Lockdown ? What Lockdown?

[haggis]

I suppose the difference is that a horses hoof is unlikely to have been sneezed on and thus unlikely to be carrying the virus where as a dog coat is a likely host. Also the dog groomer has to handle the coat at close quarters to their face.  The Kennel Club issued guidance for dog groomers but all the ones I know are taking their own and the dog owners safety seriously and are not working.

 

haggis

[Momac]

1 minute ago, haggis said:

I suppose the difference is that a horses hoof is unlikely to have been sneezed on and thus unlikely to be carrying the virus where as a dog coat is a likely host. Also the dog groomer has to handle the coat at close quarters to their face.  The Kennel Club issued guidance for dog groomers but all the ones I know are taking their own and the dog owners safety seriously and are not working.

 

 

If dogs can transmit the virus why are they allowed to be let off a lead when people  out walking and other dogs may be nearby?

[Sir Nibble]

6 minutes ago, haggis said:

I suppose the difference is that a horses hoof is unlikely to have been sneezed on and thus unlikely to be carrying the virus where as a dog coat is a likely host. Also the dog groomer has to handle the coat at close quarters to their face.  The Kennel Club issued guidance for dog groomers but all the ones I know are taking their own and the dog owners safety seriously and are not working.

 

haggis

Another factor is that shoeing a horse is an animal welfare matter whereas dog grooming is mere aesthetics. If a dog has become so shaggy that it causes suffering then that suffering can be relieved by an unskilled owner. 

[The Welsh Cruiser]

7 minutes ago, MartynG said:

 

 

If dogs can transmit the virus why are they allowed to be let off a lead when people  out walking and other dogs may be nearby?

Technically they can't, the dog owner is responsible for their dog, and no dog is beyond being distracted from its owner's control by things going on around it. In the real world though, there's only so many rules that can be applied.

[Jennifer McM]

14 minutes ago, MartynG said:

 

 

If dogs can transmit the virus why are they allowed to be let off a lead when people  out walking and other dogs may be nearby?

As far as I know a dog in Hong Kong was said to have caught the virus, think that makes the chances of catching the virus off a dog is pretty scarce.

 

Two big cats in a zoo in New York has caught a mild case of the virus off their keeper, and I think two other domestic cats have caught it.

 

I stand to be corrected ?

[nicknorman]

One could follow Trump’s advice and dip the dog in bleach before taking it to the groomers. What could possibly go wrong?

[peterboat]

3 hours ago, LadyG said:

Please explain to me the difference between  "herd immunity" and "survival of the fittest"?

What Sir Nibble said

[Sir Nibble]

9 minutes ago, The Welsh Cruiser said:

Technically they can't, the dog owner is responsible for their dog, and no dog is beyond being distracted from its owner's control by things going on around it. In the real world though, there's only so many rules that can be applied.

A tennis ball can't catch the virus but if an infected person throws it and someone else catches it then the infection is transmitted. Surely when actual humans are isolating it's not too much to expect dogs to be kept on a lead.

[haggis]

19 minutes ago, MartynG said:

 

 

If dogs can transmit the virus why are they allowed to be let off a lead when people  out walking and other dogs may be nearby?

A very good point and why my dogs are not allowed to speak to people or other dogs and why I never "pet" anyone elses dogs. I don't think dogs can actually catch the virus but if an infected owner sneezes or coughs the droplets can land on the dogs coat and can be transferred to another person if they touch the dog.  Sorry , Jennifer, if I gave the impression that dogs can actually catch the virus. I don't think they can. 

 

haggis

[The Welsh Cruiser]

1 minute ago, Sir Nibble said:

A tennis ball can't catch the virus but if an infected person throws it and someone else catches it then the infection is transmitted. Surely when actual humans are isolating it's not too much to expect dogs to be kept on a lead.

You might hope that, but dogs have special privileges in this great country of ours. Or is it the dog 'owners'? 

[WotEver]

3 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

One could follow Trump’s advice and dip the dog in bleach before taking it to the groomers. What could possibly go wrong?

Did you hear about the vicar in Utah who, following Trumps' advice, died after swallowing a bottle of Domestos?  Trump's going to be charged with a bleach of the priest.

[Sir Nibble]

Just now, The Welsh Cruiser said:

You might hope that, but dogs have special privileges in this great country of ours. Or is it the dog 'owners'? 

I know what you mean. To many people their dog has rights beyond those enjoyed by a mere citizen.

[nicknorman]

1 minute ago, WotEver said:

Did you hear about the vicar in Utah who, following Trumps' advice, died after swallowing a bottle of Domestos?  Trump's going to be charged with a bleach of the priest.

Gerrroan!

[The Welsh Cruiser]

4 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

I know what you mean. To many people their dog has rights beyond those enjoyed by a mere citizen.

Don't get me wrong I love dogs, I'd have one myself if it wasn't such a responsibility. I do think they should be on leads more though. They regularly piss on the wheels of my motor bike, marking their territory I suppose. Also on my mooring ropes. I doesn't bother me unduly but it's amusing when the 'owner' makes profuse apologies. Empty apologies of course, because the dog is still free to piss on the ropes of the boat next to me. If the apology was genuine, the dog would be put on a lead. 

[ditchcrawler]

1 hour ago, Alan de Enfield said:

The farrier phones when he is 10 minutes away.

I take 'Hippo' and tie him up outside his stable, and put money in an envelope and place it in the tack-bag.

Farrier arrives.

Farrier does his 'farriering' and collects the envelope.

Farrier leaves.

When I see his truck leaving, I go out and put 'Hippo' in his paddock.

 

Never see the farrier, let alone go anywhere near him.

 

 

I don't see why that could not work with dog groomers.

 

Gardeners are still 'allowed' to operate so why shouldn't other 'trades' that are also solo-workers ?

Lots are, lots have chosen not to. Now there is a stink about B&Q opening, they never needed to close, just like Mc.D tack a way. But some people still don't quite understand as on the Bridgewater https://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/18404257.coronavirus-lockdown-fines-drunken-canal-boat-party/?ref=fbshr

[ditchcrawler]

3 hours ago, LadyG said:

Please explain to me the difference between  "herd immunity" and "survival of the fittest"?

The weakest members of the herd stay isolated until the herd immunity has built up, that is why the Government told over 70s and the vulnerable to self isolate for 12 weeks even before the lockdown, you keep them out of the way, 

[Momac]

17 minutes ago, haggis said:

A very good point and why my dogs are not allowed to speak to people or other dogs and why I never "pet" anyone elses dogs. I don't think dogs can actually catch the virus but if an infected owner sneezes or coughs the droplets can land on the dogs coat and can be transferred to another person if they touch the dog.  Sorry , Jennifer, if I gave the impression that dogs can actually catch the virus. I don't think they can. 

 

haggis

When we go for our walk there are always dog walkers and the dogs are rarely on leads as our walk is mostly on off road footpaths .

Apart from a few incredibly well trained dogs there is a tendency for the dogs to approach us , which I quite understand. We quite like most dogs but have never owned one.

I do think at this time dogs should be on a lead .

 

Worse than dogs is runners who don't stop  on a path of limited width . I feel this is very unhealthy in terms of risking transmission of the virus.

[Jennifer McM]

36 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

One could follow Trump’s advice and dip the dog in bleach before taking it to the groomers. What could possibly go wrong?

Or sheep dip? 

 

[Momac]

10 minutes ago, ditchcrawler said:

 Now there is a stink about B&Q opening, they never needed to close

I read on another forum of a boat owner who owns a hardware / garden  shop and he furloughed everyone and shut the shop on 24th March.

There has been great demand for DIY  and gardening products during the lockdown . What a missed  business opportunity.

 

 

 

[Jennifer McM]

26 minutes ago, The Welsh Cruiser said:

Don't get me wrong I love dogs, I'd have one myself if it wasn't such a responsibility. I do think they should be on leads more though. They regularly piss on the wheels of my motor bike, marking their territory I suppose. Also on my mooring ropes. I doesn't bother me unduly but it's amusing when the 'owner' makes profuse apologies. Empty apologies of course, because the dog is still free to piss on the ropes of the boat next to me. If the apology was genuine, the dog would be put on a lead. 

Got to say there's something 'attractive' to dogs about mooring ropes. I'm forever pulling our dog away from other boat's ropes - hate other dogs piddling up ours. Our dog's also got a yearning to leave his mark on ash buckets left outside boats ?

[roland elsdon]

39 minutes ago, WotEver said:

Did you hear about the vicar in Utah who, following Trumps' advice, died after swallowing a bottle of Domestos?  Trump's going to be charged with a bleach of the priest.

Or the man in Dumbarton, arrested for trying to assist emergency workers sanitise their uniforms.

He got arrested for ‘bleach of the police’

 

Another trumped up reason for arrest

[Jennifer McM]

33 minutes ago, ditchcrawler said:

Lots are, lots have chosen not to. Now there is a stink about B&Q opening, they never needed to close

They'll be a lot of this.... 

 

I'm certain there's a 'balancing act' going on, and it's all about how many new cases are happening every day.  The Gov has repeated said for us to stay at home, while seemingly turning a blind eye at growing quantity of shops opening. Gov will come down heavily again if new cases threaten NHS's ability to cope. The 'balls' in our court, it's called self responsibility. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Jennifer McM

[Sir Nibble]

1 minute ago, Jennifer McM said:

They'll be a lot of this.... 

 

I'm certain there's a 'balancing act' going on, and it's all about how many new cases are happening every day.  The Gov has repeated said for us to stay at home, while seemingly turning a blind eye at growing quantity of shops opening. Gov will come down heavily again if new cases threaten NHS amount. The 'balls' in our court, it's called self responsibility. 

I think the next weapon in the armoury as the lockdown begins to wither will be the announcement that no one is now in ignorance of the situation and engage, encourage, explain will go out the window and it will be fines first and every time.

14 minutes ago, MartynG said:

I read on another forum of a boat owner who owns a hardware / garden  shop and he furloughed everyone and shut the shop on 24th March.

There has been great demand for DIY  and gardening products during the lockdown . What a missed  business opportunity.

 

 

 

Off licences were considered "essential" from day one. I can't help thinking that hobby shops should have been included. 

[MoominPapa]

6 hours ago, LadyG said:

Please explain to me the difference between  "herd immunity" and "survival of the fittest"?

The maths of infectious diseases and the maths of nuclear fission chain reactions are pretty much the same. In a chain reaction, each atom of uranium the splits creates 2 point something neutrons which can either be lost from the reaction by absorbtion, or flying out of the lump of uranium, or they can precipitate a new fission. If the number of neutrons which generate a new fission is greater than one, the number of neutrons and the rate of fissioning increases exponentially: in each generation the rate is the previous rate multiplied by a factor greater than one. As the generation time is short, and the increase is exponential, the fission rate goes up fast. If the number of neutrons from each fission is lower than one, the same exponential formula applies, and the rate of neutron production goes down very fast. This is massively dependent on the magic number. Just greater then one - fast increase and boom. just less than one, fast decrease to almost nothing.

 

Infectious diseases are the same - exponential rise and fall, massively dependent on the number of new infections each infection creates. Just more than one and the rate of infection keeps going up to huge levels, just less than one and it keeps going down to low levels. The reproduction, factor depends on how many people capable of being infected each infected person contacts. At the start of a pandemic, nobody is immune, so that's the same as the number of people contacted. Hence lockdown to reduce that number below one. But as the pandemic continues, more and more people have had the disease and are immune, If nobody is immune and each case contacts two people, the infection rate doubles every two weeks or so. If each new case contacts two people and half the population is immune, each new case infects one person. and we are at the tipping point below which the infection rate falls as fast as it rises when it's above that. 

 

Note that the number of people who have to be immune is NOT "all of them". When enough people are immune to reduce the reproduction rate below one, the epidemic ceases and the disease drops to a low level: it becomes endemic. The actual proportion  depends on the contact rate: if each case contacts three people, then  having half the population immune isn't enough, you need to have two-thirds immune. 

 

At  the moment, lockdown means that the reproduction number is less than one without immunity, as more people get immunity, more contact can be allowed without tipping over one, but the amount of extra contact depends on the number who've had it, and half a percent of all who've had it will die, so that's the difficult trade-off.

 

Pay attention in maths lessons, folks!

 

MP.

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by MoominPapa

[peterboat]

14 minutes ago, MoominPapa said:

The maths of infectious diseases and the maths of nuclear fission chain reactions are pretty much the same. In a chain reaction, each atom of uranium the splits creates 2 point something neutrons which can either be lost from the reaction by absorbtion, or flying out of the lump of uranium, or they can precipitate a new fission. If the number of neutrons which generate a new fission is greater than one, the number of neutrons and the rate of fissioning increases exponentially: in each generation the rate is the previous rate multiplied by a factor greater than one. As the generation time is short, and the increase is exponential, the fission rate goes up fast. If the number of neutrons from each fission is lower than one, the same exponential formula applies, and the rate of neutron production goes down very fast. This is massively dependent on the magic number. Just greater then one - fast increase and boom. just less than one, fast decrease to almost nothing.

 

Infectious diseases are the same - exponential rise and fall, massively dependent on the number of new infections each infection creates. Just more than one and the rate of infection keeps going up to huge levels, just less than one and it keeps going down to low levels. The reproduction, factor depends on how many people capable of being infected each infected person contacts. At the start of a pandemic, nobody is immune, so that's the same as the number of people contacted. Hence lockdown to reduce that number below one. But as the pandemic continues, more and more people have had the disease and are immune, If nobody is immune and each case contacts two people, the infection rate doubles every two weeks or so. If each new case contacts two people and half the population is immune, each new case infects one person. and we are at the tipping point below which the infection rate falls as fast as it rises when it's above that. 

 

Note that the number of people who have to be immune is NOT "all of them". When enough people are immune to reduce the reproduction rate below one, the epidemic ceases and the disease drops to a low level: it becomes endemic. The actual proportion  depends on the contact rate: if each case contacts three people, then  having half the population immune isn't enough, you need to have two-thirds immune. 

 

At  the moment, lockdown means that the reproduction number is less than one without immunity, as more people get immunity, more contact can be allowed without tipping over one, but the amount of extra contact depends on the number who've had it, and half a percent of all who've had it will die, so that's the difficult trade-off.

 

Pay attention in maths lessons, folks!

 

MP.

 

Great lesson MP so is what the government doing correct? for me yes it is the NHS has not been swamped yet, Yes people are dying but that will always happen even if we had a full lockdown, when lockdown stopped all it would take is one person to spread the virus again, we [the world] are in a no win situation until a vaccine is created.