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Good time to buy to buy a basic narrow boat - yes or no?


Jacsprat

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It also depends on whether the average you are talking about is mean, median or mode, though I’m sure you will already know that. If talking mode, in your final example 2000 people would be of average responsibility and 1000 above it, nobody below average. Same would apply for median.

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The different meanings of average and the examples Alan gave are very much open to people cherry picking the “average” they choose to quote and how they describe it, to meet their ends. Average, without more information on how it has been calculated, is pretty meaningless. At worst, it can be misleading.

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2 minutes ago, MartynG said:

Mean

The mean is the usual average, so add them together and then divide by the number of 'units'.:

(13 + 18 + 13 + 14 + 13 + 16 + 14 + 21 + 13) ÷ 9 = 15

 

As you can see 6 out of 9 (66.66r%) are below the mean, and only 3 (33.33r%) are above the mean.

 

It is incorrect to say that 50% will be below the average / mean.

The incidence of number of units being 50% either side of the mean is very small (unless the numbers are rigged|)

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4 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

The mean is the usual average, so add them together and then divide by the number of 'units'.:

(13 + 18 + 13 + 14 + 13 + 16 + 14 + 21 + 13) ÷ 9 = 15

 

As you can see 6 out of 9 (66.66r%) are below the mean, and only 3 (33.33r%) are above the mean.

 

It is incorrect to say that 50% will be below the average / mean.

The incidence of number of units being 50% either side of the mean is very small (unless the numbers are rigged|)

The mean is the most commonly used average but not the only one. Your mean is 15. The mode (most common value) is 13. The median ( middle value when all lined up in order) is 14. Three different results, all are referred to as “averages”. Without defining which average you are using it can be pretty meaningless, especially where the population  does not fit the normal standard deviation MartynG refers to above. In the normal standard deviation the different averages will all be the same or similar. If it’s not as standard, like Alan’s examples, the different types of average will be different. Some people will choose the type of average to quote that fits their argument or agenda.

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Moving away from the stats. From my experience the vast majority of people are behaving responsibly. It’s a pity the actions of the minority who aren’t will have a disproportionate effect. We get infected and infect less than one more person, they (the people who aren’t responsible) get infected and infect how many other people. The average (sorry) without lockdown was around 2-3, but who knows. 

Edited by Ianws
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26 minutes ago, Ianws said:

The mean is the most commonly used average but not the only one. Your mean is 15. The mode (most common value) is 13. The median ( middle value when all lined up in order) is 14. Three different results, all are referred to as “averages”. Without defining which average you are using it can be pretty meaningless, especially where the population  does not fit the normal standard deviation MartynG refers to above. In the normal standard deviation the different averages will all be the same or similar. If it’s not as standard, like Alan’s examples, the different types of average will be different. Some people will choose the type of average to quote that fits their argument or agenda.

Indeed it is AND is the one quoted by MartynG (post #81) as the one he 'used' to say that 50% of people were below 'average'

 

(He subsequently amended it to read 'Arithmetic mean')

 

My original example (post #75) used 'mean'.

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9 minutes ago, Ianws said:

Moving away from the stats. From my experience the vast majority of people are behaving responsibly. It’s a pity the actions of the minority who aren’t will have a disproportionate effect. We get infected and infect less than one more person, they (the people who aren’t responsible) get infected and infect how many other people. The average (sorry) without lockdown was around 2-3, but who knows. 

Its always been the same, the majority always suffer for the minority, They stifle our lives with continuous  law making, especially motoring laws, Greedily buying mountains of food, not distancing themselves ect ect ect, it goes on and on.    But it'll never change.

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19 minutes ago, Ianws said:

Moving away from the stats. From my experience the vast majority of people are behaving responsibly. It’s a pity the actions of the minority who aren’t will have a disproportionate effect. We get infected and infect less than one more person, they (the people who aren’t responsible) get infected and infect how many other people. The average (sorry) without lockdown was around 2-3, but who knows. 

I think (unless somebody proves me wrong) that we need some people to spread the infection. 

Ideally, the spread rate should be such that the total number of people needing hospitalisation = total number of beds we have made available to treat ppl.

This will ensure that the whole population gets infected the fastest possible time, without needless death.

Any slower, we lose due to lack of economic activity.(long lockdown period)

Any faster, we will have needless deaths.

 

Edited by restlessnomad
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oooh what an exciting thread. ?

 

Most people think of the arithmetic mean when quoting an average (add 'em up and divide by the sample size). Its pretty good but very vulnerable to "outliers" especially on small samples. If you put ten people in a room and work out the average salary, and one of those people is Bill Gates, then you don't get a good result.

 

The median (middle value) is a Much better measure in most cases but not used nearly enough. Serious statistic people use it a lot.

and half the sample really will be above/below average if the median is used.

 

The mode is a bit daft.

 

When I was at skool the local paper was horrified that 50% of pupils at the local secondary modern school had below average intelligence, and suggested this was because it was next door to a factory making lead acid batteries. As the 11 plus had already taken away the brighter kids that 50% was a damn good result and would suggest that lead actually improves intelligence ?

 

..................Dave

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1 hour ago, Ianws said:

It also depends on whether the average you are talking about is mean, median or mode, though I’m sure you will already know that. If talking mode, in your final example 2000 people would be of average responsibility and 1000 above it, nobody below average. Same would apply for median.

 

And the statistics tell you that for small samples, as in the examples in this thread, the mean, median and mode can differ significantly, but as the sample size increases, the 3 different means converge, so at a national population level, the number of people below average whatever will indeed be pretty close to 50%.

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The original post on this just referred to people below average responsibility. If that’s a mean average then 50% of people would be below. Responsibility is qualitative rather than quantitative, so can I define it a different way. Suppose it is the % of occasions people follow the current guidance. A lot of people on here are adhering to it 100%, some people might be pushing it slightly at times with a good reason, a small minority don’t care less. Fortunately, that’s my observation of the general population, not that I’m out that much, just essential shopping and key work I can’t do from home. I doesn’t seem to me this is a normal distribution with half of the population digressing to a greater or lesser degree. A small proportion are a massive problem and the vast majority are taking heed and following the guidance.

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57 minutes ago, Ianws said:

A small proportion are a massive problem and the vast majority are taking heed and following the guidance.

'Massive' problem? My suspicion is that the bigger problems are firstly that not enough people are spreading it (look how the number of suspected cases is dropping which shows that there is no problem, massive or otherwise https://covid.joinzoe.com/data ) and secondly that people who could perfectly well be working (and indeed should be working in order to spread it a bit) are in fact taking advantage of HM Government's subsidised 80% holiday because they can't be bothered to go to work.

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5 minutes ago, Paddle said:

'Massive' problem? My suspicion is that the bigger problems are firstly that not enough people are spreading it (look how the number of suspected cases is dropping which shows that there is no problem, massive or otherwise https://covid.joinzoe.com/data ) and secondly that people who could perfectly well be working (and indeed should be working in order to spread it a bit) are in fact taking advantage of HM Government's subsidised 80% holiday because they can't be bothered to go to work.

Wow, did they dig you up from under Trumps garden....

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On 18/04/2020 at 13:42, Jacsprat said:

Haha!! Just tried that. She says she has to go through the broker - contract and all that. 

Maybe time to reveal that the boat I'm after is a very tidy little 'atypical' Springer. I know, I know - it's a SPRINGER, but I believe it's been well'maintained and well-loved and will get me on the water safely. Good low-budget starter. It'll be a leap of faith if I go through with it (IF it will be possible to go through with it!), but it's not a huge spend. Worth the jump I think!

 

IMHO She doesn't have to go through the broker - she just has to (quite rightly) accept she must pay him.

On 19/04/2020 at 20:51, Jacsprat said:

Well, I KNOW its had some recent overplating along with a hull survey just before the boat went into brokerage. Definitely a risky purchase, but I've got a very good feeling generally. Will get a full independent survey once we get past this 'hump'. Would love a more robust brand, but but but! Thanks! 

 

you should be able to get info as to who did the plating then and poss the opportunity to talk to the surveyor.........

 

Got you back on track now...............?

Edited by Halsey
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8 hours ago, matty40s said:

Wow, did they dig you up from under Trumps garden....

That's the first time I've been compared with Trump! Not quite sure what you have a problem with, or why you think I'm like some half-witted American. :)

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8 hours ago, Paddle said:

......... taking advantage of HM Government's subsidised 80% holiday because they can't be bothered to go to work.

I think you will find the majority of people who have been furloughed  due to  their employers  decision,  not of their  own choice.

6 minutes ago, Paddle said:

That's the first time I've been compared with Trump! Not quite sure what you have a problem with, or why you think I'm like some half-witted American. :)

That would be because of your statements in post Nr 92.

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16 minutes ago, The Welsh Cruiser said:

Was your offer accepted? What's your budget? My 35ft, well maintained but not a huge amount of money boat may be up for sale soon. It's dependent on a house sale though, this has been agreed but is subject to survey (impossible right now) and legals etc.

I've actually just had an offer accepted on a much better boat than the Springer I was looking at, I'm afraid.  If it falls through, I'll be in touch! Good luck with everything!!

1 hour ago, Halsey said:

IMHO She doesn't have to go through the broker - she just has to (quite rightly) accept she must pay him.

 

you should be able to get info as to who did the plating then and poss the opportunity to talk to the surveyor.........

 

Got you back on track now...............?

Thank you! Yes, I did try to go this route but both broker and seller were unable to move forward. I've now found a much better boat for considerably more money. Fresh full survey and rather bullet-proof provenance. Watch this space!! I'm soon to be a 'ditch crawler!'! 

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We've just helped MIL complete the sale of her 45' trad NB, bought 27 years ago as a sailaway amd fitted out by my late FIL.  A lovely boat, in very good nick - sadly too small for us to take on.  The broker did a good job of managing the sale over the past month of Covid-19 restrictions and the result is a smooth (and gently-handled) sale with minimum stress for MIL, who is still grieving the loss of her husband.  It can be done.

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9 minutes ago, Sbg said:

We've just helped MIL complete the sale of her 45' trad NB, bought 27 years ago as a sailaway amd fitted out by my late FIL.  A lovely boat, in very good nick - sadly too small for us to take on.  The broker did a good job of managing the sale over the past month of Covid-19 restrictions and the result is a smooth (and gently-handled) sale with minimum stress for MIL, who is still grieving the loss of her husband.  It can be done.

Good to hear. Well done for helping out in a very stressful situation. The process to buy 'my boat' is starting today - two nights of lost sleep worrying about possible pitfalls but now all feels right now. 

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