BBC weather forecasts

[rusty69]

Given that in 2018, BBC Weather changed supplier from the government Met Office to MeteoGroup, and as MeteoGroup is a private weather forecasting organisation based mainly in Europe, there should now be some pretty substantial historical data to decide which provides a more accurate forecast.

 

As I have been trying to dodge rain showers for the past 2 weeks to do some boat painting, does anyone know which forecast is more accurate in the UK?

[Tony Brooks]

40 minutes ago, rusty69 said:

Given that in 2018, BBC Weather changed supplier from the government Met Office to MeteoGroup, and as MeteoGroup is a private weather forecasting organisation based mainly in Europe, there should now be some pretty substantial historical data to decide which provides a more accurate forecast.

 

As I have been trying to dodge rain showers for the past 2 weeks to do some boat painting, does anyone know which forecast is more accurate in the UK?

 

I use both the Met Office and BBC weather programs on my computer, and they are usually pretty similar forecast wise, although occasionally there is a difference. Often in the % chance of rain.

[rusty69]

32 minutes ago, Tony Brooks said:

 

I use both the Met Office and BBC weather programs on my computer, and they are usually pretty similar forecast wise, although occasionally there is a difference. Often in the % chance of rain.

I looked at both of mine earlier today before deciding whether to bother painting. One said 50% chance of rain (5% when I looked yesterday). The other said 20%.

 

I just looked again. The one that said 50%, now says 10%, the other remains at 20 %.

 

To paint or not to paint, that is the question.

 

Likewise, tomorrows 'forecast' for the same time. One model suggests 10% chance of rain, whilst the other 27%.

26 minutes ago, rusty69 said:

 

To paint or not to paint, that is the question.

Actually, that wasn't the question. I would risk 10%, but perhaps not 20%.

 

I suppose one thing is certain. If I decide to paint, it will rain,100% guaranteed.

If I decide not to, it will stay dry.

26 minutes ago, rusty69 said:

I just looked again. The one that said 50%, now says 10%, the other remains at 20 %.

Within the last half hour, it has gone back to 50% chance of rain (from 10%).

 

The nowcast, it seems, is as changeable as the weather. Which, I suppose is to be expected.

 

Think I will just look out the window.

Edited May 17, 2023 by rusty69

[jpcdriver]

Very often when the forecast starts showing varying percentage risk of showers it is best to look at the weather map animation to get an idea of whether it is a definite front/band of rain coming through or scattered showers. It's the way they derive very localised forecasts from the projected data. Sometimes if your location is going to be right on the edge of a band of rain the localised forecast can vary drastically every few hours as the expected extent varies.

[Lily Rose]

I mainly use the BBC forecast but if I want a better idea of just how much rain is forecast to fall then I also use Metcheck.

 

I also find this weather radar to be far superior to the version on the BBC weather forecast site. https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

 

I use the netweather app on my phone, rather than the website, for the radar as I find it easier to use. It's not infallible but it's often very good for dodging showers.

[rusty69]

22 hours ago, rusty69 said:

 

Likewise, tomorrows 'forecast' for the same time. One model suggests 10% chance of rain, whilst the other 27%.

Tomorrow has arrived. Todays nowcast: one model is still saying 10% chance of rain, the other has increased to 50%.

 

I did decide to paint yesterday, it didn't rain, despite the 50% odds. I have tossed a coin this morning, and it has suggested I should ignore both forecasts and just get on with things.

[ditchcrawler]

The BBC is better than the Met today so I am going to believe they really know whats going to happen

[Peugeot 106]

On 25/08/2015 at 00:01, Henhouse said:

I don't particularly care what the BBC do.......................I watch the Lovely Lucy doing the weather on ITV

When Lucy does it I have to ask my wife afterwards what the forecast is but she’s toned it down lately.  Eat your heart out Nigella

[blackrose]

On 25/08/2015 at 00:16, Laurie Booth said:

They get the information from the Met Office.

 

Ultimately I think everyone does.

 

So apart from the loss of income to the Met office does it really matter if the BBC stops using Met office data? After all there are plenty of other good weather apps websites? 

 

It sounds like a good cost saving for the BBC to me which might be in the public interest since it's publicly funded. 

Edited May 18, 2023 by blackrose

[rusty69]

1 hour ago, blackrose said:

 

Ultimately I think everyone does.

 

So apart from the loss of income to the Met office does it really matter if the BBC stops using Met office data? After all there are plenty of other good weather apps websites? 

 

It sounds like a good cost saving for the BBC to me which might be in the public interest since it's publicly funded. 

Ultimately, I suppose it depends if you want an accurate forecast or a less expensive one.

 

There appears to be so many different apps, websites and models that all offer an differing views on what the weather might do; some of which get good reviews, it seems based on the interface itself, and not the forecast.

 

But the point is, there must be so much historical data available today that gives an indication, at least, of which model gives the most accurate forecast based on the numbers.

 

Perhaps that is just too simplistic a view, and some of them are good at predicting some types of weather better than others.