Why have C&RT applied for a spending review now?

[Midnight]

Considering the recent hits on government finances from the pandemic, Brexit and Putin's invasion of Ukraine why now?

[David Mack]

Because the grant agreement between DEFRA and CRT requires it.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/canal-river-trust-grant-review/terms-of-reference#timing-of-the-review

[Alan de Enfield]

1 hour ago, Midnight said:

Considering the recent hits on government finances from the pandemic, Brexit and Putin's invasion of Ukraine why now?

 

 

I'm sure that C&RT would have been very glad for the whole review to have been cancelled (unfortunatley it is enshrined, in law, in the transfer documents). Considering their fabrication of the KPI results I'd have thought they would be 'over the moon' that the Government have actually delayed it (to give them chance to amend the figures to be more realistic.

[David Mack]

And it's part of a process that has been going on for 2 years. It's only the last stage that has been delayed.

[MtB]

13 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Considering their fabrication of the KPI results I'd have thought they would be 'over the moon' that the Government have actually delayed it (to give them chance to amend the figures to be more realistic.

 

Whyt would they do that? Surely they're delighted to have been given the chance to fabricate check and adjust them ever more optimistically....

[Alan de Enfield]

25 minutes ago, MtB said:

 

Whyt would they do that? Surely they're delighted to have been given the chance to fabricate check and adjust them ever more optimistically....

 

 

But the optimistic figures are blatently incorrect and so far out if DEFRA accept them without question then they will be party to fraud.

 

Wasn't the figure of 600,000,000 visits to the waterways quoted a couple of years ago ?

C&RT quoted an insane figure to start with in 2012 and the KPI demanded an increase every year hence getting to the number quoted now.

 

The method of identifying the number of visits  is questionnable.

 

2000 people at random were telephoned or 'stopped' and asked a series of questions, basically identifying if they had visited the wateways in the last 2 weeks, and how many times in that 2 weeks. The metholodgy was then to take the number who had visited and extrapolate, (at the same percentage) this against the total population of GB (~61 million).

 

Someone using the towpath to go to work would be logged as visiting twice per day, 5 days per week (20 times per fortnight)

 

 

These are the questions asked by the survey agency :

 

 

Q1 Firstly, I am going to read out some activities that you may have taken part in recently. For each one, can you tell me whether you personally have taken part in this activity in Britain within the past two weeks? So firstly, have you……. on a stretch of inland water which is used by boats, for example a canal, river or lake.
1. Been on a boat with an engine
2. Been on a boat without an engine? Please
3. include activities such as canoeing, rowing boats and sailing boats
4. Been fishing
5. Been cycling
6. Walked a dog
7. Visited a specific attraction, heritage attraction or museum
8. Taken a walk or a ramble for leisure
9. Taken a run or jog for leisure
10. Used or walked along only in order to get somewhere else? For example, to get to work or to go shopping
11. Bought food or drink in a pub
12. Just sat or stood by the water as a break in the day to relax (always penultimate activity)
13. Used or visited for some other purpose? (SPECIFY)

Q2. [For each activity at Q1] On how many days in the past two weeks have you personally……[read out activity]….on a stretch of inland water used by boats, for example, a river, canal or lake in Britain?
WRITE IN NUMBER OF DAYS BETWEEN 1 AND 14.

Q3. [For each activity at Q1] And thinking about the last day you have……[read out activity]….which river, canal or lake did you do this on?
RECORD ALL OF THE FOLLOWING:
a) Name of Waterway (if known):
b) Nearest Town / Village:
c) Name of County:

Edited June 16, 2022 by Alan de Enfield

[beerbeerbeerbeerbeer]

11 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Someone using the towpath to go to work would be logged as visiting twice per day, 5 days per week (20 times per fortnight)

yea, why wouldn’t they?

 

personally, I visit the towpath maybe 10 times a day, or even 20 
 

[Alan de Enfield]

1 minute ago, Goliath said:

yea, why wouldn’t they?

 

personally, I visit the towpath maybe 10 times a day, or even 20 
 

 

Because the methology used to calculate the number of visists takes you 10 visists per day and assumes that the whole population does the same.

[MtB]

14 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Because the methology used to calculate the number of visists takes you 10 visists per day and assumes that the whole population does the same.

 

 

So best not to question the figures too hard, or the grant might be reduced. 

 

Or have I misunderstood? 

 

600,000,000 visits a year strikes me as unrealistically conservative. They should be more optimistic! 

 

 

 

 

 

[Alan de Enfield]

1 minute ago, MtB said:

Or have I misunderstood? 

 

I think so.

 

The review has been going on for the last 2 years with the final decison to continue to pay the grant, or to withdraw it to be announced in July.

 

This announcement has now been delayed until 'later in the year'. If the KPIs had been actually achieved I'd suggest there would be no need for the delay.

[MtB]

2 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

I think so.

 

The review has been going on for the last 2 years with the final decison to continue to pay the grant, or to withdraw it to be announced in July.

 

This announcement has now been delayed until 'later in the year'. If the KPIs had been actually achieved I'd suggest there would be no need for the delay.

 

True, and an interesting insight into the thinking of the guvvermint. 

 

If they were minded to withdraw the grant they would not have delayed the decision until CRT had fabricated better figures.

 

 

[beerbeerbeerbeerbeer]

32 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Because the methology used to calculate the number of visists takes you 10 visists per day and assumes that the whole population does the same.

Alan you are obviously the only one who doesn’t visit the towpath, 

Perhaps you should, 

Might make you feel a little better.

[Arthur Marshall]

I would expect this review to have the same effect on funding as any other consultation does, ie none whatsoever.

The decisions will be (probably already have been) made on political grounds with a nod to the colllapsing economy. Let's just hope the canals run through mostly Tory constituences... so that's the Rochdale done for.

[Tacet]

9 hours ago, Goliath said:

yea, why wouldn’t they?

 

personally, I visit the towpath maybe 10 times a day, or even 20 
 

 

9 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Because the methology used to calculate the number of visists takes you 10 visists per day and assumes that the whole population does the same.

Only if Goliath was selected as part of the random sample.  He should know.

 

It is hardly realistic to ask everyone in the country (world?) how many visits they have made - thus sampling is the only reasonable option.  A statistician should be able to calculate how large the sample needs to bee in order to achieve a particular level of confidence that the extrapolation falls within a defined range.

 

Whether the sample was sufficiently random, whether the questions asked were fairly phrased, whether the responses given were accurate and properly recorded and whether I believe the outcome are different matters

 

[Alan de Enfield]

9 hours ago, Goliath said:

Alan you are obviously the only one who doesn’t visit the towpath, 

Perhaps you should, 

Might make you feel a little better.

 

 

I'm totally confused by that post. 

What has it to do with the way C&RT collect visitor numbers ?

[PeterScott]

9 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

 

But the optimistic figures are blatently incorrect and so far out if DEFRA accept them without question then they will be party to fraud.

 

Wasn't the figure of 600,000,000 visits to the waterways quoted a couple of years ago ?

C&RT quoted an insane figure to start with in 2012 and the KPI demanded an increase every year hence getting to the number quoted now.

 

The method of identifying the number of visits  is questionnable.

 

2000 people at random were telephoned or 'stopped' and asked a series of questions, basically identifying if they had visited the wateways in the last 2 weeks, and how many times in that 2 weeks. The metholodgy was then to take the number who had visited and extrapolate, (at the same percentage) this against the total population of GB (~61 million).

 

Someone using the towpath to go to work would be logged as visiting twice per day, 5 days per week (20 times per fortnight)

 

 

These are the questions asked by the survey agency :

 

 

Q1 Firstly, I am going to read out some activities that you may have taken part in recently. For each one, can you tell me whether you personally have taken part in this activity in Britain within the past two weeks? So firstly, have you……. on a stretch of inland water which is used by boats, for example a canal, river or lake.
1. Been on a boat with an engine
2. Been on a boat without an engine? Please
3. include activities such as canoeing, rowing boats and sailing boats
4. Been fishing
5. Been cycling
6. Walked a dog
7. Visited a specific attraction, heritage attraction or museum
8. Taken a walk or a ramble for leisure
9. Taken a run or jog for leisure
10. Used or walked along only in order to get somewhere else? For example, to get to work or to go shopping
11. Bought food or drink in a pub
12. Just sat or stood by the water as a break in the day to relax (always penultimate activity)
13. Used or visited for some other purpose? (SPECIFY)

Q2. [For each activity at Q1] On how many days in the past two weeks have you personally……[read out activity]….on a stretch of inland water used by boats, for example, a river, canal or lake in Britain?
WRITE IN NUMBER OF DAYS BETWEEN 1 AND 14.

Q3. [For each activity at Q1] And thinking about the last day you have……[read out activity]….which river, canal or lake did you do this on?
RECORD ALL OF THE FOLLOWING:
a) Name of Waterway (if known):
b) Nearest Town / Village:
c) Name of County:

 

Useful summary of the methodology.

 

I am (you also have to be one to fully understand the allusion) a loyal listener of More Or Less (R4). It would be fun to persuade Tim Harford to do a piece on this. His first question would always be Is it a big number?

 

And is it?? It tells us that each day (evened out over the year) a couple of million people use the waterways in some way. Whether that's a useful number to think about is a different question. We were moored on the Regents Canal one weekday morning, and most of them whizzed-by on bikes while I wanted to walk across the towingpath.

 

For comparison, it is important in the debate on 'the heart of cities' to know how many shop-visits  there are each year ?? Count one each time a potential customer steps through the threshold of a retail shop. Tens of billions, maybe ??

 

As to the methodology, a sample of a couple of thousand randomly-selected people would meet the standards of the marketing professionals. And however much we might hate opinion polls, they have developed the science of population segmentation to create results that give a sensible basis for business decisions. ...

 

... and back to why DEFRA might want to do it. Two primary reasons: they want to know the trend: is waterway-use increasing or decreasing? and (like the use of roads by pedestrians) how can the public's use-and-benefit be balanced by pubic payments for them? If there could be turnstiles at every towingpath entrance, would the public think 5p/visit to be excessive?

 

 

And an excuse for a picture:

 

How many people see this sign every year ? And is it a big number?

 

It's an electronic advertizement sign on the M5 by Stewart Aqueduct on the BCN. Its base may be on BCN land (?). And may even bring some revenue to C&RT

[Creaking Gate]

 

So how might you propose they do that count? Literally count every single person on a set day - that is completely unworkable to the point of fantasy.   

 

If someone walks the towpath twice in one day that's 2 visits.  Not one. 

 

Whichever way it shakes, some projection is required.    I'll admit 6000,00000,0000 seems fanciful but even so, its not possible to get an exact count because its virtually impossible to do that.

 

Unless we beep in/out like the Dutch rail system....and i can hear the cries of my rights are infringed already. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Creaking Gate

[toffeedanish]

14 hours ago, Arthur Marshall said:

ILet's just hope the canals run through mostly Tory constituences... so that's the Rochdale done for.

By length, the majority of the Rochdale Canal is in Tory territory (Heywood and Middleton, Calder Valley constituencies. Although it does pass through more Labour than Tory constituencies). 

[Tacet]

13 hours ago, PeterScott said:

 

 

 

And an excuse for a picture:

 

How many people see this sign every year ? And is it a big number?

 

It's an electronic advertizement sign on the M5 by Stewart Aqueduct on the BCN. Its base may be on BCN land (?). And may even bring some revenue to C&RT

 

According to the DFT, that part of the M5 has an annual average daily flow of around 100k (both directions - which seems plausible).  Or around 36m per annum.  It seems it is visible from all lanes.

 

The basic vehicle types are available, which would allow you to have a stab at the number of person passing each day, but keeping it simple, a car typically has (but maybe not on the M5?) 1.5 occupants; some will be dozing or looking elsewhere etc so maybe a total of 50m per year.

 

More tricky is how many (different) people in a year, which is the question posed.  My guess is a lot less than 50m; possibly high seven figures?

 

[Allan(nb Albert)]

Following the falsification of CRT's annual report on which the grant review was based, CRT chair, Allan Leighton will be stepping down a year early. I have also been told that Defra has insisted deputy chair, Jenny Abramsky, also steps down. 

 

Whilst certain that CRT's chair is going, I have been unable verify that Abramsky is leaving at the same time. CRT is, however, actively recruiting two new trustees. 

 

It would make sense for government to delay an announcement until these two have gone. Otherwise, it might look as if trustees, named as being responsible for falsification, are leaving in protest at post 2027 funding. 

 

It is also worth noting that Defra's director of Floods and Water, responsible for administering the grant agreement and grant review, left before Christmas. 

 

 

 

[Alan de Enfield]

The Turkeys are finally coming home to roost.

[Iain_S]

On 16/06/2022 at 23:22, Alan de Enfield said:

 

 

But the optimistic figures are blatently incorrect and so far out if DEFRA accept them without question then they will be party to fraud.

 

Wasn't the figure of 600,000,000 visits to the waterways quoted a couple of years ago ?

C&RT quoted an insane figure to start with in 2012 and the KPI demanded an increase every year hence getting to the number quoted now.

 

The method of identifying the number of visits  is questionnable.

 

2000 people at random were telephoned or 'stopped' and asked a series of questions, basically identifying if they had visited the wateways in the last 2 weeks, and how many times in that 2 weeks. The metholodgy was then to take the number who had visited and extrapolate, (at the same percentage) this against the total population of GB (~61 million).

 

Someone using the towpath to go to work would be logged as visiting twice per day, 5 days per week (20 times per fortnight)

 

 

These are the questions asked by the survey agency :

 

 

Q1 Firstly, I am going to read out some activities that you may have taken part in recently. For each one, can you tell me whether you personally have taken part in this activity in Britain within the past two weeks? So firstly, have you……. on a stretch of inland water which is used by boats, for example a canal, river or lake.
1. Been on a boat with an engine
2. Been on a boat without an engine? Please
3. include activities such as canoeing, rowing boats and sailing boats
4. Been fishing
5. Been cycling
6. Walked a dog
7. Visited a specific attraction, heritage attraction or museum
8. Taken a walk or a ramble for leisure
9. Taken a run or jog for leisure
10. Used or walked along only in order to get somewhere else? For example, to get to work or to go shopping
11. Bought food or drink in a pub
12. Just sat or stood by the water as a break in the day to relax (always penultimate activity)
13. Used or visited for some other purpose? (SPECIFY)

Q2. [For each activity at Q1] On how many days in the past two weeks have you personally……[read out activity]….on a stretch of inland water used by boats, for example, a river, canal or lake in Britain?
WRITE IN NUMBER OF DAYS BETWEEN 1 AND 14.

Q3. [For each activity at Q1] And thinking about the last day you have……[read out activity]….which river, canal or lake did you do this on?
RECORD ALL OF THE FOLLOWING:
a) Name of Waterway (if known):
b) Nearest Town / Village:
c) Name of County:

Hmmm, : so if I'm out on the boat, use a bike for lock wheeling, take the dog, walk round the lock to set it, stand about for a bit while waiting for the boat, does that count as 5 visits?

[Sea Dog]

5 minutes ago, Iain_S said:

Hmmm, : so if I'm out on the boat, use a bike for lock wheeling, take the dog, walk round the lock to set it, stand about for a bit while waiting for the boat, does that count as 5 visits?

I'd say yes, but how many locks did you do on the sample day? If you were on the Ashby I'm selling my boat while the going is good, but if you did Tardebigge...

[Arthur Marshall]

12 minutes ago, Iain_S said:

Hmmm, : so if I'm out on the boat, use a bike for lock wheeling, take the dog, walk round the lock to set it, stand about for a bit while waiting for the boat, does that count as 5 visits?

Measuring towpath visits is a bit like measuring a coastline. It's fractal - the more accuracy you want, the bigger the number gets. I just spent a month on the boat and so you could say on one day I used the towpath once. But as above, I did twelve locks singlehanding, which is about 48 visits, plus mooring up, emptying the stove etc. The number doesn't really mean anything useful at all, but beaurocracts love counting things. It's just something they do to justify their existence and has no effect on any decision they might make, which will depend entirely on other factors, few of which have any relation to, in our case, usage or maintenance of the waterways.

[MtB]

18 hours ago, Iain_S said:

Hmmm, : so if I'm out on the boat, use a bike for lock wheeling, take the dog, walk round the lock to set it, stand about for a bit while waiting for the boat, does that count as 5 visits?

 

 

No. That would count as 5,000,000,000,000 visits, obviously.