Beer and General Boating.

[matty40s]

The definitive guide to how long you've got to wait...

Boating can also be discussed here.

 

https://onewayroadtobeer.com/

[mrsmelly]

We are opening the bar here on the 12th........yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Victor Vectis]

We're planning a trip up to the boat on the 12th. < loud cheers >

 

I wonder how many other people are thinking along the same lines?

[Alan de Enfield]

I will not be holding my breath - 'hope for the best but prepare for the worse'.

 

We are already being drip-fed 'sound bites' that lifting of restrictions may not happen as planned.

 

 

Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a Covid surge in Europe - and the UK could be next.

The Prime Minister sounded the alarm today after Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said “all the modelling” suggests cases will surge as lockdown eases.

And he accepted the reopening of schools this week will “inevitably” make the situation riskier.

It raises another threat to the timetable for easing lockdown - with the PM repeatedly warning the dates of April 12, May 17 and June 21 for key changes could be pushed back.

He wrote in a newspaper article: “We must recognise that the rate of infection is still high – much higher than last summer.

“We can see the signs of a surge of Covid among some of our European friends, and we remember how we in the UK have tended to follow that upwards curve, if a few weeks later.

 

Europe Staggers as Infectious Variants Power Virus Surge | Voice of America - English (voanews.com)

 

MILAN - The virus swept through a nursery school and an adjacent elementary school in the Milan suburb of Bollate with amazing speed. In a matter of just days, 45 children and 14 staff members had tested positive.

Europe recorded 1 million new COVID-19 cases last week, an increase of 9% from the previous week and a reversal that ended a six-week decline in new infections, WHO said Thursday.

"The spread of the variants is driving the increase, but not only,'' said Dr. Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, citing "also the opening of society, when it is not done in a safe and a controlled manner."

[ditchcrawler]

Yesterdays numbers were up a little, very little change over the past week 

[doratheexplorer]

13 minutes ago, ditchcrawler said:

Yesterdays numbers were up a little, very little change over the past week 

Yes, I've been watching this closely.  It's concerning as these figures aren't yet affected by schools reopening.

 

The reason for the flattening off is simple.  90% of people aren't sticking to the rules.

3 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

We are hoping to be opening the bar here on the 12th........yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

FIFY

[matty40s]

24 minutes ago, ditchcrawler said:

Yesterdays numbers were up a little, very little change over the past week 

You cant take a single day figure as anything significant.

[Athy]

17 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

 

 

The reason for the flattening off is simple.  90% of people aren't sticking to the rules.

 

O ye of little faith!

 

Even in the unlikely event of that being true, the most recent figures do give some cause for concern, as so many people have now had their (at least first) vaccination that the number of new infections should be in steep decline.

19 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

 

FIFY

Whatty?

 

Foster's Is For You?

[George and Dragon]

2 minutes ago, Athy said:

Foster's Is For You?

Shurely almost everyone here wouldn't use that to put out a fire

[Sea Dog]

3 hours ago, Victor Vectis said:

We're planning a trip up to the boat on the 12th. < loud cheers >

 

I wonder how many other people are thinking along the same lines?

This is something I'm wondering about. Do I really want to share the M5 with thousands of over-excited grandparents who haven't driven a car for months on their first day of freedom to travel?

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Athy said:

O ye of little faith!

 

Even in the unlikely event of that being true, the most recent figures do give some cause for concern, as so many people have now had their (at least first) vaccination that the number of new infections should be in steep decline.

Whatty?

 

Foster's Is For You?

 

The problem is it's the younger ones who haven't been vaccinated yet and they seem to be the ones disregarding the rules so they are busily infecting each other.

 

They still count in the numbers even if they tend to be the ones who survive it or don't even become that ill.

 

The number of cases on it's own is not the sole issue the govt. are watching, it's also hospital admissions and deaths. If all three start to rise again then we have a problem.

[ditchcrawler]

17 minutes ago, matty40s said:

You cant take a single day figure as anything significant.

Even looking at the 30 days you can see how it has flattened out its hardly moved for the past week

[mrsmelly]

40 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

Yes, I've been watching this closely.  It's concerning as these figures aren't yet affected by schools reopening.

 

The reason for the flattening off is simple.  90% of people aren't sticking to the rules.

FIFY

I cant see it not happening. It would be great if we could continue lockdown until zero deaths and then work on zero deaths from influenza and so on but living in caves is where we would be.  Living with the virus is what we have to do, not everyone are little frightened old men with pensions to live on so our youngsters need to earn. 

[peterboat]

I was reading that Italy is struggling with the UK variant, an Italian article suggests its more aggressive than the original both in spread and death rate, I thought tell me about it we have been dealing with it since September! Also I saw that yesterday Brazil went over 2000 dead in a day, I dont think this crisis is over yet rapid vaccination of everybody is the only way out of this pandemic and obey the simple rules, fingers crossed for us winning because losing means a lot of us not cruising next year

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, mrsmelly said:

I cant see it not happening. It would be great if we could continue lockdown until zero deaths and then work on zero deaths from influenza and so on but living in caves is where we would be.  Living with the virus is what we have to do, not everyone are little frightened old men with pensions to live on so our youngsters need to earn. 

 

We do have to accept that there is going to be an ongoing level of infections, to defeat it completely is not going to happen but apparently the wee Scottish lassie has said that his her aim. Quite how you do that is beyond me, particularly as they are part of the UK and the UK govt. seem to have pretty well accepted total eradication is just not going to happen. It's about containment as best we can. So deaths just have to be brought down to an 'acceptable'* level and the NHS be brought back to running 'normally', or as close as they can. That is the reality of where we are.

 

 

 

* Before somebody chips in with a smart Alec remark, yes I know no deaths are truly 'acceptable'. The term is used in the context of being seen alongside deaths from other causes eg Flu.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by The Happy Nomad

[mrsmelly]

1 minute ago, The Happy Nomad said:

 

We do have to accept that there is going to be an ongoing level of infections, to defeat it completely is not going to happen but apparently the wee Scottish lassie has said that his her aim. Quite how you do that is beyond me, particularly as they are part of the UK and the UK govt. seem to have pretty well accepted total eradication is just not going to happen. It's about containment as best we can. So deaths just have to be brought down to an 'acceptable'* level and the NHS be brought back to running 'normally', or as close as they can. That is the reality of here we are.

 

 

 

* Before somebody chips in with a smart Alec remark, yes I know no deaths are truly 'acceptable'. The term is used in the context of being seen alongside deaths from other causes eg Flu.

In a nutshell ?

[Mike Todd]

2 hours ago, doratheexplorer said:

Yes, I've been watching this closely.  It's concerning as these figures aren't yet affected by schools reopening.

 

The reason for the flattening off is simple.  90% of people aren't sticking to the rules.

FIFY

You cannot conclude that but you can conclude that R is very close to one. Why that is so is more about speculation. It could be that the number of people sticking to the rules (a majority) remains pretty constant. But you can see why Whitty et al are concerned about the impact of a return to schools and colleges could easily trigger another significant upswing. Also we can conclude that at this rate the eradication of the disease will take a very long time without a vaccine - until everyone has had it and gets immunity (if that happens)

[doratheexplorer]

28 minutes ago, Mike Todd said:

You cannot conclude that but you can conclude that R is very close to one. Why that is so is more about speculation. It could be that the number of people sticking to the rules (a majority) remains pretty constant. But you can see why Whitty et al are concerned about the impact of a return to schools and colleges could easily trigger another significant upswing. Also we can conclude that at this rate the eradication of the disease will take a very long time without a vaccine - until everyone has had it and gets immunity (if that happens)

I base my opinions on personal experience.  Right now we are still supposedly in lockdown, with a stay at home order, and a limited number of reasons to leave your house.  This has pretty much been the case since the beginning of January.  I go for a walk daily.  This usually takes me past one of the main trunk roads into Birmingham.  That road is barely any quieter than it would be without lockdown.  To suggest that the majority are sticking to the rules just isn't plausible.  Pretty much everyone I speak to admits to little breaches of the rules when asked.  That's all it takes to cause the flattening off.  People are fed up with the situation but can't grasp that the more they bend and break the rules, the longer the situation will continue.

 

FFS - look at the amount of people who still can't work out how to put a mask on properly!

 

[JamesFrance]

The number of cases will automatically increase as more people are being tested.   As long as the number of new hospital patients continues to drop and deaths go down by a third each week there should be no real problem with unlocking.   Opening schools was always going to be the worst risk for increasing the case number again, so they must be expecting that now.

[ditchcrawler]

35 minutes ago, JamesFrance said:

The number of cases will automatically increase as more people are being tested.   As long as the number of new hospital patients continues to drop and deaths go down by a third each week there should be no real problem with unlocking.   Opening schools was always going to be the worst risk for increasing the case number again, so they must be expecting that now.

This is true with more testing as Trump said, but I would have expected with numbers falling the fall rate would have accelerated as it should become harder to find someone to catch it from

[Mike Todd]

1 hour ago, ditchcrawler said:

This is true with more testing as Trump said, but I would have expected with numbers falling the fall rate would have accelerated as it should become harder to find someone to catch it from

Although the main figures given publicly are subject to the test numbers as you indicate, I think that the technical people also use the rate per test ie how many positives per so many tests. This should be directly related to the actual infection rate, unless there is a possibility that an extension of the testing goes into low infection categories. However, the absolute number of infections, and its rate per 100K of population are important for planning purposes esp NHS demand levels as the number of beds cannot be quickly increased to meet an upsurge in total demand. However, I also think I have heard that the politicians, or their advisers, are sceptical about the ability of the GBP (actually they really mean the GEP) to understand rates - they really do think that we are all idiots. Of course, there is plenty of evidence to support that conclusion . . . 

[robtheplod]

10 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

I will not be holding my breath - 'hope for the best but prepare for the worse'.

 

We are already being drip-fed 'sound bites' that lifting of restrictions may not happen as planned.

 

 

Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a Covid surge in Europe - and the UK could be next.

The Prime Minister sounded the alarm today after Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said “all the modelling” suggests cases will surge as lockdown eases.

And he accepted the reopening of schools this week will “inevitably” make the situation riskier.

It raises another threat to the timetable for easing lockdown - with the PM repeatedly warning the dates of April 12, May 17 and June 21 for key changes could be pushed back.

He wrote in a newspaper article: “We must recognise that the rate of infection is still high – much higher than last summer.

“We can see the signs of a surge of Covid among some of our European friends, and we remember how we in the UK have tended to follow that upwards curve, if a few weeks later.

 

Europe Staggers as Infectious Variants Power Virus Surge | Voice of America - English (voanews.com)

 

MILAN - The virus swept through a nursery school and an adjacent elementary school in the Milan suburb of Bollate with amazing speed. In a matter of just days, 45 children and 14 staff members had tested positive.

Europe recorded 1 million new COVID-19 cases last week, an increase of 9% from the previous week and a reversal that ended a six-week decline in new infections, WHO said Thursday.

"The spread of the variants is driving the increase, but not only,'' said Dr. Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, citing "also the opening of society, when it is not done in a safe and a controlled manner."

 

Crikey, can you image what would happen if Boris started to push the dates back. People have been patient I think, but this might be testing times.....

[matty40s]

16 minutes ago, robtheplod said:

 

Crikey, can you image what would happen if Boris started to push the dates back. People have been patient I think, but this might be testing times.....

We did Lockdown 1 to protect the NHS, and for scientists to get their heads round the new virus. We did Lockdown 2 to stop the wave 2 increase seen Worldwide, and protect the NHS. We stumbled into Lockdown 3 as lockdown 2 hadnt worked, the Kent strain had spread, and everyone had a jolly Christmas as Boris promised. Lockdown 3 was to protect the NHS....it almost collapsed in some areas, only spare capacity regionally helped London and SE get through it.

 

With the vaccine success we have seen, Israel leading the way with real time data, and us following closely behind, it doesnt matter if the cases rise somewhat, the NHS will NOT see the crisis it saw in January. The deaths will NOT rise to previously horrific levels.

There comes a time when we as a nation will say, let's get some life back safely, and this Summer will see that. Some measures like sanitisers in shops, screens, and face masks on public transport, and in Autumn may stay...but mostly we shall settle down to a new normality. 

I dont see global travel by the masses until next year, when more countries get vaccine compliant, and some national leaders aiming  for zeroCovid (unachievable), may even suppress UK wide travel.

Boris will not dare hold back much at all from the roadmap, as data rules dates, and the only really important data is hospital admissions and deaths.

 

Hospitality has been crucified throughout this Pandemic, unfairly seeing the stats and data on main transmission places, so let's get back to

Edited March 11, 2021 by matty40s

[Rambling Boater]

10 hours ago, doratheexplorer said:

 

The reason for the flattening off is simple.  90% of people aren't sticking to the rules.

 

As has been pointed out, part of the reason is that the rate of testing has increased. Before blaming 90% of the population for not sticking to the rules, you could ask how many people have died of C19 due to the  international passenger flights which have continued throughout the 3 lock downs? 

 

Edited March 11, 2021 by Rambling Boater

[roland elsdon]

If the economy only declined by 2.9% in january that evidences much more activity than first lockdown.

Traffic volumes are high , we went in car for first time last week ( to get injection) . There were jams  in Northampton.

I dont think ‘they’ are breaking rules I think that people are working.