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Thinking positive...when are you hoping to go out on your boat again?


Philip

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Thinking on the optimistic, when are we hoping to be able go out cruising on the canals or to start hiring again? In other words when do we expect or hope the ban on non-essential travel will be lifted? I know full well there are more important matters, but still no harm in wondering when we can return to hobbies and past times.

 

Think we can forget pubs being open within the next 3 months (probably longer), but it won't be too difficult to apply sensible social distancing measures just by going out on the canals, so is it optimistic to think there'll be a green light say by the end of May?

Edited by Philip
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22 minutes ago, AndrewIC said:

If the pubs are still shut in 3 months then most of them won't be re-opening. Along with much else.

Why not? The buildings will still be there and likely there will still be enough people who want to drink in pubs to make it profitable. The existing businesses may have gone bankrupt, but new ones will be formed to buy the assets at low prices and re-open them.

 

MP

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51 minutes ago, AndrewIC said:

If the pubs are still shut in 3 months then most of them won't be re-opening. Along with much else.

That is sadly quite likely,but may hopefully re-open with new management.

A pub's success or failure is due to a good landlord or manager.One of my favourite days out is a cruise up the cut to a little local's pub for a lunchtime pint.The beer was always good,and the beer garden overlooks the canal.

I hope it re-opens again with no changes,but I am not optimistic.

 

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3 minutes ago, Mad Harold said:

That is sadly quite likely,but may hopefully re-open with new management.

A pub's success or failure is due to a good landlord or manager.One of my favourite days out is a cruise up the cut to a little local's pub for a lunchtime pint.The beer was always good,and the beer garden overlooks the canal.

I hope it re-opens again with no changes,but I am not optimistic.

 

No matter how good one is as a manager of a business, with no income for several months, and bills to pay, it seems likely that even thriving pubs and restaurants will go under. The hospitality sector does seem likely to be the most hard hit, and will lead to large changes in society.

Then of course, the financial sharks will arrive and buy up cheap premises and reopen, leaving previous owners in the sh1t.

Banks are unlikely to be the good guys, yet again.

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1 hour ago, AndrewIC said:

If the pubs are still shut in 3 months then most of them won't be re-opening. Along with much else.

Many tennants will not recover from this. Many tenancies live hand to mouth even in good times, a good tennancy will probably make a come back. Free house ownership will depend entirely on the circumstance of each pub, for example if fully owned or not. The big managed houses owned by breweries will survive, some pub cos will go under which may not be a bad thing as some are awful to work for.

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3 hours ago, Philip said:

Thinking on the optimistic, when are we hoping to be able go out cruising on the canals or to start hiring again? In other words when do we expect or hope the ban on non-essential travel will be lifted? I know full well there are more important matters, but still no harm in wondering when we can return to hobbies and past times.

 

Think we can forget pubs being open within the next 3 months (probably longer), but it won't be too difficult to apply sensible social distancing measures just by going out on the canals, so is it optimistic to think there'll be a green light say by the end of May?

Sadly,  I think you are being a little too optimistic.  On one hand, it's possible to go on an extended cruise while social distancing and with good hygiene re. fomites at locks etc.  So it might be seen as a reasonable thing to do.  However, it really doesn't go along with the request for essential travel only.  Until the government relax that, I can't see how CRT can relax anything either.  Unlike pretty much everywhere else in Europe, our incidence of new cases has plateaued and hasn't started to reduce in any significant way.  The reasons for this are pretty obvious but are best discussed on other threads.  In any case, until we can drastically reduce our incidence of new cases, it would be a highly reckless government who would be relaxing the rules any time soon.

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4 hours ago, Philip said:

Thinking on the optimistic, when are we hoping to be able go out cruising on the canals or to start hiring again? 

As regards the hire industry, Hoseasons have just changed their new bookings policy- they were until recently accepting new bookings for holidays after 4th June, but have now changed this to 15th June.

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4 hours ago, robtheplod said:

Did I hear pubs with gardens might be able to open?

Is transmitting  virus via  the beer glass or bottle less likely if you drink the beer  in a garden?

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42 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

I would love to think it will be After 1st August but I wouldn't put money on it.

 

The next government review is 7th May . But not really expecting that to result in any great change  unless the death rate drops off rapidly - which doesn't seem to be happening yet.

However a lot can happen in a  week or two so lets keep an open mind.

 

It isn't possible to predict the future but I  think there will be restrictions  on social distancing for more than a year.  I don't expect to be returning to office based work this year. Customs such as shaking hands will become a thing of the past . 

 

Relaxation of regulations has to happen at some point and freedom of movement while maintaining social distancing  is perhaps the easiest one to trial.

 

 

 

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Surprised to see comments that the numbers are stagnant; it might be slow progress but both the positive test numbers/percentage and numbers of people dying each day are clearly significantly lower than 2-3 weeks ago. 

 

Not advocating easing things just yet, but if we follow the trajectory of Spain, Italy, Germany and France, and there's no reason why we shouldn't as the vast majority of people are still adhering to the restrictions and don't even want the lockdown lifted yet, then things should look much better in another month - possibly less.

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2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Surprised to see comments that the numbers are stagnant; it might be slow progress but both the positive test numbers/percentage and numbers of people dying each day are clearly significantly lower than 2-3 weeks ago. 

 

Not advocating easing things just yet, but if we follow the trajectory of Spain, Italy, Germany and France, and there's no reason why we shouldn't as the vast majority of people are still adhering to the restrictions and don't even want the lockdown lifted yet, then things should look much better in another month - possibly less.

Just remember that yesterday and todays number are 'incomplete weekend numbers'.

Yes there is a reduction but I bet Tuesdays and Wednesdays are considerably higher.

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8 hours ago, Rob-M said:

Not according to the health minister on the BBC this morning. His comment was don't believe everything you read in the paper.

Well we cant believe a word that comes out of his mouth so that sounds a fair swap.

4 hours ago, MartynG said:

Is transmitting  virus via  the beer glass or bottle less likely if you drink the beer  in a garden?

Only if you drink someone elses beer.

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I'm expecting an easing of movement from the end of May, with an emphasis on people attempting to belong to single bubble, a slight expansion from a single household.  It is not ideal but the economy will not survive without some easing soon.  imho.  Then I'll be able to visit my boat!  As for cruising, that should be possible in quieter areas, with boats under 2M in length not being allowed.

Edited by system 4-50
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39 minutes ago, matty40s said:

 

Only if you drink someone elses beer.

Risk to the customer  from picking up the glass that has been handled by the  bar staff.

Risk to the bar staff from the empty glass.

 

 

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10 hours ago, rustynewbery said:

The Anchor at High Offley will still be there and a right little gem it is too

Well I hope you are right, but I wouldn't be so sure. We were the only customers in there on a Sunday evening in August last year. And no visiting caravans or tents in the field behind either.

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23 hours ago, Philip said:

Thinking on the optimistic, when are we hoping to be able go out cruising on the canals or to start hiring again? In other words when do we expect or hope the ban on non-essential travel will be lifted? I know full well there are more important matters, but still no harm in wondering when we can return to hobbies and past times.

 

Think we can forget pubs being open within the next 3 months (probably longer), but it won't be too difficult to apply sensible social distancing measures just by going out on the canals, so is it optimistic to think there'll be a green light say by the end of May?

No harm in being optimistic - a good topic as I for one would like to see what others in our little bubble think

 

I have been working on 1st June for a number of weeks now - partly to maintain my sanity as I do need a target to work to

 

IMHO this is still relevant as the country will be irreversibly bankrupt by then, the divorce rate will be on the up, as will suicides?, and there will be 50% fewer Pubs remaining??.

 

The key is getting the kids back to school - then people can go back work without child care issues.

 

Might slip by a month but I don't see it - I'm sure Boris will tell us something we can all work with this week (NOT a political comment) I just think it is accepted at last that we need facts and direction............

 

 

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Trying to realistic and logical on this.

 

I think end of May is optimistic to allow all non essential travel, and visits to second homes which is what is needed for the use of leisure boats.  On the second homes one we have seen that Wales have strengthened their rules on that, so if the UK follows suit that may stop leisure boat use for a very long time.  
 

I think by end of May the important non essential travel to let people see family and friends in small gatherings will need to be allowed.  I can also see some relaxation by the end of May to get more businesses open, like more shops.  For pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc, probably a lot longer and not this year.

 

If the long term ban on second home use is limited to Wales, then there could be some hope for boating in England, for the sake of argument lets say in July.

 

As the govenment has said they will always be lead by the science, then you would think that would be gated on the take up of the app, so you need the time through June to see how that goes.  I can see the mantra being changed to “download the app, protect the NHS, save lives”.  Hopefully people will take that seriously and the, I think, 12%, with old phones that do not support Bluetooth LE will be upgrading.  As long as they get the OS changes needed to make bluetooth LE work in the background (which was the flaw with the South Korea app) then use of the app should be painless and if it follows the proposed spec there are few privacy concerns.  The app, along with testing which hopefully there will be there with soon, should be the key.

 

Of course it will probably pan out totally differently, either way.

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