End of winter?

[tree monkey]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

Monday morning lie in

top the stove up and scrape the ice off the inside of the windows day

Ok thanks for that, although I am no clearer as to how likely this is to happen, they do seem very excited

So the question is how likely is this cold spell to happen and how cold?

Yes I know this is a impossible ask but in your far more expert than mine

[Dr Bob]

17 minutes ago, tree monkey said:

Ok thanks for that, although I am no clearer as to how likely this is to happen, they do seem very excited

So the question is how likely is this cold spell to happen and how cold?

Yes I know this is a impossible ask but in your far more expert than mine

I would say 50/50 whether we get daily highs less than zero each day but 100% that we have frosts each night, at least -5°C ish, and day temps of less than 2-3°C during the spell which will last at least a week.

[tree monkey]

7 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

I would say 50/50 whether we get daily highs less than zero each day but 100% that we have frosts each night, at least -5°C ish, and day temps of less than 2-3°C during the spell which will last at least a week.

Thank you, Funnily enough I have Monday and Tuesday off next week, so if its stupid cold I can stoke the fire and go back to bed

[Stilllearning]

Glad that we are ordering a delivery of logs for Friday. Lots of lovely dry oak and hornbeam. But then of course, the forecast could easily be wrong!

[tree monkey]

19 minutes ago, Stilllearning said:

Glad that we are ordering a delivery of logs for Friday. Lots of lovely dry oak and hornbeam. But then of course, the forecast could easily be wrong!

Never burnt hornbeam,  is it any good?

[Mac of Cygnet]

1 hour ago, tree monkey said:

Never burnt hornbeam,  is it any good?

Closely related to beech, as you certainly know already.  We have a hornbeam right by the house, and the few odd branches I've had off it seem similar.  Beautiful bright yellow in Autumn.

[mrsmelly]

3 hours ago, tree monkey said:

Ok thanks for that, although I am no clearer as to how likely this is to happen, they do seem very excited

So the question is how likely is this cold spell to happen and how cold?

Yes I know this is a impossible ask but in your far more expert than mine

Whatever happens it will b fine and sunny by the second of march.

[BruceinSanity]

4 hours ago, Dr Bob said:

Yep, that's the forum I look at each day. Quite depressing as all the posters there are looking for cold and snow. I guess it is just the extremes that wind their clocks. I dont know why they dont all move up to the Grampians.

This is why I gave up following MetMonkey. They seemed to think the prospect of severe gales was good news, which I suppose it was to them. I just stick with the dear old Met Office these days and try not to think about anything more than five days ahead.

[Dr Bob]

14 minutes ago, BruceinSanity said:

This is why I gave up following MetMonkey. They seemed to think the prospect of severe gales was good news, which I suppose it was to them. I just stick with the dear old Met Office these days and try not to think about anything more than five days ahead.

Your right about the 5 days. This coming event seems a bit more predictable than normal although hopefully they all have it wrong and Mrsmelly can get going on the 2nd, and we can get out as well. I am not holding my breath though.

[Stilllearning]

17 hours ago, tree monkey said:

Never burnt hornbeam,  is it any good?

It is very good, we are lucky here to have extensive oak, hornbeam and sweet chestnut woodland, much of it actively coppiced.

Somewhere in my bookshelves I thought there was a Forestry Commission publication with a list of hardwoods and their calorific values, but I cannot find it  .

As far as I can remember, hornbeam came out top, with oak just below it.

I thought it would be in my “Silviculture of broadleaf woodlands” FC bulletin number 62 book, but after much searching, can’t find it.

[Dr Bob]

15 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

Whatever happens it will b fine and sunny by the second of march.

You may well be right, but with 3ft of ice! Just looked at all the models again. The 4 main ones, ECM, GEM, GFS and UKMO are all now alligned (they weren't yesterday) saying it is going to be brass monkeys from next Sunday for at least a week and maybe two. They are all predicting daytime highs below freezing.

How likely is it that this will happen (Tree Monkey asked yesterday)? It is interesting all the models are now alligned which is something that almost NEVER happens ie one or more are always predicting something different from 3-5 days out. This time they are all in agreement. Does that mean sub zero temps all day is nailed on? I dont think it is. The SSW event that has just happened (SSW = Summer Starts a week Wednesday) is a very rare occurance and it is unlikley the models have sufficient data on these type of events to model the future properly. It may well be that all the models are treating the data the same way and so predicting the very cold wether the same whereas they all may be manipulating the data wrong. Predicting the weather more than 5 days out is not easy (and that means past this weekend).

I think it is still 100% it is going to be very cold with deep overnight frosts and daytime temps not getting above 2-3°C (from next monday to saturday) but still only 50/50 that it will be below freezing all day, so no change since yesterday. The thing the models are disagreeing on is the amount of snow we will see. Some are showing a foot or more in eastern counties on Tues/Wed, others none. That is also interesting as the daytime high temps will be significantly affected if there is lying snow. Some parts of the UK could get very very cold.

Which ever way it goes, I think our marina (in the midlands) is going to be iced up for a week so not much chance of Mrsmelly getting out next Friday/Saturday. I think we will know a lot more by Thursday this week. It may well be bright and sunny though!

[mrsmelly]

9 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

You may well be right, but with 3ft of ice! Just looked at all the models again. The 4 main ones, ECM, GEM, GFS and UKMO are all now alligned (they weren't yesterday) saying it is going to be brass monkeys from next Sunday for at least a week and maybe two. They are all predicting daytime highs below freezing.

How likely is it that this will happen (Tree Monkey asked yesterday)? It is interesting all the models are now alligned which is something that almost NEVER happens ie one or more are always predicting something different from 3-5 days out. This time they are all in agreement. Does that mean sub zero temps all day is nailed on? I dont think it is. The SSW event that has just happened (SSW = Summer Starts a week Wednesday) is a very rare occurance and it is unlikley the models have sufficient data on these type of events to model the future properly. It may well be that all the models are treating the data the same way and so predicting the very cold wether the same whereas they all may be manipulating the data wrong. Predicting the weather more than 5 days out is not easy (and that means past this weekend).

I think it is still 100% it is going to be very cold with deep overnight frosts and daytime temps not getting above 2-3°C (from next monday to saturday) but still only 50/50 that it will be below freezing all day, so no change since yesterday. The thing the models are disagreeing on is the amount of snow we will see. Some are showing a foot or more in eastern counties on Tues/Wed, others none. That is also interesting as the daytime high temps will be significantly affected if there is lying snow. Some parts of the UK could get very very cold.

Which ever way it goes, I think our marina (in the midlands) is going to be iced up for a week so not much chance of Mrsmelly getting out next Friday/Saturday. I think we will know a lot more by Thursday this week. It may well be bright and sunny though!

That was a very long post Bob...........Ive shortened it for you just read my signature 

[Dr Bob]

1 minute ago, mrsmelly said:

That was a very long post Bob...........Ive shortened it for you just read my signature 

...com'on, you must know me by now. Never say anyting in 20 words when I can say it in 220.

...it is boring holed up in a marina!

[mrsmelly]

9 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

...com'on, you must know me by now. Never say anyting in 20 words when I can say it in 220.

...it is boring holed up in a marina!

you are damned right its boring. Fantastic cruising day today apart from the wind so I wouldn't be moving today anyway. Just washing some extra T shirts ready for the off next weekend 

[Dave_P]

17 hours ago, Mac of Cygnet said:

Closely related to beech, as you certainly know already.  We have a hornbeam right by the house, and the few odd branches I've had off it seem similar.  Beautiful bright yellow in Autumn.

Although hornbeam leaves look like beech (and are often mistaken), they're actually more closely related to birch (look at the buds and leaf arrangement and you'll see it).

[Mac of Cygnet]

2 hours ago, Dave_P said:

Although hornbeam leaves look like beech (and are often mistaken), they're actually more closely related to birch (look at the buds and leaf arrangement and you'll see it).

Actually we're both wrong. I just looked it up and hornbeam is in neither the birch nor the beech family, but is in the Corylaceae, or hazel family.  Well, I learn something every day, even about (what used to be) sort of my own subject.  I bet Tree Monkey knew this, though.

Edited to say that those bloody taxonomists have moved it since my Flora was published!  Now lumped in with birch, as you say.  Hm........

Edited February 20, 2018 by Mac of Cygnet

[tree monkey]

16 minutes ago, Mac of Cygnet said:

Actually we're both wrong. I just looked it up and hornbeam is in neither the birch nor the beech family, but is in the Corylaceae, or hazel family.  Well, I learn something every day, even about (what used to be) sort of my own subject.  I bet Tree Monkey knew this, though.

Edited to say that those bloody taxonomists have moved it since my Flora was published!  Now lumped in with birch, as you say.  Hm........

I might have

Tbh I didn't notice the comment in the reply to my question as I should have been doing my paid job actually looking at trees, I agree about the taxonomists though.

[Dave_P]

2 hours ago, Mac of Cygnet said:

Actually we're both wrong. I just looked it up and hornbeam is in neither the birch nor the beech family, but is in the Corylaceae, or hazel family.  Well, I learn something every day, even about (what used to be) sort of my own subject.  I bet Tree Monkey knew this, though.

 

I'm not wrong.  I don't know where you looked that up but there is no longer such a thing as the Corylaceae family.  Hazel, Hornbeam, and Birch are all in the Birch family Betulaceae.  Beech (Fagus Sylvatica) is in the Fagaceae family.

Tree Monkey knows a bit about trees I'll admit, but as a former National Trust head gardener, Horticultural Advisor to Europe's largest Organic growing charity, Horticultural college tutor, City & Guilds horticultural examiner and exam question setter and researcher for BBC Gardening output, I know a thing or two myself.

[Mac of Cygnet]

19 minutes ago, Dave_P said:

I'm not wrong.  I don't know where you looked that up but there is no longer such a thing as the Corylaceae family.  Hazel, Hornbeam, and Birch are all in the Birch family Betulaceae.  Beech (Fagus Sylvatica) is in the Fagaceae family.

Tree Monkey knows a bit about trees I'll admit, but as a former National Trust head gardener, Horticultural Advisor to Europe's largest Organic growing charity, Horticultural college tutor, City & Guilds horticultural examiner and exam question setter and researcher for BBC Gardening output, I know a thing or two myself.

Look at my edit.  I used what used to be the standard British Flora before my former lecturer Clive Stace came along and wrote a new one!  Tree Monkey and I seem to share a certain cynicism about the shifting sands of taxonomy - it'll all change again in another 50 years! 

[MtB]

2 minutes ago, Mac of Cygnet said:

Look at my edit.  I used what used to be the standard British Flora before my former lecturer Clive Stace came along and wrote a new one!  Tree Monkey and I seem to share a certain cynicism about the shifting sands of taxonomy - it'll all change again in another 50 years! 

 

Stuff taxonomy, that's what I say....

[mrsmelly]

13 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

Stuff taxonomy, that's what I say....

I am pleased to say I had to google Taxonomy to see what it meant. Sometimes in life its better to not know bout such things. 

[Dr Bob]

21 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

Stuff taxonomy, that's what I say....

Yes, that's what I say, but what are those green thinks that appear at the end of branches in the spring called?

[tree monkey]

1 hour ago, Dave_P said:

I'm not wrong.  I don't know where you looked that up but there is no longer such a thing as the Corylaceae family.  Hazel, Hornbeam, and Birch are all in the Birch family Betulaceae.  Beech (Fagus Sylvatica) is in the Fagaceae family.

Tree Monkey knows a bit about trees I'll admit, but as a former National Trust head gardener, Horticultural Advisor to Europe's largest Organic growing charity, Horticultural college tutor, City & Guilds horticultural examiner and exam question setter and researcher for BBC Gardening output, I know a thing or two myself.

Shall we just admit that those sneaky taxonomists are out to cause arguments between sensible people and we shouldn't knowingly buy one a beer if ever we should meet on in a pub?

I still call Kretzschmaria, ustulina, they owe me many many pints for that

[Sir Nibble]

Ne're cast a clout 'till May is out.

[tree monkey]

1 hour ago, Mac of Cygnet said:

Look at my edit.  I used what used to be the standard British Flora before my former lecturer Clive Stace came along and wrote a new one!  Tree Monkey and I seem to share a certain cynicism about the shifting sands of taxonomy - it'll all change again in another 50 years! 

And I completely missed the reference to Mr Stace, wow I am impressed