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Beer and General Boating.


matty40s

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11 hours ago, matty40s said:

We did Lockdown 1 to protect the NHS,

 

Whilst most people will applaud the far-reaching measures which have been taken (if you don't believe that they've been far-reaching, compare how you're living now with how you were living a year ago), this was a flaw. Whilst many people enjoy helping other people, human nature is primarily selfish. The message "Protect yourself" would have had more impact on the public than "Protect other people" or "Protect the N.H.S." I do wonder why such a slogan has not been used.

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5 minutes ago, Athy said:

Whilst most people will applaud the far-reaching measures which have been taken (if you don't believe that they've been far-reaching, compare how you're living now with how you were living a year ago), this was a flaw. Whilst many people enjoy helping other people, human nature is primarily selfish. The message "Protect yourself" would have had more impact on the public than "Protect other people" or "Protect the N.H.S." I do wonder why such a slogan has not been used.

Precisely because of that.

It was about shared responsibility, reaching out to those who might just think "sod it", to remind them that it might affect their parents or grandparents, if not them.

Images were shared at this time last year of the Italian NHS being overrun with Covid, doctors having to play good with peoples lives as they had to make choices of who to save in swamped hospitals. 

It worked, the 1st lockdown essentially worked for 2 months and did its job in bringing the 1st wave under control and reducing it to very low levels.

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5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Precisely because of that.

It was about shared responsibility,

Yes it was, and of course that's laudable. But a message "If you don't follow the rules, YOU could die" would have been far more effective.

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23 minutes ago, Athy said:

The message "Protect yourself" would have had more impact on the public than "Protect other people" or "Protect the N.H.S." I do wonder why such a slogan has not been used.

 

I agree with this Athy.

 

The government road map (Step 3) language hints this when it uses the phrase "It will remain important for people to consider the risks for themselves, taking into account whether they and those they meet have been vaccinated or are at greater risk.". 

 

I can see why the "behavoural scientists' in SAGE tried the 'guilt trip' route, but now that milions of people have lost their jobs, buisnesses and future income, more people will be taking a 'protect yourself' stance.

 

Personally, I think we should manage our own risk, rather than government become our keeper. Obviously we still need to protect those who can't protect themselves, but there still seem to be healthy people who want a nanny state, or dare I say, a dystopian state (which has been mentioned by at least one MP). 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Athy said:

Yes it was, and of course that's laudable. But a message "If you don't follow the rules, YOU could die" would have been far more effective.

It wouldn't, as most people wouldnt die, unless they were over 70

  • Greenie 1
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On way to Northampton last week car flashed up ‘service due’

On return checked paperwork. Last one was sept 19. In the interim the local  (Honda) dealer has gone west, and it was on a service plan.

 As it’s now 9years old it’s off to independent. Mileage between 2019 and now 4900. No wonder companies are going broke. 

Bike computer says 15800 over same period!

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11 minutes ago, roland elsdon said:

On way to Northampton last week car flashed up ‘service due’

On return checked paperwork. Last one was sept 19. In the interim the local  (Honda) dealer has gone west, and it was on a service plan.

 As it’s now 9years old it’s off to independent. Mileage between 2019 and now 4900. No wonder companies are going broke. 

Bike computer says 15800 over same period!

 

Well this thread is about beer, so it's not surprising we ended up talking politics,  just like a real pub. ?

  • Haha 1
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1 minute ago, Rambling Boater said:

 

Well this thread is about beer, so it's not surprising we ended up talking politics,  just like a real pub. ?

But Roland didn't mention politics.

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1 minute ago, Rambling Boater said:

True, he didn't mention boating either. Are you going to report him to yourself? ?

:D

You've been a member long enough to know that threads - like real-life conversations, of blessed memory - tend to drift away from their initial topic.

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18 hours ago, JamesFrance said:

The number of cases will automatically increase as more people are being tested.   As long as the number of new hospital patients continues to drop and deaths go down by a third each week there should be no real problem with unlocking.   Opening schools was always going to be the worst risk for increasing the case number again, so they must be expecting that now.

Do we know that more individuals are being tested day on day, why would this be necessary? There is no need to test the whole population, only those in special circumstances, eg ill health, schooling, health care, personal services, etc. The rest of us should take responsiblity for our own cleanliness and safety. It's those who disregard the simple measures we have been repeatedly told about over the past twelve months who need to accept that it is their behaviour that is contributing to prolonging the agony, and creating more infections and deaths, not of  themselves ( see Darwinism) but in the whole population. 

[ Deep breath. ] 

I am not an epidemiologist who would run lots ot statistical models, nor a politician who would run the model best suited to the desired result, but I don't think we can compare the initial testing results when all testees were virgins, to current test results when results from virgins, and harlots are mixed together. 

Edited by LadyG
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14 minutes ago, LadyG said:

Do we know that more people are being tested day on day, why would this be necessary? There is no need to test the whole population, only those in special circumstances, eg  scholing, health care, personal services, etc. The rest of us should take responsiblity for our own cleanliness and safety, it's those who disregard the simple measures we have been told about over the past twelve months who need to accept that it is their behaviour that is contributing to prolonging the agony, and chasing deaths, not of  themselves ( see Darwinism) but in the whole population. [ Deep breath. ] 

I am not an epidemiologist who wouls run lots ot statistical models, nor a politician who would run the model best suited to the desired result, but I don't think we can compare the initial testing results when all testees were virgins, to current test results whenresults from virgins, and harlots are mixed together. 

Yes the number of tests is about 70% up in the latest week compared with the week before, there is a good web site showing all the recent trends:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

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13 hours ago, Rambling Boater said:

 

As has been pointed out, part of the reason is that the rate of testing has increased. Before blaming 90% of the population for not sticking to the rules, you could ask how many people have died of C19 due to the  international passenger flights which have continued throughout the 3 lock downs? 

 

 

Well from where I sit I'm pretty sure a lot of people are breaking the rules. It might not be 90% but a lot still are.

 

To the left and right of us both households have been breaking the rules on household mixing right through all the three lockdowns and tier restrictions we have been in. Same as a house across the road.

 

The thing I find incredible is that two of the households concerned have NHS nursing staff in them or visiting them.

 

So I find it difficult sometimes to take on board the 'stay home protect the NHS message' when some staff working in the NHS can't seem to adhere to it themselves.

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23 hours ago, ditchcrawler said:

Even looking at the 30 days you can see how it has flattened out its hardly moved for the past weekimage.png.621c547ce99eeda2626e049414a473a2.png

Well its turned the corner now and is on the way up, even the weekly average number is up. I expect a lot is down to school kids being tested who didn't know they had it 

image.png.347f806c27110630ed6dc90ee12881a9.png

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2 hours ago, ditchcrawler said:

Well its turned the corner now and is on the way up, even the weekly average number is up. I expect a lot is down to school kids being tested who didn't know they had it 

 

 

As I indicated before we can afford, and indeed expect an increase in 'detected' cases, noting that the number of detected cases does not necessarily mean an increase in 'actual' cases, especially when you suddenly ramp up the numbers of people you test. If we had had a proper testing system in place back in March the number of cases would have been massively higher than what was being reported.

 

In our family at that time we had one confirmed case (detected on hospitalisation) and four other cases of people who's symptoms would trigger a test now. None of them were tested back then, only the hospitalised case. Only one out of five possible cases was detected. Two more of those five were almost 100% certainly infected, the other two, me being one is debatable.

 

In reality we can also afford a degree of actual increase in cases too. These are school kids infecting each other and potentially their younger parents/teachers all of whom are not in the main in high risk/priority groups. Obviously anybody who is in a high risk group still needs to be careful. As an example we have been providing childcare to our Granddaughter for weeks now as part of a childcare bubble. That has ceased this week now she is back at school and the bubble is swapping to another family member from next week, 10 days are recommended between swapping bubbles, or were last time we checked.

 

This is because it is not yet three weeks since my first AZ vaccination, though it is for Mrs. HN. Once it is we will see where we are in terms of restrictions and decide what happens next.

 

I'm not sure what is happening about 'at risk' teachers as the information on that seems variable.

 

I'm not a govt. scientist obviously but logically to me the real figures that matter are:-

 

1 - Number of positive COVID cases AND the percentage of positive COVID cases versus total tested.

 

2 - Number of COVID hospitalisations.

 

3 - Number of COVID patients in ICU.

 

4 - Number of COVID deaths.

 

2,3 & 4 should fall and get to an 'acceptable' level, even if 1 goes up and even if it remains stubbornly high.

 

If 2,3, & 4 significantly rise along with 1 then as Jack Swigert is often erroneously quoted as saying, "Houston, we have a problem".

 

 

 

Edited by The Happy Nomad
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17 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Heres a good new one for despondent Ditchcrawler.

Number of positive tests against total tests carried out for some of the worst hit European countries.

image.png.866a4e55cd36798106568e335c8f437c.png

Depending on how you select people to be tested, you you probably get any one of those lines from the same population. The only useful part of it is the timeline trend one each line separately although, even that is marred by the changes frequently made to the testing regime for reason other than getting reliable data.

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On 11/03/2021 at 15:15, doratheexplorer said:

This usually takes me past one of the main trunk roads into Birmingham.  That road is barely any quieter than it would be without lockdown. 

Interesting.   Up here in the frozen north both the A66 & M6 are noticeably quieter (mainly lorries fewer cars) and the local roads virtually deserted.

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11 hours ago, The Happy Nomad said:

 

Well from where I sit I'm pretty sure a lot of people are breaking the rules. It might not be 90% but a lot still are.

 

To the left and right of us both households have been breaking the rules on household mixing right through all the three lockdowns and tier restrictions we have been in. Same as a house across the road.

 

The thing I find incredible is that two of the households concerned have NHS nursing staff in them or visiting them.

 

So I find it difficult sometimes to take on board the 'stay home protect the NHS message' when some staff working in the NHS can't seem to adhere to it themselves.

 

You didn't answer my question though. 

 

"Before blaming 90% of the population for not sticking to the rules, you could ask how many people have died of C19 due to the  international passenger flights which have continued throughout the 3 lock downs? "

Edited by Rambling Boater
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3 minutes ago, Rambling Boater said:

 

You didn't answer my question though.

 

Which question?

 

Ive been through my notifications and cant see you have quoted me.

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