Boat overnight stays....

[doratheexplorer]

5 minutes ago, Athy said:

That's a good question. I always thought (and indeed my parents said) that a cold winter killed off germs; last winter was exceedingly mild, which should have allowed the germs to survive, proliferate and infect people, so I'm really not sure. Why do you think it was?

I've already answered that question. 

Most viruses proliferate in cold temperatures.  That's why we have a winter flu season and not a summer flu season.  Your parent's were wrong. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by doratheexplorer

[Athy]

26 minutes ago, Naughty Cal said:

How many people wouldn't have contracted Covid and gone on to be seriously ill or died had Christmas been cancelled?

 

I genuinely think that allowing Christmas to continue was a big error of judgement from the government and has extended lock down further.

"What a difference a day made". You may be correct, but limiting Christmas gatherings to a single day was probably the strongest action which could be taken. Otherwise there would have been massive public protests, and I reckon that very large numbers would have flouted any ban anyway.

[Athy]

6 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

I've already answered that question.  Most viruses proliferate in cold temperatures.  That's why we have a winter flu season and not a summer flu season.  Your parent's were wrong. 

...as is your punctuation, but we'll overlook that.. But, for example, food stays fresh when kept cold and grows germs and mould when kept at too high a temperature., suggesting that colder can be healthier.

 

If you had already answered the question, why did you need to ask it again?

Edited February 17, 2021 by Athy

[doratheexplorer]

1 minute ago, Athy said:

...as is your punctuation, but we'll overlook that.. But, for example, food stays fresh when kept cold and grows germs and mould when kept at too high a temperature., suggesting that colder can be healthier.

 

If you had already answered the question, why did you need to ask it again?

Food staying fresh has nothing to do with it.  Food doesn't go mouldy because it's caught a virus!

 

It was a rhetorical question.  I thought that was fairly obvious, hence the cognitive dissonance comment.  I was pointing out the Frangar's statement was absurd.

[frangar]

17 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

Food staying fresh has nothing to do with it.  Food doesn't go mouldy because it's caught a virus!

 

It was a rhetorical question.  I thought that was fairly obvious, hence the cognitive dissonance comment.  I was pointing out the Frangar's statement was absurd.

It’s actually 2018-19 that’s lower than average...why do you think that is?

[Richard10002]

8 minutes ago, frangar said:

It’s actually 2018-19 that’s lower than average...why do you think that is?

Forgive me, but am I missing something here?

 

In a poste earlier today, ( the year being 2021), you said "last year", which,  in my book, was 2020.

 

Now you refer to 2018-19,  which is 2 or 3 years ago, and definitely not last year.

 

Any chance you could clear this up for us?

[frangar]

5 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

Forgive me, but am I missing something here?

 

In a poste earlier today, ( the year being 2021), you said "last year", which,  in my book, was 2020.

 

Now you refer to 2018-19,  which is 2 or 3 years ago, and definitely not last year.

 

Any chance you could clear this up for us?

I meant 2018-19 was a low death rate from flu. Eg before any social distancing. Is that better for you. 

 

Edited to add

In a way im quite grateful that theres a few on here that want to stay locked away....means I wont have issues finding a mooring or a seat in a pub...or have to speak to them! 

Edited February 17, 2021 by frangar

[Jerra]

1 hour ago, frangar said:

Whilst hospitals are busy we've not needed any of the nightingale units that were set up....This is a good thing!..but in a bad year hospital ICU'S can be full of normal flu patients....it just so happens that last year had low flu cases....but you dont have to go back far to find years with 20,000 deaths from flu....yet life wasn't stopped 

You may not have noticed but we have had near enough six times as many deaths from Covid.  The other thing being ignored by the don't worry if the less vulnerable catch it campaign is that every time somebody is infected the virus has a chance to mutate.   The more infections even of the less vulnerable the more chance of a mutation which the vaccination doesn't stop.

 

Then we are back to square one and perhaps a more deadly virus.

 

Before life can return to normal infections need to be very low or we risk another lockdown.

[Jerra]

1 hour ago, Athy said:

That's a good question. I always thought (and indeed my parents said) that a cold winter killed off germs; last winter was exceedingly mild, which should have allowed the germs to survive, proliferate and infect people, so I'm really not sure. Why do you think it was?

Bacteria are probably reduced over winter.  The snag is Covid is a virus and the prefer cold temperatures.  There are schools of thought which question if a virus is even alive as they can be crystallized, so "rules" which work for other living things may not apply to a virus.

Edited February 17, 2021 by Jerra

[frangar]

3 minutes ago, Jerra said:

You may not have noticed but we have had near enough six times as many deaths from Covid.  The other thing being ignored by the don't worry if the less vulnerable catch it campaign is that every time somebody is infected the virus has a chance to mutate.   The more infections even of the less vulnerable the more chance of a mutation which the vaccination doesn't stop.

 

Then we are back to square one and perhaps a more deadly virus.

 

Before life can return to normal infections need to be very low or we risk another lockdown.

What happens if like all viruses it mutates and keeps mutating as it is doing now? Indeed its what the flu virus has always done. Are you happy to live another year...another five or ten years like this?

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, frangar said:

I meant 2018-19 was a low death rate from flu. Eg before any social distancing. Is that better for you. 

 

The Flu virus mutates.

 

Now if I had to speculate, which is what it would be because I am not an epidemiologist, I would say the different mutations are more or less infectious, a bit like mutations of the Covid 19 are also different in terms of their ability to infect another person.

 

So the annual rates will fluctuate naturally as well as be suppressed if measures are taken to suppress another respiratory infections, like Covid for example. 

[Richard10002]

5 minutes ago, frangar said:

I meant 2018-19 was a low death rate from flu. Eg before any social distancing. Is that better for you. 

 

Let me get this clear..

 

You state in a post in 2021 that flu deaths were lower "last year", which anyone would take to have been 2020.

 

Somebody asks you, in a rhetorical way, what could be the reason for this lower number, "last year".

 

You then say that you meant 2018-19.

 

I think you are deliberately obfuscating, having made a ridiculous statement. It doesn't really matter why the numbers were low in 2018-19, it was just how the cookie crumbled. Some years its 7000 and others it's 20000+.

 

"Last year", the year you first mentioned, it was low because of Covid restrictions - not rocket science,  hence the rhetorical nature of the question.

 

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, frangar said:

What happens if like all viruses it mutates and keeps mutating as it is doing now? Indeed its what the flu virus has always done. Are you happy to live another year...another five or ten years like this?

 

That is why we have annual flu jabs, to keep on top of the mutations. It's looking increasingly likely annual covid jabs will be required.

 

There is also the potential apparently for it to mutate into less infectious versions.

[frangar]

2 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

 

Let me get this clear..

 

You state in a post in 2021 that flu deaths were lower "last year", which anyone would take to have been 2020.

 

Somebody asks you, in a rhetorical way, what could be the reason for this lower number, "last year".

 

You then say that you meant 2018-19.

 

I think you are deliberately obfuscating, having made a ridiculous statement. It doesn't really matter why the numbers were low in 2018-19, it was just how the cookie crumbled. Some years its 7000 and others it's 20000+.

 

"Last year", the year you first mentioned, it was low because of Covid restrictions - not rocket science,  hence the rhetorical nature of the question.

 

 

I made a mistake in my conversation.....i find it interesting you picked up on this rather than check any facts for yourself......As we will never agree about what is the right course of action shall we meet up in 5 years to see what happened?....or will you still be in hiding?

Edited February 17, 2021 by frangar

[Jerra]

10 minutes ago, frangar said:

What happens if like all viruses it mutates and keeps mutating as it is doing now? Indeed its what the flu virus has always done. Are you happy to live another year...another five or ten years like this?

Flu hasn't shown itself to be such a killer or to mutate as rapidly.   Virologist seem to think Covid has far greater potential for being a problem than Flu.

 

How do we get an NHS which can cope with 20,000 flu deaths a year plus say 20,000 Covid deaths (although most virologists think it could be much higher) and deal with all the other illnesses, not to mention a 10,000,000 waiting list backlog.

 

I haven't suggested it would take any particular length of time.  However there is a large safety margin between easing restrictions in say April versus autumn.

 

Yes I am in the fortunate position that I could live like this as long as it takes.   However I am very conscious others can't which is all the more reason why we have to get it right and not allow the virus to flare up again by stupidly rushing into easing restrictions too soon and/or too quickly.

[doratheexplorer]

36 minutes ago, frangar said:

I meant 2018-19 was a low death rate from flu. Eg before any social distancing. Is that better for you. 

 

Edited to add

In a way im quite grateful that theres a few on here that want to stay locked away....means I wont have issues finding a mooring or a seat in a pub...or have to speak to them! 

2018-2019 was lower than the preceeding 2 years and the following year.  It was about the same as 2015-2016 and well within the bounds of typical annual variation, so no explanation is necessary.  You're just clutching at straws here.  I'll spell it out for you - 2020-2021 has been an exceptional year for low prevalence of flu.  Epidemiologists are virtually unanimous in the opinion that the extreme low numbers are because of the very same measures which have been implemented to combat covid-2.  Those same measures that you're arguing against.

From the government's annual flu report.

[doratheexplorer]

34 minutes ago, frangar said:

What happens if like all viruses it mutates and keeps mutating as it is doing now? Indeed its what the flu virus has always done. Are you happy to live another year...another five or ten years like this?

You're missing you point again.  Driving down the numbers is our best chance of reducing mutations.  What you advocate is the most likely way of producing more infectious and more deadly mutations.

[frangar]

Anyway...to get back to the OP....it looks like all the popular moorings will be nice and empty because quite a number on here will never be boating again. This will suit me just fine...I only hope the pubs are open as well.

[Guest]

Just now, frangar said:

Anyway...to get back to the OP....it looks like all the popular moorings will be nice and empty because quite a number on here will never be boating again. This will suit me just fine...I only hope the pubs are open as well.

 

What a facile comment, that hardly takes us back to the original post.

 

Clearly lots will be boating again, when it's safe to do so and within the rules.

[agew]

Wow

[robtheplod]

I've had several emails from Black Prince advertising holidays. Apparently they are pretty booked for May Bank holiday so people are definately looking to get out and about!

[Naughty Cal]

14 minutes ago, frangar said:

Anyway...to get back to the OP....it looks like all the popular moorings will be nice and empty because quite a number on here will never be boating again. This will suit me just fine...I only hope the pubs are open as well.

Is it safe to assume that when you do catch Covid that you will be perfectly happy to not inflict yourself on the NHS?

 

After all you have no interest in protecting them so why should they protect you?

[frangar]

1 minute ago, Naughty Cal said:

Is it safe to assume that when you do catch Covid that you will be perfectly happy to not inflict yourself on the NHS?

 

After all you have no interest in protecting them so why should they protect you?

"When you do" is a bit of a sweeping statement isnt it? I know a several people who've caught it....some with underlying health conditions....none of them have been admitted to hospital....however I also know people who should be being treated for existing conditions that cant be seen...so is that right prioritisation?

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, frangar said:

"When you do" is a bit of a sweeping statement isnt it? I know a several people who've caught it....some with underlying health conditions....none of them have been admitted to hospital....however I also know people who should be being treated for existing conditions that cant be seen...so is that right prioritisation?

 

Depends on how acutely ill they are.

 

Hospitals are still admitting none covid patients who need acute care and critical care.

 

If we took on board your strategy there would be even less capacity to care for those people who need on going treatment for cancer for example. So frankly your argument is 'all over the place'.

Edited February 17, 2021 by The Happy Nomad

[roland elsdon]

2 hours ago, Richard10002 said:

I think you will find that the general consensus is that there hasn’t been the staff available to man them, so that’s a bit of a red herring, isn’t it!?

 

It isn’t rocket science to see that Boris is limited by the capacity of the NHS without the Nightingale hospitals.

And the capacity of the Nhs is going to fall over a cliff this year. Covid burnout, brexit and our Home Secretary’s inclusive attitude to staff is going to see a retreat from the service. Staff have been driven out towards the end of their careers by nonsense woke training, and a long tradition of bullying, and replaced by shiny new staff with little resilience.