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mayalld

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Everything posted by mayalld

  1. Or Saturdays now. RM have suspended Saturday letter delivery
  2. Some admin work weekends, some don't. You do know that "The NHS" isn't actually a single organisation don't you? Different NHS Trusts will do different things.
  3. It has been observed that there has never been a better time to bump somebody off, say "they had a fever and cough" and get them up the chimney before anybody asks questions.
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  6. Sorry, but did you actually LOOK at the graph including care homes? There is a steady but slow downward trend, that expands back before the "need to catch up" period in all settings, and quite a pronounced downward trend if we exclude care homes.
  7. The number of tests being carried out is increasing massively, but the number testing positive is declining slowly. If you double the number of tests, and the number positive stays flat, that means that the rate of infections has halved.
  8. Well, if you look at todays graphs, which include care homes, the deaths ARE declining. Not as fast as if you exclude care homes, but the are still coming down.
  9. Yes, even with the nursing home figures, it has been falling
  10. Looking at the 5 tests; 1) NHS able to cope [MET] - The NHS has sufficient capacity to handle even a reasonably significant upswing. 2) Consistent and sustained fall in death rates [MET] - The death rate has been falling for 3 weeks (exactly as predicted by the modelling when we went into lockdown) 3) Rates of infection falling to manageable levels [MET] - despite an increase in testing, the number of new infections is consistently falling. 4) Sufficient Supplies [NOT MET] - sufficient testing capacity should be sorted very soon, and then it really rests on getting an adequate supply of gowns. 5) Confident that adjustments won't cause a second peak [NOT MET] - the tracing app will be the key here. So, on that basis, I would suspect that as soon as they get the PPE sorted, and a percentage uptake of the app, we can see movement. Beyond that, I expect the carrot that if more people use the app, lockdown can be eased further, and that certain businesses will be allowed to open if the restrict access based on showing clear on the app.
  11. Will it? Care homes are a discrete area, and the death figures are likely to mean more stringent steps there, but not in the wider community. I would note that the static or slightly declining infection rate is despite an increase in testing, so in truth speaks to a fair downturn in infections.
  12. The trouble is that there is a plan. That plan is not being shared for a number of reasons; If they share the plan people will change behaviours ahead of the scheduled dates. The timing of each step of the plan isn't fixed in stone, only what the steps are. If they publish anything, then make a change the media will scream blue murder.
  13. The trouble with this is that this is a very simplistic view of the situation. "If we all stay in lockdown for longer, less people will die". I can see the appeal of that being true, because it makes the decisions so much easier. The trouble is that it isn't true. Lockdown reduces deaths largely because it reduces the number who have the virus at one time, such that everybody can receive treatment. Consequently nobody dies for want of treatment. Unless you can maintain lockdown until there is a vaccine or effective medication (which doesn't seem likely) a lockdown of excessive severity doesn't help at all. So, at all times, they need to maintain things so that the NHS can cope. No more, no less. The reason for that is that maintaining a lockdown CAUSES other deaths; Suicides People not diagnosed with cancer in time People whose life prolonging cancer treatment is postponed. People whose economic circumstances are badly affected and become poorer, and whose lifespan is reduced. Children whose education is affected, and who will be at a disadvantage through life and become poorer. Lockdown will need to be eased soon, otherwise the cure may kill more people than it saves.
  14. I wish that I shared your optimism! However, I rather suspect that there will be a much longer game played here. Realistically, with the natives getting restless and lockdown fatigue, there will need to be some movement at the next 3-weekly review. It may well be a small movement. One of the issues that the government has to handle is that we are not an authoritarian regime, and that they largely steer the country rather than drive it. Notwithstanding the media reports of people breaching lockdown, compliance has been FAR greater than they expected. That greater compliance is probably due to waiting for a few days longer at the start, so that when they announced it those whose lives were to be affected were begging to be locked down, rather than resenting it. Not only has compliance been well over the target, but there has been a large degree of public pressure to go beyond the rules, and a woeful lack of understanding of what the rules are. This has resulted in many businesses that were allowed to stay open closing because the PR impact of staying open was a bigger threat. So, I would expect that 11th May could see the re-opening of non-essential shops, but NOT those establishments listed in Parts 1 and 2 of the regulations (Leisure, Recreation, Grooming and Hospitality), subject to social distancing. Schools will, I expect, return after half term (beginning of June), but probably only part time to stagger classes and allow distancing. Hair Salons and Barbers are probably going to return at the same time. This is a difficult one, because it is really hard to control the infection risk, but equally we cannot go forever without hair cuts. Other Leisure, may return in July, and at that time, use of the canals might be opened up again. Hospitality is probably going to be August/September with restrictions, and possibly not fully open until Christmas.
  15. Although CRT are portraying it as "too little water at the start of the season". That is, to avoid any doubt, a blatant LIE. At the public meetings held before COVID-19 raised its head, they were VERY VERY clear that the 3 remaining reservoirs were spilling. https://canalrivertrust.org.uk/refresh/media/thumbnail/41688-april-2020-reservoir-watch.pdf tells us that 74.3% is what 3 full reservoirs looks like. As of mid-April there is 68.7% Now, given the limited resources for the next 3 years and the potential need to close later in the year if too much water is used now, there is sense in closing the locks completely at a time when there is very little justification for using them, so that there might actually be water if we get any boating done later in the year. However, they need to be HONEST. The Toddbrook report is critical of their maintenance, and here we see evidence of further failure to maintain. I understand that the feed from Combs has been poor for years, and that they have done nothing about it. I really do suspect that the end is nigh for CRT
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  20. And Italy 09-March 463. UK 23-March 335. If its a blip, its a 2-day blip. Let's hope!
  21. A person is guilty of theft if he dishonestly appropriates property belonging to another with the intention of permanently depriving the other of it; and “thief” and “steal” shall be construed accordingly. Theft Act 1968 The moorer has no absolute right to moor. What right he has devolves upon him by virtue of a contract entered into with the Marina Owner and is contingent upon the terms of that contract.
  22. Well, if you were to accuse a marina or CRT of theft, that would be defamatory, because they have not stolen anything
  23. You have made many previous posts. None of them have made any sense.
  24. Nope, you signed a contract in its totality. You don't get to decide that you don't like some bits of it after the event. Or rather you can, but the marina owner can then decide that he doesn't like the bit about you being allowed to moor there.
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