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TheBiscuits

Lockdown! Part 2

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It seems we could be getting ready for another round of lockdown bingo.

 

CRT have just been in touch to cancel our booking in Liverpool in mid June, so I don't think they are expecting to be open by then.  It's not a great surprise, but it is 3 months away and they are just cancelling everyone.

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2 minutes ago, TheBiscuits said:

It seems we could be getting ready for another round of lockdown bingo.

 

CRT have just been in touch to cancel our booking in Liverpool in mid June, so I don't think they are expecting to be open by then.  It's not a great surprise, but it is 3 months away and they are just cancelling everyone.

I hope it doesnt take that long to open the world up as I am in a poxy house which I came to sell and the estate agents quite rightly aint working innitt 😕

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Same with the Ribble Link.

 

I got a phone call this afternoon cancelling our booked crossing in May.

The chap at the other end said they are cancelling all bookings three months in advance.

 

That's the second time we've been bowled for the Ribble. We were booked to cross a few years back when that culvert collapsed on the Rufford Arm.

 

I'm wondering if someone, somewhere is trying to tell us something.

:unsure:

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I'm cancelling paying my license.

 

There's not really a lot of other choices right now.

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I guess if CRT cancel everything they could lay off a load of staff, get the government to pay 80% of the wages. Boaters still have to pay all their charges, all, or at least most of their other revenues should be unaffected. Come year end, big profit for CRT, big bonuses for their executives. What's not to like? 

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2 minutes ago, The Welsh Cruiser said:

Come year end, big profit for CRT, big bonuses for their executives.

 

Since CRT is a charity, it cannot make a profit. 

It might have a surplus on its account, though.

 

I've paid my licence up to December 2020, so I'm expecting to get a big chunk of 2021 for nothing, but we shall see.

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1 hour ago, mrsmelly said:

I hope it doesnt take that long to open the world up as I am in a poxy house which I came to sell and the estate agents quite rightly aint working innitt 😕

 

It will be 18 months to two years before all this stops, according to the Imperial College report on which the gummint are basing their strategy.

 

Most peeps who know about this stuff seem to agree that's how long it will take one way or another, to get a grip on it.

 

 

 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, The Happy Nomad said:

Good luck with that.

I don't think I'll need luck. CRT will be barely functioning by the summer.

 

There's never been a better time to get to a sump pound.

7 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

It will be 18 months to two years before all this stops,

I say two years minimum. Even if/when the infection curve is brought down, it'll only take a relaxation of the restrictions to make it rise again. This is only just beginning.

Edited by Izz

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Just what we need a "Part 2" topic to keep us all in good spirits - IMHO anything with a 2 etc after it is never as good as the original.

 

I'm working on the premise that we will at least be allowed on our boat (even if we cant cruise) in July and that's keeping me going...…………………………………….. 

Edited by Halsey

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18 minutes ago, Machpoint005 said:

 

Since CRT is a charity, it cannot make a profit. 

It might have a surplus on its account, though.

 

I've paid my licence up to December 2020, so I'm expecting to get a big chunk of 2021 for nothing, but we shall see.

Sure, my language was slack. Charities are just like other denominations of business in that they often pay executives bonuses based on KPI's. Profit is often a KPI for higher ranked executives in 'for profit' businesses, I don't see any reason why a surplus on its account wouldn't be a KPI for executives of charities. I don't know for sure though, perhaps performance parameters are different for charities. Does anyone know?  

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39 minutes ago, Izz said:

 

I say two years minimum. Even if/when the infection curve is brought down, it'll only take a relaxation of the restrictions to make it rise again. This is only just beginning.

 

Well there seems to be a it more to it than that. 

 

At the moment the plan is to lift the foot off the brake briefly in a month or two once the infection rate "appears" to be falling, then when it starts racing up again then put the brakes on hard for another couple of months. Keep doing this until the vaccine testing has finished and found safe/effective. OR, some other strategy for controlling it gets developed e.g. copy what they have done in S Korea.

 

Lots of calm and dispassionate analysis by this bloke here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIp8DxCdoBo&feature=youtu.be

 

 

 

Edited by Mike the Boilerman
Clarify.
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21 minutes ago, Halsey said:

Just what we need a "Part 2" topic to keep us all in good spirits - IMHO anything with a 2 etc after it is never as good as the original.

WE can do a prequel if you like....

 

Which plague or pestilence shall we cover? 

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22 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

Well there seems to be a it more to it than that. 

 

At the moment the plan is to lift the foot off the brake briefly in a month or two, once the rate "appears" to be falling then put the brakes on hard again for another couple of months. Keep doing this until the vaccine testing has finished and found safe/effective. OR, some other strategy for controlling it gets developed e.g. copy what they have done in S Korea.

 

Lots of calm and dispassionate analysis by this bloke here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIp8DxCdoBo&feature=youtu.be

 

 

 

The guaranteed (only viable)strategy for controlling covid19 is the same as for any other virus.  Develop and maintain herd immunity.  Either sufficient folk have to get it and recover or sufficient folk have to be vaccinated.  At gthe moment there is no vaccine, and thus no vaccination possibility, so a lot of folk need to get if and recover.

 

The current farting about is about ensuring the rate of development of serious cases, and serious side effect cases remains just  low enough for the NHS to cope and avoiding the political fall out that collapse of the NHS would cause.  It is sacrificing both the economy and speedy development of herd immunity to that end.  It may,  by delaying  herd immunity,  even cause more deaths, but you would need a lot of epidemiological  data and a few epidemiologists to analyse that possibility properly.

That said, BoJo is beggared if he does, and beggared if he doesn't, whatever he does.  

 

N

 

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10 minutes ago, BEngo said:

The guaranteed (only viable)strategy for controlling covid19 is the same as for any other virus.  Develop and maintain herd immunity. 

 

As I understand it there are other ways.

 

1) Depress the "reproduction rate" R down below 1. This is the goal of telling everyone to stay inside and stop travelling about.

 

2) Identify, trace and isolate. Test EVERYONE and see who has it and who doesn't, and who has antibodies. Let those with antibodies go back to work, or train them to take care of those who are ill with it. Or both. Properly quarantine those with it, symptoms or not. Trace everyone they have been in contact with, and quarantine them too.

 

3) I think there is a third but I can't remember it!

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15 minutes ago, BEngo said:

The guaranteed (only viable)strategy for controlling covid19 is the same as for any other virus.  Develop and maintain herd immunity.  Either sufficient folk have to get it and recover or sufficient folk have to be vaccinated.  At gthe moment there is no vaccine, and thus no vaccination possibility, so a lot of folk need to get if and recover.

 

The current farting about is about ensuring the rate of development of serious cases, and serious side effect cases remains just  low enough for the NHS to cope and avoiding the political fall out that collapse of the NHS would cause.  It is sacrificing both the economy and speedy development of herd immunity to that end.  It may,  by delaying  herd immunity,  even cause more deaths, but you would need a lot of epidemiological  data and a few epidemiologists to analyse that possibility properly.

That said, BoJo is beggared if he does, and beggared if he doesn't, whatever he does.  

 

N

 

I think the govt were shown a forecast of 200,000 UK deaths plus the overwhelming of NHS within weeks, this was seen to be unacceptable, and shook the government in to action.

Not sure why facemasks are not yet freely [as in free] available.

Edited by LadyG

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5 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

3) I think there is a third but I can't remember it!

 

I've remembered it! 

 

3) Make EVERYONE wear masks when out in public. The countries that do this have a R of about half that of those (inc the UK) that don't.

 

 

Trouble is, the gummint don't have the option of 2) or 3), as they sat on their hands doing nothing when they had the time to get manufacturing the massive stock of test kits and face masks needed for those options. .  

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1 hour ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

It will be 18 months to two years before all this stops, according to the Imperial College report on which the gummint are basing their strategy.

 

Most peeps who know about this stuff seem to agree that's how long it will take one way or another, to get a grip on it.

 

 

 

 

 

You like poxy houses, I will do ya an honest deal innitt. I doubt it will be 18 months before they allow some stuff like house buying again?? 😕

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9 minutes ago, mrsmelly said:

You like poxy houses, I will do ya an honest deal innitt. I doubt it will be 18 months before they allow some stuff like house buying again?? 😕

 

You are still allowed to buy houses now. 

 

I'll give you £50k for it right now, sight unseen if it gets you out of. hole. Stitching meself right up, paying that much for it, but y'know, mates an all that :)

 

 

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1 minute ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

You are still allowed to buy houses now. 

 

I'll give you £50k for it right now, sight unseen if it gets you out of. hole. Stitching meself right up, paying that much for it, but y'know, mates an all that :)

 

 

Ill pass on the offer, but thanks you big hearted old softie :P The estate agent we instructed simply rang and cancelled the visit to do the piccies and list the property. I cant see that viewing houses is classed as essential journey is it??????

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5 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

You are still allowed to buy houses now. 

 

I'll give you £50k for it right now, sight unseen

250?cb=20061224003237

 

How many would you like? :D

 

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3 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

I hope it doesnt take that long to open the world up as I am in a poxy house which I came to sell and the estate agents quite rightly aint working innitt 😕

yet every day I see properties appearing on Rightmove, Zoopla and OnTheMarket in the areas I used to work in. It's vaguely possible that every one of them had its details and photos prepared before the shutdown, but I would find that hard to swallow as the days go by.

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1 minute ago, mrsmelly said:

Ill pass on the offer, but thanks you big hearted old softie :P 

 

That's what they all say. All heart, me...

 

2 minutes ago, mrsmelly said:

I cant see that viewing houses is classed as essential journey is it??????

 

Of course not. That's why I offered to buy it without seeing it. I mean, like, houses are all much the same, seen one, ya seen 'em all don'tcha think!

 

 

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1 minute ago, Richard10002 said:

yet every day I see properties appearing on Rightmove, Zoopla and OnTheMarket in the areas I used to work in. It's vaguely possible that every one of them had its details and photos prepared before the shutdown, but I would find that hard to swallow as the days go by.

They were coming on tuesday to do the biz but cancelled so I assume they are closing but havnt checked. My missus reckons shes seen a list saying its not allowed????????

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