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On 20/02/2021 at 13:01, Arthur Marshall said:

Another of the endlessly confusing statistics. They keep saying that last week, 1 in 100 people had the virus. At one stage at the height of it, it was about 4 in a hundred. As the infection only lasts a couple of weeks, and it's now been rambling about for a year, you would think, on those numbers, just about everyone should have had it by now, especially as they can only count the ones they know about, which is a max of 70%. So the (presumably) resulting immunity should mean infections come down slowly anyway, in addition to the vaccination effect.

it might also explain why it needs to keep mutating to survive.

For much of the year it's been well under 1 in 100.  Infection typically lasts longer than 2 weeks.  So no, nowhere near everyone should have had it by now.  Having said that, it seems a given that many more people have had it than have tested positive.  Randomised testing had consistently shown higher prevalence than previously thought.  Early on, there was very little testing.  More recently, there are 2 issues:

 

1.  People who don't show symptoms and don't realise they need a test.

2.  People who actively avoid getting a test because the government support isn't there for lost income, or because their employer is applying pressure. 

 

We've had over 4 million positive tests in this country.  The true number of infections is probably well over 10 million.

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On 20/02/2021 at 13:43, Alan de Enfield said:

 

There seemed to be some knowledge of C19 VERY early in Dec 2019 & Jan 2020, and certainly prior to the 29th.

 

Looking back I was concerned enough with the news that I bought dozens of FFP3 (medical virus proof) masks from Tool Station and some 5 litre containers of alcohol hand gel around the end of Jan. The masks were removed from the Toolstation website a few days later.

 

I am still using the masks and the gel now.

I was looking to buy masks online end of January 2020 but was put off by the cost and the long delivery times.  I expect supplies were being diverted to China at the time.  I thought I'd wait until the price dropped.  It didn't.  So I ordered some at end of March just as we entered lockdown 1 and they arrived at the beginning of April.  I could have got some flimsy crap ones more quickly but I didn't see the point. 

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4 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

For much of the year it's been well under 1 in 100.  

For much of the year they were using the 124 in 100,000 people.(that was the figure that kept Leicester in lockdown in July) .

Why keep changing the stats and measuring sticks unless you re just trying to confuse the proles.

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Just now, matty40s said:

For much of the year they were using the 124 in 100,000 people.(that was the figure that kept Leicester in lockdown in July) .

Why keep changing the stats and measuring sticks unless you re just trying to confuse the proles.

Do you know of anywhere which gives the presumed national average rate of infection from last year?

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2 hours ago, doratheexplorer said:

Do you know of anywhere which gives the presumed national average rate of infection from last year?

 

An estimate (for England only) is available from the MRC Biostatistics Unit Nowcast and Forecast models. Caveat is that it is based on modelling rather than measurement, but in the absence of measurement...

 

image.png.363b9e97078076db96135189b78be0fd.png

 

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-12th-february-2021/

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13 minutes ago, alias said:

 

An estimate (for England only) is available from the MRC Biostatistics Unit Nowcast and Forecast models. Caveat is that it is based on modelling rather than measurement, but in the absence of measurement...

 

image.png.363b9e97078076db96135189b78be0fd.png

 

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-12th-february-2021/

This isn't quite what I was asking, but it's interesting anyway.  Thanks.

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