Who says there is a recession on?

[dor]

Whew what a day.

 

At Aqueduct Marina we've just taken deposits on three boats in one afternoon. Nearly £200,000 worth.

 

Is there really a shortage of buyers out there with money to spend?

I do wonder how much the so-called recession is driven by gloom & doom merchants. Is it all being driven by the government as an excuse to tax us more?

[nb Innisfree]

I'm sure they have taken the recession and ridden it for all their worth, painting a much gloomier picture so they can save for a rainy day, trouble is some of it will be spent on a few luxuries before that rainy day comes.

 

Or am I just being cynical?

[Morat]

Maybe people are blowing their house money on boats, knowing that house prices are in the doldrums and if you're borrowing to buy another one then you're losing a lot of money on the loan which wasn't the case before!

[Windfola]

It suits the present incumbents to let us think the recession is worse than it is, because that way they can dismantle services, pocket the difference and keep our attention away from what they are up to.

[OldGoldy]

I'm sure they have taken the recession and ridden it for all their worth, painting a much gloomier picture so they can save for a rainy day, trouble is some of it will be spent on a few luxuries before that rainy day comes.

 

Or am I just being cynical?

 

...like a new kitchen at no. 10

[stewey]

...like a new kitchen at no. 10

Which was paid for by the Camerons.

 

Unlike the £650,000 spent by Derry Irvine on his flat in the Palace of Westminster.

 

Stewey

[NB Willawaw]

It doesn't prove much unless they were buying the boats for weekend use and still have their home - a lot of people are shifting from bricks and mortar to boats because they want to get the equity from their property.

 

Whew what a day.

 

At Aqueduct Marina we've just taken deposits on three boats in one afternoon. Nearly £200,000 worth.

 

Is there really a shortage of buyers out there with money to spend?

I do wonder how much the so-called recession is driven by gloom & doom merchants. Is it all being driven by the government as an excuse to tax us more?

[Ally]

well we're gobsmacked too...there is still money about for sure...we are currently booked until the middle of 2014!

One day.....I'll get my own boat finished......maybe I need to book myself my own slot!

Course, I'm seeing the other side too, my other half was made redundant last christmas and can't find anything...can't even get cleaning jobs! As he was a skilled professional and is only in his 30's, it's not good...

Edited May 31, 2011 by Ally

[Morat]

It suits the present incumbents to let us think the recession is worse than it is, because that way they can dismantle services, pocket the difference and keep our attention away from what they are up to.

 

I wish I could agree with you. The sad truth is that the economy has been propped up by unrealistic borrowing (often against artificially inflated house prices) and the merry go round didn't just stop, it span off its axle and smashed.

 

The only thing false about the recession is the ridiculously low interest rates vs 4.5% inflation. This forces anyone with any savings to raid the piggy bank and desperately look for something to invest in. This is called "creating consumer confidence" but is a big fat lie. The politicians have learnt from the economic train wreack of the early nineties that if they raise interest rates and let the housing market fall then they will be crucified by the house owning middle classes.

 

Voters think that the government is keeping interest rates low to help them out but the real reason to do it is to let inflation grow and help pay off our national debt. The banking crisis cost more than WW2 (in money at least) and if it all has to be paid off in tax revenue at 2008 prices then it will hurt even more. It will cost the public sector more jobs and services, and the private sector in even more taxation. Oh, more taxes for us all personally, of course....

[Dominic M]

I am finding that well kept boats marketed at a sensible price are selling, and quickly, to all types of buyer. Holiday and weekend use is a substantial part of the market, retirees who want to go exploring, and some who want to live aboard.

 

Where there is a bottleneck in sales is the shoddily built stuff, much of it in the last decade during the boom years, that came with lots of shiny bells and whistles, but fall to pieces all too quickly. Doors that no longer fit, sprayfoam insulation applied badly and thinly causing the interiors to blacken in places.

 

People are falling back on the experienced quality of boat builders with a reputation and longevity. The fly-by-night stuff is rusting away, gently but surely.

 

Aqueduct deserve to sell boats. Sue McCarthy is a charming person and a boat lover.

[ymu]

T

I wish I could agree with you. The sad truth is that the economy has been propped up by unrealistic borrowing (often against artificially inflated house prices) and the merry go round didn't just stop, it span off its axle and smashed.

 

The only thing false about the recession is the ridiculously low interest rates vs 4.5% inflation. This forces anyone with any savings to raid the piggy bank and desperately look for something to invest in. This is called "creating consumer confidence" but is a big fat lie. The politicians have learnt from the economic train wreack of the early nineties that if they raise interest rates and let the housing market fall then they will be crucified by the house owning middle classes.

 

Voters think that the government is keeping interest rates low to help them out but the real reason to do it is to let inflation grow and help pay off our national debt. The banking crisis cost more than WW2 (in money at least) and if it all has to be paid off in tax revenue at 2008 prices then it will hurt even more. It will cost the public sector more jobs and services, and the private sector in even more taxation. Oh, more taxes for us all personally, of course....

'In money at least'.

 

In absolute terms at least. The postwar debt was huge relative to GDP. It dwarfs the debt now. Debt repayments since the crash are still amongst the lowest since the war. It isn't anywhere near as bad as they are claiming.

[Lady Muck]

They're still going under in my trade. I lost one of my best clients in March, we'd worked together for five years. A couple of big wholesale fashion brands went under last week.

 

Got a call from my Irish client today to say they were changing the pricing structure (which probably means moving some of the production out of Italy). They're finding it tough, everyone is.

 

Quite a lot of my friends are still unemployed. So, no, I don't think the recession is over yet.

 

Yes there are people with money to spend (we're on the Thames, sharing locks with them), but I don't think they represent the average Joe at all.

[churchward]

T

'In money at least'.

 

In absolute terms at least. The postwar debt was huge relative to GDP. It dwarfs the debt now. Debt repayments since the crash are still amongst the lowest since the war. It isn't anywhere near as bad as they are claiming.

Let's not turn the topic into an economic politics bashing debate please. I guess what you say is true but post war Britain wasn't a great place to be at the time.

[Dominic M]

Statistics for the National Debt in 1946 show that the current debt is dwarfed by comparison.

 

Many older people are relatively recession proof. They have gained hugely from the lending policy of the banks through the last decade that we now criticise. Not all of course. Many older people are seeing their savings eroded in value with interest rates that are lower than inflation.

 

Whether you like it or not, public sector cuts are popular with much of the electorate. It is seen as bloated, with unaffordable pension schemes, and unnecessary jobs, and populated to a good extent by overpaid 9 to 5 people who don't work very hard. There is more than a grain of truth in that.

 

In 1979, the unions were seen as a force that needed to be brought to book. The electorate ensured that happened.

 

I think there is a majority mood now that feels the same about the public sector.

Edited May 31, 2011 by Dominic M

[TimD]

The recession doesn't hit everyone the same, and usually the very rich are not touched at all. A trip to Poole harbour to see the luxury sea going launches being built will show you that the top end of the market is still very buoyant.

 

Those who are made redundant, put on a tigh pay squeeze or miss out on that first job as companies are put off hiring are the ones who are bearing the brunt of the recession. If you have a stable comfortably paid job and a pre 2008 mortgage, then you're pretty much recession proof.

[Windfola]

Whether you like it or not, public sector cuts are popular with much of the electorate. It is seen as bloated, with unaffordable pension schemes, and unnecessary jobs, and populated to a good extent by overpaid 9 to 5 people who don't work very hard. There is more than a grain of truth in that.

 

Except that it is this very public sector that is designed to support the most vulnerable in society - the ill, the young, the very old and the poor. Potentially that is every one of us at some stage.

 

It includes the doctors, nurses, teachers, carers and the people who keep the streets free from filth. There's not one of those workers who is overpaid.

Edited May 31, 2011 by Windfola

[Morat]

Not a single overpaid doctor? Really?

[Dominic M]

Except that it is this very public sector that is designed to support the most vulnerable in society - the ill, the young, the very old and the poor. Potentially that is every one of us at some stage.

 

It includes the doctors, nurses, teachers, carers and the people who keep the streets free from filth. There's not one of those workers who is overpaid.

But that is not by any means all of the public sector, by a long shot. The executives, the planners, the risk assessors, the people who commission local authority branding (Notthamptonshire - let yourself grow), The people who run social housing quangos and stick their golf club membership on corporate credit cards, or have their office refurbished to accommodate their model racing car collection (these last two examples were the experience of my partner who worked for a depressing year for a government funded housing body).

 

It's easy to play the doctors and nurses card. But there is s lot of deadwood in the public sector, paid well for doing not much in jobs that are of little consequence. Some of them are in BW.

[nb Innisfree]

We bought our first property in '72 when we got married, we had a £6500 mortgage which frightened the life out of me, little did I know then that the next 9 months would see an unbelievable rise of over 100% in prices (possibly the fastest rise to date?) which contributed to a massive increases in the inflation rate, peaking at over 35% a few years later and during that time there was a mad rush to buy property with increasingly bigger mortgages fuelled by generous tax relief on them even if it was intended for a new car/washing machine/furniture etc. The rapid rise in peoples income triggered by high inflation which together rapidly shrank the relative size of your mortgage income just kept feeding on itself, it was madness but seemed ok at the time as we all became property tycoons, or so it seemed to us. In the late 70s we bought a detached 4 bedroomed house for £16k equal to about 4x an average annual income yet now that same house would sell today for nearly £250-290k I would guess, nearly 10x annual income, It has took over 30 years for that generation to be weaned off that roller coaster and let things stabilise a bit. It seems like some sort of dream looking back now, not surprising later generations never take lessons from the past. Any government is going to try and keep property prices down to try to avoid it happening again, to me 4.5% inflation rate seems paltry when I can recall the likes of Japan being the envy of the world with a rate of 5%. I can't see a solution until property prices are considerably less and that will be slow coming until people accept that as a reality, maybe inflation will invisibly lower those prices due to sellers thinking they have managed to get the original asking price after a few years interval. Or do most people have more financial savvy now and are able to see the wood rather than just the trees, I doubt it somehow, people as a whole tend to look back only to last month just think of today. Or will other unforseen events overtake all that anyway.

 

All only my perspective on it all.

[ymu]

Not a single overpaid doctor? Really?

There are loads of overpaid doctors. Thcy held the NHS to ransom until we stuffed their mouths with gold. You'd still be hard pushed to find one on over £200k though. Not banker wages. Hutton's review found 16 public sector workers on over £300k, mostly at the BBC and BW.

 

As an academic, I'd need a chair to get over £51k. Few profs are on more than £60k. Big money, but not exactly eye- watering.

 

The public sector pay propaganda is based on comparing sector with sector. About a quarter of pubic sector jobs require degrees and few are minimum wage. Less than 10% require degrees in the private sector and around a thrd of the jobs are minimum wage, ie below poverty level pay for a full-time job.

 

For every £1 on wages, the govt spends £1.50 with the private sector. Which is why it will hurt even more than the public sector will from this illiterate vandalism. And why we cannot cut the deficit by cutting spending. The tax take collapses and the benefits bill soars. It's self-defeating.

 

No doubt people will start noticing that no other country is doing this despite Osborne's bare-faced lies. He won't be able to fool enough of the people for much longer. Something has to give. Interesting times...

Edited June 1, 2011 by ymu

[cotswoldsman]

Not a single overpaid doctor? Really?

 

I guess it is all relative. my ex partner who qualified as a doctor in 1985 spent many years on very low earnings as a GP working many hours and on call 24 hours a day. Yes in the last few years she has started earning some decent money. The peoples whose lives she has saved did not seem to concerned what she was earning.

My nephew will start the slog to becoming a doctor this September this will involve at least 5 years as a student meaning before he qualifies he will have debts of about £70,000, he will need a fairly decent salary to service that debt.

[Dominic M]

 

 

For every £1 on wages, the govt spends £1.50 with the private sector.

Would you provide the source for this statistic? Thank you.

[Albert Smith]

 

As an academic, I'd need a chair to get over £51k.

 

I'd need a chair too if I could earn that sort of money, in fact I would probably need a reclining chair

 

Albert.

Edited June 1, 2011 by Albert Smith

[grahoom]

just wait until the inevitable rise in interest rates.

[ymu]

Would you provide the source for this statistic? Thank you.

Don't think it's controversial. Was in the press a bit when the public sector job cuts were announced along with the likely loss of the same number of jobs in the private sector for precisely this reason.

 

Have a dangerously revolutionary source: http://m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/sep/08/cuts-derailed-alternative-unions?cat=commentisfree&type=article