Canal re-opening

[Wanderer Vagabond]

6 hours ago, Galilee said:

We're moving our boat out of a marina tomorrow and we're going to stay overnight and move it again on Sunday. If it costs me a £100 fine, then frankly that's not much more than keeping it in the marina is going to cost me.

Who is going to charge you a £100 fine? CRT can't and I haven't seen any plod patrolling the towpaths, you are probably at a greater risk of being hit by a meterorite

[Rob-M]

4 minutes ago, Arthur Marshall said:

Anyway, looks like a July reopening unless Boris has cocked it up again and we're all back in lockdown.

Looking at a lot of the hire boat sites they seem to be aiming for the beginning of July for restarting bookings.

[Machpoint005]

1 hour ago, Arthur Marshall said:

Anyway, looks like a July reopening unless until we find out that Boris has cocked it up again and we're all back in lockdown.

 

Minor syntax error there, Arthur!

 

 

[Jen-in-Wellies]

5 hours ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

I've just checked and it's excess deaths in which we lead Europe (Belgium included). This metric seems to be accepted as the most useful. It's hardly surprising that the UK figure is so high, given the way Covid-19-positive patients were being dischargedfrom hospitals into care homes without telling anybody.

 

 

From the analysis of excess deaths in a number of countries carried out by the Financial Times. Number of deaths being recorded - number that would normally be seen at that time of year for the UK and a number of other countries. The FT is not noted as a paper that will play fast and loose with statistics, or be naturally hostile to a Conservative government.

When there is a temptation to record COVID-19 deaths as something else, then excess deaths is probably the best metric for country to country comparison. Covers not only COVID-19 deaths, but others, like people avoiding getting that weird chest pain checked out because they don't want to bother those busy doctors.

People are always talking Britain down, but here is something that we are world beaters at!

 

Considering a few weeks cruising at some point this summer, but likely to leave it till later as I can see us going in to Lock Down part two in the not to distant future.

Jen

[Alan de Enfield]

4 minutes ago, Jen-in-Wellies said:

Considering a few weeks cruising at some point this summer, but likely to leave it till later as I can see us going in to Lock Down part two in the not to distant future.

Jen

SAGE member advising the Government suggest we are too early to lift restrictions.

He said this was because the sheer number of COVID-19 cases - known as the incidence - continued to stay at a relatively high level, despite the fall in the reproduction number.

Professor Edmunds said many scientists "would prefer to see the incidence driven down to lower levels, because that then means that we have fewer cases occurring before we relaxed the measures".

Yet he said the decision about where to set the number of cases was "clearly a political decision, not a scientific decision", because there was a trade-off between "the impact of the disease" and "the impact of the lockdown on wider society".

Professor Edmunds added that a further risk was posed by easing the lockdown measures "with an untested test and trace system".

Yet, he said, even an effective contact tracing scheme would not reduce the spread of the virus enough to make social distancing unnecessary.

"We cannot relax our guard by very much at all," he said.

 

With a true 8000 cases per day (not the Governments stated 2000 / 2500) it will overload the Track & Trace and we will have 1000's going back into full lockdown

[Richard10002]

6 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

SAGE member advising the Government suggest we are too early to lift restrictions.

He said this was because the sheer number of COVID-19 cases - known as the incidence - continued to stay at a relatively high level, despite the fall in the reproduction number.

Professor Edmunds said many scientists "would prefer to see the incidence driven down to lower levels, because that then means that we have fewer cases occurring before we relaxed the measures".

Yet he said the decision about where to set the number of cases was "clearly a political decision, not a scientific decision", because there was a trade-off between "the impact of the disease" and "the impact of the lockdown on wider society".

Professor Edmunds added that a further risk was posed by easing the lockdown measures "with an untested test and trace system".

Yet, he said, even an effective contact tracing scheme would not reduce the spread of the virus enough to make social distancing unnecessary.

"We cannot relax our guard by very much at all," he said.

 

With a true 8000 cases per day (not the Governments stated 2000 / 2500) it will overload the Track & Trace and we will have 1000's going back into full lockdown

Like I've been discussing with furness, Sir Ian Boyd says that Sage give the government advice and information, and government do with it what they will. The above seems to confirm what he was saying.

[ditchcrawler]

Whenever I have been in a position of making decisions I have taken advice from others, depending on their point of view that advice would often conflict, at the end of the day I had to make my decision on what I had heard. without doubt at least one of them would say I didn't follow advice whatever decision I made

[Arthur Marshall]

It probably won't overload the track and trace system, because it won't work.  Untrained people on the minimum wage in call centres are not going to get people to pass on accurate information, nor are they going to be able to trace the contacts, or persuade them that they're not some scammer wanting their details. The famous government app doesn't work. The woman in charge has no medical knowledge and her only known bit of IT expertise is overseeing a massive data leak. As a system, it's on a par with the PPE scandal. The fact remains that the economy has to be restarted, and if a few thousand more old codgers in care homes, a couple of hundred more health workers and innumerable bus drivers die, nobody cares very much. People, as everybody knows, are replaceable, they come free, people make them for fun.  Your dividends, however, are dependent on businesses functioning, as, in fact, is the NHS, the benefit system and your food supply.

[Oddjob]

9 hours ago, Goliath said:

easiest way to determine (assume) whether it’s a continuous cruiser or not is the shyte and coal bags on top. 

I am a CC and don't have shyte or coal on top of my boat lol, however CC guysI see  all seem to have not seen a barber for decades and have scragging ponytails. LOL

[frangar]

Having started to plan our boating it seems Harecastle is only opening on Mon & Fri mornings until 8th June at least and you have to book and Anderton is closed ufn...which is somewhat irritating...oh and you have to book foxton & Watford. I’m hoping this all gets back to normal fairly soon! 

[Richard10002]

2 hours ago, ditchcrawler said:

Whenever I have been in a position of making decisions I have taken advice from others, depending on their point of view that advice would often conflict, at the end of the day I had to make my decision on what I had heard. without doubt at least one of them would say I didn't follow advice whatever decision I made

If that's a reply to me.... I definitely don't disagree with you, and you seem to be agreeing with what Ian Boyd has stated.

[Alan de Enfield]

I beginning to doubt that the lockdown (and canals) will be open for very long.

The scientific advice is getting much more prominence and the release of the minutes of the SAGE meetings can only be so that the Scientists don't 'get the blame' when it all goes pear shaped.

 

 

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the government, has published details of its confidential meetings.

It includes minutes of 34 Sage sessions, going back to 22 January, and a series of scientific reports.

They show one Sage meeting on 23 April estimated there would be only 1,000 cases per day by mid-May.

Instead, estimates by the Office for National Statistics suggest there are currently 8,000 cases per day in England alone. Those figures do not include cases in care homes or hospitals.

 

The Sage documents warned there would be "little time" to re-impose stricter lockdown measures if the infection rate started to creep up again.

The documents also showed only half of people isolate for seven days when they become sick.

Papers revealed that Sage advice given to the government in April said it was "likely" the infection rate - the R-number - would go above one (the point at which the epidemic starts to grow again) if non-essential shops were reopened.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

[mrsmelly]

14 hours ago, Arthur Marshall said:

Anyway, looks like a July reopening unless Boris has cocked it up again and we're all back in lockdown.

Its not about cocking up again, its very simple maths. Any numpty be they a top scientist or any one else knows lockdown is the way to save lives. All the whingers on here, even they know its the SAFE way to do things. Those same whingers will be crying poverty after lockdown, we cant have it both ways. Lock down for three years and all food etc delivered, no one allowed out etc etc and then we all come out again and lovely innitt, no virus. Who is going to pay for it and with no economy how are they? The peeps on here with a mortgage are they going to live in a tent as the house will have gone? Those people living off state pensions, how will they be funded. No economy, no tax, no money to pay out again. Furlough is paid out by the government and where will they get the money from to pay the borrowing back? So do we wait 3 years? another 6 months? another 3 months? even in another 3 months you can say goodbye to millions of jobs. Even opening up on 4th of july as hoped will be far too late for many. When furlough ends so will many jobs, even more if we dont get the economy back and very very soon.

[frangar]

We need to just get back to work and back to some normality...for both the sake of peoples mental health and economics. We will have to live with risks just like we live with many other risks in life. 

[Arthur Marshall]

31 minutes ago, mrsmelly said:

Its not about cocking up again, its very simple maths. Any numpty be they a top scientist or any one else knows lockdown is the way to save lives. All the whingers on here, even they know its the SAFE way to do things. Those same whingers will be crying poverty after lockdown, we cant have it both ways. 

Sorry, it is about cocking it up.  No-one is arguing that the economy has to restart, the cockups are everything else - too late the initial lockdown, no preparation for PPE. No consideration for care homes or discharge of infected people from hospital, no testing, no preparation for testing,  outsourcing tests to untried private companies instead of thd NhS, no working app, trying to invent one when a proven working one existed. No training for track and trace , that in itself outsourced to call centres. That'll do for starters, plus known inaccurate info endlessly given out with loss of credibility.  There's no point to another lockdown, but if the Mail starts screaming for it that's what we'll get - that's the cockup I mean.  Everything has been done too late and in a panic with no planning or direction, and there's no indication that that'll change. The PM before the committee this week didn't even have a clue what his own rules or guidelines were, nor scientific advice  nor any meaningful stats. I'd love to say it was all a Tory conspiracy to do this that or the other, but none of them have the brains to conspire, it's just all panic reaction to events or public pressure.  That's the cockup, and that's why none of it makes any real sense and why we have to take responsibility for our own behaviour rather than relying on "advice". Rant over...

When the system opens up, I'm off with a month's food on board, all I'll need to buy will be bread and milk... I'll risk that.

[MoominPapa]

11 hours ago, frangar said:

Having started to plan our boating it seems Harecastle is only opening on Mon & Fri mornings until 8th June at least and you have to book and Anderton is closed ufn...which is somewhat irritating...oh and you have to book foxton & Watford. I’m hoping this all gets back to normal fairly soon! 

Even if you could get down Anderton, the Weaver locks are only open for a few hours three times a week, and need 24h notice.

 

MP.

 

[frangar]

34 minutes ago, MoominPapa said:

Even if you could get down Anderton, the Weaver locks are only open for a few hours three times a week, and need 24h notice.

 

MP.

 

You don’t need a lock to nip to Waitrose! 

[Flyboy]

55 minutes ago, Arthur Marshall said:

 

When the system opens up, I'm off with a month's food on board, all I'll need to buy will be bread and milk... I'll risk that.

I thought hoarding  food was anti social and selfish just like it was at the start of the pandemic. If we all do it there will be shortages like before so please don't.

[Mad Harold]

13 hours ago, Arthur Marshall said:

. The fact remains that the economy has to be restarted, and if a few thousand more old codgers in care homes, a couple of hundred more health workers and innumerable bus drivers die, nobody cares very much. People, as everybody knows, are replaceable, they come free, people make them for fun.  Your dividends, however, are dependent on businesses functioning, as, in fact, is the NHS, the benefit system and your food supply.

That's a rather scary opinion Arthur!

But probably true.

Edited May 30, 2020 by Mad Harold

[beerbeerbeerbeerbeer]

12 hours ago, Oddjob said:

I am a CC and don't have shyte or coal on top of my boat lol, however CC guysI see  all seem to have not seen a barber for decades and have scragging ponytails. LOL

?

The first thing I did in the period of lock up was clear the top of shyte  and have a good sort out. 
And repaint the top. 

 

Aint got the pony tail , but I think you’ve prompted me to get the clippers out ?

 

[beerbeerbeerbeerbeer]

1 hour ago, Arthur Marshall said:

Rant over...

When the system opens up, I'm off with a month's food on board, all I'll need to buy will be bread and milk... I'll risk that.

Rye bread from Aldi keeps for months and so will powdered milk, or go without either for a better diet. 
 

enjoy 

[beerbeerbeerbeerbeer]

12 hours ago, frangar said:

Having started to plan our boating it seems Harecastle is only opening on Mon & Fri mornings until 8th June at least and you have to book and Anderton is closed ufn...which is somewhat irritating...oh and you have to book foxton & Watford. I’m hoping this all gets back to normal fairly soon! 

My dilemma’s whether to wait for the Standedge to open or take the long route around via the Rochdale hoping the stoppages clear as I travel. And then there’s a chance I might get stuck again when restrictions come in because of a lack of water. 

 

[peterboat]

2 hours ago, Arthur Marshall said:

Sorry, it is about cocking it up.  No-one is arguing that the economy has to restart, the cockups are everything else - too late the initial lockdown, no preparation for PPE. No consideration for care homes or discharge of infected people from hospital, no testing, no preparation for testing,  outsourcing tests to untried private companies instead of thd NhS, no working app, trying to invent one when a proven working one existed. No training for track and trace , that in itself outsourced to call centres. That'll do for starters, plus known inaccurate info endlessly given out with loss of credibility.  There's no point to another lockdown, but if the Mail starts screaming for it that's what we'll get - that's the cockup I mean.  Everything has been done too late and in a panic with no planning or direction, and there's no indication that that'll change. The PM before the committee this week didn't even have a clue what his own rules or guidelines were, nor scientific advice  nor any meaningful stats. I'd love to say it was all a Tory conspiracy to do this that or the other, but none of them have the brains to conspire, it's just all panic reaction to events or public pressure.  That's the cockup, and that's why none of it makes any real sense and why we have to take responsibility for our own behaviour rather than relying on "advice". Rant over...

When the system opens up, I'm off with a month's food on board, all I'll need to buy will be bread and milk... I'll risk that.

Long life milk Arthur and bake your own bread, water is the issue really 

[Machpoint005]

2 hours ago, Arthur Marshall said:

I'd love to say it was all a Tory conspiracy to do this that or the other, but none of them have the brains to conspire, it's just all panic reaction to events or public pressure.  That's the cockup, and that's why none of it makes any real sense and why we have to take responsibility for our own behaviour rather than relying on "advice".

 

Trouble is, even if the government does listen to and act upon the scientific advice, large numbers of the population -- even larger numbers since the Rose Garden whitewash -- will no longer trust them and will ignore the rules. That is the time-bomb Johnson has lit under all of us. 

[peterboat]

4 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

Trouble is, even if the government does listen to and act upon the scientific advice, large numbers of the population -- even larger numbers since the Rose Garden whitewash -- will no longer trust them and will ignore the rules. That is the time-bomb Johnson has lit under all of us. 

Ian if you are under 65 and in good health you have a very slim chance of dying, people are willing to take the chance because they fed up of lockdown.