Time to go

[LadyG]

In the light of all the outrage , I'll revise plans, I did not see this as travel as in the public transport London [no commuters] sense, plus it now seems likely CRT will close locks anyway so planA postponed till things calm down. I'll need to go out for milk as there was none yesterday, it won't make any difference to anyone which shop I go to for fresh milk as at the moment I have only seen B&Q / Screwfix  taking sensible precautions. Not sure if they will stay open in the long term anyway.

Lets hope nearby boat doesn't get it after their family gathering on board on Monday, there is not much infection in this county, but most people have no idea about disease control, and did not get much precationary advise when the disease was identified six or more weeks ago. It was always going to come to the UK, the civil service has people whose job it is to warn the government, I have no doubt they were warned.

I am not sure how long we will be locked in, likely it would need to be months, and it may not work anyway.

CRT have not returned my calls this week. I don't know if the message got through, unlikely.

The call centre is open,  on both occasions I got through they asked if I wanted to buy a licence! I realise not everyone can use the internet, but that is all the people in the call centre know,  they are not sure if  I am in the north east or north west, and  if they did they don't know the phone numbers anyway. I prompted them by asking for a Leeds number. I had to spell out Aire and Calder but only to explain my query related to that area, I wanted to contact CRT directly, but they don't let anyone know their numbers, except emergency numbers, local boaters know the numbers, of course, but I am trying to use the official channels. A waste of time.

PS I've been boating for forty years, just not on the Aire and Calder. I previously had a Boatmaster Licence

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by LadyG

[blackrose]

14 hours ago, doratheexplorer said:

Sorry to be harsh but this proposal is utterly selfish, I would have thought better from the OP.  Lots of us would love to go cruising but we aren't.  Non-essential travel has been ruled out by the government - this is quite clearly non-essential travel.  This is a classic case of entitlement and 'the rules don't apply to me'.  And you say you're an expert in disease control???  So let presume you already have the virus but don't know it - how do you propose to get yourself from Goole to Ripon without touching anything on the way or once you get there?  Using the excuse that we've been told to stay at home and therefore you can move about like this because your boat is your home is appaling pedantry.  You know damn well that's not what the advice means and you're using a technicality to try and dodge round the rules.  The 14 day rule has been relaxed for a reason - it's to try and prevent all non-essential boat movements, but allow boaters to still access vital services. 

 

People are dying because of selfish attitudes like yours.  I'm frankly disgusted.

 

Well said! 100%

[LadyG]

2 hours ago, blackrose said:

 

Well said! 100%

I think one of the reasons I wanted to get out of here is to reduce my chance of infection from nearby folks who mix with many others, it was like a bank holiday here on Monday! This was before the official "stay in house" warning, or The Big CRT Decision, but after a series of Boris Broadcasts. 

If I now get the disease from them it will be most unpleasant, to some extent life-threatening, and really infuriating. I've been taking precautions but there is not much more I can do, without becoming a hermit, which would not really help me, long term.

There are visitor moorings just 50 metres from here, but they have been occupied by the same c/moorers for the last three weeks, and presumably now permanently. 

All we are doing is flattening the disease curve to allow the NHS to catch up, I don't think much more can be done if tubes and trains are still rammed with people. People who have seen images from Italy and other places  realised things were out of control and rushed out to buy bog rolls, I bought some yesterday, but just a few, rather thin ones!

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by LadyG

[mrsmelly]

9 hours ago, dmr said:

If she is going into the wilderness to be alone and with good supplies, then its not a big risk or problem, not like a load of Londoners all descending on a little Cornish shop.,   But, this could easily be a 12 or even 24 month problem and you need a very big boat to carry supplies for that long.

 

.............Dave

Blimey Dave 12 or 24 months? 

China has already removed their shutdown of woo thingy an peeps now allowed to move freely. 24 months of this and there quite simply would be anarchy. 

[MtB]

Just now, mrsmelly said:

Blimey Dave 12 or 24 months? 

 

24 months actually. 

 

The pressure is on to reduce the 'power of transmission' to near of below 1.0 because we don't have a vaccine. It takes 18 months to test and prove safe the vaccines just developed, then we need to manufacture 20m doses and stick them all into 20m people. Once done, the govt can take its foot off the brake.

 

 

[mrsmelly]

2 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

24 months actually. 

 

The pressure is on to reduce the 'power of transmission' to near of below 1.0 because we don't have a vaccine. It takes 18 months to test and prove safe the vaccines just developed, then we need to manufacture 20m doses and stick them all into 20m people. Once done, the govt can take its foot off the brake.

 

 

Ya best tell the Chinese right quick. 

[MtB]

The reproductive rate of C-19 has been between 2.5 and 3, meaning each infected person is infecting 2.5 to 3 other people so far. All this isolation is aimed at reducing that value, to below 1.0 ideally, but any reduction at all is a Good Thing. If left at 2.5 then millions will have C-19 all at the same time and tens of thousands will have to be left to die as we don't have enough ventilators.

 

The goal is to slow the spread of it down, so the NHS gets to treat all those people over a couple of years rather than them all coming at once. 

 

 

[MtB]

5 minutes ago, mrsmelly said:

Ya best tell the Chinese right quick. 

 

Its well understood and basic epidemiology. Fully understood by both us and by the Chinese. 

 

 

[Alan de Enfield]

8 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

The reproductive rate of C-19 has been between 2.5 and 3, meaning each infected person is infecting 2.5 to 3 other people so far. All this isolation is aimed at reducing that value, to below 1.0 ideally, but any reduction at all is a Good Thing. If left at 2.5 then millions will have C-19 all at the same time and tens of thousands will have to be left to die as we don't have enough ventilators.

 

The goal is to slow the spread of it down, so the NHS gets to treat all those people over a couple of years rather than them all coming at once. 

 

 

I thought the schematic being used to make the point was effective.

 

If person "A" is infected and carries on as normal, he will infect 2.5 people, if they carry on as normal they will each infect 2.5 people repeat, repeat so that after 30 day over 400 people are now infected.

 

The alternatives :

 

If person "A" had reduced his 'going out and socialising' by 50% then only 15 people would be infected after 30 days.

 

If person "A" stays in isolation, no one else is infected.

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Alan de Enfield

[mrsmelly]

27 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

Its well understood and basic epidemiology. Fully understood by both us and by the Chinese. 

 

 

The reason they are lifting their travel ban must be to do with public order problems. 2 years of lock down here would simply not work and they obviously have the same problems there. 

[MtB]

29 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

I thought the schematic being used to make the point was effective.

 

If person "A" is infected and carries on as normal, he will infect 2.5 people, if they carry on as normal they will each infect 2.5 people repeat, repeat so that after 30 day over 400 people are now infected.

 

The alternatives :

 

If person "A" had reduced his 'going out and socialising' by 50% then only 15 people would be infected after 30 days.

 

If person "A" stays in isolation, no one else is infected.

 

 

 

 

I am probably not understanding. Take the top line.

 

1 person infects 2.5 people in five days. So on day 5, a total of 3.5 people are now infected.

 

So on day 10, each of those 3.5 will have infected another 2.5 people. A total of 3.5 x 2.5. Total 8.75.

 

On day 15, each of those 8.75, plus the preceding 3.5 will have infected 12.25 x 2.5 people. Total 30.625.

 

On Day 20, each of those 30.625 plus the preceding 8.75, will have infected 39.375 x 2.5 people. Total 98.4375.

 

On day 25, each of those 98.4375 plus the preceding 39.375 will have infected 137.8125 x 2.5 people. Total 344.53125

 

On day 30, each of those 344.53125 plus the preceding 137.8125 people will have infected 482.34375 x 2.5 people. Total 1,205.

 

 

This is based on the fact that recovered victims remain infective for a while after recovery. 32 days is the figure I have seen.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Mike the Boilerman
Adjust the format

[Alan de Enfield]

2 minutes ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

I am probably not understanding. Take the top line.

 

1 person infects 2.5 people in five days. So on day 5, a total of 3.5 people are now infected.

 

So on day 10, each of those 3.5 will have infected another 2.5 people. A total of 3.5 x 2.5. Total 8.75.

 

On day 15, each of those 8.75, plus the preceding 3.5 will have infected 12.25 x 2.5 people. Total 30.625.

 

On Day 20, each of those 30.625 plus the preceding 8.75, will have infected 39.375 x 2.5 people. Total 98.4375.

 

On day 25, each of those 98.4375 plus the preceding 39.375 will have infected 137.8125 x 2.5 people. Total 344.53125

 

 

This is based on the fact that recovered victims remain infective for a while after recovery. 32 days is the figure I have seen!

 

 

On day 30, each of those 344.53125 plus the preceding 137.8125 people will have infected 482.34375 x 2.5 people. Total 1,205.

 

 

 

Makes sense so maybe they are working on some of them dying off and not continuing spreading it ?

 

If correct, it makes the point even stronger.

[MtB]

2 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Makes sense so maybe they are working on some of them dying off and not continuing spreading it ?

 

 

Mortality rate is approx 1%

 

Average time from infection to death (when death results) is 17 days.

 

So not enough to significantly affect my arithmetic.

[Jennifer McM]

52 minutes ago, mrsmelly said:

Blimey Dave 12 or 24 months? 

China has already removed their shutdown of woo thingy an peeps now allowed to move freely. 24 months of this and there quite simply would be anarchy. 

This is the bit that's worrying. The virus is now travelling (aparently) round the world (for the winter), it'll come back in the autumn and probably with vengeance as it did with the Spanish Flu, with probably some antigenic drift (I'm no scientist)

 

Think this is one of the best explanations I've seen

 

 

 

[Tacet]

1 hour ago, Mike the Boilerman said:

 

I am probably not understanding. Take the top line.

 

1 person infects 2.5 people in five days. So on day 5, a total of 3.5 people are now infected.

 

So on day 10, each of those 3.5 will have infected another 2.5 people. A total of 3.5 x 2.5. Total 8.75.

 

On day 15, each of those 8.75, plus the preceding 3.5 will have infected 12.25 x 2.5 people. Total 30.625.

 

On Day 20, each of those 30.625 plus the preceding 8.75, will have infected 39.375 x 2.5 people. Total 98.4375.

 

On day 25, each of those 98.4375 plus the preceding 39.375 will have infected 137.8125 x 2.5 people. Total 344.53125

 

On day 30, each of those 344.53125 plus the preceding 137.8125 people will have infected 482.34375 x 2.5 people. Total 1,205.

 

 

This is based on the fact that recovered victims remain infective for a while after recovery. 32 days is the figure I have seen.

 

 

Good question.  I suspect it has something to do with your maths assuming the each person infects no-one for four days, then doing the full 2.5 persons on the fifth day, and then infecting no more altogether.  Probably a bit more spread out in practice.

[dmr]

1 hour ago, mrsmelly said:

Blimey Dave 12 or 24 months? 

China has already removed their shutdown of woo thingy an peeps now allowed to move freely. 24 months of this and there quite simply would be anarchy. 

You can easily get a copy of the paper (written by Imperial college) that the government are basing their policy on, though this might possibly be an amended version for public consumption ?. Their current modelling suggests partial lockdown till the end of 2021. We just have to hope a vaccine comes along well before that.

They are suggesting periods of lockdown, followed by an easing where the virus increases again, then another lockdown etc etc to keep within the NHS capacity, and that we will be locked down for about 2/3 of the time.

 

................Dave

[Fender151]

So my better arf is Nurse working in GP surgery, sadly smarter than Moi, we were discussing the social distancing ting and she ended my disouse with, "Its not the Virus that moves, it's people that move the virus"  end of. 

 

My only recourse was to use physical superiority, needs must.

Stay safe all 

[BWM]

2 hours ago, mrsmelly said:

Blimey Dave 12 or 24 months? 

China has already removed their shutdown of woo thingy an peeps now allowed to move freely. 24 months of this and there quite simply would be anarchy. 

They have relaxed on the shutdown, amid stringent testing and many other controls. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by BWM

[Alan de Enfield]

14 minutes ago, BWM said:

They have relaxed on the shutdown, amid stringent testing amd many other controls. 

 

Trump is saying they will lift all their restrictions by Easter as there will be more deaths (shootings, suicide, domestics, mental problems) that there will be if the virus is left to 'roam free'.

His press conference included 'No one is going to tell me to shut down the most important country and worlds biggest economy'.

 

But, as usual his tone changes a little when he has looked at things again.

 

Mr Trump also warned that unless the country reopened for business it could suffer "a massive recession or depression".

The president said: "You're going to lose people. You're going to have suicides by the thousands. You're going to have all sorts of things happen. You're going to have instability."

Speaking at a White House briefing later, Mr Trump said he was beginning "to see the light at the end of the tunnel", though he said "our decision will be based on hard facts and data".

Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading expert on infectious diseases and a member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told the same press briefing: "No-one is going to want to tone down anything when you see what is going on in a place like New York City."

 

State Governors are taking a very different line.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Alan de Enfield

[WotEver]

3 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Trump is saying they will lift all their restriction by Easter as there will be more deaths (shootings, suicide, domestics, mental problems) that there will be if the virus is left to 'roam free'.

No one is going to tell him to 'shut down the most important country and worlds biggest economy'.

I briefly read yesterday that WHO were saying that the USA is about to become the world epicentre of Covid-19

 

What did anyone expect, with an idiot in charge of the country who thinks he knows better than anyone else?

[BWM]

12 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

Trump is saying they will lift all their restrictions by Easter as there will be more deaths (shootings, suicide, domestics, mental problems) that there will be if the virus is left to 'roam free'.

His press conference included 'No one is going to tell me to shut down the most important country and worlds biggest economy'.

 

But, as usual his tone changes a little when he has looked at things again.

 

Mr Trump also warned that unless the country reopened for business it could suffer "a massive recession or depression".

The president said: "You're going to lose people. You're going to have suicides by the thousands. You're going to have all sorts of things happen. You're going to have instability."

Speaking at a White House briefing later, Mr Trump said he was beginning "to see the light at the end of the tunnel", though he said "our decision will be based on hard facts and data".

Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading expert on infectious diseases and a member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told the same press briefing: "No-one is going to want to tone down anything when you see what is going on in a place like New York City."

 

State Governors are taking a very different line.

 

 

Both Trump and Johnson suffer from a mixture of arrogance and stupidity, the cost of these two populist icons will only become clear in a few months time, but the statistics already expose their inept handling of the crisis compared to much less affluent nations with better leadership and compliant populations.

  Italy can be seen in a different light, as i suspect their circumstances are governed by an unfortunate dynamic. A perfect storm of a generally older population in good health has meant the need for extensive emergency care has been low, so a sudden rush of vulnerable casualties with low provision of intensive care is their hiatus. 

[MtB]

7 minutes ago, WotEver said:

I briefly read yesterday that WHO were saying that the USA is about to become the world epicentre of Covid-19

 

What did anyone expect, with an idiot in charge of the country who thinks he knows better than anyone else?

 

No, that's Brazil, surely?

 

Trump is quite susceptible to reason and evidence compared to that nice President Bolsonaro:

 

Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has accused his political foes and the press of purposefully “tricking” citizens about the dangers of coronavirus, as Latin America braced for a spike in the number of deaths.

The pandemic has claimed nearly 15,000 lives across the globe and looks set to exact a deadly toll on Latin America in the coming weeks, with many regional governments closing borders and shutting down major cities in a desperate bid to limit the damage.

But Bolsonaro has resisted such drastic measures, dismissing media “hysteria” over coronavirus and calling the illness “a little flu”.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-says-coronavirus-crisis-is-a-media-trick

 

His views on the fiction of climate change are equally myopic, IIRC.

 

 

 

[churchward]

16 minutes ago, WotEver said:

I briefly read yesterday that WHO were saying that the USA is about to become the world epicentre of Covid-19

 

What did anyone expect, with an idiot in charge of the country who thinks he knows better than anyone else?

I saw that too.  It is a big country with some large population centres there case total is rising quite quickly now but in terms of total cases they have quite a way to go to get pass the total for Europe.

 

Trump seems to think he can say something is true and by magic or some such it becomes true. If he does as he suggested he could be signing he country up for big trouble.

[churchward]

9 minutes ago, BWM said:

Both Trump and Johnson suffer from a mixture of arrogance and stupidity, the cost of these two populist icons will only become clear in a few months time, but the statistics already expose their inept handling of the crisis compared to much less affluent nations with better leadership and compliant populations.

  Italy can be seen in a different light, as i suspect their circumstances are governed by an unfortunate dynamic. A perfect storm of a generally older population in good health has meant the need for extensive emergency care has been low, so a sudden rush of vulnerable casualties with low provision of intensive care is their hiatus. 

What about Spain, Norway, Switzerland, France, Netherlands and Germany to name a few other countries in Europe?  All who are suffering in a similar or greater way just now to the UK

 

They do have a few percentage older population in Italy but this is far from the whole story or just a statistical adoration and outlier. Italy has a world class health service prior to the virus they had nearly 3 times the ITU bed capacity of the UK per 100k of population.  They had a very good level of intensive care both in equipment and trained staff.

 

I am not a particular fan of Johnson or his politics but the government is doing as much as they can and are spending big to help people through this. This is also not that different to every other country having to face this challenge.  I agree we will all have to pay for this spending at some point but that is not a feature of the current government we would be facing the same no matter what the flavour of politics was in number 10.

 

Please do not politicise this thread start a new topic in the right place if you want to do that.

 

 

[dmr]

50 minutes ago, BWM said:

They have relaxed on the shutdown, amid stringent testing and many other controls. 

Yes, this might fit in with the Imperial modelling. Unless they can somehow maintain the virus at a low level then they will likely have to do another lockdown at a later date. We can only hope that as we get better at handling things the lock downs might be a bit less draconian.  The Chinese state can do things that our population might not co-operate with.

 

...............Dave