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8 hours ago, Ex Brummie said:

 Belgium has had the highest mortality rate per head in Europe despite having one of the smallest populations. 

While much of your post makes sense, the logic of this bit eludes me. 

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Just now, Athy said:

While much of your post makes sense, the logic of this bit eludes me. 

The virus has 'run riot' in Belgium compared to other European countries.

 

UK

Cases per million of the population = 2523

Deaths per million of the population = 394

 

Belgium

Cases per million of the population = 4186

Deaths per million of the population = 655

 

 

If we hadn't imposed our lockdown we could have been as badly affected as Belgium, &, we would have had 45,000 (known) deaths instead of our current 27,000 deaths.

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24 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

The virus has 'run riot' in Belgium compared to other European countries.

 

UK

Cases per million of the population = 2523

Deaths per million of the population = 394

 

Belgium

Cases per million of the population = 4186

Deaths per million of the population = 655

 

 

If we hadn't imposed our lockdown we could have been as badly affected as Belgium, &, we would have had 45,000 (known) deaths instead of our current 27,000 deaths.

 

Boris of course must be responsible there too - has he ever been to Belgium?  Not that would stop him getting the blame!  ;)

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

The virus has 'run riot' in Belgium compared to other European countries.

 

UK

Cases per million of the population = 2523

Deaths per million of the population = 394

 

Belgium

Cases per million of the population = 4186

Deaths per million of the population = 655

 

 

If we hadn't imposed our lockdown we could have been as badly affected as Belgium, &, we would have had 45,000 (known) deaths instead of our current 27,000 deaths.

Yes, but the bit I quoted still doesn't make sense.

I wonder what it is about Belgium? It's not a country habitually visited by hordes of overseas tourists who could bring the virus with them.

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34 minutes ago, Athy said:

While much of your post makes sense, the logic of this bit eludes me. 

 

The opposite is true too; IIRC USA has had a lot of deaths but a low death rate per thousand population.

Edited by mark99
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2 minutes ago, Athy said:

Yes, but the bit I quoted still doesn't make sense.

I wonder what it is about Belgium? It's not a country habitually visited by hordes of overseas tourists who could bring the virus with them.

 

 

It could be as simple as they report the figures more accurately.

Edited by mark99
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39 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

The virus has 'run riot' in Belgium compared to other European countries.

 

UK

Cases per million of the population = 2523

Deaths per million of the population = 394

 

Belgium

Cases per million of the population = 4186

Deaths per million of the population = 655

 

 

If we hadn't imposed our lockdown we could have been as badly affected as Belgium, &, we would have had 45,000 (known) deaths instead of our current 27,000 deaths.

It appears that Belgium has recorded every single death from CV19 even those that are not confirmed by a test so their death numbers are far higher than comparable numbers in Europe.

To bring them in line with the way others are counted you need to halve them.

Puts it more into perspective. 

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2 minutes ago, Loddon said:

It appears that Belgium has recorded every single death from CV19 even those that are not confirmed by a test so their death numbers are far higher than comparable numbers in Europe.

To bring them in line with the way others are counted you need to halve them.

Puts it more into perspective. 

 

But our '27,000' that I used for the UK is the ONS figure that counts every death that mentions C19 on the Death certificate - even those that have not been tested and are 'assumed' to have died from it / with it / because of it.

 

It should be a fairly close comparison, and now we are actually using the 'total deaths' and not just the NHS deaths, our figure are comparable to the rest of Europe.

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7 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

But our '27,000' that I used for the UK is the ONS figure that counts every death that mentions C19 on the Death certificate - even those that have not been tested and are 'assumed' to have died from it / with it / because of it.

Isn't the ONS data still running 2weeks behind ?

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On 28/04/2020 at 12:45, MHS said:

 

Ps I’d love to have seen Jeremy or Keir do much better

 

It's not about specific people, but it's beyond doubt that if Labour had been in power for the last 10 years we'd have been much better prepared.  Back in 2011 the Tories shut down the HPA, who were specifically tasked with preparing for an event like this.  They replaced it with nothing.  That why we had no stockpiles, no protocols, no plan. 

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1 hour ago, Loddon said:

Isn't the ONS data still running 2weeks behind ?

Still questions about the accuracy of Care Home deaths.

The Telegraph says it has used figure show they are actually 4x higher than reported.

 

Care home deaths could be four times worse than official figures suggest, with new analysis showing that more than 17,000 deaths in homes across the UK are linked to coronavirus.

At Wednesday's Downing Street briefing, the Government unveiled its improved daily reporting system, which includes clinically confirmed virus deaths in care homes and the community as well as hospitals, for the first time. 

The additional 3,811 deaths confirmed between March 2 and April 28 meant the total UK coronavirus death toll stood at 26,711 on Thursday.

It follows the publication of Care Quality Commission (CQC) figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday, which showed that as of April 24, 4,343 care home residents in England had either died of confirmed or suspected coronavirus.

 

Edited by Alan de Enfield
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2 hours ago, mark99 said:

 

The opposite is true too; IIRC USA has had a lot of deaths but a low death rate per thousand population.

The US is a huge country with a lot of natural social distance between populations. Also they have a great and dynamic leader............ 

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5 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

It's not about specific people, but it's beyond doubt that if Labour had been in power for the last 10 years we'd have been much better prepared.  Back in 2011 the Tories shut down the HPA, who were specifically tasked with preparing for an event like this.  They replaced it with nothing.  That why we had no stockpiles, no protocols, no plan. 

But David Cameron said the NHS was safe in his hands.....

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11 hours ago, Ex Brummie said:

Just about every E.U country has suffered as much as us. Not true. Our 'Yuman rites' laws stopped us closing borders. Not true.  He's never advocated 'herd immunity'.Yes he has.  His words for it were 'taking it on the chin', but it's the same thing. Selfish millenials have ignored lockdown. Do you even know what a millenial is?  The evidence points to boomers and zoomers bein most likely not to comply with the lockdown.  So again, not true. We've not been short of ventilators like some EU countries eg Italy, who did not have hospital capacity. Where was the E.U then?Irrelevant. Belgium has had the highest mortality rate per head in Europe despite having one of the smallest populations. Size of outbreak is far more correlated with population density than overall population.  So again - irrelevant. Every man in the world, and his dog,  has been buying PPE, The biggest supplier of which is one of the most affected countries. The fact remains that our government failed to buy PPE when they had the chance.  They tried to blame it in 'missing the email', until that was revealed to be a lie.  We're doing as well as any country. Depends on how you measure that.  We're on course to have more deaths than any other country other than the USA.  Despite our relatively small size. A fairer comparison would be with countries of a reasonably similar population and similar capital city in term of size and population density.  South Korea would be a good comparison then.  Now go and look at how they have done.  His involvement with government exposed him to inconsiderate carriers. He exposed himself to it.  3rd March he was shaking hands with coronavirus patients in hospital.  Nobody made him do that. He's back now and bouncing.

He is not making vacuous promises like the poisoned dwarf in Scotland. Can you give some examples of the vacuous promises the scottish first minister has made? (Can't we find a full face mask with a gag for her). Her pronouncements are only what is included in the daily press briefing. The broadcasters and journalists asking questions daily should listen to the briefing before formulating their questions. I wish the respondents would preface their answers with 'as just explained'.

What has he done right?

a. Flattenned the curve We the people have done that.  People were already distancing and shielding before he stepped in.  The people have led on this, and the government has followed.

b. Reduced the 'R' rate See above.

c. Provided facilities for treatment. ( nevertheless, critics are now calling this white elephants) Every country in the world provides treatment and facilities.  That's hardly a big win.

d. Supported industries and workers to a great extent and is continuing to modify schemes to catch the drop through. He may even modify it to exclude the likes of Victoria Beckham who has never made any profit or contribution with her hobby company, or Richard Branson who has sufficient to fund his companies. I'll kind of give you that one in principle, although all of the government schemes (furloughing, school meal vouchers) have had significant teething problems with many people missing out or being forced to wait for unacceptable times for payment.

e. Shown commitment to the cause we all need to, even at risk to himself.  As I said above, he put himself at needless risk.  That's not commitment, it's stupidity and bravado.

 

I'm sure we'll now see you trying to revive the anti brexit  sentiment. Let's pull together constructively; the Daily Mail has done positive things with PPE, and the promised deadline about testing will be met, or as near as dammit. Reliable antibody testing is not yet available anywhere, but I believe we will be at the forefront with that. Our research laboratories are well advanced with vaccines and treatments. Let's be positive for a change

 

See above.  Try again maybe?

19 minutes ago, Stilllearning said:

But David Cameron said the NHS was safe in his hands.....

What like that dead pig?

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35 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

 

 He's never advocated 'herd immunity'.Yes he has.  His words for it were 'taking it on the chin', but it's the same thing. 

Bloody herd immunity again!!!!!

"Taking it on the chin" is not the same thing as herd immunity, it's not close, it's not even in the same ballpark. Google it. If you don't like herd immunity then I presume that if a vaccine is developed you will refuse it and encourage others to do the same.

Here and now I will go on record as absolutely and completely advocating herd immunity. I can do this with a clear conscience because I know what it means.

 

Remember, if what you say is not what you mean, it's what you say that you are judged on. That's a good reason to understand the terms you use. Anyone opposed to herd immunity is a hateful sociopath in favour of mass death continuing into the future for years to come. Before anyone replies against herd immunity, GOOGLE IT!

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In the field behind our house we're used to seeing 40 or more rabbits munching on the grass every evening.  This year, not a single one.  I guess they never acquired the required herd immunity against RHD2...

 

 

 

Edited by WotEver
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27 minutes ago, Sir Nibble said:

Bloody herd immunity again!!!!!

"Taking it on the chin" is not the same thing as herd immunity, it's not close, it's not even in the same ballpark. Google it. If you don't like herd immunity then I presume that if a vaccine is developed you will refuse it and encourage others to do the same.

Here and now I will go on record as absolutely and completely advocating herd immunity. I can do this with a clear conscience because I know what it means.

 

Remember, if what you say is not what you mean, it's what you say that you are judged on. That's a good reason to understand the terms you use. Anyone opposed to herd immunity is a hateful sociopath in favour of mass death continuing into the future for years to come. Before anyone replies against herd immunity, GOOGLE IT!

Sorry, but having studied epidemiology at post grad level at a Russell Group university I am well aware of what herd immumity is.  When Boris spoke about taking it on the chin, he was advocating allowing the disease to spread unchecked through the population, thereby building an antibody response in individuals and creating a herd immunity.  I'm not sure what you've been googling but your exceptionally simplistic comment "Anyone opposed to herd immunity is a hateful sociopath in favour of mass death" speaks volumes.  Herd immunity in itself is a reasonable ambition, the question is how it's acheived.  Unchecked spread a la 'taking it on the chin' is a spectacularly poor choice.  Boris suggested this when, at the time, he clearly had no clue what he was talking about.

 

So please don't accuse me of saying things I didn't say.  I never said I don't like herd immunity.  Such a staggeringly simplistic position is not one I would ever take.  So therefore don't 'presume' what my postion on vaccination is based on you putting uncalled-for words in my mouth.

 

I will re-state:  Back in March, Boris was clearly pushing an agenda of herd immunity through unchecked spread of the virus.  Each of the other points I made against Ex Brummie's post I stand behind too.

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