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Angelique

Cruising to the North from Gloucester and Sharpness to Ripon canal

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10 hours ago, TheDuker said:

So, you think setting out on a thirty mile upriver trip from Gloucester "at the moment", with two nights of hard frost forecast and levels up only a matter of a few inches would be "stupid"  because of the probability of a bit of snow melting "in a few days" time.

I think you're talking alarmist nonsense. Leave it at that.

It didn't actually freeze overnight in Worcestershire and there is about 16 hours worth of continuous snowfall now melting into the rivers. The Severn is rising and though it is well below levels that would cause concern I wouldn't be suggesting that novices leave Gloucester right now as they would need to book passage and they probably won't make it off the river until Wednesday (it's closed tomorrow). The level of the Severn isn't entirely dependent upon what happens in Wales.

I'd go with what I could see rather than relying on a forecast read in... er... Lancashire???

JP

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6 minutes ago, rusty69 said:

One to go then. 

Clear as mud? For anyone who hasnt read the Ecofan thread, you will need to watch the video on that thread posted in post 570 by Rusty69 for edification.

 

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On 10/12/2017 at 22:19, sharpness said:

I've been up & down the Severn many times & with the Met Office saying minus 12 in Wales & parts of the midlands tonight & Monday night there's no way I would be so stupid as to go out of Gloucester lock at the moment. When this snow starts melting & reaches the Severn in a few days, I certainly wouldn't want to be on the river. As a complete novice, Angelique has heeded the right advice & made the right decision. Leave it at that.

Quite!!
Snow has started to thaw up here at the head of the Severn, plus it is now raining. Levels here in town are already up on 3 days ago, and are expected to rise quite quickly.

I would suggest that The Duker accepts that there are people on this forum with far greater knowledge of the Severn than he seems to have.

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You can cover a lot of distance going quickly on the Trent and Ouse, but could easily be stopped in Newark or Cromwell waiting for safer conditions, likewise you could be waiting a long time at Selby for the Ouse, or stuck at Naburn trying to get a safe run through York and onwards.

Yes, Ripon is the closest to Newcastle, but as mentioned earlier it can be problematic getting public transport away from there.  Mooring at somewhere like Woodlesford (about 3 miles from Leeds) would make transport a lot easier (there is a small train station there, and about 8 mins to Leeds central station).

 

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1 hour ago, Iain_S said:

Nobody's on fourth, then ...

I'd give you a greenie but I've run out for the day.

No, I dont think anyone is ever on fourth. We use to be on the Forth but it was too cold up there so we move to the Severn (th)? Tomorrow is the pitcher if you are interested.

3 hours ago, Graham Davis said:


Snow has started to thaw up here at the head of the Severn, plus it is now raining. Levels here in town are already up on 3 days ago, and are expected to rise quite quickly.
 

It's raining. Levels are rising. The snow is melting.

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Mr Duker obviously considers himself an expert boater and is using this forum to let us all know that, he is also handing out bad advice to Newbies, and likes a good argument. It must be Tony Dunkley :D

................Dave

  • Greenie 2

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13 minutes ago, dmr said:

Mr Duker obviously considers himself an expert boater and is using this forum to let us all know that, he is also handing out bad advice to Newbies, and likes a good argument. It must be Tony Dunkley :D

................Dave

Similar Smooth and Polite Manner:DWell Spotted

Edited by cereal tiller

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On Friday 8 December 'Angelique' posted asking for some advice on moving their boat to Ripon from the Gloucester area. The plan was to cover the majority but not necessarily all of the total mileage during the stoppage free period from 16 Dec to 7 Jan (inc).

With the river in Gloucester around only 8'' - 9'' above normal Summer level, similar benign conditions up to Worcester and beyond, and a cold few days with some snow forecast for the Severn's catchment area, an opportunity existed from Saturday 9 December over the following few days for 'Angelique' to get her journey underway by getting her boat off the river and into the canal at Worcester in conditions that were as near ideal as could be expected for novices and unlikely to be bettered at this time of year. 

The mere suggestion that this 30 mile jaunt could be undertaken without delay, however, prompted an outburst of alarmist, bowel emptying, near hysteria from a few forum members shouting the odds about "poor advice" and declaring that "there's no way I would be so stupid as to go out of Gloucester lock at the moment".  

Contrary to these dire, and wholly ill-founded warnings the 30 mile journey up to Worcester could in fact have been accomplished by 'Angelique' in safety and with water levels below the recognized heights at which pleasure craft are advised against moving.  The river levels between Gloucester and Bewdley remained absolutely static until around midday on Wednesday when a slow rise began, not reaching the 'lock/river closure levels' downriver from Worcester until 2000 hrs on Thursday 14 December.

Bad advice and stupidity ? . . . yes, plenty of it, and all from a small number of contributors whose real knowledge of the river they claim know so well is clearly limited to the point of being utterly worthless, and whose motives for dispensing that worthless advice  appear to be focused on little more than gaining some sort of perverted satisfaction from their needless scaremongering.

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10 minutes ago, TheDuker said:

On Friday 8 December 'Angelique' posted asking for some advice on moving their boat to Ripon from the Gloucester area. The plan was to cover the majority but not necessarily all of the total mileage during the stoppage free period from 16 Dec to 7 Jan (inc).

With the river in Gloucester around only 8'' - 9'' above normal Summer level, similar benign conditions up to Worcester and beyond, and a cold few days with some snow forecast for the Severn's catchment area, an opportunity existed from Saturday 9 December over the following few days for 'Angelique' to get her journey underway by getting her boat off the river and into the canal at Worcester in conditions that were as near ideal as could be expected for novices and unlikely to be bettered at this time of year. 

The mere suggestion that this 30 mile jaunt could be undertaken without delay, however, prompted an outburst of alarmist, bowel emptying, near hysteria from a few forum members shouting the odds about "poor advice" and declaring that "there's no way I would be so stupid as to go out of Gloucester lock at the moment".  

Contrary to these dire, and wholly ill-founded warnings the 30 mile journey up to Worcester could in fact have been accomplished by 'Angelique' in safety and with water levels below the recognized heights at which pleasure craft are advised against moving.  The river levels between Gloucester and Bewdley remained absolutely static until around midday on Wednesday when a slow rise began, not reaching the 'lock/river closure levels' downriver from Worcester until 2000 hrs on Thursday 14 December.

Bad advice and stupidity ? . . . yes, plenty of it, and all from a small number of contributors whose real knowledge of the river they claim know so well is clearly limited to the point of being utterly worthless, and whose motives for dispensing that worthless advice  appear to be focused on little more than gaining some sort of perverted satisfaction from their needless scaremongering.

I don't disagree with you BUT the points I made which you seem to have ignored in your time line was that - 

1)  The river is closed every Tuesday and Wednesday through the winter.

2)  When open and passage has been booked, the river is only open from 8am till 4pm - which in practice means you will not get out of Gloucester lock much before 8:30am and must arrive at Diglis lock no later than about 3:30pm if you wish to do Gloucester to Worcester in a day.  If there is much flow on the river I could not travel up river fast enough.  In which case leaving Gloucester on a Monday would mean being stuck below Diglis lock until Thursday morning, which at this time of year I would rather not.  Of course they could leave the Severn at Tewkesbury and head up the Avon, or leave Gloucester on the Thursday if they want to go to Worcester with possibly an overnight stop below Diglis. 

So whilst I never said they should not attempt the passage (and maybe you were not including me amongst the' scaremongers), I did say they need to plan realistically and be prepared to change their plan should the river rise.  Oh and of course be confident that their boat would be happy running at much higher power than normal for the many hours on the river.

 

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47 minutes ago, Chewbacka said:

I don't disagree with you BUT the points I made which you seem to have ignored in your time line was that - 

1)  The river is closed every Tuesday and Wednesday through the winter.

2)  When open and passage has been booked, the river is only open from 8am till 4pm - which in practice means you will not get out of Gloucester lock much before 8:30am and must arrive at Diglis lock no later than about 3:30pm if you wish to do Gloucester to Worcester in a day.  If there is much flow on the river I could not travel up river fast enough.  In which case leaving Gloucester on a Monday would mean being stuck below Diglis lock until Thursday morning, which at this time of year I would rather not.  Of course they could leave the Severn at Tewkesbury and head up the Avon, or leave Gloucester on the Thursday if they want to go to Worcester with possibly an overnight stop below Diglis. 

So whilst I never said they should not attempt the passage (and maybe you were not including me amongst the' scaremongers), I did say they need to plan realistically and be prepared to change their plan should the river rise.  Oh and of course be confident that their boat would be happy running at much higher power than normal for the many hours on the river.

 

This is a very valid point in this case since the true river-worthiness may only be established once it's too late.

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1 hour ago, Chewbacka said:

I don't disagree with you BUT the points I made which you seem to have ignored in your time line was that - 

1)  The river is closed every Tuesday and Wednesday through the winter.

2)  When open and passage has been booked, the river is only open from 8am till 4pm - which in practice means you will not get out of Gloucester lock much before 8:30am and must arrive at Diglis lock no later than about 3:30pm if you wish to do Gloucester to Worcester in a day.  If there is much flow on the river I could not travel up river fast enough.  In which case leaving Gloucester on a Monday would mean being stuck below Diglis lock until Thursday morning, which at this time of year I would rather not.  Of course they could leave the Severn at Tewkesbury and head up the Avon, or leave Gloucester on the Thursday if they want to go to Worcester with possibly an overnight stop below Diglis. 

So whilst I never said they should not attempt the passage (and maybe you were not including me amongst the' scaremongers), I did say they need to plan realistically and be prepared to change their plan should the river rise.  Oh and of course be confident that their boat would be happy running at much higher power than normal for the many hours on the river.

 

I agree completely with what you said about the need for flexibility in planning and making the Gloucester to Worcester trip, but, as looked probable from the weather forecasts on the Saturday, there were in fact several days ahead when the chance of river levels rising significantly was virtually nil. Also, as you point out, there is a diversion onto the Avon available, and the trip could be broken up into two 15 mile legs with a stop lowside at Tewkesbury if necessary.

I was definitely NOT including you amongst the scaremongers, and I apologize if I gave that impression. I do, however, think it's nothing short of shameful when novice boaters are subjected quite unnecessarily to the sort of scaremongering that was being dished out in this thread in the guise of advice by a handful of people who clearly hadn't even bothered to give the matter a few minutes thoughtful consideration before posting any of their alarmist claptrap.

Edited by TheDuker

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4 hours ago, TheDuker said:

On Friday 8 December 'Angelique' posted asking for some advice on moving their boat to Ripon from the Gloucester area. The plan was to cover the majority but not necessarily all of the total mileage during the stoppage free period from 16 Dec to 7 Jan (inc).

With the river in Gloucester around only 8'' - 9'' above normal Summer level, similar benign conditions up to Worcester and beyond, and a cold few days with some snow forecast for the Severn's catchment area, an opportunity existed from Saturday 9 December over the following few days for 'Angelique' to get her journey underway by getting her boat off the river and into the canal at Worcester in conditions that were as near ideal as could be expected for novices and unlikely to be bettered at this time of year. 

The mere suggestion that this 30 mile jaunt could be undertaken without delay, however, prompted an outburst of alarmist, bowel emptying, near hysteria from a few forum members shouting the odds about "poor advice" and declaring that "there's no way I would be so stupid as to go out of Gloucester lock at the moment".  

Contrary to these dire, and wholly ill-founded warnings the 30 mile journey up to Worcester could in fact have been accomplished by 'Angelique' in safety and with water levels below the recognized heights at which pleasure craft are advised against moving.  The river levels between Gloucester and Bewdley remained absolutely static until around midday on Wednesday when a slow rise began, not reaching the 'lock/river closure levels' downriver from Worcester until 2000 hrs on Thursday 14 December.

Bad advice and stupidity ? . . . yes, plenty of it, and all from a small number of contributors whose real knowledge of the river they claim know so well is clearly limited to the point of being utterly worthless, and whose motives for dispensing that worthless advice  appear to be focused on little more than gaining some sort of perverted satisfaction from their needless scaremongering.

..and now the Severn is in the red at Tewksbury with levels in the top 10% of levels seen.

Not the place for a novice to be in an untested boat.

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1 hour ago, Dr Bob said:

..and now the Severn is in the red at Tewksbury with levels in the top 10% of levels seen.

Not the place for a novice to be in an untested boat.

True, and yet it seems Tewkesbury has no water: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-42355283

Also, Severn boaters cannot rely on being able to lock up onto the Avon this winter as the lock has a stoppage notice posted while awaiting repairs:

https://www.avonnavigationtrust.org/index.php?id=7

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and the Avon really is no place for a novice boaters anyway if there is any increase in flow. A couple of the locks are tricky, the sunken narrowboat at one of these serves as a reminder.

....................Dave

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9 hours ago, Dr Bob said:

..and now the Severn is in the red at Tewksbury with levels in the top 10% of levels seen.

Not the place for a novice to be in an untested boat.

How is this in any way relevant to the fact that the Severn at Tewkesbury, or for that matter anywhere else from Stourport  down to Gloucester, was NOT "in the red" from 0000 hours Saturday 9 December to 1300 hours on Thursday 14 December. That's five and a half days days that were available from the beginning of last weekend for the 30 mile and three locks passage from Gloucester to Worcester, and during which the river levels remained below the long established height/level ( 3' above normal Summer level) at which the river is deemed to have become too hazardous for pleasure craft ? 

As for your claim that - ". . and now the Severn is in the red at Tewksbury with levels in the top 10% of levels seen." - I have no idea where you got that nonsense from, but to put things in some sort of rational perspective with regard to the present minor flooding on the Severn, the highest level ever recorded at Tewkesbury was 5.50 metres on 22 July 2007, whereas the river level peaked at 2.89 metres at 2000 hours there yesterday, which is 2.61 metres ( 8' 7'') less than the highest ever recorded.

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1 hour ago, TheDuker said:

How is this in any way relevant to the fact that the Severn at Tewkesbury, or for that matter anywhere else from Stourport  down to Gloucester, was NOT "in the red" from 0000 hours Saturday 9 December to 1300 hours on Thursday 14 December. That's five and a half days days that were available from the beginning of last weekend for the 30 mile and three locks passage from Gloucester to Worcester, and during which the river levels remained below the long established height/level ( 3' above normal Summer level) at which the river is deemed to have become too hazardous for pleasure craft ? 

As for your claim that - ". . and now the Severn is in the red at Tewksbury with levels in the top 10% of levels seen." - I have no idea where you got that nonsense from, but to put things in some sort of rational perspective with regard to the present minor flooding on the Severn, the highest level ever recorded at Tewkesbury was 5.50 metres on 22 July 2007, whereas the river level peaked at 2.89 metres at 2000 hours there yesterday, which is 2.61 metres ( 8' 7'') less than the highest ever recorded.

Let deal with the last point first. Data from riverlevels.uk

https://www.riverlevels.uk/river-severn-tewkesbury-mythe-bridge#.WjY5e0vLh-U

It says:

The usual range of the River Severn at Mythe Bridge in more extreme weather conditions is between 0.41m and 2.80m. It has been between these levels for 90% of the time since monitoring began.

Current River Level: downred.png 2.827m

Current level recorded at 8:00am, Sunday 17th December GMT

 

By my reading the current level is 2.827 M which is twice the average level and into the top 10% of recorded levels. Similar story up at Diglis. Fact.

My problem with your advice was around your weather forecast assumption. Your note came over as authoritative wrt boats but was not sound advice and could have been dangerous wrt weather. You said

As for Winter time problems, ice is in reality the only additional problem that Winter can bring to the canals, and at present the forecast up to early January isn't for cold enough spell for that to be likely”.

At the time of your first post, the 4 main models used to predict the 10-14 day weather were not converging at all and therefore suggesting the weather could be OK for the following weekend and onwards was a pure guess. The only thing the models were agreeing on was some snow on the Sunday (10th) and a bigger snow event midweek. The weather forecast (at that time) for today and onwards over Christmas was totally up in the air with no convergence of the models. Some ensembles (see wx link I posted earlier) were suggesting a big freeze. Others were not.

You now, in  your last post talk about the OP having five and a half days to do the first part of the trip. At no time during the inital posts did you say - get going now. Even on the 10th (Sunday) you wrote:

"One way for you to make a start on widening your blinkered view of the practicalities of Angelique being able to fit 9 - 10 days boating into the stoppage free 22 days from 16 December to 7 January would be to check up on whether or not there are any scheduled stoppages on the suggested route"

With the closure of the river midweek, there was no way at that time the OP could have made it with sufficient time to plan the route (a novice - not an expert) and make sure all equipment/supplies on board. The short term weather forecast pointed very strongly to high river levels by the 15/16th Dec - which is exactly what we have. The levels are going down it may well be that it becomes do-able soon - but at the time of the advice no one could have predicted this given the model uncertainty.

Now, if we look forward, the weather forecast models ARE converging for the next 8-10 days and there is a high confidence that our weather will be dominated by the Atlantic flow (ie windy,wet, not cold) up until Boxing day - but there is no convergence after that. We just dont know what the weather will do after that time. Some are saying a mild 3-4 weeks. Others are saying the likelyhood of an SSW event (sudden stratospheric warming) is increasing and we will then all freeze up.

Whilst you might be happy to go on a long trip with unknown weather conditions, a novice boater may not have that confidence. We are lumpy boat sailors and did a lot of long sea passages (North Sea, Biscay etc) in bad weather. As a novice, we planned and planned and planned - and ultimately did these passages when weather windows looked good. Today I would not be put off by bad weather unless there were F8's in the forecast - unless it was a beat! There is a huge difference in the way a novice and an expert see a long trip.

 

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32 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

There is should be a huge difference in the way a novice and an expert see a long trip.

Completely agree with the thinking behind this, but have changed a word - unfortunately 'newbies' only 'know what they know' and are (probably) unaware of the potential dangers, they have, however, done the correct thing by asking, the difficulty now becomes which advice should they follow.

My advice ;

"If in doubt, do nowt"

"Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow"

"Keep you powder dry & your beer cold"

Edited by Alan de Enfield
  • Greenie 1

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