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Two bits of info have come out this week; one is that the Pfizer vaccine does appear to slow down transmission, while there's no evidence yet to show that the AZ one does.  The other interesting thing was that there apparently are no reported cases of virus transmission out of doors - all that panic about people congregating on the beaches was pointless - not a single case can be traced to it.  All the evidence points to indoor transmission only.

So far, anyway.

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43 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

The results coming out of Israel apparantley are saying that the vaccine does reduce spread but no one has bothered to show us any data,

The results from the half million vaccinated in Israel also show that in the first 8 days after vaccination those vaccinated were twice as likely to catch the disease as before.  This is felt I have been assumed to be because they thought as I have been vaccinated I can do x safely not realising there was no antibodies created yet.

 

Results are however good 3,077 cases among the 500,000.   The implication being a good number of them being in that first 8 days.

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1 hour ago, Arthur Marshall said:

The other interesting thing was that there apparently are no reported cases of virus transmission out of doors - all that panic about people congregating on the beaches was pointless - not a single case can be traced to it.  All the evidence points to indoor transmission only.

I dont think we have seen enough data to conclude  that. The press have been crap at reporting real data.

I seem to remember the bit about catching the virus on the beach was one 'expert' saying "I dont know of any cases where it was transmitted on the beach". Has he really looked for all the data (if it exists) on who caught the virus on which beach? I agree indoors is where it is likely to transmit.

I would be convinced it is true if we saw facts rather than 'experts' saying "I have not seen". Where is the data that says there is transmission in certain areas? The pub business is saying there is little/no transmission in pubs. The government and Queen Nichola are dead against alcohol being sold in pubs or after 10pm etc. Who is right. Where are the facts. After 12 months of this, you would think that there is enough even 'rough' data to present.

Boris (and queen Nichola + that old guy in Wales) are wrestling with how to unlock the country. What do we open first? Schools? Shops? Pubs? Holidays? International travel? Come on guys. Give us the data on where transmissions are happening. You have the models. They should be comparing well with what is happening in real time. If that data is not available,  you are not doing your jobs right. Please pull your fingers out and tell us.

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13 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

I dont think we have seen enough data to conclude  that.

Wasn't the Cheltenham Festival horse-racing event, probably the last mass gathering to take place before the lock-down, held responsible for a number of cases? The vast number of its attendees would have been out of doors.

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11 minutes ago, ditchcrawler said:

But if I go to Tesco and then spend the afternoon on the beach before going to the pub that night how do you know where I caught it, O and fishing with a single mate on Sunday morning. Any of whom could have infected me. 

Ok. This happens to 5 million peeps. Some will have only gone to Tesco. Some to tesco and the beach, some to all 3 or 4. You can then analyse the 5 million data points to see which is more prevalent. You then compare data from track and trace (hee hee hee!) and you can get a better guesstimate. It will only be a guesstimate but with 5 million data points it will show quite a clear picture. Trust me - that's how sparse data modelling works. We use it all the time in industry.

4 minutes ago, Athy said:

Wasn't the Cheltenham Festival horse-racing event, probably the last mass gathering to take place before the lock-down, held responsible for a number of cases? The vast number of its attendees would have been out of doors.

Have a vitual greenie for that one Mr Athy. I'd forgotten that one.

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As far as kids going back to school. My observations whilst out shopping during schools turning out after lessons.  The infants and juniors are'nt I think a great problem as most are picked up by parents in cars.  It's the secondary school kids that are the problem as most make there own way home. When they were last at school during the summer I saw literally hundreds of secondary school kids making there way home and hanging about huge huddles everywhere playing smart phones, NOT ONE did I see wearing a mask, they don't think it's cool to do so.  In my opinion they should wear masks at all times, on the way there, whilst in school and on the way home.

Edited by bizzard
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9 minutes ago, bizzard said:

As far as kids going back to school. My observations whilst out shopping during schools turning out after lessons.  The infants and juniors are'nt I think a great problem as most are picked up by parents in cars.  It's the secondary school kids that are the problem as most make there own way home. When they were last at school during the summer I saw literally hundreds of secondary school kids making there way home and hanging about huge huddles everywhere playing smart phones, NOT ONE did I see wearing a mask, they don't think it's cool to do so.  In my opinion they should wear masks at all times, on the way there, whilst in school and on the way home.

Dont forget the school bus as well

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Another of the endlessly confusing statistics. They keep saying that last week, 1 in 100 people had the virus. At one stage at the height of it, it was about 4 in a hundred. As the infection only lasts a couple of weeks, and it's now been rambling about for a year, you would think, on those numbers, just about everyone should have had it by now, especially as they can only count the ones they know about, which is a max of 70%. So the (presumably) resulting immunity should mean infections come down slowly anyway, in addition to the vaccination effect.

it might also explain why it needs to keep mutating to survive.

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1 hour ago, Athy said:

Wasn't the Cheltenham Festival horse-racing event, probably the last mass gathering to take place before the lock-down, held responsible for a number of cases? The vast number of its attendees would have been out of doors.

and Crufts was held indoors over 4 days in early March last year and I have not been aware of any great incidence of people having Covid  which they could have picked up there. That surprised me. I think I would have heard as I am on several dog related FB groups. It might have been that the virus just hadn't started spreading around the country then. 

 

haggis

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1 hour ago, Dr Bob said:

>>You then compare data from track and trace (hee hee hee!)<<

 

I'm afraid that may well be the nub of the problem: no data, because the system for gathering it is utter bobbins (and very expensive bobbins, too).

1 hour ago, ditchcrawler said:

Dont forget the school bus as well

 

1 hour ago, bizzard said:

And that.:)

 

They are supposed to wear face coverings on buses -- all buses. Not having been on a bus at school chuckout time recently, I don't know if they do.

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6 minutes ago, haggis said:

and Crufts was held indoors over 4 days in early March last year and I have not been aware of any great incidence of people having Covid  which they could have picked up there. That surprised me. I think I would have heard as I am on several dog related FB groups. It might have been that the virus just hadn't started spreading around the country then. 

 

haggis

I think that's right - it came to prominence very quickly. Only three weeks before that we were in Spain for a week amongst hundreds of people who were milling about and mingling (Northern Soul festival) and there was no mention of the virus at all.

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12 minutes ago, Arthur Marshall said:

They keep saying that last week, 1 in 100 people had the virus. At one stage at the height of it, it was about 4 in a hundred. As the infection only lasts a couple of weeks, and it's now been rambling about for a year, you would think, on those numbers, just about everyone should have had it by now

I agree with you. I'm not a fan of the 1 in 100 method have 'got it' as there is no measure of how long someone has got it so the same person could show up for weeks. I guess as long as you just look at the change in the numbers it gives you a guide if its better or worse.

Similarly the gov figures on new infections per day is a bit misleading as it only measures the peeps who go to get tested - but is ok to watch day to day as it goes up or down.

For me the key figures are how many new hospital admissions per day as that is specific and I assume accurate, plus the deaths. The number of how many are in hospital is not so good a measure of transmission as some peeps could stay in hospital for a long time.

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6 minutes ago, Athy said:

I think that's right - it came to prominence very quickly. Only three weeks before that we were in Spain for a week amongst hundreds of people who were milling about and mingling (Northern Soul festival) and there was no mention of the virus at all.

 

The first confirmed cases of Coronavirus in the UK was the Chinese family staying in York. They were admitted to hospital on the 29th January. They were subsequently transferred to Newcastle. They had arrived in the UK from Wuhan.

 

It was of course entirely possible there were other cases before then or at the same time as the only testing in the first wave was of hospitalised cases.

 

It's remarkable really that it wasn't being mentioned at that time.

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10 minutes ago, Dr Bob said:

For me the key figures are how many new hospital admissions per day as that is specific and I assume accurate, plus the deaths. The number of how many are in hospital is not so good a measure of transmission as some peeps could stay in hospital for a long time.

 

 

For me, I keep an eye on those needing ventilators. Luckily, that figure is going down, too.

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, The Happy Nomad said:

It's remarkable really that it wasn't being mentioned at that time.

 

There seemed to be some knowledge of C19 VERY early in Dec 2019 & Jan 2020, and certainly prior to the 29th.

 

Looking back I was concerned enough with the news that I bought dozens of FFP3 (medical virus proof) masks from Tool Station and some 5 litre containers of alcohol hand gel around the end of Jan. The masks were removed from the Toolstation website a few days later.

 

I am still using the masks and the gel now.

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As far as I have been able to find out the X:100 figures are straight statements of how the ratio of +ve test v -Ve tests works out for the previous 7 days of tests.  (Well probably not a ratio as I have written it but rather a literal x in every 100 test averaged)

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2 hours ago, Higgs said:

 

 

For me, I keep an eye on those needing ventilators. Luckily, that figure is going down, too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

4 million in total have tested positive and/or admitted to hospital.  Probably at least another 4 million have had it but not aware of it and have had minimal symptons.

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4 hours ago, Dr Bob said:

If that data is not available,  you are not doing your jobs right. 

 

With respect to this pandemic, or any other possible pandemic, they haven't been doing their jobs right since long before this pandemic arrived, and have continued in that vein to date, except for the vaccine and its implementation.

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29 minutes ago, Richard10002 said:

 

With respect to this pandemic, or any other possible pandemic, they haven't been doing their jobs right since long before this pandemic arrived, and have continued in that vein to date, except for the vaccine and its implementation.

That sounds a bit political Richard. You'll have Smelly on telling you about his golf club.

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1 hour ago, Richard10002 said:

 

With respect to this pandemic, or any other possible pandemic, they haven't been doing their jobs right since long before this pandemic arrived, and have continued in that vein to date, except for the vaccine and its implementation.

 

and exactly what would you have done differently?

 

easy to be ever so wise in retrospect ....    :banghead:

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