Lockdown ? What Lockdown?

[GUMPY]

 

1 hour ago, Mike Todd said:

Question to ask yourself: if you knew with some reliability that you had, in an unconstrained world, a 1% chance of catching COVID within any one year period, and if you caught it you had a 5% chance of dying from or with it, would you self isolate and for how long?

Answer to that is easy.

My behaviour would hardly change from now and would stay like it for ever.

Except I would go to the boat, distancing is now second nature as is wearing a mask/gloves when out of the house.

It does help that I am a misanthrope so do not miss contact at all.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Loddon

[frangar]

25 minutes ago, Loddon said:

In an old Landrover ? Surprised it could go fast enough to overtake

 

Ha! We were in the car....if it had been the Landy I wouldn’t have bothered driving round them! 

[Momac]

1 hour ago, Mike Todd said:

....... none of us would ever venture out of doors and drone deliveries would be the new normal.

I had to look up what stochastic means as have not heard that   = random / unpredictable ?

 

The virus may exist on surfaces so not sure why a drone should be any different to  a man in a van.

[Sir Nibble]

2 hours ago, Mike Todd said:

But herd immunity (for COVID19) seems to require that around 80% of us have to have had the disease, recover and also retain some degree of personal immunity. None of these are great factors:

 

 

It may seem that way to someone who doesn't understand what herd immunity means. Herd immunity is the only good outcome, the only alternative to simply letting the infection run wild and the only way to minimise deaths. It's what you get with around 80% immunity in the population, like for instance by means of an effective vaccination programme. Herd immunity emphatically does not require widespread infection to be achieved and continued ignorant conflation of the term with an imaginary policy of mass infection and death is quite simply wrong. 

[Mike Todd]

1 hour ago, MartynG said:

I had to look up what stochastic means as have not heard that   = random / unpredictable ?

 

The virus may exist on surfaces so not sure why a drone should be any different to  a man in a van.

Because the man (person actually) in a van has to go out of the house to work and thus be at greater risk.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Mike Todd

[The Welsh Cruiser]

9 minutes ago, Mike Todd said:

Because the man (person actually) in a van has to go out of the house to work and thus be at greater risk.

No more or no less at risk than the man (person) who goes out in their car to the local apparently essential MacDonalds drive thru (through).

[frahkn]

59 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

It may seem that way to someone who doesn't understand what herd immunity means. Herd immunity is the only good outcome, the only alternative to simply letting the infection run wild and the only way to minimise deaths. It's what you get with around 80% immunity in the population, like for instance by means of an effective vaccination programme. Herd immunity emphatically does not require widespread infection to be achieved and continued ignorant conflation of the term with an imaginary policy of mass infection and death is quite simply wrong. 

Currently we have no vaccine and it is conceivable that we will never have one. 

 

In the absence of a vaccine, the only way to achieve 'herd immunity' is by widespread infection. That is how our current herd immunity to countless viruses arose, we developed these immunities during the thousands of years pre the discovery of vaccination.

 

So while there is not a policy of mass infection the concept is not is not in itself wrong - it's just second best to a vaccine if one can be developed.

[Machpoint005]

1 hour ago, Sir Nibble said:

continued ignorant conflation of the term with an imaginary policy of mass infection and death is quite simply wrong.

 

Well said, that man.

5 minutes ago, The Welsh Cruiser said:

MacDonalds drive thru (through).

 

McDonalds. The company is very insistent on that.

[Athy]

5 hours ago, nicknorman said:

 Yes the argument is about “when you crash you will cause emergency workers to get up close and personal with you” but in the great scheme of things the risk is surely very small.

This reminds me of the advice (allegedly) given by Mums to their children in days gone by, to change their underwear every day in case they got run over by a 'bus.

[Sir Nibble]

11 minutes ago, frahkn said:

Currently we have no vaccine and it is conceivable that we will never have one. 

 

In the absence of a vaccine, the only way to achieve 'herd immunity' is by widespread infection. That is how our current herd immunity to countless viruses arose, we developed these immunities during the thousands of years pre the discovery of vaccination.

 

So while there is not a policy of mass infection the concept is not is not in itself wrong - it's just second best to a vaccine if one can be developed.

True. But it remains emphatically untrue and misleading to suggest that herd immunity=mass infection. Herd immunity has been achieved with respect to many diseases to the benefit of all without mass deaths. It is a good thing and not to be bandied about as a euphemism for abandoning the vulnerable to their fate.

[Machpoint005]

An immune person can transmit the virus by touch (eg hand contact) but not by aerosol (eg sneezing).

 

 

[Sir Nibble]

1 hour ago, Machpoint005 said:

An immune person can transmit the virus by touch (eg hand contact) but not by aerosol (eg sneezing).

 

 

Quite, but whilst they can pass on a quantity of live virus it's to be hoped that the person to whom they pass it is also immune and the virus is thereby disarmed. And that biological mechanism, not a government policy is the definition of herd immunity.

I know you know that but I've quoted your post as another opportunity to ram the point home.

[The Welsh Cruiser]

3 hours ago, Machpoint005 said:

McDonalds. The company is very insistent on that.

OK I stand corrected. McDonalds restaurants is the full title I believe. I also believe that McDonalds 'restaurants' is more concise.

[Athy]

33 minutes ago, The Welsh Cruiser said:

OK I stand corrected. 

No need to. Neither of you is entirely correct. The company is equally insistent on their apostrophe.

[Richard10002]

8 hours ago, Sir Nibble said:

True. But it remains emphatically untrue and misleading to suggest that herd immunity=mass infection. Herd immunity has been achieved with respect to many diseases to the benefit of all without mass deaths. It is a good thing and not to be bandied about as a euphemism for abandoning the vulnerable to their fate.

Without a vaccine, if 75% of the population needs to be infected to reach herd immunity, that sounds like mass infection, whether over a short period, or a longer period. If 0.1% of those infected die, 50,000 die in the UK - whether that is mass death is a matter of opinion. It's not a small number.

 

This all assumes that infection + recovery = immunity

[Sir Nibble]

8 hours ago, Richard10002 said:

Without a vaccine, if 75% of the population needs to be infected to reach herd immunity, that sounds like mass infection, whether over a short period, or a longer period. If 0.1% of those infected die, 50,000 die in the UK - whether that is mass death is a matter of opinion. It's not a small number.

 

This all assumes that infection + recovery = immunity

Your point being?

[Murflynn]

4 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

Your point being?

because you said that "But it remains emphatically untrue and misleading to suggest that herd immunity=mass infection".

 

you cannot have herd immunity without mass infection.

[Parahandy]

10 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

Your point being?

A larger number Dead or Infected with no guarantee of Immunity at the end of it

[Parahandy]

19 hours ago, Loddon said:

 

Answer to that is easy.

My behaviour would hardly change from now and would stay like it for ever.

Except I would go to the boat, distancing is now second nature as is wearing a mask/gloves when out of the house.

It does help that I am a misanthrope so do not miss contact at all.

If you are a misanthrope why are you on a Forum like this not to mention ( correct me if I am wrong ) engaged in some Electrical Services endeavour ?

[Parahandy]

Recently I have become aware of a new addition to Milton Keynes Boating Fraternity a Boat called Yns Glasgow . Owned by a Family , they have spent the whole of the Lockdown going from Giffard Park to Campbell Park then back again every couple of days . The first time I noticed this I asked why they were moving , its ok shouted the wife we are liveaboards ??????

[Sir Nibble]

20 minutes ago, Murflynn said:

because you said that "But it remains emphatically untrue and misleading to suggest that herd immunity=mass infection".

 

you cannot have herd immunity without mass infection.

Yes you can. That's how come you no longer see people crippled by polio all over the place.

17 minutes ago, Parahandy said:

A larger number Dead or Infected with no guarantee of Immunity at the end of it

A possible outcome which is the opposite of herd immunity.

 

Look. People sneeze on their boat, that doesn't mean that anyone sneezing must be on a boat. IF infection gives immunity and enough people are infected (with proportional deaths) would bring about herd immunity that doesn't mean that the herd immunity can only be achieved that way. It doesn't make mass deaths and herd immunity synonymous.

[Momac]

 

8 hours ago, Richard10002 said:

Without a vaccine, if 75% of the population needs to be infected to reach herd immunity, that sounds like mass infection, whether over a short period, or a longer period. If 0.1% of those infected die, 50,000 die in the UK - whether that is mass death is a matter of opinion. It's not a small number.

According to the internet - In the 1918 pandemic 1/3 of the worlds population were infected. That was 500Million infected and there were 50Million deaths .  

This virus is different . I don't believe anyone yet knows what the percentage of deaths will be .

 

 

 

 

[Mike Todd]

2 hours ago, Sir Nibble said:

Yes you can. That's how come you no longer see people crippled by polio all over the place.

A possible outcome which is the opposite of herd immunity.

 

Look. People sneeze on their boat, that doesn't mean that anyone sneezing must be on a boat. IF infection gives immunity and enough people are infected (with proportional deaths) would bring about herd immunity that doesn't mean that the herd immunity can only be achieved that way. It doesn't make mass deaths and herd immunity synonymous.

That's because of a vaccine.

[Sir Nibble]

39 minutes ago, Mike Todd said:

That's because of a vaccine.

Yes! The penny drops! Vaccines work by achieving herd immunity.

I fervently hope we achieve herd immunity, because without it covid 19 will be a permanent feature of life just like TB and smallpox used to be. That is NOT the same as hoping for a high rate of infection and death.

[Mike Todd]

1 minute ago, Sir Nibble said:

Yes! The penny drops! Vaccines work by achieving herd immunity.

I fervently hope we achieve herd immunity, because without it covid 19 will be a permanent feature of life just like TB and smallpox used to be. That is NOT the same as hoping for a high rate of infection and death.

But we don't have a COVID19 vaccine.