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Alan de Enfield

First Two Cases Of Coronavirus Confirmed in UK

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41 minutes ago, billS said:

4.5 BILLION deaths?? 

 

Feb 2020 world populaton = 7.8 billion

60% infection rate = 4.68 billion infected

 

So only if it had 96% mortality rate. It will need to mutate a bit.

You are correct - 4.5 million deaths

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15 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

You are correct - 4.5 million deaths

Assuming they all died within the course of a year, that would increase the death rate by just over 8%, but in reality a fair chunk of the victims would die in that year anyway as many will be the oldest and sickest within the population.

 

 

 

 

Edited by billS

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23 minutes ago, billS said:

Assuming they all died within the course of a year, that would increase the death rate by just over 8%, but in reality a fair chunk of the victims would die in that year anyway as many will be the oldest and sickest within the population.

 

 

 

 

Yes I've heard that overall the mortality rate is 100%

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Its now in prison

 

A prisoner who is being tested for coronavirus at a British prison had been transferred from a jail in Thailand, it has been reported.

Two prisoners are being tested for the virus at HMP Bullingdon, near Bicester, Oxfordshire, and are being kept in isolation in their cells. The prison has a capacity of 1,114 inmates. According to reports, the prison wing where the men lived is in lockdown for at least 72 hours while checks are made.

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2 hours ago, Arthur Marshall said:

Viruses that kill everyone they infect are failures and die out quickly. The most successful virus just makes you a bit poorly, like a cold, so you spread it about - that's all a virus is programmed to do. It just wants to live and propogate. This is a political panic largely because the Chinese got such a hammering over SARS. Every step taken so far has been guaranteed to make matters worse and ensure more infections - which is what happens when you let idiot politicians run stuff that should be run by medical experts. But politics, especially in a system like China, dominates - as it probably will here with the current set of clowns ("we've had enough of experts") in charge.

 

So the medical experts telling us that we can expect up to 4.5 billion dead are right then? and the Chinese government telling us that only 1k have died and 50k are infected are wrong?

Sorry Arthur If I was the Chinese government I would be doing the same, after this is over they have a business to run [as long as they have workers] I would contain it and sacrifice a smaller number so the majority would survive its common sense! If they lifted travel restrictions all of China would be infected and what if the mortality figures are wrong and its a 90% death rate? Hard decisions sometimes have to be made and clearly we disagree on them time will tell who is correct

Edited by peterboat

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1 hour ago, journeyperson said:

Yes I've heard that overall the mortality rate is 100%

that's awful.    that means we are all gonna die one day.   what a bad old world we live in.

 

  • One of the proofs of immortality is that so many have believed it.  They also believed the world was flat.  (Mark Twain)
  • Millions long for immortality who don’t even know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon.    (Susan Ertz)

 

2 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

You are correct - 4.5 million deaths

even AdE suffers from Diane Abbott syndrome from time to time   :unsure:

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21 hours ago, Murflynn said:

I'm sure you are aware that flu is not like smallpox - each year a different strain is identified and a new vaccine is required.  Flu vaccination has little or nothing in common with smallpox vaccination.  The NHS has never attempted to vaccinate the whole population against 'seasonal flu' - only those at risk of developing complications and possible death (like babies and old folk).

(snip)

Plus those more at risk of infection and of spreading it, and essential and emergency personnel. I guess the first category is more bang per buck, while the second is insurance! :cheers:

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5 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

The suggestions are that its' ease of transmission' results in high number being infected, is there any difference (to those affected) if it has a 10% mortality rate and 10 million are affected, or a 1% mortality rate and 100 million are affected. The end figure is still 1 million deaths.

 

As has been previously mentioned - a Hong Kong health expert suggests that at current rates it could affect  60% of the population and result in 4.5 BILLION deaths.

I think he said "million deaths."

 

Mind you, 4.5 billion would stave off the global warming crisis for a bit ...

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6 hours ago, Alan de Enfield said:

Its now in prison

 

A prisoner who is being tested for coronavirus at a British prison had been transferred from a jail in Thailand, it has been reported.

Two prisoners are being tested for the virus at HMP Bullingdon, near Bicester, Oxfordshire, and are being kept in isolation in their cells. The prison has a capacity of 1,114 inmates. According to reports, the prison wing where the men lived is in lockdown for at least 72 hours while checks are made.

I said that several pages ago

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2 minutes ago, sueb said:

I said that several pages ago

Well he doesn't have it apparently but a guy in London does! That's if the news is correct 

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45 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Ah, the Chinese have realised that they were testing the wrong way and cases/deaths have jumped.

The news seemed to be positive: The number of new coronavirus cases reported in China over the past week suggested that the outbreak might be slowing — that containment efforts were working.

But on Thursday, (today) officials added more than 14,840 new cases to the tally of the infected in Hubei Province alone, bringing the total number to 48,206, the largest one-day increase so far recorded. The death toll in the province rose to 1,310, including 242 new deaths.

The sharp rise in reported cases illustrates how hard it has been for scientists to grasp the extent and severity of the coronavirus outbreak in China, particularly inside the epicenter, where thousands of sick people remain untested for the illness.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/coronavirus-cases-seemed-to-be-leveling-off-not-anymore/ar-BBZWxM0?ocid=spartandhp

Edited by Alan de Enfield
Edit to add the link for those doubters.
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1 hour ago, matty40s said:

Ah, the Chinese have realised that they were testing the wrong way and cases/deaths have jumped.

 

1 hour ago, Alan de Enfield said:

The news seemed to be positive: The number of new coronavirus cases reported in China over the past week suggested that the outbreak might be slowing — that containment efforts were working.

But on Thursday, (today) officials added more than 14,840 new cases to the tally of the infected in Hubei Province alone, bringing the total number to 48,206, the largest one-day increase so far recorded. The death toll in the province rose to 1,310, including 242 new deaths.

The sharp rise in reported cases illustrates how hard it has been for scientists to grasp the extent and severity of the coronavirus outbreak in China, particularly inside the epicenter, where thousands of sick people remain untested for the illness.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/coronavirus-cases-seemed-to-be-leveling-off-not-anymore/ar-BBZWxM0?ocid=spartandhp

So the figures were wrong all along just like we said Alan, anyway I will wait and see how this pans out! In the meantime I think I will continue stocking up, it wont waste :)

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14/2/20

 

Figures continue to grow, latest overnight from China :

 

  • Some 121 new deaths were recorded yesterday, as well as 5,090 fresh cases
  • Numbers have been rising since Hubei officials changed way they diagnose
  • Now almost 64,000 confirmed cases in mainland China, of which 1380 died.

 

There are now almost 64,000 confirmed cases in mainland China after the country recorded 5,090 new cases yesterday

 

 

 

The National Health Commission said 121 more deaths were recorded, taking toll to 1,380

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

14/2/20

 

Figures continue to grow, latest overnight from China :

 

  • Some 121 new deaths were recorded yesterday, as well as 5,090 fresh cases
  • Numbers have been rising since Hubei officials changed way they diagnose
  • Now almost 64,000 confirmed cases in mainland China, of which 1380 died.

 

There are now almost 64,000 confirmed cases in mainland China after the country recorded 5,090 new cases yesterday

 

 

 

The National Health Commission said 121 more deaths were recorded, taking toll to 1,380

 

 

I like the bit where cases are rising due to change in way of diagnosis is carried out ! In other words we have been fiddling the numbers,  we will never know the truth which is a shame as it might buck up peoples attitudes towards this catastrophe that is happening 

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6 minutes ago, peterboat said:

I like the bit where cases are rising due to change in way of diagnosis is carried out ! In other words we have been fiddling the numbers,  we will never know the truth which is a shame as it might buck up peoples attitudes towards this catastrophe that is happening 

 

Ignoring the fact that many are recent diagnosis that have yet to go 'full-term', the mortality rate on the headline figures alone is 2.2%.

It is impossible to estimate the mortality rate until the cases of infection cease

 

If no more became affected, the deaths would still continue - who knows how many ?

Edited by Alan de Enfield

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1 hour ago, peterboat said:

I like the bit where cases are rising due to change in way of diagnosis is carried out ! In other words we have been fiddling the numbers,  we will never know the truth which is a shame as it might buck up peoples attitudes towards this catastrophe that is happening 

They're now counting the number of people reporting symptoms, which may not be due to the virus. Previously they were only counting cases where tests had shown infection. So the current count is bound to be higher. It's partly because previously they weren't allowing people into hospital unless they'd tested positive,and they didn't have enough kit to test everyone so were turning away possibly infected people back into the community. A combination of a system with inefficiency built in, a desire to save face and please the boss rather than do the job properly, a fear of being arrested if you actually told an unwelcome truth, panic , and a centralised authoritarian government ignorant of the facts and unwilling to face them.

Bit like ours, really, apart from the arresting bit. Our leaders just try to get them beaten up a bit. Or they just lose their job.

Edited by Arthur Marshall

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4 minutes ago, Arthur Marshall said:

 

Bit like ours, really, apart from the arresting bit. Our leaders just try to get them beaten up a bit. Or they just lose their job.

anecdotal evidence for that ??

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15 minutes ago, Arthur Marshall said:

They're now counting the number of people reporting symptoms, which may not be due to the virus

 

You must be watching very different news  to me.

 

They are now using CT scans to identify the Coronovirus on the Lungs, before they are added to the 'infected' list.

Previously they had simple a test (but ran out of testing kits) which is why they missed so many.

 

Image result for ostrich head sand

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1 hour ago, Alan de Enfield said:

 

You must be watching very different news  to me.

 

They are now using CT scans to identify the Coronovirus on the Lungs, before they are added to the 'infected' list.

Previously they had simple a test (but ran out of testing kits) which is why they missed so many.

 

Image result for ostrich head sand

arthur has a different newsfeed to the rest of the world.  :unsure:

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1 hour ago, Murflynn said:

arthur has a different newsfeed to the rest of the world.

Maybe @Arthur Marshall should read this :

 

 

So far the fatalities are quite low. Why are health experts so worried about it? 

Speaking at a briefing in January, Oxford University professor, Dr Peter Horby, said: 'Novel viruses can spread much faster through the population than viruses which circulate all the time because we have no immunity to them.

'Most seasonal flu viruses have a case fatality rate of less than one in 1,000 people. Here we're talking about a virus where we don't understand fully the severity spectrum but it's possible the case fatality rate could be as high as two per cent.'

If the death rate is truly two per cent, that means two out of every 100 patients who get it will die. 

'My feeling is it's lower,' Dr Horby added. 'We're probably missing this iceberg of milder cases. But that's the current circumstance we're in.

'Two per cent case fatality rate is comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 so it is a significant concern globally.'

How dangerous is the virus?  

The virus has so far killed 1,383 people out of a total of at least 64,441 officially confirmed cases – a death rate of around two per cent. This is a similar death rate to the Spanish Flu outbreak which, in 1918, went on to kill around 50million people.

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