How cheap?

[Supermalc]

Now that house prices are coming down (todays papers) I wonder how long it will be before the cost of narrowboats drop. Some experts believe house prices will settle around 80% of their current value (over value) the middle of next year.

 

Will narrowboats do the same. Given there are more or less no moorings available for anyone to live on one, plus many who have sold up, will no doubt be disallusioned after a winter afloat (especially if it's a cold one), the market may? be flooded next year.

 

So is it feasable to think a top of the range narrowboat will be around £60,000 next summer, or will our 'proper' inflation make up the shortfall?

[onthecut]

It's always been my understanding that boat prices moved in line with house prices, but that was before the seeming explosion in the numbers of boats sold. As the cost of keeping a boat (especially if only for leisure use) rises, and the numbers in the used market are greater, then I see prices falling, with a knock on to new prices. I think this will be compounded if BW's belt tightening starts to lead to definite neglect on the system. I also think there is an element of fashion at play and the narrowboat scene may be at a high point and when they drop out of the public consciousness again, this too will depress prices.

 

Mike.

[Lesley S]

Don't know whether its good or bad house and boat prices falling, at the moment I'm trying to sell my house, need to buy another, smaller, cheaper house and a narrowboat, plus upkeep of both!!! All a bit daunting, important to follow a dream tho.

[Barry]

Hello LesleyS and welcome to the forum

 

Pop along to the Virtual Pub later and someone will buy you a virtual pint

[dacaB]

I think you need to wait and see, the report of a fall in house prices was 'gobaldygook' at best, the money men seem to think that interest rate cuts are due again next year, this will almost certainly mean that house prices will remain healthy.............but, who would have forcast the Northern Rock issue.

[Supermalc]

I think you need to wait and see, the report of a fall in house prices was 'gobaldygook' at best, the money men seem to think that interest rate cuts are due again next year, this will almost certainly mean that house prices will remain healthy.............but, who would have forcast the Northern Rock issue.

 

Doesn't affect me in the slightest, one way or the other.........however

 

FACTS:-

 

My house was on the market for £6500 in 1978.

 

I bought it for £5400 in January 1979, moved in May 1979.

 

Price almost doubled to around £10,000 the next year increasing to £17.000 within 2 years.

 

It then fell to £14.000 where it stayed until around 1988, where it increased to £40,000.

 

The following year or so it fell back to £30,000 where it has stayed until around 3 to 4 years ago.

 

The house next door, my 'twin' has just sold for close to £100,000

 

So I expect mine will fall to around £80,000 middle of next year, where I expect it will remain for a few years.

 

It has in fact been a very good, and reliable guide to the value of the housing market for nearly 30 years.

[BigRoj]

We are getting 2 interest rate cuts next year, this is reliable information from the B of E.

 

House prices fall because the media says they will, because it's either a slow news day or they've fell out with someone and they want their 'bricks and mortar' assets to be worth less so they look less attractive to a hostile take over bidder. (Cynical, me? No, used to work in the press!)

 

You should never, ever believe what you read in the press, the fourth estate prints/broadcasts what IT wants you to know, not necessarily the truth.

[Supermalc]

You should never, ever believe what you read in the press

 

Truest statement I've read.

 

I've yet to read a press report of any type that actually reports the facts. They either get the date/place/time/name/people/ etc. etc. wrong.

 

Mind you, I've not bought a paper/magazine for well over 15 years, so if only everyone followed suit.................

[Guest]

Truest statement I've read.

 

I've yet to read a press report of any type that actually reports the facts. They either get the date/place/time/name/people/ etc. etc. wrong.

 

Mind you, I've not bought a paper/magazine for well over 15 years, so if only everyone followed suit.................

Likewise, leave the rubbish on the shelf where it belongs. They get th Dily Express at work, which I do have a peep at once in a while. What a load of tripe.

[Tinally]

I must concede that any news story that I've had personal experience of has not been the same story that appeared in the press or on the TV. They just broadcast the parts that make a good story for them. Isn't that a surprise!

 

I remember an entire Channel 4 TV programme being given over to a "Dangerous corner" on a road near here. There's nothing dangerous about it at all. Every accident was down to someone driving faster than was safe in the prevailing weather conditions.

 

Dick

[carlt]

I must concede that any news story that I've had personal experience of has not been the same story that appeared in the press or on the TV. They just broadcast the parts that make a good story for them. Isn't that a surprise!

 

I remember an entire Channel 4 TV programme being given over to a "Dangerous corner" on a road near here. There's nothing dangerous about it at all. Every accident was down to someone driving faster than was safe in the prevailing weather conditions.

 

Dick

The local rag's report on Usk's burning insists that fire destroyed a barge. I'm resisting putting pen to paper.

[chris w]

Pricing is about supply and demand. There is an acute housing shortage which is the reason that house prices have risen steeply over the past few years.

 

They will naturally settle out at the price at which first-time buyers genuinely can't afford to get on to the housing ladder. If first-time buyers don't buy there is no chain and the buying/selling process grinds down till prices drop sufficiently to allow buyers to enter the market to clear the surplus. It's simple economics.

 

Of course rumour has its place too (in the short term). If the press say that house prices are going to fall, then many buyers will hold back and wait and the market will slow down. This can sometimes lead to a real drop in prices as sellers, keen to sell, lower their prices to stimulate their sale (and the market). These rumours often happen too on the stock market and it can be a great time to buy up a load of shares that make a huge profit when they rise again in the short term after the rumours are shown to be just that.

 

There is no underlying reason why house prices should fall - there are not enough houses. We may have reached what is just "affordable" for first-time buyers but that would lead to house price stability rather than a fall.

 

It's analogous to auctioning off mooring sites. Prices will inevitably rise, because of short supply compared to demand, but there will always be some buyers who can afford to pay "over the odds" to secure the mooring they want and so push up the price for others. It's market forces - no-one said it had to be fair.

 

Chris

Edited November 19, 2007 by chris w

[Supermalc]

You are correct of course Chris ......... only there isn't an acute housing shortage. There are too many people, and too many empty houses. Plus many people now own more than one.

 

If these three things were properly addressed, there would be no need to concrete over what's left of our countryside, plus houses would be affordable.

[Gnome K Gnome]

..... no-one said it had to be fair.

 

Chris

 

If life was fair, bras would only come in one size....

[Yoda]

If life was fair, bras would only come in one size....

 

Dont tell magnetman, he's just come out!

[BlueStringPudding]

If life was fair, bras would only come in one size....

 

 

[chris w]

You are correct of course Chris ......... only there isn't an acute housing shortage. There are too many people, and too many empty houses. Plus many people now own more than one.

 

If these three things were properly addressed, there would be no need to concrete over what's left of our countryside, plus houses would be affordable.

 

There is a an acute shorthage of "affordable" housing for lower income families to buy......................... and what's wrong with people owning more than one house? Mind you, I think families should be limited to 2 kids only - that would solve the population problem as 2.1 kids per couple are needed to sustain the population in this country.

 

I was talking to a Welshman the other day who was waxing lyrical about the upsurge in the Welsh language over the last 20-30 years. I pointed out that due to the number of young people leaving Wales to find employment elsewhere, the net population growth rate in wales is only 1.7 per couple. Ergo, unfortunately the population of Wales will decline and with it the inevitable decline of the Welsh language.

 

Chris

[Supermalc]

There is a an acute shorthage of "affordable" housing for lower income families to buy

 

 

Of course there is. If houses were sold at cost, belonged to EVERY member of the family, who had to maintain and live in them, and the price NEVER went up, everyone could buy their own house.

 

 

 

......................... and what's wrong with people owning more than one house?

 

There is not enough land available on this island to allow all a limited share. Plus the usual of raping the planet.

 

Mind you, I think families should be limited to 2 kids only - that would solve the population problem as 2.1 kids per couple are needed to sustain the population in this country.

 

I was talking to a Welshman the other day who was waxing lyrical about the upsurge in the Welsh language over the last 20-30 years. I pointed out that due to the number of young people leaving Wales to find employment elsewhere, the net population growth rate in wales is only 1.7 per couple. Ergo, unfortunately the population of Wales will decline and with it the inevitable decline of the Welsh language.

 

Each to his own......

Chris

 

Please remember, shelter i.e. housing is a necessity, NOT a luxury. And as much an important part of life as water. Why should anyone in a so called civilized country be denied this.

 

Also remember, if you don't want to work, or take part in that society in a constructive way, you should NOT expect any of the benefits, even the absolute necessities.

Edited November 19, 2007 by Supermalc

[AMModels]

The local rag's report on Usk's burning insists that fire destroyed a barge. I'm resisting putting pen to paper.

Send me the link I wont resist.

 

[carlt]

Send me the link I wont resist.

 

No link sadly (I searched)

[Lady Muck]

Even though I can't afford a house and I'm a Londoner on a boat, (which might make me a hypocrite), I always think it's a bit bonkers when people cite boats as an alternative to houses for every Tom, Dick and Harry. If you don't know if you would like boating and you aren't prepared for what it involves, it could be a nightmare and it surely wouldn't suit every skint potential homeowner out there. We've had more than one potential liveaboard stay with us, many have left the boat saying 'it was a great weekend but we've changed our minds.' <the point of realisation generally occurs when they see the Submarine Captain manhandling a sloshing poo cassette out of the vessel>. Live in a house and you have it easy and they can be a bit surprised at the amount of daily faffing about the boater has to do to ensure there is water, warmth, electricity and a useable bog!

 

I also find the Henley apartment type liveaboard boats a bit misleading to potential boat dwellers.

 

eg. - how much power would you need to run that home entertainment system and have you any idea how that cream carpet is gonna look in just days from now?

 

Anyway, aside from all that - boatings hardly bloody cheap is it?

 

Excuse me if I'm rambling, I've been up working most nights this week, I am designing Noddy slippers for a well known supermarket and it's sending me a bit doolally, (as character licensing tends to do), so I've started on the Tempranillo. *hic*

Edited November 20, 2007 by Lady Muck

[chris w]

If houses were sold at cost, belonged to EVERY member of the family, who had to maintain and live in them, and the price NEVER went up, everyone could buy their own house.

 

Take a course in economics and discover why this is not true. Let's suppose house prices were fixed by the Government and could not go up:

 

1. No-one would build houses to sell as it would be a diminishing return on the investment due to labour and material inflation.

 

2. No-one would want to buy houses as, with no capital growth (ie: no house price inflation), one might as well rent and have no mortgage.

 

3. No-one would build houses to rent as, with no capital growth (ie: no house price inflation), one could obtain a far greater return by investing in other commodities/portfolios rather than house building.

 

Chris

[Supermalc]

Take a course in economics

Chris

 

 

I don't have to.........ecomomics don't work.

 

Do you honestly believe it is right and proper for half the worlds population to be starving, when the other half is overfed......simply because we base our society on money.

 

And I'm NOT the author of that statement.

[ChrisPy]

There are too many people ..................

so how do you fix that, apart from the unnecessary immigration crisis?

 

By the way, I agree wholeheartedly - nearly all the major problems in the world are the inevitable consequence of an unsustainable population.

 

I remember working for the UN in 1975. They published a population report which predicted the world population growth. By the end of the 20th century it would grow to 8billion - which would be unsustainable. Therefore, they predicted, there would be a major world calamity between 1975 and 2000. ..... We still haven't seen it, but it must be just around the corner.

[Supermalc]

so how do you fix that, apart from the unnecessary immigration crisis?

 

By the way, I agree wholeheartedly - nearly all the major problems in the world are the inevitable consequence of an unsustainable population.

 

I remember working for the UN in 1975. They published a population report which predicted the world population growth. By the end of the 20th century it would grow to 8billion - which would be unsustainable. Therefore, they predicted, there would be a major world calamity between 1975 and 2000. ..... We still haven't seen it, but it must be just around the corner.

 

Exactly Chris

 

How to fix our overpopulation.......60% (or so) of pregnancies are unwanted.......a simple solution is just around the corner. We just have to grasp the nettle. (see other thread)