That is one way of looking at it. Another, and using your figures, is that one person in every 264, will die of this virus. If I look at my family, I have two sisters, and if we count me, them, our ascendents and decedents, and all of our partners, there are about 30 of us. My wife’s family the same. Thus I have approximately 60 close relatives. That means that about one in four family networks are going to be attending a funeral sometime soon (or not so soon given the backlog at the undertakers).
Of course you figures, suggest the worst, no one does anything scenario. Or, in a completely bonkers kind of way, we could all try and do something.