(Yet) Another Trent Question

[RLWP]

As it happens Im not.

 

No fool at all.

 

That rather depends where you are standing. I know what my opinion is

 

Richard

[Naughty Cal]

Yes, same sort of variations John, and the amount of fresh in the river also has an effect on both height and timings.To some extent it is possible to anticipate the variations by taking into account wind strength and direction, and pressure on the day and relating it back to the effects it has had on predictions for the previous few days.

Please show us how?

 

That rather depends where you are standing. I know what my opinion is

 

Richard

I know what mine is as well.

 

Im in pocket, have got plenty of spare beer tokens for our trip up the Trent in a week or so and ........, well you will just have to wait and see what the and is...........

[RLWP]

 

I know what mine is as well.

 

Im in pocket, have got plenty of spare beer tokens for our trip up the Trent in a week or so and ........, well you will just have to wait and see what the and is...........

 

I'm not sure of the relevance of that to the matter in hand, however have a good trip Rachel, lots of photos please

 

Richard

[Naughty Cal]

 

I'm not sure of the relevance of that to the matter in hand, however have a good trip Rachel, lots of photos please

 

Richard

Oh there will be lots of photos alright. Just you wait and see. There will be some smashing shots for the holiday album.

[John V]

Please show us how?

 

With comments like that Rachael you display your ignorance

In the Thames estuary if we have a strong easterly the tide will be late and low, with a strong westerly the tide will early and over prediction with a delayed ebb......etc etc. complicated by barometric pressure, not just over the estuary but over the North Sea...and so on

[Naughty Cal]

 

With comments like that Rachael you display your ignorance

In the Thames estuary if we have a strong easterly the tide will be late and low, with a strong westerly the tide will early and over prediction with a delayed ebb......etc etc. complicated by barometric pressure, not just over the estuary but over the North Sea...and so on

I know they can be affect by other factors.

 

Im interested in Tony's technique for predicting this.

[Tony Dunkley]

 

We have been trying to relate it back to weather conditions or the like for years without much success, sometimes you can, but other times there seems to be no rhyme or reason.

A couple of guys down here reckon that if you get a particularly low tide during the day that you get a correspondingly high one that night (never found that convincing)

I wonder if the reason you can co-relate things is due to the way the Trent / Humber estuary is shaped where the Thames is wider and we get more effects from the sea.(the amount of fresh in the river here at the estuary makes very little difference)

 

Yes, I would think that's very probably the reason for the difference. In the confines of the Humber, Trent and Ouse the wind direction and strength must affect things differently from an expanse of water like the Thames Estuary. I think I've read, or heard, somewhere that the Humber drains away about one fifth off the run off from the whole country. The effect of fresh on water levels is minimal at the lower ends of the Trent and Ouse, and in the Humber, but increases very much further up both rivers.

Edited September 26, 2014 by tony dunkley

[Victor Vectis]

Indeed so, if I'd been Mr Vectis, I would have been well pleased. I'm not sure ( but might be wrong) but I think he's still to thank Tony for the accurate answer to his question though one can hardly blame him for being bemused by the crap dumped on this thread by Rachel.

Yes, thank you, and Tony, for that.

 

(On all counts)

 

SAM

 

Now moored in Newark.

 

That rather depends where you are standing. I know what my opinion is

 

Richard

Hello Richard!

 

See you at Buckby?

Edited September 26, 2014 by Victor Vectis

[Naughty Cal]

I know they can be affect by other factors.

 

Im interested in Tony's technique for predicting this.

So how do you predict it Tony?

 

No answer yet. You were so sure you could earlier. Please explain to a wider audience how you manage this prediction.

 

Even the experts will be interested I'm sure. After all they have struggled for many years to understand the idiocy of tidal inaccuracies. Yet your old brain claims to know how to predict them. You could be onto a money spinner there old chap.

[John V]

Oh.........

[gary955]

I've rushed over to this thread fully expecting Phylis to be shown to be a scoundrel and a filthy bet welsher! Nobody would enjoy that more than me.

Unfortunatly she's right. She won her bet, although it was a close run thing i think it's fair to define "arrived" as being safetly tied up and she owes not one penny.

I wonder how many of us would pay out on such a substantial bet so flippantly made if we'd lost. Not many I'd wager.

Would Phylis have paid out if she'd lost? I've really no idea, but for some reason her final sentence of post#44 where she acknowleges that the bet is on but says "stay safe" makes me wonder if perhaps she might have.

[Naughty Cal]

I've rushed over to this thread fully expecting Phylis to be shown to be a scoundrel and a filthy bet welsher! Nobody would enjoy that more than me.

Unfortunatly she's right. She won her bet, although it was a close run thing i think it's fair to define "arrived" as being safetly tied up and she owes not one penny.

I wonder how many of us would pay out on such a substantial bet so flippantly made if we'd lost. Not many I'd wager.

Would Phylis have paid out if she'd lost? I've really no idea, but for some reason her final sentence of post#44 where she acknowleges that the bet is on but says "stay safe" makes me wonder if perhaps she might have.

Of course I would have paid out!

[Guest]

I've rushed over to this thread fully expecting Phylis to be shown to be a scoundrel and a filthy bet welsher! Nobody would enjoy that more than me..

I'm curious as to why somebody would say such I thing, is it because you have had some disagreement with her previously or are you just jumping on some sort of bandwagon?

[Naughty Cal]

I think Dave summed it up in the locked topic

 

"Synopsis of the thread;

Tony stated that a particular journey on the Trent, starting at 06:30 could be done by 10:00 or 10:15 at the outside. That is to say 3.5 hours, or at most 3.75 hours.

NC challenged that timing, and bet a month's wages that they would not arrive by 10am.

She also offered an estimate of 11:30 to noon of her own.

As it is, the boat set off 1 minute early at 06:29 and arrived at 10:18.

There appears to be some dissention as to what constitutes arrival time for the bet, but it isn't actually material, because NC didn't bet that Tony was wrong in his estimate, but that the boat would not arrive by 10am.

So;

Tony said 3.5 to 3.75

NC said 5.0 to 5.5

NC offered a wager on achieving 3.5

Actual was 3.82

Conclusions;

Tony's time estimate was better than NC's

The boat may or may not have "arrived" withing Tony's window.

The bet was NOT, however, on arriving within the window, but on achieving 3.5 hours, and that was NOT achieved"

Edited October 24, 2014 by Naughty Cal

[gary955]

I'm curious as to why somebody would say such I thing, is it because you have had some disagreement with her previously or are you just jumping on some sort of bandwagon?

You'll find that I never jump on bandwagons.

it was a tongue in cheek comment based on my perception of her on-line persona. I dont think she'd have taken offence.

[Naughty Cal]

You'll find that I never jump on bandwagons.

it was a tongue in cheek comment based on my perception of her on-line persona. I dont think she'd have taken offence.

I am deeply wounded

[Guest]

You'll find that I never jump on bandwagons.

it was a tongue in cheek comment based on my perception of her on-line persona. I dont think she'd have taken offence.

Fair enough.

 

i doubt it too, I think she is a much tougher cookie than that, I was just curious as it sounded a bit too personal when you said :-

 

Nobody would enjoy that more than me..

As if she had somehow previously maligned you personally rather than the more general comments she makes.

I am deeply wounded

We can tell.

[thunderbird]

So how do you predict it Tony?

 

No answer yet. You were so sure you could earlier. Please explain to a wider audience how you manage this prediction.

 

Even the experts will be interested I'm sure. After all they have struggled for many years to understand the idiocy of tidal inaccuracies. Yet your old brain claims to know how to predict them. You could be onto a money spinner there old chap.

Your really on a sticky wicket here Rachael, Tony Dunkley's fame for predicting such as this goes before him. Years of being taught by the old masters, mega experience and a mathematical brain many can only aspire to. I hope that will do for starters? When over-horsed, best I think not to go for the ride?

[Naughty Cal]

His fame for something else goes before him!

[Alf Roberts]

It would seem we only have your ( thoroughly debunked and debased) word for that. I don't see many people posting in support of your opinion.

[Naughty Cal]

Hardly debunked.

 

Mr Dunkley seems rather fond of attempting to lead people up the garden path.

 

Some of us don't fall for his act. Some of us have actually had the misfortune to meet the cantankerous old swine so rather then jump on the band wagon and believe his very one side fairy stories, we bring more of the truth to the table.

[Alf Roberts]

There you go again.... The royal 'we'. No Rachel, it's not 'some of us ' , it's you.

[Naughty Cal]

There you go again.... The royal 'we'. No Rachel, it's not 'some of us ' , it's you.

Erm. No it isn't.

[kris88]

Yes I'm afraid it is only you Rachel you seem determined to slag tony off at every opportunity.

The fact you didn't get on with him isn't surprising. But it definitely comes across as the pot calling the kettle black

Regards kris

[Naughty Cal]

Not really.

 

Perhaps you would understand more if you met the people concerned.

 

You would then see just how far from the truth you are.