MtB Challenge [game theory]

[LadyG]

OK, 

So I want to sell up flat, buy a boat  to live on cc.

Govt pension is £150pw. [I have additional income, which is for "R&R"]

I reckon to put £800pa in to contingency fund for boat maintenance including blacking at £300pa.

 

2016 good flats were selling for £70K, and good boats were £40K, so a nice round £30K in bank

2018   flats are £55-62K [maybe] and good boats are are £45K.

Is there some sort of game theory that can tell me just how little to sell my flat  for and how little to buy a boat for?

Yes, I know I can buy a cheapo boat, but then the risk of hitting the contingency fund is much greater, and tbh, I don't want a project.

A flat costs £1K to sell

A boat costs £1K to buy.

There has been no genuine interest in the flat over 15 months. Its not a big deal. The market is bad, so what others are doing is to rent these flats. Too many rental flats = low rentals.

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG
cut price narrowboats

[MtB]

My advice is sell your flat in 2016 then, and buy a boat for £40k. ?

 

But honestly, are you really telling us there are too many flats where you are for the population? And so prices are sale prices are tumbling from over-supply and lack of demand, and similarly rents? This sounds highly unlikely. Whatever happened to the housing crisis? Which bit of Scotland is this then?

 

I'm actually quite shocked a flat can be bought anywhere in the UK for £55k. 

Edited September 2, 2018 by Mike the Boilerman

[LadyG]

21 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

My advice is sell your flat in 2016 then, and buy a boat for £40k. ?

 

But honestly, are you really telling us there are too many flats where you are for the population? And so prices are sale prices are tumbling from over-supply and lack of demand, and similarly rents? This sounds highly unlikely. Whatever happened to the housing crisis? Which bit of Scotland is this then?

 

I'm actually quite shocked a flat can be bought anywhere in the UK for £55k. 

 

That is what I am telling you. 

Housing Associations , hand in glove with Local Authority are building flats right left and centre.  

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/north-ayrshire-council-plan-build-11291218

I am am shocked, its a scandal. Its social engineering, very little to do with "free market economy"

PS The housing crisis is in England, particularly London.

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG

[blackrose]

It's not "social engineering" it's following the basic economic laws of supply & demand. People need places to live so there's a house building programme. The cost of property went up and up for a couple of decades until the younger generation were either having to rent into middle age or pay exorbitant prices to buy. Either way the young are paying the profits of the older property owning class. I understand that's not necessarily been the case in your location, but I'm afraid if housing is treated as an equity than that's exactly how it will behave. For a significant proportion of the population if the cost of housing falls it is to be welcomed. Although the housing market tends to rise over the long-term, contrary to popular belief the cost of property doesn't always go up. 

[Jennifer McM]

1 hour ago, LadyG said:

OK, 

So I want to sell up flat, buy a boat  to live on cc.

 

Having 'enough' money is important, but life's not always about materialism. If you think you can make your wish come true, and be happy, then go for it, and good luck to you ?

 

I've recently discovered an 'Open Source' software program 'GnuCash' which is brilliant for creating different financial/budgeting scenarios - perhaps you are already aware of it or something similar.

[LadyG]

39 minutes ago, Jennifer McM said:

Having 'enough' money is important, but life's not always about materialism. If you think you can make your wish come true, and be happy, then go for it, and good luck to you ?

 

I've recently discovered an 'Open Source' software program 'GnuCash' which is brilliant for creating different financial/budgeting scenarios - perhaps you are already aware of it or something similar.

Yes, of course, but I would not want to live hand to mouth, the whole point is to have freedom to live reasonably comfortably and travel to interesting places. I don't want to be miserable because  I have to live in poverty.

"Relative poverty generally means that a person can't afford an "ordinary living pattern"—they're excluded from the activities and opportunities that the average person enjoys. A household is in relative poverty (also called relative low income) if its income is below 60% of the median household income.22 Mar 2018"

Re housing:

Thing  is, no single person on an average wage can actually save up for a deposit, unless  mum and dad help out , if anyone rents a flat, they are paying £400 pcm or a lot more,. A young,  well 30'ish friend here, is an example. She leaves home at 7.00 am returns 7.pm, Rent is £350, train is £200 pcm, so she has no chance of saving.

To get back to social housing here abouts. There is no shortage of applicants, who are pretty sophisticated.  Claiming benefits is a career aspiration for many. 

In my block of 6 flats four are rented, two rented to contract workers,  no else one works though ages are from 35 to 55. I retired last week. I don't claim benefits and never have, but I think the other residents do, obviously those who don't own their flats.

Next block of  six flats, I think two guys work, rest are retired.

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG

[LadyG]

1 hour ago, blackrose said:

It's not "social engineering" it's following the basic economic laws of supply & demand. People need places to live so there's a house building programme. The cost of property went up and up for a couple of decades until the younger generation were either having to rent into middle age or pay exorbitant prices to buy. Either way the young are paying the profits of the older property owning class. I understand that's not necessarily been the case in your location, but I'm afraid if housing is treated as an equity than that's exactly how it will behave. For a significant proportion of the population if the cost of housing falls it is to be welcomed. Although the housing market

tends to rise over the long-term, contrary to popular belief the cost of property doesn't always go up. 

The people are not homeless, they are already housed, just not in good housing.

The poor housing is then rented out to folks lower down the social stratum,

They build these flats for social housing in the knowledge that the UK government will pay the rates and the rents, so the LA provide the plots,  and "planning permission", the property developer buys the land at rock bottom price, builds the flats, the Housing Association takes the property over.

Last year they built 24 flats, this year they are building 120., and its happening in other towns, Its not a co-incidence, its the same property developer, the same Housing Association, the same Local Authority each time.

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG

[MtB]

11 minutes ago, LadyG said:

The people are not homeless, they are already housed, just not in good housing.

They build these flats for social housing in the knowledge that the UK government will pay the rates and the rents, so the LA provide the plots,  and "planning permission", the property developer buys the land at rock bottom price, builds the flats, the Housing Association takes the property over.

Last year they built 24 flats, this year they are building 120., and its happening in other towns, Its not a co-incidence, its the same property developer, the same Housing Association, the same Local Authority each time.

 

I'd sell up and leave if I were you then... 

[Graham Davis]

Sounds like someone has a chip on their shoulder

[LadyG]

28 minutes ago, Graham Davis said:

Sounds like someone has a chip on their shoulder

Well, maybe that is true, I just object to the benefit society structure. Not that some folks don't need assistance, I do not have a problem with people who are unable to work, its the one;s who elect to go on benefit as an alternative lifestyle.

There is something wrong when politicians talk about affordable housing when it is not affordable to the average person in work, this has always been the case of course.  Its a view shared by many [as per the script of The Archers].

 

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG

[Naughty Cal]

There is no magic formula. 

 

If the flat won't sell it is over priced. If you really want to sell it drop the price and perhaps try a different estate agent who will market it more strongly. 

 

I must admit to finding it hard to believe that  a flat so cheap is struggling to sell.

 

We don't live in the most affluent area of Sheffield but houses and flats sell very quickly. Usually within a few days of going on the market. 

[Machpoint005]

7 minutes ago, Naughty Cal said:

We don't live in the most affluent area of Sheffield but houses and flats sell very quickly. Usually within a few days of going on the market. 

Bear in mind that the system is different in Scotland: usually sealed bids as opposed to buyers breaking their word, and gazumping. Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages, though.

[MtB]

1 hour ago, LadyG said:

There is something wrong when politicians talk about affordable housing when it is not affordable to the average person in work, this has always been the case of course.

 

I'm still puzzled. £50k for a flat in your area sounds highly affordable. And even if it isn't, you tell us house prices are falling in your area so they soon will be 'affordable'. 

 

What exactly is the problem again?

 

 

[LadyG]

Flats are selling in Glasgow like hot cakes, in Leeds and in  London, but not here.

The much touted Scottish system is a pain, I have to pay for a survey, and perhaps another one if the buyer wants a mortgage!

No bids, no legal interest.  No buyers.

Only four viewers in twelve months and its been marketed by two agents, Its exhausting. It was all tarted up to sell, seems like a waste of money, but once its spent its gone.

 

[Murflynn]

2 hours ago, LadyG said:

 

"Relative poverty generally means that a person can't afford an "ordinary living pattern"—they're excluded from the activities and opportunities that the average person enjoys. A household is in relative poverty (also called relative low income) if its income is below 60% of the median household income.22 Mar 2018"

 

such definitions are ridiculous.  of course 'relative poverty' exists, the definition ensures that is the case.

 

real poverty occurs when someone cannot provide housing, utilities, clothes and food for the family, not when they can't afford to buy a new car on h.p. (sorry, 'financing plan'), 2 foreign holidays a year, or a new tablet for the kids, which the 'average' household apparently can. 

 

just across from where I live there is a council sink estate with roads full of parked cars, many of them are SUVs on a 67 or 18 plate.  

[LadyG]

27 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

I'm still puzzled. £50k for a flat in your area sounds highly affordable. And even if it isn't, you tell us house prices are falling in your area so they soon will be 'affordable'. 

 

What exactly is the problem again?

 

 

There are no buyers. 

 

Someone on the average wage, say £18K is not able to save for a deposit on a £50K house, otherwise they would not be renting [£4500pa], they would be buying.

 

First time buyers tend to fuel the lower levels of the housing market, if they don't buy, then the market stagnates, which must be what is happening.

 

I know if I had a decent job with ambitions, [yes, I was once 25], I'd not buy a flat in Toytown, there are no industries and only a few supermarkets, no LiddleDiddle.

 

Affordable housing is the buzzword/phrase to get planning through on greenfield sites.

In North Ayrshire no one objects to housing as long as they meet Building Regs., well people object but they are over- ruled, that is "democracy in action" 

 

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG

[Machpoint005]

"Affordable housing" has long been another way of saying "cheaper but still unaffordable". Instead of first-time buyers, it attracts buy-to-let investors, thus keeping house prices and rents inflated.

[Richard10002]

4 minutes ago, LadyG said:

There are no buyers, there is no industry there are no decent well paid jobs. 

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £1 ?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £100 ?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £1000?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £10,000 ?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £20,000 ?

 

id guess the answer to all of the above is yes.... in fact, I’d guess you would probably have several people offering you the higher of the figures. Even if it isn’t yes to all of them, it will be yes to some of them..... So.... THERE ARE BUYERS FOR YOUR FLAT.... PROBABLY LOTS OF BUYERS,!! but, perhaps, not at a price at which you are prepared to sell.... although you actually have no idea what price someone might be prepared to pay.

 

I thought property in Scotland was marketed at a guide price, with the expectation being that people would bid over and above the guide. I also believe you are not committed to a sale until you accept an offer.

 

You could ask yourself “at what level would somebody definitely buy my flat?”

 

Why not set that as the guide, and see what happens? You will get some bids.... you might be pleasantly surprised..... and you might sell your flat! but you don’t have to!

 

I would also guess that you could buy a “good enough” boat for £25,000 or so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LadyG]

15 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

Would somebody buy your flat for £1 ?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £100 ?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £1000?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £10,000 ?

 

Would somebody buy your flat for £20,000 ?

 

id guess the answer to all of the above is yes.... in fact, I’d guess you would probably have several people offering you the higher of the figures. Even if it isn’t yes to all of them, it will be yes to some of them..... So.... THERE ARE BUYERS FOR YOUR FLAT.... PROBABLY LOTS OF BUYERS,!! but, perhaps, not at a price at which you are prepared to sell.... although you actually have no idea what price someone might be prepared to pay.

 

I thought property in Scotland was marketed at a guide price, with the expectation being that people would bid over and above the guide. I also believe you are not committed to a sale until you accept an offer.

 

You could ask yourself “at what level would somebody definitely buy my flat?”

 

Why not set that as the guide, and see what happens? You will get some bids.... you might be pleasantly surprised..... and you might sell your flat! but you don’t have to!

 

I would also guess that you could buy a “good enough” boat for £25,000 or so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, I have trickled the price  downwards and adjusted the wording, but essentially no one is buying.

The whole idea is to get my capital out of my property so I can spend it the way I want, so its no use selling it for £25K, as I then have no contingency.

Also, I'm not being a refusenik, but I don't want to live in a scruffy boat with unreliable engine and rust at every orifice.

Its perfectly possible to sell my flat for a £10,000, buy a tent and live in that, but really, its not something I am ever going to do, it does not make sense.

I know the base price, the bottom of the market price, but even landlords [they call themselves property investors], are not selling at the moment, they are renting, and that is no use to me, I don't want to rent, I want to sell. Anyone can make an offer, but obviously they would  have a look round first, and they are not looking.

Marketing is about getting a decent price, I mean if I want to get cash tomorrow it could go to auction, but that would be horrendous. 

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG

[Naughty Cal]

40 minutes ago, LadyG said:

There are no buyers. 

 

Someone on the average wage, say £18K is not able to save for a deposit on a £50K house, otherwise they would not be renting [£4500pa], they would be buying.

 

First time buyers tend to fuel the lower levels of the housing market, if they don't buy, then the market stagnates, which must be what is happening.

 

I know if I had a decent job with ambitions, [yes, I was once 25], I'd not buy a flat in Toytown, there are no industries and only a few supermarkets, no LiddleDiddle.

 

Affordable housing is the buzzword/phrase to get planning through on greenfield sites.

In North Ayrshire no one objects to housing as long as they meet Building Regs., well people object but they are over- ruled, that is "democracy in action" 

 

I would say that someone on the average wage can save for a deposit otherwise there would be no first time buyers.

 

The deposit required to buy your 50k flat is not beyond reach. There are low deposit mortgages returning to the market.

[Richard10002]

2 minutes ago, LadyG said:

Yes, I have trickled the price  downwards and adjusted the wording, but essentially no one is buying.

The whole idea is to get my capital out of my property so I can spend it the way I want, so its no use selling it for £25K, as I then have no contingency.

Also, I'm not being a refusenik, but I don't want to live in a scruffy boat with unreliable engine and rust at every orifice.

Its perfectly possible to sell my flat for a £10,000, buy a tent and live in that, but really, its not something I am ever going to do, it does not make sense.

I know the base price, the bottom of the market price, but even landlords [they call themselves property investors], are not selling at the moment, they are renting, and that is no use to me, I don't want to rent, I want to sell. Anyone can make an offer, but obviously they would  have a look round first, and they are not looking.

What are you guessing the base price to be?

 

What rent do similar flats achieve?

 

I have a 45ft boat with a reliable engine, all mod cons, and fine for living on, (although I don’t). My guess is that it’s worth about £25,000 to £30,000, and I would have to be very lucky to get the higher figure.

 

I don’t know what you mean by refusenik, but life is very short and, if you truly want to live on a narrowboat, and truly don’t want to live in your flat, it’s my guess you could do it.

[MtB]

1 minute ago, Richard10002 said:

 

I don’t know what you mean by refusenik, but life is very short and, if you truly want to live on a narrowboat, and truly don’t want to live in your flat, it’s my guess you could do it.

 

Good advice from Richard, and my guess too. But LadyG wants to do it on her terms, not the market's. And ditching dry land and committing to living on a boat is SCARY, and demanding a higher price than the market will bear is a great excuse to kid yourself why you can't do it. 

 

Chasing a falling property market down as a seller is an idiot's game. Cut the price fiercely NOW and get in front of the curve. If the OP genuinely believes the market really IS saturated with stock and no buyers in today's bright and thriving economic climate, it aint never gonna get no better. Hack the price until is sells NOW, is my advice. Prices are only going to be lower this time next year. Same advice as I was suggesting when she first pitched up here moaning about no buyers for her flat and it was worth £10k more than today. The chance you still have now to live on a NB is slipping through your fingers if you are right about the vanishing buyers and over supply of new builds. Get out now for whatever you can get for it, I suggest, then get on with your dream. 

 

 

[nb Innisfree]

Bandwagon, when does it start rolling? When do you get on? When do you jump off? Is it coming to a stop or will it roll on, or speed up again? 

 

Like life it's all a gamble. 

[LadyG]

36 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

Good advice from Richard, and my guess too. But LadyG wants to do it on her terms, not the market's. And ditching dry land and committing to living on a boat is SCARY, and demanding a higher price than the market will bear is a great excuse to kid yourself why you can't do it. 

 

Chasing a falling property market down as a seller is an idiot's game. Cut the price fiercely NOW and get in front of the curve. If the OP genuinely believes the market really IS saturated with stock and no buyers in today's bright and thriving economic climate, it aint never gonna get no better. Hack the price until is sells NOW, is my advice. Prices are only going to be lower this time next year. Same advice as I was suggesting when she first pitched up here moaning about no buyers for her flat and it was worth £10k more than today. The chance you still have now to live on a NB is slipping through your fingers if you are right about the vanishing buyers and over supply of new builds. Get out now for whatever you can get for it, I suggest, then get on with your dream. 

 

 

I've already cut the price with the first agent, I think it was below £60K, but it evoked no interest, so I put it back up a little bit when I moved agents and it went to the top of the database, that  is when most interest is to be expected. There was no interest.

My optimistic expectations are down to maybe £60K,  so worse case scenario would be £58 to clear £57K cash, if the prices drop again, then that would be £55K, and I am getting into the realms of hi stress levels. But all this is pretty much fantasy, there is just little or no interest, and a year ago there were fewer flats on the market, someone who needs a flat needs to make their presence known! Anyway, we will see what the lady who viewed on Saturday says, [she was in the flat from 11.00 am to 11.03!]

The advert has been carefully worded, to encourage viewing, an experienced buyer would be aware that I was keen. My new estate agent is primarily a rental agent with selling as a sideline, they are pretty busy with rentals and will be aware of anyone wanting a buy to let property, and I even have a lady who might like to rent my flat [including my cat!].

 

PS Scotland is in recession, no way is the economic furnace burning up here.

 

Edited September 2, 2018 by LadyG

[roland elsdon]

Why do you want to live on a boat?

they are complete money pits that go down in value over time require vast amounts of maintainance and cost a fortune.

your maths are bad.

my last docking was for survey only no paint applied it was over  600 ... Mates rates.

my annual is over 3000  mooring licence and insurance. Then I pick up a paint brush or buy new battery or replace alternator or put diesel in. Note I do everything but welding/ fabrication.

 

one of my friends didn't buy a house in a village round here  because it wasn't worth £30000,  which he had available. The next time he  had an opportunity he didn't buy because they were £75000 but had been 30000 in his memory. They are now 250000 plus but he won't buy because they were 60000.. Now he realises age is happening he's " looking" hmm £250000 plus.

 

you have his problem in reverse. 

You are are following the market down in denial he was refusing to chase the market up' "75000 75000 I remember when they were 30000 , "

yep and you didn't buy..

 

may at I humbly suggest a timeshare in an old boat. 4 weeks for 1200 or so and you will keep your roof and have somewhere to go in January when it's minus 10,the cuts frozen ,the fires out,  the batteries flat , the bogs full and the tanks frozen. Because that will happen.