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LadyG

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3 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

Blimey Dave 12 or 24 months? 

China has already removed their shutdown of woo thingy an peeps now allowed to move freely. 24 months of this and there quite simply would be anarchy. 

Yes it is not impossible, a mass vaccination program might take 18 months, or more, slowing the spread, flattening the curve would affect mortality rates and lengthens the timescale. Political pressure will ramp up if the disease slows down, medics will be pessimistic, politicians will be selective.

Chinese Wuhan outbreak : could be the Darwin factor. Those who are released today may be disease free today, but one may be a carrier. It may be a month before the cracks appear, it might be OK, but it's not guaranteed.

New York is rammed with people, more so than London, NY is probably relatively rich, but it has rapidly become an epicentre, with a highly mobile population, it is relying on voluntary self isolation. Trump imagines a normal, Happy Easter, let hope he's right, his career is on the line.

 

Edited by LadyG
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15 minutes ago, churchward said:

What about Spain, Norway, Switzerland, France, Netherlands and Germany to name a few other countries in Europe?  All who are suffering in a similar or greater way just now to the UK

 

They do have a few percentage older population in Italy but this is far from the whole story or just a statistical adoration and outlier. Italy has a world class health service prior to the virus they had nearly 3 times the ITU bed capacity of the UK per 100k of population.  They had a very good level of intensive care both in equipment and trained staff.

 

I am not a particular fan of Johnson or his politics but the government is doing as much as they can and are spending big to help people through this. This is also not that different to every other country having to face this challenge.  I agree we will all have to pay for this spending at some point but that is not a feature of the current government we would be facing the same no matter what the flavour of politics was in number 10.

 

Please do not politicise this thread start a new topic in the right place if you want to do that.

 

 

Have i touched a raw nerve? My comment is no more a political statement than the tone of conversation beforehand and i'll thank you to keep your demands to yourself until you join the admin team.

 The provision of intensive care in the affected areas do not reflect that available nationwide in Italy. 

 The balance of finance available to combat the virus here is heavily skewed towards business which however admirable is premature, there is no end date for the virus and as such many will flounder again if the period is of a extended duration. 

 

Edited by BWM
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We already have a vaccine, it is the testing of it that takes the time and is really hard to do it quickly. My shallow understanding of the three testing phases are as follows:

 

Phase 1) The vaccine is given to fit and healthy peeps to see if there are any unacceptable side effects. Is we skipped this phase and gave a new vaccine directly to infected people, unanticipated side effects might kill them while not being fatal to fit people. Assuming good results, move on to phase 2.

 

Phase 2) Vaccine given to a variety of ill people. Similar to above. Make sure ill people are not made more ill by receiving the vaccine.

 

Phase 3) Statisticaslly test for the vaccine actually having a positive effect and stopping/reducing the virus. Pointless rolling it out if it doesn't have a beneficial effect. 

 

Each of these three phases takes about six months, apparently.

 

 

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From "the other thread", but very relevant to the discussion going on here -- yes it's going to be next year *at the earliest* before the UK gets "back to normal" ?

Edited by IanD
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8 hours ago, LadyG said:

I'll need to go out for milk as there was none yesterday, it won't make any difference to anyone which shop I go to for fresh milk as at the moment I have only seen B&Q / Screwfix  taking sensible precautions.

 

I don't think B&Q and Screwfix sell milk.

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4 minutes ago, BWM said:

 i'll thank you to keep your demands to yourself until you join the admin team.

 

 

The admin team, or this member of it at least, sees Churchward's post as a polite request, not in any sense a demand. So, there is no need to thank him, but he has every right to express this view.

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6 minutes ago, BWM said:

Have i touched a raw nerve? My comment is no more a political statement than the tone of conversation beforehand and i'll thank you to keep your demands to yourself until you join the admin team.

 The provision of intensive care in the affected areas do not reflect that available nationwide in Italy. 

 The balance of finance available to combat the virus here is heavily skewed towards business which however admirable is premature, there is no end date for the virus and as such many will flounder again if the period is of a extended duration. 

 

No just countering your ill-informed post.  The point still stands that if you want a political discussion start a new thread.

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16 hours ago, LadyG said:

I don't think I need to justify my actions to anyone. I told you, I have expertise, I saw this coming, I have not allowed any contagious virus in to my home. I am high risk, I'd need to use 999 if I could not breath.

 

Absolute nonsense.  How do you intend to get to Ripon without exposing yourself of others to risk?  What is your expertise, are you a professor of epidemiology or public health who somehow knows better than anyone else.  I suspect I am FAR more qualified in this area than you, and would happily show you a copy of my MSc in this particular area, but I'm not moving anywhere, so I can't.

 

You are being selfish, it's as simple as that.

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2 minutes ago, churchward said:

No just countering your ill-informed post.  The point still stands that if you want a political discussion start a new thread.

In your opinion, if you had offered any factual information i would  be able to agree or disagree but to be honest it just comes across as pompous in the absence of the above. 

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14 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

To be fair Lady G is not a hobby Boater. The majority on here are hobby boaters that are locking down in a house with all its space etc. It's much harder on the confines of a boat and in the middle of nowhere I can see the appeal for her as a full time Boater. 

If she was simply heading for the nearest middle of nowhere but she has stated a trip from Goole to Ripon. That's the problem.

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2 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

Absolute nonsense.  How do you intend to get to Ripon without exposing yourself of others to risk?  What is your expertise, are you a professor of epidemiology or public health who somehow knows better than anyone else.  I suspect I am FAR more qualified in this area than you, and would happily show you a copy of my MSc in this particular area, but I'm not moving anywhere, so I can't.

 

You are being selfish, it's as simple as that.

pm

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6 hours ago, LadyG said:

I think one of the reasons I wanted to get out of here is to reduce my chance of infection from nearby folks who mix with many others, it was like a bank holiday here on Monday! This was before the official "stay in house" warning, or The Big CRT Decision, but after a series of Boris Broadcasts. 

If I now get the disease from them it will be most unpleasant, to some extent life-threatening, and really infuriating. I've been taking precautions but there is not much more I can do, without becoming a hermit, which would not really help me, long term.

There are visitor moorings just 50 metres from here, but they have been occupied by the same c/moorers for the last three weeks, and presumably now permanently. 

All we are doing is flattening the disease curve to allow the NHS to catch up, I don't think much more can be done if tubes and trains are still rammed with people. People who have seen images from Italy and other places  realised things were out of control and rushed out to buy bog rolls, I bought some yesterday, but just a few, rather thin ones!

 

Then go further down the Aire and Calder and find a quiet spot to stay away from other boats.  Don't 'sod Boris' and go to Ripon.

4 minutes ago, LadyG said:

pm

No pm received.  I see that you've now revised your plans though.

4 hours ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

Its well understood and basic epidemiology. Fully understood by both us and by the Chinese. 

 

 

Not understood by the US President though

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3 hours ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

I am probably not understanding. Take the top line.

 

1 person infects 2.5 people in five days. So on day 5, a total of 3.5 people are now infected.

 

So on day 10, each of those 3.5 will have infected another 2.5 people. A total of 3.5 x 2.5. Total 8.75.

 

On day 15, each of those 8.75, plus the preceding 3.5 will have infected 12.25 x 2.5 people. Total 30.625.

 

On Day 20, each of those 30.625 plus the preceding 8.75, will have infected 39.375 x 2.5 people. Total 98.4375.

 

On day 25, each of those 98.4375 plus the preceding 39.375 will have infected 137.8125 x 2.5 people. Total 344.53125

 

On day 30, each of those 344.53125 plus the preceding 137.8125 people will have infected 482.34375 x 2.5 people. Total 1,205.

 

 

This is based on the fact that recovered victims remain infective for a while after recovery. 32 days is the figure I have seen.

 

 

Your analysis is slightly wrong.  The first person infects 2.5 people in total.  They don't infect 2.5 people every 5 days. So your second line should start "So on day 10, each of the 2.5 newly infected people will infect..."  It's an inexact approximation though since it assume that each infected person goes on to infect 2.5 more within the first 5 days.  The principle is sound though.

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15 minutes ago, doratheexplorer said:

If she was simply heading for the nearest middle of nowhere but she has stated a trip from Goole to Ripon. That's the problem.

I asked about a trip to Ripon, no particular timescale, it is Silver Propellor, ie little used, very few locks. Very few boaters and no CRT notification, some of it is commercial, I don't see CRT closing locks to commercial traffic.

Edited by LadyG
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4 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

Blimey Dave 12 or 24 months? 

China has already removed their shutdown of woo thingy an peeps now allowed to move freely. 24 months of this and there quite simply would be anarchy. 

From what I saw on the news it wasn't freely.

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34 minutes ago, ditchcrawler said:

From what I saw on the news it wasn't freely.

I'm in a poxy house expecting to have to live in the damn thing for up to 3 months. No way am I stopping in it longer than that ?

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38 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Not a term I've come across, would you be kind enough to provide a link or source of this 'rating'.

sorry, https://www.waterways.org.uk/search/?q=silver propeller challenge

a challenge to encourage use of lesser used waterways

Edited by LadyG
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4 hours ago, BWM said:

In your opinion, if you had offered any factual information i would  be able to agree or disagree but to be honest it just comes across as pompous in the absence of the above. 

I did, read my post again about Italy's health care system.

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Even without covid-19 restrictions, I would suggest more experimenting before venturing onto rivers to be confident nothing will fail. I understand you have 40+ boaty years but not with your current boat, which isn't new and hasn't been moving. I'm still not confident everything on our boat is up to extended cruising after 9 months. On the face of it, it should have been fine but now have a growing list of repairs that, had they happened on a river, could have been a lot more serious. Little used boats give reassurance on short runs but as soon as something more demanding comes along, things start failing. If your boat has been doing this kind of work, then it may well be OK but a change in usage pattern (from nothing to full-on) is asking for trouble. Have you checked what's in your fuel tank as well as the 100lt of fuel? If driven hard, does the cooling system cope? Oil leaks, water leaks, throttle and gear cables? Any remaining dodgy electrics? This has got to be a consideration as well as health, because a breakdown in the middle of nowhere will surely involve a 3rd party?

/G

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