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Brexit 2017

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20 minutes ago, Jerra said:

As I said recently in this thread the Brexit supporter who blew the whistle on the leave overspend spelled out that amount of money could have "bought" the result.

 

I dislike criminality and unfairness so I am likely to moan about the result possibly being because of criminality and certainly tainted by the red bus lie.

 

I know dyed in the wool Brexiteers who don't mind who suffers or how much, will try to make light of this criminality etc.  Fair enough but don't expect people to accept criminality which may have skewed the result without moaning.

You are entitled to moan as much as you like but do scrutinise and think about what is being said rather than accept it outright.

 

just how could a £450K overspend on a 7 million budget have "bought" the result or made enough people vote in a specific way?

 

The Electoral Commission who have fined the leave campaign said  "It is impossible to say how overspending by the Vote Leave campaign affected the referendum result."

that is not to say it did not have an influence but it is also possible it did not. Personally I think they broke the rules that much is clear but it is far from clear and and any doubt not enough to besmirch the result.

 

The red bus "lie" as you put it has nothing to do with the Electoral Commission ruling anymore than the Osbourne each household will be worse off by £4300 per year statement prior to the vote on the remain side. It was a disappointing campaign by both sides and much to moan about from either camp.

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4 minutes ago, churchward said:

just how could a £450K overspend on a 7 million budget have "bought" the result or made enough people vote in a specific way?

I am no expert in marketing.  He was, he went into how many exposures and how long it would buy in say a TV campaign and quoted figures from similar spends and success rate and it seemed to stack up very well.

 

EDIT:  Remember he was pro Brexit.

Edited by Jerra

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2 hours ago, Jerra said:

I am no expert in marketing.  He was, he went into how many exposures and how long it would buy in say a TV campaign and quoted figures from similar spends and success rate and it seemed to stack up very well.

 

EDIT:  Remember he was pro Brexit.

One would assume that he, and his ilk, would have been fully aware of how successful the money spent on the red bus was, possibly on a day to day basis, and possibly in terms of the number of votes gained. Given that the bus was pretty much everywhere, perhaps the central feature of the campaign, I think we can be pretty sure that it was money well spent.

 

This, notwithstanding those here who express disbelief that anybody could be so stupid as to believe what is written on the side of a big red bus :(

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5 hours ago, Richard10002 said:

One would assume that he, and his ilk, would have been fully aware of how successful the money spent on the red bus was, possibly on a day to day basis, and possibly in terms of the number of votes gained. Given that the bus was pretty much everywhere, perhaps the central feature of the campaign, I think we can be pretty sure that it was money well spent.

 

This, notwithstanding those here who express disbelief that anybody could be so stupid as to believe what is written on the side of a big red bus :(

What's to believe? Let's all go to mars today. There you go, if we aren't all on mars by tonight, that was a lie.

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9 hours ago, churchward said:

It has never gone away this is not a rise of extreme right wing politics. What we are seeing now is not new but as you say people feeling more able to come out with their bile.  It does not have much if anything to do with Brexit or the activities in Parliament to achieve Brexit which is what was being discussed.

 

Personally, I think in many ways it is good that people are out there exposing their views as it is better to see the enemy than have it hidden underground. A problem exposed is easier to deal with and opinions countered. 

We will have to differ on this since it is a rise of extreme right wing politics, the difference now compared to recent years is that it is internationalised, which is much the same as occurred in the 1930's with Mussolini,Franco,Hitler and others all achieving power through populist policies. The speakers at the Tommy Robinson/Stephen Yaxley Lennon 'protest' came from a number of countries with a big input from the US. The 'opinions' cannot be countered by any rational argument since it isn't based upon any. One of the women interviewed insisted that all Muslims have sex with children which is about as rational as saying that all Englishmen are football hooligans. When you get a group such as this feeding their own prejudices, outside evidence will count for nothing.

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17 hours ago, churchward said:

who knows could fall further but to say it is suffering is a bit wild and the media reports a bit sensational just now.

 

The USD exchange is a little worse and more significant as a lot of product like oil is traded in USD.  Even so the last 90 days have seen a high of 1.40 USD and a low of 1.30 to GBP.  Its been tracking around the mid 1.30s USD almost since the Brexit referendum result.

A fact. In March this year I bought a car from the US at a rate of  $1.4044  I have another I`ve just paid for a week ago at a rate of $1.3145 and my quoted rate just now to pay duties etc. is $1.2933. So you can workout the % extra cost to me of importing the two cars or conversely how much cheaper the US citizen or for that matter anyone else dealing in $ could buy our exports. Not as you put it sensational but an  astute exporter would be aware of and "doing deals". That is my point and an example of opportunities that businesses can look at. Incidentally I bought my first from the US  at over $2 to the £ in the early part of this century. A bargain.

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1 hour ago, jddevel said:

A fact. In March this year I bought a car from the US at a rate of  $1.4044  I have another I`ve just paid for a week ago at a rate of $1.3145 and my quoted rate just now to pay duties etc. is $1.2933. So you can workout the % extra cost to me of importing the two cars or conversely how much cheaper the US citizen or for that matter anyone else dealing in $ could buy our exports. Not as you put it sensational but an  astute exporter would be aware of and "doing deals". That is my point and an example of opportunities that businesses can look at. Incidentally I bought my first from the US  at over $2 to the £ in the early part of this century. A bargain.

Firstly, I did not say the exchange rate comments were sensationalist (that was reserved for the comments about comparing now with 1930s europe) and secondly I was responding to your post about the Euro but added in a comment about the USD rate.

 

Of course one can take advantage of a spot rate at a particular moment. However, one cannot escape the recorded facts that the rate has averaged for GBP V USD this year and pretty much since Brexit in the mid $1.30's USD.  It has previously been very high compared to the present rate and I bought quite a lot of US model railway stuff at that time and it was a good deal.

 

However, it is not true to think in only a high value GBP/Sterling rate being a good thing.  It's great if you are buying and importing but not so good if you are exporting.  Many were saying that Sterling was far to high for the economy prior to Brexit vote and it certainly dropped post the vote. There are always winners and losers when exchange rates vary.

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1 hour ago, jddevel said:

That is my point and an example of opportunities that businesses can look at

Opportunities for the few (especially if their morals are somewhat flexible) and elimination of opportunities for the many. That's the way the Right, led by non-domiciled press barons, is taking us.

 

I think we British can do better than that, and I also think that most of us want to. 

3 minutes ago, churchward said:

There are always winners and losers when exchange rates vary.

Perhaps that's an argument for our being in the EU and using the euro?

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10 hours ago, Jerra said:

I am no expert in marketing.  He was, he went into how many exposures and how long it would buy in say a TV campaign and quoted figures from similar spends and success rate and it seemed to stack up very well.

 

EDIT:  Remember he was pro Brexit.

WAS.  Just about sums it up.  "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned".

 

George

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1 hour ago, Wanderer Vagabond said:

We will have to differ on this since it is a rise of extreme right wing politics, the difference now compared to recent years is that it is internationalised, which is much the same as occurred in the 1930's with Mussolini,Franco,Hitler and others all achieving power through populist policies. The speakers at the Tommy Robinson/Stephen Yaxley Lennon 'protest' came from a number of countries with a big input from the US. The 'opinions' cannot be countered by any rational argument since it isn't based upon any. One of the women interviewed insisted that all Muslims have sex with children which is about as rational as saying that all Englishmen are football hooligans. When you get a group such as this feeding their own prejudices, outside evidence will count for nothing.

Yes we will because it isn't a rise of extreme right wing politics.  What we are seeing is a swing to further right politics mostly in Europe and some extreme groups coming out of the woodwork that have always been lurking.  Not everyone who is not left of centre is a right wing extremist. It is not the same as the 1930s and is not universal across Europe. Neither Netherlands or France voted for more right wing politics in recent elections. One could argue that in the UK we have seen mostly an opposite trend and a move to more left wing politics.

 

It is important though to counter in all kinds of ways the extremes of of views that threaten freedom and integration.  However, describing a set of people as irrational and beyond outside influence is a little dangerous as the argument becomes open to an extreme response to what is to be done with them as they cannot be reasoned with.

 

 

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11 hours ago, Jerra said:

As I said recently in this thread the Brexit supporter who blew the whistle on the leave overspend spelled out that amount of money could have "bought" the result.

 

I dislike criminality and unfairness so I am likely to moan about the result possibly being because of criminality and certainly tainted by the red bus lie.

 

I know dyed in the wool Brexiteers who don't mind who suffers or how much, will try to make light of this criminality etc.  Fair enough but don't expect people to accept criminality which may have skewed the result without moaning.

Having looked at the views of the individual members of the electoral commission with regard to Brexit, coupled with their refusal to investigate similar allegations against the remain side, I question their impartiality.

 

Add in the fact that our government spent many millions on pro remain publicity and permitted civil service time to be spent on pro remain issues but denied that access to the leave side and I smell a great deal of hypocrisy in the air!

 

George

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30 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

Perhaps that's an argument for our being in the EU and using the euro?

A homogenised currency can be an advantage but less so when the participants have a wide range of economic factors and levels of wealth.  If the UK was to join the Euro it would help strengthen it due to the weight of the UK economy for sure but it would also generate a different set of winners and losers in the UK.  It just depends on where you stand and what one may gain or lose. Personally it would not have been an issue for me if the UK had joined the Euro.  Mind you I well remember when Ireland joined, folk I knew out there were quite keen before hand but less so after when they had up to a 20% rise in prices seemingly as a result. However people have forgotten all that now and have got used to the Euro and the economy there has also adjusted.

 

The point is though the absolute value of the currency is not important, the economy adjusts over time to the circumstance. 

Edited by churchward

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4 hours ago, Sir Nibble said:

What's to believe? Let's all go to mars today. There you go, if we aren't all on mars by tonight, that was a lie.

and that's all you've got?

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1 hour ago, furnessvale said:

Having looked at the views of the individual members of the electoral commission with regard to Brexit, coupled with their refusal to investigate similar allegations against the remain side, I question their impartiality.

 

Add in the fact that our government spent many millions on pro remain publicity and permitted civil service time to be spent on pro remain issues but denied that access to the leave side and I smell a great deal of hypocrisy in the air!

 

George

Erm -- it was Tory party policy at the time to remain in the EU.

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20 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

Erm -- it was Tory party policy at the time to remain in the EU.

Erm....so what?  Tory party policy and the government spending MY cash on propaganda should be separate matters.

 

Given that it is now the policy of both major parties to respect the vote and LEAVE the EU, I trust remainers will have no objection, in any rerun of the referendum, to the government spending the EXTRA cash supporting the leave campaign.

 

George

Edited by furnessvale
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7 hours ago, Sir Nibble said:

What's to believe? Let's all go to mars today. There you go, if we aren't all on mars by tonight, that was a lie.

I don't quite buy that one. Perhaps "I promise we will all be on Mars by tonight" is a lie. Nonetheless I see the point you are making. 

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