Narrowboat Values

[Brad Naylor]

This'll put the cat among the pigeons!

 

With the soaring house prices of the last ten years and the credit crunch now happening, many informed people are now predicting a crash in house prices followed by a deep recession as the credit led consumer boom ends. Personally, I tend to agree with these predictions.

 

If this did come to pass, how would narrowboat values be affected? What happened to narrowboat values in the early nineties when house prices fell?

 

Should I buy one now or wait a couple of years and pick up a bargain?

 

(Brad grabs his coat and makes a run for it! )

Edited September 13, 2007 by Brad Naylor

[Paul H]

This'll put the cat among the pigeons!

 

With the soaring house prices of the last ten years and the credit crunch now happening, many informed people are now predicting a crash in house prices followed by a deep recession as the credit led consumer boom ends. Personally, I tend to agree with these predictions.

 

If this did come to pass, how would narrowboat values be affected? What happened to narrowboat values in the early nineties when house prices fell?

 

Should I buy one now or wait a couple of years and pick up a bargain?

 

(Brad grabs his coat and makes a run for it! )

 

From anecdotal evidence secondhand prices are already coming down. People have less money to spend and there are an awful lot of boats on the market - 540 narrowboats on Apollo Duck alone. I have never seen so many brokerage boats at Whilton Marina.

 

So whilst advertised prices are optimistic - those that really want/need to sell will drop prices signficantly. See Bluestringpudding's threads.

 

And when a lot of New Boat Co/Amber/Narrowcraft boats come on to the market secondhand in a couple of years time the market will be even more flooded. I think top end boats will hold their price though.

 

But a lot of things will be cheaper in 2 years time (computers for example) but on the basis of expected deflation nobodywould buy anything. Boat prices may come down but ownership costs seem likely to go up significantly.

 

Anyway we buy boats with our heart rather than our heads. So go and buy one now but negotiate hard!

 

Paul H

[Neildudman]

Hi

 

Could used values be coming down as the 'newcomers' want floating apartments and not older style boats.

 

From my view point, I would want a floating apartment and not want to deal with replacing part / maintenance issues.

 

So, the used boats are not selling....

 

Just a thought.

[sarahavfc]

I think it is going to depend a lot on the quality of the shell. There is obviously a lot of boats coming onto the market from budget builders, and there will come a point where the market is saturated with these boats, and the resale value of these boats will reflect this. Theres a significantly lower number of top quality boats being built in this country and the resale value of these boats should remain a great deal higher.

[Brad Naylor]

Very interesting...

 

The lack of any hostile or defensive response to my deliberately provocative question rather tends to confirm my suspicions.

 

I would expect second-hand narrowboat prices to plummet in the next few years as money gets tighter. Many people will have funded their purchase by remortgaging their home to release capital; while house prices were flying this seemed a safe bet, but with increased interest rates and the probabilty of house price falls (all over the papers today) that narrowboat is going to seem like a very expensive luxury to many - one that must be sacrificed.

 

I have been contemplating for a while buying a sailaway and fitting it out myself. I am now planning on waiting a while in the hope of picking up a nice second-hand boat for around the same price as the sailaway.

 

Tell me if I'm wrong.

 

Cheers

Brad

Edited September 13, 2007 by Brad Naylor

[Westyman]

FWIW Andy Burnett's brokerage latest update shows 1 new boat added and 5 deposits received - if that continues he'll have none left!! (assuming deposits turn to real sales)

[Strads]

FWIW Andy Burnett's brokerage latest update shows 1 new boat added and 5 deposits received - if that continues he'll have none left!! (assuming deposits turn to real sales)

 

 

Like all things if we could really predict accurately then you could make a reasonable guestimate.

 

 

I think you need to carefully look at the previous house price slow down (crash) and the reasons in the economy then and then see if the same conditions are there now. Then factor in the current "market" re second hand narrow boats and then the additional apparent factor of cheaper new boats from where ever -

 

As an expensive leisure hobby - those that do it on modest margins will be the most effected and either quit or go sammler to reduce costs or goto a shared user basis.

 

Those seeking compact alternatives to house may see all narrow boats as potential bargins (compared to a house/flat in many parts) and that might counter the demand by leisure users dropping down.

 

Re the top end boats - I suspect they will suffer least but like all things there may still be less people with big money.

 

so - who will be right - ??

[carlt]

Very interesting...

 

The lack of any hostile or defensive response to my deliberately provocative question rather tends to confirm my suspicions.

Blimey, if that was deliberately provocative then you are just too nice!

 

Seriously, though, there is the possibility that, as houses are now out of reach of the first time buyer on an average wage, the prospect of a liveaboard lifestyle could become more attractive, pushing up boat prices.

[Maverick]

Very interesting...

 

The lack of any hostile or defensive response to my deliberately provocative question rather tends to confirm my suspicions.

 

I would expect second-hand narrowboat prices to plummet in the next few years as money gets tighter. Many people will have funded their purchase by remortgaging their home to release capital; while house prices were flying this seemed a safe bet, but with increased interest rates and the probabilty of house price falls (all over the papers today) that narrowboat is going to seem like a very expensive luxury to many - one that must be sacrificed.

 

I have been contemplating for a while buying a sailaway and fitting it out myself. I am now planning on waiting a while in the hope of picking up a nice second-hand boat for around the same price as the sailaway.

 

Tell me if I'm wrong.

 

Cheers

Brad

 

I dont think your wrong Brad and your post isnt original The topic has been raised before. The ever increasing running costs are forcing more boats onto the sales market and there does appear more boats than buyers.

 

The same however can't be said of houses which are still commanding very good prices and are being snapped up as fast as ever. But as you said its coming and we're all doomed Mr Mannering Doomed I say Doomed

[doomed1]

I dont think your wrong Brad and your post isnt original The topic has been raised before. The ever increasing running costs are forcing more boats onto the sales market and there does appear more boats than buyers.

 

The same however can't be said of houses which are still commanding very good prices and are being snapped up as fast as ever. But as you said its coming and we're all doomed Mr Mannering Doomed I say Doomed

 

 

WOT

[KenK]

Seriously, though, there is the possibility that, as houses are now out of reach of the first time buyer on an average wage, the prospect of a liveaboard lifestyle could become more attractive, pushing up boat prices.

 

As we all know the biggest problem for a liveaboard is finding a mooring, boats might come down in value but if your possibility comes true I'll bet moorings go up.

 

Ken

[Gary Peacock]

Prices will come down in the event of a recession and with the flood of cheap hulls better hulls should in theory be worth more money, the reality is the relationship between cheap hulls and expensive hulls always remains fairly constant. (A cheap hull is always a cheap hull a expensive hull is always a expensive hull if you get my drift.)

 

Why does everyone assume because it is cheap and isn't built in the UK it is not a good hull?

 

I owned a 1967 VW Beetle it was a good car and fairly cheap when new and in 1997 it was still on the road largely intact my first proper car a Metro bought brand new by that time had been scrapped.

[Maverick]

WOT

 

Oh there you are Tell em you agree

[bargeeboy]

Why does everyone assume because it is cheap and isn't built in the UK it is not a good hull?

Thanks for your wise words. I should however note that we source all our steel (except base plates) in Birmingham and ship it out each month. This ensures quality of the steel and makes it a lot easier when the boat arrives in the paint shop as the steel has never been in the open. All Marine parts are also sourced in the UK as are the windows, engines and drive train. We even purchase our welding equipment from the Midlands. Our factory management is British and are experienced Canal Boat people, and therefore we are only employing Polish craftsman who would probably be building boats in the UK if they were here. The great savings at the Narrowcraft factory in Poland is the overheads which are a fraction of what we pay for our small basin at Alvecote.

[Paul H]

Hi

 

Could used values be coming down as the 'newcomers' want floating apartments and not older style boats.

 

From my view point, I would want a floating apartment and not want to deal with replacing part / maintenance issues.

 

So, the used boats are not selling....

 

Just a thought.

I don't think you're alone in thinking this. New narrowboats (thanks partly to those from Poland) are extraordinarily good value - especially compared them sea going boats or even river cruisers. It's just that secondhand prices are way too high. Secondhand prices should reflect refurbishment costs in the same way that housebuyers budget for new kitchens and bathrooms.

 

At one time secondhand boats were attractive as they avoided a long wait but as delivery times have come down there is not even that advantage. I think that people will have to get used to the fact that boats will depreciate like a car rather than appreciate like a house particularly as they now contain more and more technology.

 

Of course none of this really applies to boats from CTS, RWD, Fuller, Wain, Kemp etc. - their quality and rarity will help maintain prices - or indeed any boat I will ever own!

 

Paul H

[Gary Peacock]

I don't do a lot now in the way of brokerage but when I did it was becoming very obvious that very old fashioned fit outs and designs were to be avoided like the plague some were very good boats but they just didn't sell!

 

The point about the fall off in lead times along with a certain amount of desperation to sell new boats in some sectors is having some effect on used boat values, but the circle can continue in that if used boat prices reduce further and they become more attractive then the demand for new builds also falls off and the circle gains more momentum.

 

The problem is the market is changing, it's not a case of pointing fingers at those who import or build budget boat or even those specialist builders who continually drive up the expectations (And prices!) of new potential customers it's just a case of change.

 

Another fairly obvious thing is how many narrowboats get scrapped? Is it just a case of the bucket is nearly full?

[blackrose]

Why does everyone assume because it is cheap and isn't built in the UK it is not a good hull?

 

And why do some assume that because it's cheap and is built in the UK it's not a good hull?

Edited September 14, 2007 by blackrose

[Timleech]

Another fairly obvious thing is how many narrowboats get scrapped? Is it just a case of the bucket is nearly full?

 

 

Nowhere near enough.

 

People will continue spending money to keep an old tub afloat when to me it doesn't seem rational, if it were a car it would have been crushed long ago - except that the old tub still seems to have a 'value' which makes patching it up ad infinitum 'worthwhile'. I'm sure that'll change if secondhand prices drop significantly. There are quite a few boats around from the sixties and seventies, the days of 1/4" bottoms and wet bilges, which have IMO reached the end of their natural lives.

 

Tim

[carlt]

Nowhere near enough.

 

People will continue spending money to keep an old tub afloat when to me it doesn't seem rational, if it were a car it would have been crushed long ago - except that the old tub still seems to have a 'value' which makes patching it up ad infinitum 'worthwhile'. I'm sure that'll change if secondhand prices drop significantly. There are quite a few boats around from the sixties and seventies, the days of 1/4" bottoms and wet bilges, which have IMO reached the end of their natural lives.

 

Tim

This is a very negative attitude. I think we should be cutting back on the number of new boats and encouraging the restoration, and renovation of what is already there.

 

Environmentally speaking, keeping your classic 1960's boat afloat is far better than having a new one built.

[Timleech]

This is a very negative attitude. I think we should be cutting back on the number of new boats and encouraging the restoration, and renovation of what is already there.

 

Environmentally speaking, keeping your classic 1960's boat afloat is far better than having a new one built.

 

As a general principle I agree, but you obviously haven't seen the amount of rusty junk on the dry-dock that I have

 

Tim

[carlt]

you obviously haven't seen the amount of rusty junk on the dry-dock that I have

 

Tim

Possibly not but I've served enough time in dock to get a reasonable idea.

[Liam]

As a general principle I agree, but you obviously haven't seen the amount of rusty junk on the dry-dock that I have :rolleyes:Tim

 

If you're being paid for either moorings or for the usage of the dock, who cares what uses it as long as you get the money? It could be a 50ft highly polished and shiny new build or it could be a cut down old motor which has the arse falling off it. At the end of the day they're still someones pride and joy.

Edited September 14, 2007 by Liam

[chris w]

My two-penneth worth..............

 

When I looked at buying a narrowboat I "thought" I would be buying second-hand. However, there is such good value in new boats nowadays that it was worth paying a little more to get a new one. ie: secondhand prices seem to me unrealistically high. Many were virtually the same price as I could buy new, and of course there are likely to be far less hidden issues on a new boat.

 

Secondly. the housing market is driven (like all markets) by supply and demand. If house prices rise to levels at which in reality most first-time buyers truly cannot afford them, then the whole chain stops. The next one up the chain can't move because the first-time buyer can't afford to buy and so the next guy up can't move and it's a domino effect from top to bottom.

 

What happens then is a "readjustment" to a level that will "clear" the majority of transactions.

 

However, what causes a "crash" is usually a self-fulfilling prophecy brought on by the media hype about a potential "crash" which means first-time buyers wait to see what happens, so the chain has to lower its prices because no-one is buying and everyone is waiting.

 

There will always be people so dumb as to always live beyond their means on credit. I can't believe the stupid idiots who claim on the TV ads "we cleared our debts with one simple loan and had enough left over to buy a car"!!!!! What they actually did was lower their monthly payments by extending their outstanding debts over 30 years but vastly increasing their overall outgoings. And that car will be a new part of their debt too! They will presumably spend even more now on credit since their debt payments just halved!

 

Are there really people like this with a molecule for a brain or is it just a TV sitcom

 

Chris

Edited September 14, 2007 by chris w

[thomasthetanker]

The housepricecrash started this morning anyway

Northern Rock down 25%, Paragon down 27% both are buy to let lenders

 

Rightmove about to release figures showing 2.6% drop in asking prices

[Callunna]

With our usual cr*p sense of timing, our house is on the market. Several people interested but the usual chain is preventing a sale - there seem to be no first time buyers around.

 

The day after we do finally manage to sell, no doubt there'll be an upturn and values will rocket.

 

As for buying a boat, we also thought a secondhand one was our only option but we're now seriously looking at having one built to our exact spec. I did email a boatbuilder on this forum a few days ago, but he hasn't replied. He must be too busy, which I suppose is a good sign for the industry.

 

However, what prompted me to reply to this thread was the mention of buying a 60s/70s hull and restoring it. This appeals to me. But where are they to be found? I've scoured every resource I can think of but the only one I've seen has an unsuitable air draught for the L&L bridges.

 

Does anyone know where else I should look? I heard BW were selling off some stock but there's no info on their website, or GoIndustry's.