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phasing out of fossil fuels - programme


magpie patrick

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11 minutes ago, IanD said:

Go and look for yourself ?

 

Took me 10 seconds to find an old answer to this:
 
11th March 2011, 13:02
model/ country. US: 160,000. Australia: 145,000. UK: 125,000. Canada & France: 115,000. Rest of Europe: 105,000. Japan: 70,000.

So not 200,000miles  which  you wrote earlier ?

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2 minutes ago, MartynG said:

So not 200,000miles  which  you wrote earlier ?

As I said, I was lazy and only spent 5 seconds looking, not 10. Answer for the UK is 125k, other countries are more. BEV are likely to have longe lifetimes than ICE. Conclusion is unchanged...

Edited by IanD
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17 minutes ago, IanD said:

As I said, I was lazy and only spent 5 seconds looking, not 10. Answer for the UK is 125k, other countries are more. BEV are likely to have longe lifetimes than ICE. Conclusion is unchanged...

Okay.

But you were wrong about that so maybe the rest is unreliable too .

 

I don't see why cars should last longer because  they have an electric motor. I imagine cars are scrapped because some fault is beyond economical repair . That fault may not be an engine wearing out . 

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18 minutes ago, MartynG said:

Okay.

But you were wrong about that so maybe the rest is unreliable too .

 

I don't see why cars should last longer because  they have an electric motor. I imagine cars are scrapped because some fault is beyond economical repair . That fault may not be an engine wearing out . 

Which "rest" do you think is unreliable? If you doubt something, please provide evidence that it's wrong. If it's valid, I'll agree with you ?

 

Cars are scrapped when something expensive goes wrong or wears out, which is often (not always) the drivetrain, or when maintenance/fuel costs get too high to justify carry on driving it around. These costs are lower for a BEV and the drivetrain is more reliable (evidence from car hire companies, maintenance costs are less than half) so they're likely to have longer lifetimes.

Edited by IanD
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On 13/11/2020 at 08:42, Alan de Enfield said:

 

 

 

By 2050, we want zero emission shipping to be commonplace globally. We want the UK to have taken a proactive role in leading this transition, to be seen globally as a role model, and to have successfully captured a significant share of the economic, environmental and health benefits that will follow.

Alan

It would be appreciated if you could please let me know where   the 2050 maritime plan or other UK government document indicates  that all craft will have to have zero emission propulsion by 2050?

I am looking for evidence , a reference for another forum. Leading the way doesn't necessarily mean a ban on pre-existing means of propulsion.

Genuine question .

 

 

 

.

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1 hour ago, magpie patrick said:

Really? I tend to be the last owner of any car but have only once taken a car to over 200k. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but I doubt it's the average

 

For the record, I don't think it needs to be the average either - 100k will still see an all-electric car have less energy consumption than a fossil fuelled one over the full life cycle. 

 

What I have found is a tendency for it to be non-motive-power parts that give in, on my Golf the steering rack failed, on my Renault the brake pipes corroded, and on my Rover it simply fell apart. The latter is probably predictable, but I thought I'd get more than 140k out of the Golf, and the steering rack is a mileage related failure.

 

1 hour ago, IanD said:

I was lazy and quoted the first number I found. Spending an extra 10 seconds gave numbers for different countries, see above -- 125k for UK, some countries are higher, some lower...

 

All this also ignores that BEV are likely to have longer lifetimes than ICE because there's less to wear out and maintenance/repair/fuel costs are lower -- not a guess, based on facts from the hire car business.

Repmobiles tend to have skyrocket mileage on them, I am fitting a automatic gearbox in a mates mondeo, it's an old ghia x just short of 200k on it and in superb condition. Secondhand gearbox with 50k on it 50 quid from a local breaker and it might do 300k? He loves the car and could afford a Tesla but work has dried up because of covid 

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11 minutes ago, IanD said:

Which "rest" do you think is unreliable? If you doubt something, please provide evidence that it's wrong. If it's valid, I'll agree with you ?

 

Cars are scrapped when something expensive goes wrong or wears out, which is often (not always) the drivetrain, or when maintenance/fuel costs get too high to justify carry on driving it around. These costs are lower for a BEV and the drivetrain is more reliable (evidence from car hire companies) so they're likely to have longer lifetimes.

I think these days its more likely an ECU or ABS or such like expensive component or expensive in labour item that sends a car to the scrap yard  .  Years ago engines were worn out much earlier and body rot was common on cars well under 10 years old. Even heard of cars failing their first MOT on rust .  Those days are long gone. 

 

The same sort of ABS or other component failure  exceeding the market  value of the car would render an electric car beyond economic repair.  Electric cars presumably rely heavily on electronic components just as much a s modern petrol or diesel. Electronic components don't last forever . Suspension, wheels , steering  bodywork and interiors all have a certain life and are no different between electric and petrol/diesel cars  .  So I  don't think the motor being electric necessarily extends the life of a car.

Many people don't want a 10 year old car and I don't see that changing . If it does then the car makers should be worried as they rely on people buying new cars every few years .

 

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39 minutes ago, MartynG said:

Okay.

But you were wrong about that so maybe the rest is unreliable too .

 

I don't see why cars should last longer because  they have an electric motor. I imagine cars are scrapped because some fault is beyond economical repair . That fault may not be an engine wearing out . 

Tesla have plenty of cars with 200 500k on them already, the lack of moving parts is a big step in the right direction 

2 minutes ago, MartynG said:

I think these days its more likely an ECU or ABS or such like expensive component or expensive in labour item that sends a car to the scrap yard  .  Years ago engines were worn out much earlier and body rot was common on cars well under 10 years old. Even heard of cars failing their first MOT on rust .  Those days are long gone. 

 

The same sort of ABS or other component failure  exceeding the market  value of the car would render an electric car beyond economic repair.  Electric cars presumably rely heavily on electronic components just as much a s modern petrol or diesel. Electronic components don't last forever . Suspension, wheels , steering  bodywork and interiors all have a certain life and are no different between electric and petrol/diesel cars  .  So I  don't think the motor being electric necessarily extends the life of a car.

Many people don't want a 10 year old car and I don't see that changing . If it does then the car makers should be worried as they rely on people buying new cars every few years .

 

Germany's car makers are unhappy about Tesla being in their backyard I can assure you 

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5 minutes ago, MartynG said:

I think these days its more likely an ECU or ABS or such like expensive component or expensive in labour item that sends a car to the scrap yard  .  Years ago engines were worn out much earlier and body rot was common on cars well under 10 years old. Even heard of cars failing their first MOT on rust .  Those days are long gone. 

 

The same sort of ABS or other component failure  exceeding the market  value of the car would render an electric car beyond economic repair.  Electric cars presumably rely heavily on electronic components just as much a s modern petrol or diesel. Electronic components don't last forever . Suspension, wheels , steering  bodywork and interiors all have a certain life and are no different between electric and petrol/diesel cars  .  So I  don't think the motor being electric necessarily extends the life of a car.

Many people don't want a 10 year old car and I don't see that changing . If it does then the car makers should be worried as they rely on people buying new cars every few years .

 

You're doing a lot of presuming and assuming. My comments about EV reliability, running costs and lifetimes are based on facts from hire companies and fleet operators. They are a lot simpler than ICE and have a lot fewer things to go wrong in the drivetrain, which is often the expensive failure that leads to a car being scrapped.

Edited by IanD
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Just now, peterboat said:

Tesla have plenty of cars with 200 500k on them already, the lack of moving parts is a big step in the right direction 

Tesla are superb cars but they're not cheap - is there any reason to suppose that the VW e-Golf won't also fail the MOT with a steering rack problem at 140k miles? 

The build quality has to be up to the durability of the drive train, I'd suggest in many modern cars it isn't 

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2 minutes ago, IanD said:

You're doing a lot of presuming and assuming. My comments about EV reliability, running costs and lifetimes are based on facts from hire companies and fleet operators.

Yes Ian Abs has a very easy life in electric cars because brakes are hardly used with regenerative braking 

2 minutes ago, magpie patrick said:

Tesla are superb cars but they're not cheap - is there any reason to suppose that the VW e-Golf won't also fail the MOT with a steering rack problem at 140k miles? 

The build quality has to be up to the durability of the drive train, I'd suggest in many modern cars it isn't 

Sometimes it isnt the price of the part, its the stupidity of the car makers that requires engine and gearbox removal to change a rack!

I suppose I have been lucky we specialised in Jags, Rolls Royce and Aston Martin's Rack are easy to change 

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28 minutes ago, peterboat said:

 

Repmobiles tend to have skyrocket mileage on them, I am fitting a automatic gearbox in a mates mondeo, it's an old ghia x just short of 200k on it and in superb condition. Secondhand gearbox with 50k on it 50 quid from a local breaker and it might do 300k? He loves the car and could afford a Tesla but work has dried up because of covid 

But if he didn't have a mate like you could he afford to keep that old Mondeo on the road

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40 minutes ago, IanD said:

You're doing a lot of presuming and assuming. My comments about EV reliability, running costs and lifetimes are based on facts from hire companies and fleet operators. They are a lot simpler than ICE and have a lot fewer things to go wrong in the drivetrain, which is often the expensive failure that leads to a car being scrapped.

I wouldn't doubt  hire companies like electric  cars since the  downtime for service must be relatively low.

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23 minutes ago, ditchcrawler said:

But if he didn't have a mate like you could he afford to keep that old Mondeo on the road

Yes it's cost very little over the years 10 k service very regularly, tyres, brakes no suspension work and a few wheel bearings 

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7 hours ago, IanD said:

Agreed that BEV are more expensive to buy today (but much cheaper to run), however the price for new EV is reckoned to be the same as ICE by around 2024,

 

Don't forget the "hidden costs" for a BEV - like the installation of a charging point and things like getting a driveway built. Looking round I'd have to find about another 6K on top of the cost of the BEV to allow me to park it off road and charge it.

 

Edited by StephenA
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17 hours ago, IanD said:

try entering "average car mileage before scrapping" into Google, it's really not difficult... ?

 

The point is that so long as the average is much higher than 50k miles (which it is) the exact number doesn't matter, EVs win.

I can read too, and that was exactly my point -- *always* check where a "report" came from, very often it's biased (not difficult to do with cherry-picking of numbers -- not that I'm saying they did that, but they have form...) or at the very least funded by companies with vested interests.

 

In this case, you could say the vested interest is to get people to carry on buying their ICE cars instead of Teslas... ?

Depends on the reason for scrapping - unless it is because the engine has expired then the comparison is not valid as the rest of the vehicle is (I assume) much the same - certainly not different because of motive power, at last as a first order effect.

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51 minutes ago, Mike Todd said:

Depends on the reason for scrapping - unless it is because the engine has expired then the comparison is not valid as the rest of the vehicle is (I assume) much the same - certainly not different because of motive power, at last as a first order effect.

I have 2 electric vehicles and they are very different from ICE vehicles. Large amounts of very expensive problematic components aren't there, I would expect electric vehicles to do double or treble the mileage of an ICE vehicle 

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20 hours ago, peterboat said:

I was in Goa in 2014, I saw  a very badly damaged hindustan ambassador repaired by a team of guys, it was amazing to see it when finished. I also bought a new Bajaj RE4S Tuk Tuk which I still have, happy days and a country that I can't wait to return to 

Make sure you walk or swim when you go back old sport. Must use any nasty fossil fueled methods of transport such as aeroplanes for instance ?

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3 hours ago, peterboat said:

I have 2 electric vehicles and they are very different from ICE vehicles. Large amounts of very expensive problematic components aren't there, I would expect electric vehicles to do double or treble the mileage of an ICE vehicle 

That assertion needs some evidence. ICE technology is now pretty mature and that usually brings reliability etc. I also assume that BEVs are not without some innovative control technology as well. That said, I suspect most trading of privately owned cars occurs because of factors other than malfunction of the engine. I would not be surprised if the trading of fleet cars uses a different algorithm.

 

The average annual car mileage is around 10,000. That is 20 years to reach 200,000. As a result, any car reaching that now is very old technology and it also shows how long it will take to provide meaningful statistics to make a comparison.

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2 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

Make sure you walk or swim when you go back old sport. Must use any nasty fossil fueled methods of transport such as aeroplanes for instance ?

I am converting the Tuk Tuk to electric with solar panels and driving there ?

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2 hours ago, Mike Todd said:

That assertion needs some evidence. ICE technology is now pretty mature and that usually brings reliability etc. I also assume that BEVs are not without some innovative control technology as well. That said, I suspect most trading of privately owned cars occurs because of factors other than malfunction of the engine. I would not be surprised if the trading of fleet cars uses a different algorithm.

 

The average annual car mileage is around 10,000. That is 20 years to reach 200,000. As a result, any car reaching that now is very old technology and it also shows how long it will take to provide meaningful statistics to make a comparison.

Google high mileage Tesla's, and whilst the average mileage might be 10k lots of company cars do 50k plus a year  which makes up for little old ladies doing 1k per year. 

As for modern cars and reliability, unfortunately some of it is a myth, on diesel cars all the equipment to try and clean them up was the equipment that was least reliable, and very expensive to repair. Modern petrol cars have ever smaller engines with turbos to produce more power and clean up emissions these are problematic as well, Google eco boost engines. 

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Pardon me if it's already been posted here or elsewhere, but there seem to be some positive noises coming from the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for the Waterways:

https://www.waterways.org.uk/about-us/news/electric-charging-points-gain-support

 

3 key issues:

  • the need to invest in infrastructure to deliver more electric charging points across the system;
  • a proposed boat engine scrappage scheme to encourage conversion of existing boats;  and
  • a move towards greater distribution and use of biofuels. This step is favoured, over the current proposal by HMRC and HM Treasury to move from red diesel to white for inland waterways craft.

Here's the letter from the APPGW to the Chancellor:

 

image.png.6b022fe9dca41988ee18db4462a98a60.png

 

image.png.c3b8ced177cf98ebf9c11689a08261df.png

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On 29/11/2020 at 18:45, MartynG said:

Okay.

But you were wrong about that so maybe the rest is unreliable too .

 

I don't see why cars should last longer because  they have an electric motor. I imagine cars are scrapped because some fault is beyond economical repair . That fault may not be an engine wearing out . 

 

Indeed, i was discussing the economical life of modern cars with the proprietor of my local garage when picking my csr up from its MoT, because I hope to keep it until BEV's have dropped in price and range and charging infrastructure have increased.

 

He said electrical/electronic component failure writes most modern cars off at anything from 7 years old onwards.

 

BEV's will have even more electronics thsn ICE's...

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2 minutes ago, cuthound said:

 

Indeed, i was discussing the economical life of modern cars with the proprietor of my local garage when picking my csr up from its MoT, because I hope to keep it until BEV's have dropped in price and range and charging infrastructure have increased.

 

He said electrical/electronic component failure writes most modern cars off at anything from 7 years old onwards.

 

BEV's will have even more electronics thsn ICE's...

BEVs have bigger higher-power but actually much simpler electronics (and the things they control) than modern ICE -- compared to a modern ECU (or several) with all the components and actuators in the powertrain that it drives and controls (ignition, engine, starter/alternator, injectors, gearbox, fuel system...), often all from different suppliers with complex connections and many points of failure, a BEV powertrain is blessedly simple ?

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Nowt to worry about anyway it seems. Mr google has just told me that out of 31 million cars in the UK as of last month over 164,ooo were proper electric the rest were ice models with a few things called hybrids ( ice cars with electric  motors? ) so maybe " This time next year Rodney " ?

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