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DHutch

Brexit 2019

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All members.

 

Following the temporary closure of the 2017-18 Brexit thread due to repeated breaching of the forum rules and guidelines, a review has been carried out by the site staff. The outcome of this is that the 2017-18 thread will remain closed, with the creation of this new thread for the 2019 period will be bought forward to replace it.

 

At this point I would like to remind members that all posts within this site must comply with the forum rules and guidelines, which can be found here

 

Specifically with regard to this thread I would like to highlight the following:

 - Canalworld as an online resource is predominately focused on providing a platform the UK inland waterways. 

 - Posts of a primarily political theme are allowed only with prior approval of site staff. This includes this thread.

 - Personal attacks are not permitted in any form. Please debate the topic rather than the person who posted it.

 - If members are breaching the site rules, members should report the content to site staff using the report button.

 

It is the responsibility of each individual member to ensure they keep the topic on track and within the rules.

 

 

Thanks

 

Daniel

 

 

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Theresa May’s mantra should fool no one. While the prime minister insists repeatedly that her Brexit blueprint will mean the UK controlling its borders, laws and money, the real aim of the government is to keep as close as possible to the status quo.

Whitehall, with the Treasury to the fore, was highly pessimistic about Britain’s economic prospects outside the EU and hasn’t changed its mind about the desirability of finessing the softest of all Brexits. Philip Hammond has been able to whistle up plenty of support from employers’ organisations which – unsurprisingly, perhaps – want as little disruption to business as usual as possible.

This pessimism is curious for two reasons. It suggests that the low-wage, low-skill, low-investment economy that existed on the day Britain voted in the June 2016 referendum is as good as it gets. What’s more, the pessimism about the UK is mirrored by an optimism about the health of the EU that is unwavering, despite a plethora of evidence to the contrary.

The unwarranted gloom about the UK and the exaggerated respect for the EU are not new. Many of those who now say that Britain must stay as closely aligned to the EU as possible predicted disaster when the pound left the exchange rate mechanism in 1992; prophesied a decade later that Britain would rue the day that Gordon Brown gave the single currency a wide berth; and said with the utmost confidence in 2016 that a vote for Brexit would lead to an immediate and deep recession and a massive increase in unemployment. None of these things happened.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/respect-eu-britain-outside-left-economy

Edited by Alan de Enfield
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Oh goody ..........a Brexit thread. Thanks anyway as most of us do play nicely. When something happens on how we are to remain I will be posting 😁

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Well if we don't satisfy the Spanish over the Gibraltar border, and the DUP over the Eire border, I can't see anything being agreed.

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1 minute ago, Graham Davis said:

Well if we don't satisfy the Spanish over the Gibraltar border, and the DUP over the Eire border, I can't see anything being agreed.

Bordering on failure ?

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I still think a modified deal will get through, if not its a straight Brexit, I dont think they have the guts to try and stop it.

For me as long as some of the obvious issues are sorted with this deal, I cant honestly see how it can fail, it will in a couple of years have produce what we Brexiteers want, whilst it wont satisfy the remainers for obvious reasons it will have put the issue to bed once and for all. Fingers crossed now 😊

2 minutes ago, Graham Davis said:

Well if we don't satisfy the Spanish over the Gibraltar border, and the DUP over the Eire border, I can't see anything being agreed.

I think the EU will put pressure on the Spanish to wind their necks in, as for the real invented problem of NI I am sure even as we speak tweaks are being made to the deal to ensure it goes through

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13 minutes ago, peterboat said:

I still think a modified deal will get through, if not its a straight Brexit, I dont think they have the guts to try and stop it.

For me as long as some of the obvious issues are sorted with this deal, I cant honestly see how it can fail, it will in a couple of years have produce what we Brexiteers want, whilst it wont satisfy the remainers for obvious reasons it will have put the issue to bed once and for all. Fingers crossed now 😊

I think the EU will put pressure on the Spanish to wind their necks in, as for the real invented problem of NI I am sure even as we speak tweaks are being made to the deal to ensure it goes through

I have no doubt the eu will bring Spain to heel if it needs to, and they will do what they are told, in the end. As for tweaking the Irish backstop, on this I am not so sure. The issue is a non issue, and has been created to prevent the UK from breaking free, the last thing the eu actually want to see. So on this I think the eu will stand firm, certainly upto the deadline.

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3 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Theresa May’s mantra should fool no one. While the prime minister insists repeatedly that her Brexit blueprint will mean the UK controlling its borders, laws and money, the real aim of the government is to keep as close as possible to the status quo.

Whitehall, with the Treasury to the fore, was highly pessimistic about Britain’s economic prospects outside the EU and hasn’t changed its mind about the desirability of finessing the softest of all Brexits. Philip Hammond has been able to whistle up plenty of support from employers’ organisations which – unsurprisingly, perhaps – want as little disruption to business as usual as possible.

This pessimism is curious for two reasons. It suggests that the low-wage, low-skill, low-investment economy that existed on the day Britain voted in the June 2016 referendum is as good as it gets. What’s more, the pessimism about the UK is mirrored by an optimism about the health of the EU that is unwavering, despite a plethora of evidence to the contrary.

The unwarranted gloom about the UK and the exaggerated respect for the EU are not new. Many of those who now say that Britain must stay as closely aligned to the EU as possible predicted disaster when the pound left the exchange rate mechanism in 1992; prophesied a decade later that Britain would rue the day that Gordon Brown gave the single currency a wide berth; and said with the utmost confidence in 2016 that a vote for Brexit would lead to an immediate and deep recession and a massive increase in unemployment. None of these things happened.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/22/respect-eu-britain-outside-left-economy

Oddly enough this must be a load of old rubbish if the view of Mrs Smelly & Peterboat (who has bizarrely given it a greenie) is correct, since it came from The Guardian, so by definition must be utterly wrong, mustn't it?:unsure:

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Important to bear in mind that the only one nation that has a definite veto on the deal is UK. The EU 27 will accept or reject the deal on qualified majority voting. It's not just Spain either, the French want access to UK waters for their fishermen.

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15 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

Important to bear in mind that the only one nation that has a definite veto on the deal is UK. The EU 27 will accept or reject the deal on qualified majority voting. It's not just Spain either, the French want access to UK waters for their fishermen.

This is indeed true, however should the deal be agreed and implemented, at that point we hand the veto power to the eu.

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41 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

Important to bear in mind that the only one nation that has a definite veto on the deal is UK. The EU 27 will accept or reject the deal on qualified majority voting. It's not just Spain either, the French want access to UK waters for their fishermen.

And the UK fishermen need access to the EU market so it's a double edged sword. I have been at both Plymouth ferryport and also in Scotland and seen just how much of their catch is sold on the continent, if tariffs are imposed on Scottish Langoustines they may as well not bother to catch them since virtually no-one in the UK buys them.

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22 minutes ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

And the UK fishermen need access to the EU market so it's a double edged sword. I have been at both Plymouth ferryport and also in Scotland and seen just how much of their catch is sold on the continent, if tariffs are imposed on Scottish Langoustines they may as well not bother to catch them since virtually no-one in the UK buys them.

And presuming they did this we could apply an equally punitive tariff to their smelly cheeses, and already overpriced wines, although I accept this is unlikely, as our leaders kowtow to the eu in every respect. Just out of curiosity, what is the trade differential between Scottish Langoustines and French Cheese.

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I see that ex (replacement) Brexit Secretary Dominic Raaab has said today that the deal (he helped to create) is worse than staying in the EU 😂

 

Did he really think that the EU were going to give us better terms than if we'd just stayed in? 🤔

 

This is the calibre of the people in Theresa May's Brexit negotiating team! Bunch of clowns.

Edited by blackrose

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We're still hoping to get our blue passports back, that won't say european community on the front, or inside.

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6 hours ago, DHutch said:

- Posts of a primarily political theme are allowed only with prior approval of site staff. This includes this thread.

 

Is this one of the site rules that only apply on alternate wet Tuesdays when there is a full moon? Or can we rely on deletion of ANY political thread not previously approved by a mod?

 

I have this really weird sinking feeling that 'prior approval' will be granted retrospectively on any political threads I might report. Can you assure The Membership this will not happen please Dan?

 

 

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14 minutes ago, jeanb said:

We're still hoping to get our blue passports back, that won't say european community on the front, or inside.

Yes, this clearly is the most important issue in all this debate! 😧

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2 hours ago, Phil. said:

And presuming they did this we could apply an equally punitive tariff to their smelly cheeses, and already overpriced wines, although I accept this is unlikely, as our leaders kowtow to the eu in every respect. Just out of curiosity, what is the trade differential between Scottish Langoustines and French Cheese.

I thought under wto rules we had to apply the same duties to every country?

2 hours ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

And the UK fishermen need access to the EU market so it's a double edged sword. I have been at both Plymouth ferryport and also in Scotland and seen just how much of their catch is sold on the continent, if tariffs are imposed on Scottish Langoustines they may as well not bother to catch them since virtually no-one in the UK buys them.

I realise that just like loss of our freedom to travel this is not an important issue and unlikely to undermine brexit but can someone explain the fishy arguments to me in simple terms why are the foreigners allowed to fish in our waters what do we get in return and is it worth it, I suspect one part of our fishing industry benefits and the other half doesnt and is angry, just like the immigration argument but have seen very little factual information. A link to an authoritative article would be nice.

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15 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

 

I have this really weird sinking feeling that 'prior approval' will be granted retrospectively on any political threads I might report. Can you assure The Membership this will not happen please Dan?

 

 

perhaps the mods should vet all posts before they are put on air as it is difficult for us mere mortals to make sense of them or how a brexit thread can avoid being political and then there would be no need to lock or exterminate any threads.

 

Edited by Phoenix_V

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I still believe all of May's efforts to sell this 'deal' are a hoax. She knows that however hard she tries the deal won't pass through parliament. A combination of hard line Tory Brexiteers, Labour m.p.s smelling a general election, the royally peed off DUP, Liberal Democrats, and SNP members who would automatically vote against anything proposed by the powers that be in Westminster means the deal is dead in the water, despite all her efforts. She knows this, but continues with her grand performance.

 

When the deal is rejected Britain should then leave the EU without a trade deal. Article 50 has been served, it's the law. Apparently though, there isn't a majority in parliament to support this. I wasn't aware that a majority in parliament was needed in order to enforce an existing law, but there you go. Anyway, given that the law (article 50) will apparently be rescinded, effectively nullifying the result of the referendum the government will be left with 2 choices. It could call a general election or a second referendum. You can't really imagine any scenario where the government might choose a general election so a second referendum it will be.

 

The ground has already been prepared. Rather than being called a second referendum or a re run of the referendum great campaigns are underway for an apparently democratic 'people's vote'. Who knows, the EU, may offer some 'softeners' in order that Britain produces the 'right' result this time.  

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4 minutes ago, Gareth E said:

Rather than being called a second referendum

 

'Scuse me, but the second referendum on BREXIT was held on 23rd June 2016. 

 

The first was on 5th June 1975, and ever since then the Brexiteers have been picking away at it like a sore scab wanting a second referendum seeking to over turn the result of the first. (67% Yes, 33% No.) 

 

Since achieving their goal of a second referendum reversing the first after 41 years of campaigning for it, they are oddly opposed on principle to a third referendum. Funny that. 

 

 

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Just now, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

'Scuse me, but the second referendum on BREXIT was held on 23rd June 2016. 

 

The first was on 5th June 1975, and ever since then the Brexiteers have been picking away at it like a sore scab wanting a second referendum seeking to over turn the result of the first. (67% Yes, 33% No.) 

 

Since achieving their goal of a second referendum reversing the first after 41 years of campaigning for it, they are oddly opposed on principle to a third referendum. Funny that. 

 

 

That was a referendum to remain or leave the Common Market later EEC then EC then EU. The Common Market was a simple trading tariff free arrangement between a small number of nations. The EU is a political union with aspirations of federation between a much larger number of nations. It's like comparing chalk and cheese. 

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18 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

'Scuse me, but the second referendum on BREXIT was held on 23rd June 2016. 

 

The first was on 5th June 1975, and ever since then the Brexiteers have been picking away at it like a sore scab wanting a second referendum seeking to over turn the result of the first. (67% Yes, 33% No.) 

 

Since achieving their goal of a second referendum reversing the first after 41 years of campaigning for it, they are oddly opposed on principle to a third referendum. Funny that. 

 

 

Everyone has a right to try and get what they think is best be that Remain or Leave.

 

There was an earlier referendum as you say but the difference about a notion of the 3rd is that the last one has not been implemented yet where as the 2nd referendum was after the 1st was actioned.

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Another thing about the '75 referendum: although it was 'leave' or 'remain' on the paper the feeling at the time was it was to ratify (or not) the government of the time's decision to join the Common Market, as they decided to do it without consulting the electorate. 

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Something I'd like to throw into the mix here: it's pretty obvious that Labour, overall, are angling for remain. Many believe that Corbyn would prefer Brexit but the party is a democracy, I think what I said holds true.

 

Given that their plans to return businesses to state ownership are illegal under EU law, why would they want to be in a club that prevents them carrying out the changes they wish?

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