Lockdown ? What Lockdown?

[nicknorman]

9 minutes ago, Higgs said:

 

It is CRT that should have set up an exclusion zone and not treated another sector of contributors as having more right to access of the towpath for use than a boater that has little other choice. 

 

No, that is the whole point. Everyone has equal right of access to the towpath. You are just wanting to do the typical live aboard boater thing and annex some public space for your personal and exclusive use. Tough, you can’t.

3 minutes ago, MartynG said:

Sitting outside in a public place does  seem to be against the advice (not sure its illegal) .  I don't think anyone would complain if you sit outside while on your boat.

 

The country walks we take have been well trodden and we have also noticed dog mess  and also some litter . A local couple were out with a litter  picking tool and had collected a large bag of stuff . 

 

We are avoiding the narrower paths as people are passing us too close , especially runners .

 

I do sympathise with people on boats feeling confined .  However  people shouldn't be criticised for wanting to take their walk along a canal. I expect the less sunny weather this week may see  a downturn in the number of people walking.

 

 

Yes you can sit outside on your boat, because you have not left your home. It is not the sitting outside that is illegal, it is leaving your home for the purpose of sitting outside that is illegal.

[Higgs]

6 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

No, that is the whole point. Everyone has equal right of access to the towpath. You are just wanting to do the typical live aboard boater thing and annex some public space for your personal and exclusive use. Tough, you can’t.

 

What is being realised is, common sense is working its way into the process. Sitting outside the boat in the middle of nowhere is not going to be a danger to anyone. And I bet you have a garden. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Higgs

[The Welsh Cruiser]

52 minutes ago, Parahandy said:

I must admit I get a bit bored by all this guilt being felt for the younger Generation , I have heard the same claptrap over BREXIT and that strange Thunberg kid . Personally I am looking forward to firing up the V12 , flying up the M1 with a good pair of brogues on and giving them all the Bird . Get out and get grafting thats my motto , feeling guilty achieves nothing .

I take your point. I also get bored with the notion that its the excessive lifestyles of older folk that have led to many of the problems the world faces. I didn't expect a 'gap year' travelling around the world when I was younger, I felt lucky if I had a couple of weeks in Ibiza. Eating out was unheard of and as for brand new cars; they were only for rich people.

 

I do think it's unfair though for the current generations to expect government spending on them to outstrip what they pay in, leaving the bill to be settled by those who currently have no part in the decision making process that brings this about.

 

Personally I don't have kids so maybe shouldn't give a toss, but I do. 

[frangar]

It seems that the cracks are fast appearing in the lockdown and unless the government want large scale civil unrest they need to appreciate that people just aren’t going to sit indoors forever and do as they are told... & I don’t blame anyone for deciding to do as they wish....there is risk in everything...I suggest if the evening news listed all deaths every night before this virus then some people would have been calling for stairs to be banned etc. 

[Alan de Enfield]

Words fail me - maybe they should be 'properly locked up'.

 

People from England have been issued with fines after driving to Penyfan and Snowdon to walk.

Officers stopped ten people in two separate cars who had driven in convoy from London to climb Wales' highest peak. They were all reported for breaching Covid-19 legislation.

 

In a statement, North Wales Police said: "We despair - we really do... Please, please, please stay home.

 

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/police-livid-english-walkers-arrive-18153724

[Parahandy]

11 minutes ago, frangar said:

It seems that the cracks are fast appearing in the lockdown and unless the government want large scale civil unrest they need to appreciate that people just aren’t going to sit indoors forever and do as they are told... & I don’t blame anyone for deciding to do as they wish....there is risk in everything...I suggest if the evening news listed all deaths every night before this virus then some people would have been calling for stairs to be banned etc. 

Well a couple of days ago on here I was questioning why the People of Wales were suddenly being presented with greater restrictions when the tone of the rest of the Country was one of re-emergence . I keep on saying , the same People who have been hiding under their Beds in order to save the NHS will now be expected to get back to work to save the Economy often with no PPE and certainly with no vaccination or testing and thats the reality . Only People like the Beckhams and Gordon Ramsay will continue to hide out in the Countryside as unlike the rest of us they have the financial means to do so .

Edited April 27, 2020 by Parahandy

[Higgs]

4 minutes ago, Parahandy said:

Well a couple of days ago on here I was questioning why the People of Wales were suddenly being presented with greater restrictions when the tone of the rest of the Country was one of re-emergence . I keep on saying , the same People who have been hiding under their Beds in order to save the NHS will now be expected to get back to work , often with no PPE and certainly with no vaccination or testing and thats the reality . Only People like the Beckhams and Gordon Ramsay will continue to hide out in the Countryside as unlike the rest of us they have the financial means to do so .

 

Easing of the lockdown is becoming very pressing. It has to be done with extreme caution, but I expect it will happen. Sooner than later.

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Higgs

[Parahandy]

47 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

Errr, because getting food is essential? Anyway, it is far safer to sit in a queue in your car, than to wander around a supermarket mixing it with the great unwashed!

You know that essential bit is a load of cobblers just like I do .

2 minutes ago, Higgs said:

 

Easing of the lockdown is becoming very pressing. It has to be done with extreme caution, but I expect it will happen. Sooner than later.

 

 

I totally agree and much of the rhetoric from some Scientists is very much against it .

[nicknorman]

25 minutes ago, Higgs said:

 

What is being realised is, common sense is working its way into the process. Sitting outside the boat in the middle of nowhere is not going to be a danger to anyone. And I bet you have a garden. 

I would agree that sitting outside the boat in the middle of nowhere is not going to be a danger to anyone. But, just like doing 80mph on an empty motorway, it is illegal. Personally I wouldn’t have an objection to, or “shop” someone sitting outside their boat in the middle of nowhere. But when those people demand other members of the public be kept away from them so they can illegally sit outside their boats, well that is really taking the piss and incredibly arrogant, selfish and NIMBYish.

 

Yes, I do have a garden thanks, those are the choices I made.

3 minutes ago, Parahandy said:

You know that essential bit is a load of cobblers just like I do .

I totally agree and much of the rhetoric from some Scientists is very much against it .

Well, setting aside you generalisation about fat people, food is essential. If you disagree, I suggest you go without eating for a couple of months and see how you get on. Do let us know - if you can.

Edited April 27, 2020 by nicknorman

[Sbg]

We live next to the A605 in East Northamptonshire.  There was a lot of "essential" motorbike traffic yesterday.... 

[Parahandy]

11 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

I would agree that sitting outside the boat in the middle of nowhere is not going to be a danger to anyone. But, just like doing 80mph on an empty motorway, it is illegal. Personally I wouldn’t have an objection to, or “shop” someone sitting outside their boat in the middle of nowhere. But when those people demand other members of the public be kept away from them so they can illegally sit outside their boats, well that is really taking the piss and incredibly arrogant and NIMBYish.

 

Yes, I do have a garden thanks, those are the choices I made.

Well, setting aside you generalisation about fat people, food is essential. If you disagree, I suggest you go without eating for a couple of months and see how you get on. Do let us know - if you can.

The opening of McDonalds Nick is not happening in order to provide essential food which is my point and without in any way patronising you , as an Educated man I know you dont believe that . These outlets are all Franchises and need to be making money for obvious reasons .

Edited April 27, 2020 by Parahandy

[Momac]

I do know people who are disregarding the advice , such a going out shopping more often than necessary , family members in and out of each others houses , kids being visited by separated/divorced  parent but not observing rules, elderly parents visiting . 

And this is very local to me so it must be widespread.

 

 

[Higgs]

19 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

I would agree that sitting outside the boat in the middle of nowhere is not going to be a danger to anyone. But, just like doing 80mph on an empty motorway, it is illegal. Personally I wouldn’t have an objection to, or “shop” someone sitting outside their boat in the middle of nowhere. But when those people demand other members of the public be kept away from them so they can illegally sit outside their boats, well that is really taking the piss and incredibly arrogant and NIMBYish.

 

Yes, I do have a garden thanks, those are the choices I made.

 

The mere presence of the public wandering through a very close space to your home is leading others to place the onus on the boater to give up the right to that area. It is not easy to expect someone to be cooped up in a steel tube for the sake of some other person's freedom to wander. 

 

The people, for whom the space outside the boat is being reserved, they are not likely to know how their taxes are used. The boater makes a choice to contribute to that privilege of use that the public are getting support to have.  

 

Try staying indoors for 3 weeks. 

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Higgs

[nicknorman]

1 minute ago, Sbg said:

We live next to the A605 in East Northamptonshire.  There was a lot of "essential" motorbike traffic yesterday.... 

yes the shackles are clanking! I have to say that the risk of virus spread from going to the pub, a party, even going to the supermarket, seems massively more than that posed by a bit of non-essential driving. Yes the argument is about “when you crash you will cause emergency workers to get up close and personal with you” but in the great scheme of things the risk is surely very small. And anyway, from what I’ve seen the police are some of the worst offenders when it comes to not social distancing, even when they are not scraping bodies off the road.

[The Welsh Cruiser]

1 minute ago, Higgs said:

 

The mere presence of the public wandering through a very close space to your home is leading others to place the onus on the boater to give up the right to that area. It is not easy to expect someone to be cooped up in a steel tube for the sake of some other person's freedom to wander. 

 

 

 

 

Get yourself a kayak, paddle to a quiet spot on the offside. Still technically illegal to sit there but common sense says it's OK, safer than sitting on the back of your boat with streams of coughing and spluttering joggers passing by.

[nicknorman]

2 minutes ago, Higgs said:

 

The mere presence of the public wandering through a very close space to your home is leading others to place the onus on the boater to give up the right to that area. It is not easy to expect someone to be cooped up in a steel tube for the sake of some other person's freedom to wander. 

Not easy of course, and I sympathise. You have just as much right to use that public space as everyone else. But no more right. You have the advantage of easily being able to take exercise at that location in the early morning or late evening (now we have much longer days) since it is right on your doorstep. I can’t imagine there is much footfall at 5am.

[The Welsh Cruiser]

2 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

yes the shackles are clanking! I have to say that the risk of virus spread from going to the pub, a party, even going to the supermarket, seems massively more than that posed by a bit of non-essential driving. Yes the argument is about “when you crash you will cause emergency workers to get up close and personal with you” but in the great scheme of things the risk is surely very small. And anyway, from what I’ve seen the police are some of the worst offenders when it comes to not social distancing, even when they are not scraping bodies off the road.

Driving a car is much safer than cycling. Perhaps cycling should be banned, in case the rider has a crash.

[Parahandy]

2 minutes ago, MartynG said:

I do know people who are disregarding the advice , such a going out shopping more often than necessary , family members in and out of each others houses , kids being visited by separated/divorced  parent but not observing rules, elderly parents visiting . 

And this is very local to me so it must be widespread.

 

 

30 Indians playing Cricket Friday Afternoon here in Milton Keynes , I walked past and saw a fellow dog walker on his phone so possibly he was summoning the Police or the Parks Trust

[nicknorman]

4 minutes ago, Parahandy said:

The opening of McDonalds Nick is not happening in order to provide essential food which is my point and without in any way patronising you Nick , as an Educated man I know you dont believe that . These outlets are all Franchises and need to be making money for obvious reasons .

McDonald’s never needed to close for takeaways, they only did it because they were concerned about being able to manage social distancing for their staff. I think you are conflating an essential need for food, with essential food. Do you think the government should produce a list of essential foods, maybe bread, milk, mince, tatties and some green stuff, and make everything else illegal to buy. Definitely avocados!

[frangar]

2 minutes ago, The Welsh Cruiser said:

Driving a car is much safer than cycling. Perhaps cycling should be banned, in case the rider has a crash.

The lanes between the marina & our work unit have become like the Tour de France round here...had a full & frank discussion with one Lycra idiot who thought he had a god given right to weave all over the road...

[Higgs]

16 minutes ago, nicknorman said:

Not easy of course, and I sympathise. You have just as much right to use that public space as everyone else. But no more right. You have the advantage of easily being able to take exercise at that location in the early morning or late evening (now we have much longer days) since it is right on your doorstep. I can’t imagine there is much footfall at 5am.

 

I understand what a mooring boater should have access to, I don't walk the towpath. The public have no idea - hardly.

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Higgs

[Captain Pegg]

I walk the towpath most days ?

[nicknorman]

Just now, Captain Pegg said:

I walk the towpath most days ?

Well you’re a very naughty boy (and not even the messiah). Allegedly!

[Higgs]

5 minutes ago, Captain Pegg said:

I walk the towpath most days ?

 

It's very tempting. ?

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Higgs

[Mike Todd]

On 25/04/2020 at 19:28, peterboat said:

At the moment it's the only plan in town that might work,  because their is no vaccine and at some point we need to exit lockdown 

But herd immunity (for COVID19) seems to require that around 80% of us have to have had the disease, recover and also retain some degree of personal immunity. None of these are great factors:

 

1. 80% infection based immunity will generate, based on the data from the early phases, a very large number of excess deaths (ie more than would have occurred for other reasons including age)

 

2. At present around 4%-6% have been infected. That number is lowered because of 'flattening the curve' so it will take quite a long time to reach the 80% level, even if there were no social distancing. It seemed that in the early phases the virus was spreading very quickly, with the number of COVID-related deaths being given much greater prominence in the media than for annual flu outbreaks. But that might have been because it was able to latch onto the more vulnerable (and we may not yet know what causes vulnerability) and spread via them first but may then slow down - or it might not. In this case, science needs time.

 

3. The protection afforded by infection based immunity is not yet proven (just as there is as yet no guarantee that there will ever be a vaccine)

 

Part of the 'new normal' might well be having, as a society, to live with a residual level of infection and adjust to whatever structure human society takes as a result. Over time we may even breed a degree of immunity, or at least greater tolerance to the virus with fewer cases of the COVID19 disease developing from it.

 

The uncertainties of all of this do not seem to have penetrated the minds of those politicians, commentators etc - or at least not until they have personally suffered from it. What change might arise if a prominent person died from COVID? 

 

One of the problems is that humans are not well adapted to dealing with stochastic events - our education and culture is all geared towards 'certainty'. How often have we heard the media response to a disaster being expressed in terms of 'They must never let this happen again'. (If you want to make this relevant to the forum, read what people have said about the Toddbrook Dam incident). Balancing different stochastic factors is not something we are naturally good at.

 

If 'science' has taught us anything over the past century and a half, it is that most of the world is built on stochastic events which just sometimes (as in Newtonian mechanics) have the semblance of certainty.

 

Question to ask yourself: if you knew with some reliability that you had, in an unconstrained world, a 1% chance of catching COVID within any one year period, and if you caught it you had a 5% chance of dying from or with it, would you self isolate and for how long?

 

My guess is that if such figures (if true) were well known then social distancing would disappear overnight. Change the numbers to 50% chance of catching it and 90% chance of dying, then none of us would ever venture out of doors and drone deliveries would be the new normal.

 

The reality is probably somewhere in between (which is when it becomes a political not a scientific issue) - so what numbers would you live with?