Valuing a Narrowboat

[MtB]

22 minutes ago, Mike Todd said:

Of course, in itself age does not generally matter much (but it might to someone whose main aim in life is to have the latest thing) but in this context it acts as a proxy measure. That is, it stands in for other factors which are well correlated but much less easy to determine.

 

For example, hull thickness is pretty crucial but cannot easily be measured just by standing next to it (which is what brokers do). Hence, potential customers will need to look at other factors. For the specific application, you also need to take factors which can be expressed in a numerical form. (well, almost)

 

Also, age gives a broad-brush indicator of the likely style of the interior fit-out. Less than about 20 years and it is likely to have oak-faced plywood, sealed with lacquer or just painted, and probably a shower room withe a tiled shower. 20-40 years and expect pine T&G panelling varnished and getting dark, and a bathroom with one of those weird hip baths, and plastic panels on the wall. Usually quite dated-looking.

 

 

[toppy007]

Hi all, just wanted to say thank you for your input on this topic.

 

I've put together a short! questionnaire with the aim of beginning to collect data.

 

It would be great if some of you were to cast an eye on it, fill it out or just comment on it

 

Please follow this link

.

https://forms.gle/y78R1vdMfziU4ZpY8

 

Kind Regards

 

Chris

 

[harrybsmith]

Hopefully you have a response. Just year rather than dd/mm/yyyy would be much less clunky if poss for the questions that entails, I doubt many know exact dates. Can you add Fernie to the list of boat builders too, ther than that seems reasonable and well researched

[toppy007]

38 minutes ago, harrybsmith said:

Hopefully you have a response. Just year rather than dd/mm/yyyy would be much less clunky if poss for the questions that entails, I doubt many know exact dates. Can you add Fernie to the list of boat builders too, ther than that seems reasonable and well researched

Noted! Can't seem to get Google to allow me to just collect the year! I might just change to a typed response.

 

Will add that boat builder too 

 

I did get the response

 

Could I just check the value of the boat was correct?

 

Do you mind saying what you entered? 

 

Regards Chris

[harrybsmith]

16 minutes ago, toppy007 said:

Noted! Can't seem to get Google to allow me to just collect the year! I might just change to a typed response.

 

Will add that boat builder too 

 

I did get the response

 

Could I just check the value of the boat was correct?

 

Do you mind saying what you entered? 

 

Regards Chris

 

Yeah value was correct... Got to train a model with outliers too... 

 

(£3300 for those wondering, regulars on here will probably work out what boat that is) 

[Allan(nb Albert)]

40 minutes ago, toppy007 said:

Noted! Can't seem to get Google to allow me to just collect the year! I might just change to a typed response.

 

Will add that boat builder too 

 

I did get the response

 

Could I just check the value of the boat was correct?

 

Do you mind saying what you entered? 

 

Regards Chris

You could change the question to how many years old is your boat and use dropdown or scale to collect the info, I think.

 

[cuthound]

No mention of whether a bow thruster is fitted or not. This is desirable to some boaters.

 

No mention of how many berths, ot whether the main bed is fixed or convertible, again this is important to many buyers.

 

No mention of condition of paintwork, which can cost up to £15,000 plus signwriring for a back to the metal professional repaint.

[toppy007]

Yeah bow thruster is a good point! 'And I'll add paintwork to a rating to the bottom.

 

And I'll stew on births interms of keeping the questionnaire concise! 

 

 

 

 

[Karen Lea Rainey]

Hi, I have filled the form in, quite interesting  questions.

We have a traditional boatmans cabin and that needs to be considered somewhere in the feedback questions, be it a good thing or a bad thing.

(Depending on what a prospective purchaser/valuer may think of their usefulness.

Also a dedicated engine room, good item or bad for some modern tastes.

[MtB]

I had a brief gander at the form and it seemed to focus on what the boat last changed hands for, and when.

 

Pretty pointless I thought.

 

 

 

[Alan de Enfield]

13 minutes ago, MtB said:

I had a brief gander at the form and it seemed to focus on what the boat last changed hands for, and when.

 

Pretty pointless I thought.

 

 

 

 

Exactly - the 'value' of a boat can vary day by day - if it gets resprayed or catches fire it could be 'worth' +/- £10000 on what it sold for.

 

I said at the start of the thread - I think it is (probably a school project) solution looking for a problem.

[toppy007]

7 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Exactly - the 'value' of a boat can vary day by day - if it gets resprayed or catches fire it could be 'worth' +/- £10000 on what it sold for.

 

I said at the start of the thread - I think it is (probably a school project) solution looking for a problem.

Chill guys (Constructive criticism welcome tho)

 

I've made some tweaks anyways with the advice given.

 

https://forms.gle/1KW5ig5PaMq9HUHs5

 

Regards

[Allan(nb Albert)]

43 minutes ago, toppy007 said:

Chill guys (Constructive criticism welcome tho)

 

I've made some tweaks anyways with the advice given.

 

https://forms.gle/1KW5ig5PaMq9HUHs5

 

Regards

Ok - constructive criticism coming up.

 

I feel your project will fail because you will be unable to get sufficient numbers of boaters to fill in your form. Your project will founder if your base data only consists a couple of dozen records. You need to consider how many boaters need to respond to make the base data meaningfull.

 

I have suggested an alternative approach to data collection that does not require, say, 2000 boaters to fill in a form. However, this approach is based on asking price rather than selling price or value. Feel free to ignore it.

 

It has been suggested that your project is a solution looking for a problem. Take a hard look at this. Are you trying to learn a programming language such as Python using boaters as guinea pigs or are you using skills developed over years to help the boating community?

 

If it is the former, I suggest you own up and ask for help. If it is the latter, trust more in your own judgement. 

[Mike Todd]

13 hours ago, Allan(nb Albert) said:

Ok - constructive criticism coming up.

 

I feel your project will fail because you will be unable to get sufficient numbers of boaters to fill in your form. Your project will founder if your base data only consists a couple of dozen records. You need to consider how many boaters need to respond to make the base data meaningfull.

 

I have suggested an alternative approach to data collection that does not require, say, 2000 boaters to fill in a form. However, this approach is based on asking price rather than selling price or value. Feel free to ignore it.

 

It has been suggested that your project is a solution looking for a problem. Take a hard look at this. Are you trying to learn a programming language such as Python using boaters as guinea pigs or are you using skills developed over years to help the boating community?

 

If it is the former, I suggest you own up and ask for help. If it is the latter, trust more in your own judgement. 

I think that the OP has already indicated it is a student project. And so? we all have to learn by doing practical things as well as understanding the theory behind it all.

 

Some of the factors which have been advanced as ones to take into consideration may not affect value (ie what price both seller and buyer will agree) but more to do with whether an individual would consider purchasing that boat. The two may or may not be well correlated. Factors which  most boaters would take into consideration will ultimately impact price but not if only a few. This is where some research may well be helpful - which factors do appear to be well correlated to price. (Of course we cannot in general determine value as the agreed price is rarely disclosed). The asking price is probably most well correlated with the seller - or more especially the broker. In most cases the asking price will be at or close to a figure recommended by a broker who will, for the most part, only look at a few things. The other factors may or may not be correlated - that is where research may help. However, this will require some in depth consideration to make the leap from correlation to causality.

 

For example, it may well be that the name of the boat has a big effect - though how you metricate names I am not sure but one that has such a quirky name that almost any buyer will want to change is likely to have an impact, especially if it is very close to a socially unacceptable word.

 

It is clearly an interesting project even though I suspect that the OP is beginning to discover that a useful result is probably beyond the resources available (ie it may need professional input especially in terms of obtaining the non-parametric data that is clearly important). That does not make it any the less interesting as a student project.

 

From the point of view of future students soliciting help, what is most important is that the OP comes back at the end and updates us on what was found.

 

We should also remember that the assessment that a student receives is much more about the quality of the methodology and implementation than in getting a marketable result. Even up to PhD, student qualifications are about gaining skills in research - higher pay grades have to show actual results!

[Allan(nb Albert)]

1 hour ago, Mike Todd said:

I think that the OP has already indicated it is a student project.

Can't find where he said that. 

 

Also the statement in the origional post re open source suggests that it will be of value to others.

 

Perhaps Toppy007 can confirm.

[toppy007]

8 minutes ago, Allan(nb Albert) said:

Can't find where he said that. 

 

Also the statement in the origional post re open source suggests that it will be of value to others.

 

Perhaps Toppy007 can confirm.

Yes sure what would you like to know about the project? Is it a student project? Yes! Do i Have experience in ML algorithms an the application of them? yes! (More in process control, and quality control)

 

Have you read the questionnaires introduction?  do you need more details how ill be creating the prediction model?

Someone had commented that collecting historical date on a boats value against its features at the point of sale was pointless in terms of data, is this what I can help explain? 

 

And yes; I'm more then happy to share the progress of the project with others, and left it up to people at the end of the questionnaire to add an email address if they with to be notified about the projects progression.

 

Would you like to know some instances where such a tool could be useful for the community? 

 

Let me know please and ill address the issues

 

Regards  

 

Chris (I am a boater too)

 

 

[Allan(nb Albert)]

2 hours ago, toppy007 said:

Yes sure what would you like to know about the project? Is it a student project? Yes! Do i Have experience in ML algorithms an the application of them? yes! (More in process control, and quality control)

 

Have you read the questionnaires introduction?  do you need more details how ill be creating the prediction model?

Someone had commented that collecting historical date on a boats value against its features at the point of sale was pointless in terms of data, is this what I can help explain? 

 

And yes; I'm more then happy to share the progress of the project with others, and left it up to people at the end of the questionnaire to add an email address if they with to be notified about the projects progression.

 

Would you like to know some instances where such a tool could be useful for the community? 

 

Let me know please and ill address the issues

 

Regards  

 

Chris (I am a boater too)

 

 

Hi Chris

I will pm you

[MtB]

6 hours ago, Mike Todd said:

For example, it may well be that the name of the boat has a big effect -

 

To illustrate this I know of a boat named "Far Canal".

 

I can imagine this killing any sale stone dead, except to a person who finds it hysterically witty. 

 

 

[toppy007]

27 minutes ago, MtB said:

 

To illustrate this I know of a boat named "Far Canal".

 

I can imagine this killing any sale stone dead, except to a person who finds it hysterically witty. 

 

 

Hmmmm so you are saying that if someone was to use this trained model to value there boat for sale with a contentious name. it would struggle to meet the models predicted market value because of the name not being favorable with the majority of perspective buyers.  Making the model pointless. 

 

You don't consider it may help buyers not judge a book by its cover? and owners could highlight the underlying value when negotiating the sale price?  

 

I'd also like you to remember that ML now has the ability to analyze language tone. so to some extent it's not a million miles away understanding wit to some extent. 

 

 

 

 

[MtB]

42 minutes ago, toppy007 said:

 

You don't consider it may help buyers not judge a book by its cover?

 

Of course I do but what does it have to do with me? I'm not the once considering buying the boat "Far Canal" and at the same time perhaps trying to explain to my wife why the name is so hilarious and how she should not judge a boat by its name....

 

The pojnt is, I don't think there is much mileage in a boat valuation system, other than the intrinsic value of it as a project for its own sake! 

 

 

 

 

[toppy007]

28 minutes ago, MtB said:

 

Of course I do but what does it have to do with me? I'm not the once considering buying the boat "Far Canal" and at the same time perhaps trying to explain to my wife why the name is so hilarious and how she should not judge a boat by its name....

 

The pojnt is, I don't think there is much mileage in a boat valuation system, other than the intrinsic value of it as a project for its own sake! 

 

 

 

 

Ok. Well thank you for taking the time to point out I'm wasting my time, I'm not sure that was ever a question I asked.

[MtB]

3 hours ago, toppy007 said:

Ok. Well thank you for taking the time to point out I'm wasting my time, I'm not sure that was ever a question I asked.

 

 

You're welcome. Glad to have been of assistance.

 

As others have pointed out, you're designing a solution to a non-problem.

 

 

[toppy007]

10 hours ago, MtB said:

 

 

You're welcome. Glad to have been of assistance.

 

As others have pointed out, you're designing a solution to a non-problem.

 

 

OK cool, but I just don't think its necessary to divert the topic in this chat in that way, I've not posted a message for your opinion on if the program will be of commercial value. 

 

I'll be a  MVP(minimal viable product), and I personally think that boat owners could use the program and data to better understand where value can be added or not lost to some optimism-ed levels.

[toppy007]

Some interesting data already from the few people who have contributed 

 

I've made a few more tweaks, everyone who has already submitted the form I'll still be able to use your info. 

 

Once again a big thank you

 

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfa6nIrVYM8PhyEX1qUBbhw0BRmmuN8VsOJ0bDljV_RJZA3yQ/viewform?usp=sf_link

https://forms.gle/Um3oQMR9mgvRDij79

[MtB]

46 minutes ago, toppy007 said:

OK cool, but I just don't think its necessary to divert the topic in this chat in that way, I've not posted a message for your opinion on if the program will be of commercial value. 

 

This is a discussion forum, the whole point of which is to discuss matters to do with boats. 

 

The forum has not been put here as a resource specifically for you and you cannot prevent people expressing opinions about your posts on here. Quite arrogant to even try, in my opinion!