay in the failure of government to take sufficiently seriously the guidance of the experts a few years back when all the political focus was on reducing public expenditure and building up a resilience to the self-inflicted economic glitch. Also, there was a willingness to do as little as possible and so the stockpile was based (as I read it) on the more probable and less expensive scenario of another flu outbreak (which we have been use to controlling quite well) rather than the higher risk of a new from of virus that needed a more robust response at much higher cost. The cost-benefit tradeoff led to inaction. Part of the background is the widespread ignorance and misunderstanding regarding risk. Too often I find people who believe that a 100 year risk event will only occur in a 100 years time - hence it is OK to forget about it. They also think something is wrong with the experts when two 100 year events take place in the space of three years, even when they are uncorrelated events.

 

Too many people in the public eye still think that it is OK to say "I was never any good at maths at school" when they would be vilified if they made the same remark regarding reading. Is comprehension still an educational goal?

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54 minutes ago, Mike Todd said:

I am not sure there is evidence of much incompetence around the PPE procurement, which is largely down to civil service/military as well as numerous commercial private sector companies all of whom have a vested interest in doing as much as possible. The problem lay in the failure of government to take sufficiently seriously the guidance of the experts a few years back when all the political focus was on reducing public expenditure and building up a resilience to the self-inflicted economic glitch. Also, there was a willingness to do as little as possible and so the stockpile was based (as I read it) on the more probable and less expensive scenario of another flu outbreak (which we have been use to controlling quite well) rather than the higher risk of a new from of virus that needed a more robust response at much higher cost. The cost-benefit tradeoff led to inaction. Part of the background is the widespread ignorance and misunderstanding regarding risk. Too often I find people who believe that a 100 year risk event will only occur in a 100 years time - hence it is OK to forget about it. They also think something is wrong with the experts when two 100 year events take place in the space of three years, even when they are uncorrelated events.

 

Too many people in the public eye still think that it is OK to say "I was never any good at maths at school" when they would be vilified if they made the same remark regarding reading. Is comprehension still an educational goal?

 

Businesses obviously missed an opportunity to plan for the event as well. I haven't noticed that sector not running around like 'headless chickens' with their hands out. Let's hope the commercial sector puts some money away, for the next time. 2008, 2020, Predictions? We're going to have a bigger national debt, more interest to pay, even less money, for the things we need to spend money on. Pretty much the situation, before this problem hit. 

 

 

Edited by Higgs
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7 minutes ago, Higgs said:

We're going to have a bigger national debt, more interest to pay, even less money, for the things we need to spend money on. Pretty much the situation, before this problem hit. 

 

Covid-19 aftermath exacerbated by Brexit. Or the other way around.

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