Where are all the boaters?

[MtB]

16 minutes ago, IanD said:

I'm arguing with your reasoning, which seems to be that boater costs have gone up much more than everybody else's costs -- and this doesn't seem to be true, *everybody* is paying more for almost *everything* nowadays, boaters aren't being especially hard done by. Unless you can come up with some specific cases -- like red diesel -- all the others are just a general cost-of-living complaint.

 

So making out that boaters are somehow a special type of victim (and it's all CART's fault...) doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Many other leisure activities have also seen fewer numbers recently, it's what happens when people's finances get squeezed.

 

I've been hiring narrowboats and holiday cottages for many years. They've both got considerably more expensive in recent years, by roughly the same amount.

 

 

Something has however, in my opinion, happened recently. The "Combustion Chamber" forum for gas bods is full of people saying the phone has stopped ringing this last month or two and they are all scratching about for work. I'm wondering if the 13 interest rate rises we've had recently are finally beginning to bite. 

 

It is often said that a base rate rise takes a year to work through and affect the spending habits of the Hoi poloi. If this is correct then we've seen nothing yet in terms of people reigning in their personal spending.

 

I wouldn't mind betting the boat builders if asked, would say they've had fewer (or no) orders in recently than they expected.

 

 

Edited April 29 by MtB
Fiddle with it...

[IanD]

7 minutes ago, MtB said:

 

Something has however, in my opinion, happened recently. The "Combustion Chamber" forum for gas bods is full of people saying the phone has stopped ringing this last month or two and they are all scratching about for work. I'm wondering if the 13 interest rate rises we've had recently are finally beginning to bite. 

 

It is often said that a base rate rise takes a year to work through and affect the spending habits of the Hoi poloi. If this is correct then we've seen nothing yet in terms of people reigning in their personal spending.

 

 

Interest rate rises are a big problem for the people coming off cheap fixed-rate mortgages that they took on before 2020 before Covid hit and Ukraine happened and Brexit bit -- especially if they took out huge mortgages at rock-bottom rates which are unaffordable at higher rates, with payments anything up to doubling. This has hammered the finances of a lot of people, who suddenly haven't got the spare cash any more for things like home improvements or refits. There's also the fact that in uncertain times people are less inclined to spend money, which hits businesses which rely one this -- including gas bods, but also pubs and restaurants... 😞 

 

Though it has to be said not boaters, who are not suffering from this particular problem, just the general cost increases to everything else... 😞 

Edited April 29 by IanD

[Stephen Sugg]

One more comparison, I'm hiring a campervan in June to go to the Download festival, it's a brand new RollerTeam 707 or something, not entirely sure, never hired one before, Wednesday to a Monday in June, everything (apart from diesel) included £750.

[IanD]

6 minutes ago, Stephen Sugg said:

One more comparison, I'm hiring a campervan in June to go to the Download festival, it's a brand new RollerTeam 707 or something, not entirely sure, never hired one before, Wednesday to a Monday in June, everything (apart from diesel) included £750.

Which is not surprising since new they cost about a third (£70k) of what a hire narrowboat does.

 

Boat hire *is* expensive nowadays, as is anything else where you rent something expensive e.g. a holiday cottage, or a stately home. If you rent something cheaper (e.g. a motorhome or caravan), it's cheaper to rent. Not much surprise there...

 

Which may well explain why there are fewer hire boats out there -- and also why holiday cottage rentals have dropped considerably, according to a friend who owns one. When people have less money or feel more uncertain with what's happening in the country/world, they take fewer/cheaper holidays.

Edited April 29 by IanD

[Lady M]

I'm afraid you have completely misinterpreted 'my reasoning', Ian.  As you now say, all holiday costs have increased, and this is the underlying reason why there are fewer moving boats around.  For those on lower and/or fixed incomes, the impact has been greater.  That doesn't mean we are tired of boating, not even after many years in some cases, just that we have to budget more carefully.

[IanD]

14 minutes ago, Lady M said:

I'm afraid you have completely misinterpreted 'my reasoning', Ian.  As you now say, all holiday costs have increased, and this is the underlying reason why there are fewer moving boats around.  For those on lower and/or fixed incomes, the impact has been greater.  That doesn't mean we are tired of boating, not even after many years in some cases, just that we have to budget more carefully.

In that case we agree, and I did misinterpret what you said 🙂 

 

I was arguing with the posts that came across as boater-as-victim (and CART-as-villain) complaints, whether that was the intended meaning or not. I reckon boaters have got off more lightly than many other people (e.g. renters, people hit by massive mortgage increases) in recent years -- which isn't saying they're not suffering, but so is everyone else, some more.

 

Well, except Sunak and Rees-Smugg and his mates, they're in the gravy... 😞 

 

And now, some *really* disastrous news for boaters... 😞

 

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-wet-weather-could-push-up-price-of-bread-beer-and-biscuits-13125587

Edited April 29 by IanD

[Hudds Lad]

30 minutes ago, Stephen Sugg said:

One more comparison, I'm hiring a campervan in June to go to the Download festival, it's a brand new RollerTeam 707 or something, not entirely sure, never hired one before, Wednesday to a Monday in June, everything (apart from diesel) included £750.

That'll be almost as much as the tickets!  

Last time i camped at Donny for the MoR it was £25, mind you it was 30yrs ago 😱

[Rob-M]

22 minutes ago, Hudds Lad said:

That'll be almost as much as the tickets!  

Last time i camped at Donny for the MoR it was £25, mind you it was 30yrs ago 😱

I was there around the same time, myself and a couple of mates hired a transit van for the weekend and slept in the back of it amongst the crates of beer.

[Hudds Lad]

1 minute ago, Rob-M said:

I was there around the same time, myself and a couple of mates hired a transit van for the weekend and slept in the back of it amongst the crates of beer.

Yeah, did that for a couple of years as one of my mates was old enough to hire a transit (only 21 then, think it's 25 now), last time was very much glamping with my new girlfriend (as in it was an actual tent with an inflatable mattress!! She became my wife )

[TheBiscuits]

2 minutes ago, Hudds Lad said:

last time was very much glamping with my new girlfriend (as in it was an actual tent with an inflatable mattress!! She became my wife )

 

I thought just the £25 sounded expensive for decades ago...

[Tigerr]

I went to the big Burstner dealer in Lincoln to have my motorhome serviced, and was hoping to sell it. The place was rammed with stock they are now starting to discount, and they are taking no used motorhomes in for sale. This is stark contrast to the last few years. I'd got used to fending enquiries off, for more than I bought the vehicle, in the last 3 years. 

The dealer said the market has decisively downturned, due to a combination of prices rising, cost of living rising, and people reverting to holidays in sunnier places that cost less. He said I could expect a significantly reduced sale price now too. 

I expect something similar is happening in the narrowboat space. It's much cheaper to go abroad now than to holiday in the UK. 

[Naughty Cal]

9 minutes ago, Tigerr said:

I went to the big Burstner dealer in Lincoln to have my motorhome serviced, and was hoping to sell it. The place was rammed with stock they are now starting to discount, and they are taking no used motorhomes in for sale. This is stark contrast to the last few years. I'd got used to fending enquiries off, for more than I bought the vehicle, in the last 3 years. 

The dealer said the market has decisively downturned, due to a combination of prices rising, cost of living rising, and people reverting to holidays in sunnier places that cost less. He said I could expect a significantly reduced sale price now too. 

I expect something similar is happening in the narrowboat space. It's much cheaper to go abroad now than to holiday in the UK. 

We do still browse the boat brokers websites and there has definitely been an increase in the number of boats for sale with some hefty reductions on some.

 

Hadn't really noticed with the vans because we have not been looking with no plans to sell ours, but yes it does seem that numbers for sale have ticked up. Autotrader has been since we bought ours in 2021 ticking along with around 150 vans across the Benimar range for sale at any one time. Just checked now and it's closer to 260.

[Arthur Marshall]

2 hours ago, Lady M said:

I'm afraid you have completely misinterpreted 'my reasoning', Ian.  As you now say, all holiday costs have increased, and this is the underlying reason why there are fewer moving boats around.  For those on lower and/or fixed incomes, the impact has been greater.  That doesn't mean we are tired of boating, not even after many years in some cases, just that we have to budget more carefully.

That's it, really. For us leisure boaters, all our fixed costs at home have gone up hugely, so there is less money to spare for playing with toys - especially as the fixed costs for them have whacked up too. Most of us of a certain age have much less spare cash. A boat holiday used to be cheaper than staying at home, now it's a lot more expensive.
For narina moorers, they may well just go for a week at the mooring rather than cruising - I know a few who just enjoy the social life at the marina club, treating the boat like a country cottage.

[Stephen Sugg]

2 hours ago, Hudds Lad said:

That'll be almost as much as the tickets!  

Last time i camped at Donny for the MoR it was £25, mind you it was 30yrs ago 😱

Tickets are not cheap!  Then you have to pay for actually camping. I went year before last which was the first time since MoR in 1996, up until then I was pretty regular. It'll be a laugh

[David Mack]

22 hours ago, IanD said:

Which may well explain why there are fewer hire boats out there -- and also why holiday cottage rentals have dropped considerably, according to a friend who owns one.

 

21 hours ago, Tigerr said:

The dealer said the market has decisively downturned, due to a combination of prices rising, cost of living rising, and people reverting to holidays in sunnier places that cost less.

Things do seem to be slowing down.

 

"Britain’s staycation boom may be over as bookings dry up.

The cost of living, cold weather and a surplus of holiday lets have hit rental property owners in both cities and the seaside"

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

 

[IanD]

21 hours ago, TheBiscuits said:

 

I thought just the £25 sounded expensive for decades ago...

Probably not as expensive as a wife though... 😉 

[Tonka]

hire fleets rely on cleaners who have all recently had their pay go up because the government increased the minimum wage rates. Youngsters are also getting a bigger rise then they would have got normally. This money comes from the hire company so they have to put up their prices.

Simple facts

[IanD]

26 minutes ago, Tonka said:

hire fleets rely on cleaners who have all recently had their pay go up because the government increased the minimum wage rates. Youngsters are also getting a bigger rise then they would have got normally. This money comes from the hire company so they have to put up their prices.

Simple facts

And like any other business all their other costs will have gone up significantly recently -- power, fuel, base heating/lighting, materials, supplies, spare parts -- with some of these having gone up by considerably more than inflation or wages.

 

Anyone who thinks hire bases are ripping people off by raising their prices is conveniently ignoring all this. There might also be a clue in the number of hire bases that have shut down or are up for sale, rather suggesting that it's difficult making a decent living out of running one... 😞 

[Hudds Lad]

2 minutes ago, IanD said:

There might also be a clue in the number of hire bases that have shut down or are up for sale, rather suggesting that it's difficult making a decent living out of running one... 😞

Out of interest, i went to look how much a hire from Silsden Boats would be now compared to when we first hired in 2015 and if they still included diesel in the price. Seems they've been swallowed up by Anglo Welsh now  

[MtB]

3 minutes ago, IanD said:

And like any other business all their other costs will have gone up significantly recently -- power, fuel, base heating/lighting, materials, supplies, spare parts -- with some of these having gone up by considerably more than inflation or wages.

 

Anyone who thinks hire bases are ripping people off by raising their prices is conveniently ignoring all this. There might also be a clue in the number of hire bases that have shut down or are up for sale, rather suggesting that it's difficult making a decent living out of running one... 😞 

 

 

And at a tangent, if one does some fag packet calcs to assess the viability of a marina - comparing the income less top level costs (council tax, wages, pontoon and site maintenance) - with the value of the land it amazes me any of them bother.

[David Mack]

1 minute ago, MtB said:

 

 

And at a tangent, if one does some fag packet calcs to assess the viability of a marina - comparing the income less top level costs (council tax, wages, pontoon and site maintenance) - with the value of the land it amazes me any of them bother.

When BW revised their marina approvals process and introduced the NAA in the mid 2000s, they issued a document setting out why they thought the new arrangements would encourage new marina development by commercial organisations. That included some illustrative finance figures setting out the likely marina income and expenditure, showing a reasonable return on the capital investment. But the thing that struck me at the time was that the numbers only stacked up if all the ducks were in a row and facing in the same direction. To be viable you had to have a high occupancy of the moorings, a hire boat operation on site, chandlery, fuel sales, boat maintenance and repair facilities, brokerage etc. all contributing income. I thought this all smacked of desperation to make it work, when many operators might only be interested in something simpler.

[IanD]

17 minutes ago, Hudds Lad said:

Out of interest, i went to look how much a hire from Silsden Boats would be now compared to when we first hired in 2015 and if they still included diesel in the price. Seems they've been swallowed up by Anglo Welsh now  

The same seems to be happening with marinas, smaller/less flash ones being swallowed up by the bigger operators who can use economies of scale to reduce costs -- for example, Uplands is now owned by ABC, like Anderton across the way...

Edited April 30 by IanD

[David Mack]

40 minutes ago, IanD said:

The same seems to be happening with marinas, smaller/less flash ones being swallowed up by the bigger operators who can use economies of scale to reduce costs -- for example, Uplands is now owned by ABC, like Anderton across the way...

And what is the impact on prices of less competition?

[IanD]

7 minutes ago, David Mack said:

And what is the impact on prices of less competition?

That depends on whether the bigger marina groups charge more than the small standalone ones. Big suppliers in many areas (supermarkets? equipment suppliers?) are often cheaper, unless they abuse their market dominance to jack prices up -- they can get lower prices on supplies and services, share people out (e.g. maintenance) across multiple locations, and have access to cheap capital to tide them over rough periods when a small operator might just go bust.

 

I don't think owning/running a marina (or a hire base!) is a license to print money, especially smaller standalone ones who still have to do everything themselves -- which is why they sell out to bigger groups when the going gets tough, which it undoubtedly has done recently.

Edited April 30 by IanD

[Mike Todd]

7 hours ago, IanD said:

The same seems to be happening with marinas, smaller/less flash ones being swallowed up by the bigger operators who can use economies of scale to reduce costs -- for example, Uplands is now owned by ABC, like Anderton across the way...

And a recent brief glance at ABC accounts suggest that their growth is based on leveraging purchases via debt. A typical process these days but if the underlying business is sensitive to interest rates can end in tears.