The pricing of boats another £150k hopefull NB Stafford

[david and julie]

Interestingly, the same is true in the car market apparently - new cars are not selling, yet second hand cars are enjoying the best trading conditions for several years, with values increasing.

Really, values are increasing? have you a source to back that up.

I still fail to see a direct correlation between house prices and boat prices. The average house price between 1990 and 2008 rose 201%. The average inland waterways boat price did not, or anywhere near that. In real terms they probably stayed about level. So I am yet to be convinced that they will suffer the same dramatic falls. Why should they?

Hang on Dominic you've just quoted Julian, but from what I can see he never even made a correlation between houses and boats - as an aside - he said nobody believed him when he said houses would fall.

 

Both you, and anyone thinking old boats are worth £150K, must be living in fantasy land if you truly believe the boat market is going to be unaffected by the current conditions. Boats are a hobby for most and a home for some - off course they will drop in value and its ridiculous to think they won't. I've yet to see a brokerage site - including your own - that doesn't show boats that have been reduced in price.

[Timleech]

could try bob as well he might have them

http://www.classicenginesandspares.co.uk/

 

I'd be extremely surprised if he had, in fact so surprised that I didn't ask when I saw him yesterday

 

Tim

[Dominic M]

Really, values are increasing? have you a source to back that up.

I did qualify that comment with the word "apparently" but there is a view out there that second car values are increasing. Sainsbury's have reported an increase in people seeking loans for second hand cars, probably driven by people who do not want to buy new in the current climate. And this is an article from This Is Money which concurs with that. Of course, they may be wrong, but economic forecasting is not an exact science, if it is a science at all. I also had a customer this weekend who tells me that he regularly gets an online quote from one of these used car buying sites - bestcarbuyer.co.uk for example, and that in the last 3 months the price offered for his car has risen by several hundred pounds. So I think it is an interesting theory, at least. And, as I wrote, at the moment the second hand boat market remains buoyant.

Hang on Dominic you've just quoted Julian, but from what I can see he never even made a correlation between houses and boats - as an aside - he said nobody believed him when he said houses would fall.

 

Both you, and anyone thinking old boats are worth £150K, must be living in fantasy land if you truly believe the boat market is going to be unaffected by the current conditions. Boats are a hobby for most and a home for some - off course they will drop in value and its ridiculous to think they won't. I've yet to see a brokerage site - including your own - that doesn't show boats that have been reduced in price.

I think by implication there was a correlation with house prices. Certainly the view that boats may decline in value by up to 35% echoes the worst case scenario of the housing market pundits. Perhaps they will, perhaps they won't - none of us has a crystal ball. Not for one moment am I taking any other view than one of realism and allowing for the possibility that the market may slow right down - not so much a drop in values but simply less buyers at any price. It has been a pleasant surprise so far that it has not happened.

 

I never said I thought the boat that kicked off this topic is worth £150k. Nor have I said it isn't. I'm offering no view on its value - I haven't even seen it. All I can say is that if its owner is happy to put that value you on it, then I wish him well.

 

Finally, throughout good times and bad, every broker will have a few boats which have been reduced from their initial asking price.

 

Edited to remove rogue url link.

Edited February 23, 2009 by Dominic M

[LEO]

I never said I thought the boat that kicked off this topic is worth £150k. Nor have I said it isn't. I'm offering no view on its value - I haven't even seen it. All I can say is that if its owner is happy to put that value you on it, then I wish him well.

 

Wise words - shame others on this site do not follow this example, or go and look at it before offering advice (advice, which thanks to the internet is offered to all, on a world wide basis)..

 

Good indicators of a forthcoming recession within the housing market (after careful studies of previous ones) - rapid price rises of houses, up to six times annual income multipliers used for assessing loans, self certified mortgages, 100% mortgages, estate agents BMW's being less than a year old, narrowboat asking prices routinely topping £100K. and some making that figure.

 

Leo

Edited February 23, 2009 by LEO

[bargeeboy]

Didn't know Malcolm had a younger brother !!!

 

Chris

 

Been 'Single' for 6 months. Takes years off you !!

[Dominic M]

Good indicators of a forthcoming recession within the housing market (after careful studies of previous ones) - rapid price rises of houses, up to six times annual income multipliers used for assessing loans, self certified mortgages, 100% mortgages, estate agents BMW's being less than a year old, narrowboat asking prices routinely topping £100K. and some making that figure.

 

Leo

:lol:

 

Indicator that the recession has arrived: estate agent driving new Yaris.

[carlt]

Wise words - shame others on this site do not follow this example, or go and look at it before offering advice (advice, which thanks to the internet is offered to all, on a world wide basis)..

I really don't think Charles was offering Malcom "advice" (he hardly needs it, after all) but offering an opinion, which seems fair enough, to me.

 

Forums are driven as much by opinions, as advice, and this makes them far more interesting than if it was merely a question and answer site where only "experts" are allowed to offer responses.

[GUMPY]

It depends what sector of the market you are looking at. There is no doubt that orders for new boats are badly hit, and builders are falling by the wayside. But the second hand market remains buoyant. Interestingly, the same is true in the car market apparently - new cars are not selling, yet second hand cars are enjoying the best trading conditions for several years, with values increasing.

 

I still fail to see a direct correlation between house prices and boat prices. The average house price between 1990 and 2008 rose 201%. The average inland waterways boat price did not, or anywhere near that. In real terms they probably stayed about level. So I am yet to be convinced that they will suffer the same dramatic falls. Why should they?

 

I didnt make a correlation between house prices and boat prices just used that to say no one believed me at the time.

 

Having said that I believe that the fall will be across the board just as it has been in house prices, I have been looking at buying a small yacht most of the ones I looked at have been around for a while and were up at 7-10,000 with no offers or sales. I managed to buy the same type of yacht that has had over 10,000 spent on it since 2004 ( new engine etc) for 3600 because the owner had priced at a selling price not whet he thought it was worth.

 

One of my old narrowboats is up for sale at the moment ( http://canalboatsales.homestead.com/Slow_M...n_Brochure.PDF) for 22,500 that is nearly 40% more than I paid for her in 1997 and 30% more then I sold he for in 2002 so there have been some decent rises providing it sells at that price.

I have to say that the internal pictures appear to be the same ones that I used when I sold it in 2002 and it still has the same paint job that was done in 1996.

 

J

[chieftiff]

It's funny how different people measure value, our recent infatuation with auctions on tv, E-bay and the like has led people to believe that the value of something is what someone will pay, the truth is that what someone is prepared to pay is it's upper value. The true value of anything is the price it's owner is willing to accept for it. The true value of any boat can be easily quantified as the cost of materials and the cost of building it + a measure of profit; it's the measure of profit that remains the "flexible" bit.

 

A boat like the one in the thread is obviously aimed at a target buyer, I'd assume the builder has done his homework and considers that the target buyer recognises it's value at £150k.

 

Boat prices are set to fall, boating is (for the majority) a hobby/pastime and it therefore relies on spare cash, if people don't feel they have the spare cash whether to buy, improve or moor then they aren't going to spend, if they don't spend then brokers/ sellers/ builders are stuck with a depreciating asset; they will then reduce the price (or some will and the rest will be forced to follow) in recognition of the "new" value. The market steel price has fallen by 2/3rds in a year, that will eventually feed through to new builds in the form of "discounts" initially and ultimately a re-valuation of the asset (remember materials + costs + profit) we are also edging ever closer to negative inflation - minimal wage rises etc. All of this would indicate that the flexible bit in the value will have to be decreased. But, when all that's said and done boats like anything else have a minimum value (including minimum profit) so the question is how low can they go? (not as far as the 35% suggested earlier in the thread I'd say, even boat salesmen have to make a living )

Edited February 23, 2009 by chieftiff

[Dominic M]

Boat prices are set to fall.

Personally, I would preface that with the words, "I think". You don't know that to be the case, and you fail to distinguish between new and used.

 

You have no hard and fast information to back up that contention.

 

Like too many people at the moment, you seek to talk down the economy, revelling in doom and refusing to look at signs of hope and recovery.

[Hairy-Neil]

Boats really are worth what people will pay for them. It always used to amaze/amuse me that Ownerships could buy a 30K boat from one of the best known budget builders and sell 12 x 5k shares in it.......

[mrsmelly]

Boats really are worth what people will pay for them. It always used to amaze/amuse me that Ownerships could buy a 30K boat from one of the best known budget builders and sell 12 x 5k shares in it.......

 

Crikey dont u lot just bullshit for England.Forget the present economic climate it is just a blip...........I started boating in 1973 in the past twenty years I have owned 5 narrowboats ALL of which I have sold for more than I paid for them. its a fact...........I Live on one now and could sell it now for at least what I paid for it 2 years ago............Dont be so serious, life is 2 short................

Edited February 24, 2009 by mrsmelly

[chris w]

............ I have owned 5 narrowboats ALL of which I have sold for more than I paid for them.

Are you talking in monetary terms or real terms?

 

Don't forget that you have to devalue the money you get from any sale by the amount of interest you had to forego each year, from spending the capital, (or the interest you paid if you needed a loan) and the devaluation of the money due to inflation. In normal times, that's at least a 10% annual loss on the initial capital outlay, so you need to do a discounted cashflow on the deal.

 

Thus, if you paid say £50K for a boat and sold it 3 years later for £50K, that £50K will actually only be worth £38K in real terms so it's a £12K loss. Even if you sold it for £55K, its value in real terms is only £41K - still a £9K loss.

 

Chris

[MoominPapa]

interest you had to forego each year, from spending the capital, (or the interest you paid if you needed a loan) and the devaluation of the money due to inflation. In normal times, that's at least a 10% annual loss on the initial capital outlay,.

Well RPI is near as makes no difference zero, so the important question for chris w is WHERE CAN I GET 10% INTEREST ON SAVINGS. That would be good to know. (and yes I did see the "normal times" caveat )

 

MP.

[chris w]

WHERE CAN I GET 10% INTEREST ON SAVINGS. That would be good to know.......

MP.

For a fee of 10% of the capital, I'll show you where...........

 

It's all about risk/reward

 

Chris

Edited February 24, 2009 by chris w

[Dominic M]

Are you talking in monetary terms or real terms?

 

Don't forget that you have to devalue the money you get from any sale by the amount of interest you had to forego each year, from spending the capital, (or the interest you paid if you needed a loan) and the devaluation of the money due to inflation. In normal times, that's at least a 10% annual loss on the initial capital outlay, so you need to do a discounted cashflow on the deal.

 

Thus, if you paid say £50K for a boat and sold it 3 years later for £50K, that £50K will actually only be worth £38K in real terms so it's a £12K loss. Even if you sold it for £55K, its value in real terms is only £41K - still a £9K loss.

 

Chris

You just have to spoil everything, don't you Chris.

 

Edited to add: Of course, if you had bought the boat 3 years ago and paid £50k and sold it today for £55k your loss due to inflation might be around zero, and if you had bought the boat instead of placing the money in an offshore account with an Icelandic bank based on the Isle of Man you would have made £50k . And if you had bought the boat to live on instead of putting the money into property, you would still be better off, as the average property is now said to be worth the price it was four years ago, saved yourself a fortune in utility bills and council tax, and had a great btime to boot upon which no cash value may be placed.

 

Well RPI is near as makes no difference zero, so the important question for chris w is WHERE CAN I GET 10% INTEREST ON SAVINGS. That would be good to know. (and yes I did see the "normal times" caveat )

 

MP.

Sponsoring a boat in a hire fleet is reckoned to bring an annual return of between 8 - 10% - according to a woman I know who has several on the go. Also my mates down at Oxfordshire Narrowboats suggest a similar return. And, no, there's nothing in it for me if you do this .

Edited February 24, 2009 by Dominic M

[chieftiff]

Personally, I would preface that with the words, "I think". You don't know that to be the case, and you fail to distinguish between new and used.

 

You have no hard and fast information to back up that contention.

 

Like too many people at the moment, you seek to talk down the economy, revelling in doom and refusing to look at signs of hope and recovery.

 

I'd actually preface it with "I'm certain" I put a value to things all the time, like you it's my job to do just that. Every single proposal/ tender I've prepared in the last couple of months has shown better value than it did perhaps 6 months ago. No specific reason for that (except perhaps a small reflection of the shrinking steel price and it's greater availability) contractors are just trying to demonstrate that they can offer better value in a competitive market with the aim of winning contracts.

 

It would be a funny world if boats didn't bow to those market pressures. There will always be niche markets that escape the general economic trend, I suspect vintage narrowboats may be one of those but I wouldn't bet on it, I'm certain that boats in general will not be attracting the droves of buyers this year that they did in the last few years. Hire fleets will benefit undoubtedly (euro exchange rates) in fact I've never seen so many hire boats on the system this early in the year before!

 

I'm certainly not trying to talk down the economy it will recover in good time, I've lived through two of these and they always do; I'm being realistic, the 3 wise monkeys' inability to see, hear or speak evil didn't stop it happening.

[chris w]

You just have to spoil everything, don't you Chris.

 

Edited to add: Of course, if you had bought the boat 3 years ago and paid £50k and sold it today for £55k your loss due to inflation might be around zero, and if you had bought the boat instead of placing the money in an offshore account with an Icelandic bank based on the Isle of Man you would have made £50k . And if you had bought the boat to live on instead of putting the money into property, you would still be better off, as the average property is now said to be worth the price it was four years ago, saved yourself a fortune in utility bills and council tax, and had a great btime to boot upon which no cash value may be placed.

Ah, but property is a long term investment and will eventually rise again. There are already indications that the house market is bottoming out; the price of an average house apparently rose by 1.9% in December according to the January reports. Will that be repeated in January or was it just an end-of-year blip... we shall see?

 

A narrowboat however is never a long nor a short term investment and, even over the last three years, despite all the recent troubles you would still be well down in real terms. Remember that even as recently as last summer, Joe Public did not forsee what was happening. Further, even those Icelandic customers have been bailed out by the Government.

 

So enjoy a boat for what it gives you - for what it gives you is certainly not monetary gain but emotional gain.

 

Chris

[sociable_hermit]

Well RPI is near as makes no difference zero, so the important question for chris w is WHERE CAN I GET 10% INTEREST ON SAVINGS. That would be good to know. (and yes I did see the "normal times" caveat )

 

MP.

 

Try lending on Zopa? Risk and reward, as Chris W says.

 

Ok so not a savings account as such, but still potentially a nice little earner if you spread the risk.

[Dominic M]

So enjoy a boat for what it gives you - for what it gives you is certainly not monetary gain but emotional gain.

 

Chris

Absolutely right. I always tell people who use the word "investment" when enquiring about buying a boat that it is not a financial investment. It can, however, be an investment in a lot of fun and pleasure which is immeasurable. Which is surely what money is for. As they say, you can't take it with you.

 

Yup, a reported small rise in house prices (Halifax figures I think), falling oil prices, falling raw material prices, several retailers such as Primark reporting considerable sales increase and healthy profit forecasts. My 5 year old Peugeot 307 worth 73p more than it was in December. Much depends upon what the media and members of the public choose to focus on. At the moment, too many are homing in on everything negative. The phrase, "self fulfilling prophesy" springs to mind.

 

Is it too early for a glass of vintage champagne?

[carlt]

Absolutely right. I always tell people who use the word "investment" when enquiring about buying a boat that it is not a financial investment. It can, however, be an investment in a lot of fun and pleasure which is immeasurable. Which is surely what money is for. As they say, you can't take it with you.

 

Yup, a reported small rise in house prices (Halifax figures I think), falling oil prices, falling raw material prices, several retailers such as Primark reporting considerable sales increase and healthy profit forecasts.

Apparently Domino's pizza are creating loads of jobs, too!

 

Great news, for the burger flipping nation we have become.

[Dominic M]

Apparently Domino's pizza are creating loads of jobs, too!

BUY WHEAT FUTURES!!!!

[Hairy-Neil]

Crikey dont u lot just bullshit for England.

 

The early Ownerships boats were built by Pat Buckle on Ward Marine? hulls. At the time Pat would build you a similar boat for 30K...... How do you think Ownerships managed to donate a boat to the IWA if they weren't selling shares at more than value?

[Timleech]

The early Ownerships boats were built by Pat Buckle on Ward Marine? hulls. At the time Pat would build you a similar boat for 30K...... How do you think Ownerships managed to donate a boat to the IWA if they weren't selling shares at more than value?

 

As I recall the hulls were very lightly built

More recent OS boats seem to be much better in that respect.

 

Tim

[Hairy-Neil]

.

Great news, for the burger flipping nation we have become.

 

A local charity are running a pancake event to raise funds. The organisers have been donated all the flour and other ingredients, and loaned the pans. They just need a tosser.....